AVZ Discussion 2022

[Mouthpiecenomnom]

Here is a post I hope you will find interesting as I asked Grok and ChatGPT about their analysis of the situation.

KoBold reportedly has $1B USD in cash now, prepared to invest that into Manono according to the numerous news articles.
That would translate into 0.43 AUD/share, far below AVZ's "fair value". If Nigel and the team truly are negotiating towards a "fair value", it would equate to a higher price.
I did some research with Grok (X AI) and ChatGPT because I was interested in their analysis. What I find interesting about their analysis is that it has changed a lot since the last time I asked. Around December this year, I wrote a bit with Grok, and it believed a takeover (TO) would be put around 0.30–0.40 cents/share. Even though the price/share is still undervalued in my opinion, it shows that we are going in the right direction with a resolution hopefully within 6–12 months, IMO.

Grok believes fair value sits between 1.35–1.50 AUD and believes this will be the TO price.
ChatGPT believes fair value is 0.70–1.00 AUD with a TO in this area as well.
For curiosity's sake, I used the AI to calculate what different TO cash offers would result in price/share:

• 1B USD = 0.43 AUD
• 2B USD = 0.85 AUD
• 3B USD = 1.28 AUD/share
• 4B USD = 1.70 AUD
• 5B USD = 2.13 AUD

I also asked Grok to find out how this could get financed if we were to receive a 4–5B USD TO since KoBold currently lack the reqcuired cash for such a deal. Here is the analysis:


Most Likely Approach
KoBold will likely use a combination of strategies. A realistic scenario might involve:
Raising $2–$3 billion USD through a new equity round, leveraging their high-profile investors and the strategic importance of lithium.
Securing $1–$2 billion USD in debt or government-backed financing, especially if U.S.-DRC negotiations progress.
Partnering with a major miner or battery company for the remaining $1–$2 billion USD, sharing the project’s risks and rewards.
Is this the part where CATH comes in, LOL?


Finally, I also asked if Grok and ChatGPT believe KoBold will offer more than 1B USD for curiositys sake?

REPLY
Yes, KoBold is likely to offer more than $1 billion USD for AVZ Minerals' 75% stake in the Manono lithium project. The current $1 billion USD offer is significantly below the estimated fair value of $5.15–$7.09 billion USD, which could lead to backlash from AVZ shareholders. Shareholder unrest and threats of a class action lawsuit may pressure KoBold to increase their offer to avoid delays or legal challenges. The DRC government might also push for a higher amount to approve the deal, given the project's strategic importance. KoBold’s financial capacity and strategic motivations, backed by U.S. government support, make it feasible for them to offer $2–$4 billion.

Hey mate, for fun can you ask the ai if it is likely to include Kobold shares in the deal? I think that would be pretty sweet.

 

[Spikerama]

Hey mate, for fun can you ask the ai if it is likely to include Kobold shares in the deal? I think that would be pretty sweet.

Hey mate, for fun, why don't you fucking ask it? You know... just for fun. That would be pretty sweet.

 

[Mouthpiecenomnom]

G'day Lollipop,

I'm pretty sure the $1billion is to invest in building the mine, not to buy us out. Please check.

Cheers,
Nells xx

Yes this is how I interpreted it. In the mining industry "investing" has different connotations and implies development above ground.

 

[obe wan]

Not sure how I feel about the AVZ update — feels a bit underwhelming. Maybe I’m just being impatient after three years of this mess.
Either way, I’m stepping back from social media for a bit. Hope everyone enjoys their weekend. Fingers crossed for another update in a couple of weeks.

The announcement reads as if NF is saying hey hold on Kobold ; you forgot a couple of words from your announcement I.e ‘non Binding’ . Kobold never mention the ‘non blinding’ part; Kobold doesn’t have very deep pockets without reaching out to its high profile investors and issuing pretty serious bulk shareholdings of the company in exchange for the cash NF considers ‘fair’.

Kobolds likely trying to pass it out to the market that terms have been agreed, so no need for any other entities need approach, you’ve missed the boat ; fanning away any potential approaches by others

AVZs ann today pretty much say the gates still ajar with the ‘non binding’ statement . Kobold clearly grinding away for a cheap deal I’d say.

If according to Kobolds announcement yesterday ; FT is on board with flogging this thing to a US entity … then roll up other suitors ; any yank suitor / possibly western will do … DRC have shown their hand and the agreement between AVZ & Kobold is not binding

 

[memem2323]

Quick question, how would I get access to my shares again ? these went to automotic or something ?

If I dont have the letter with new hih number whats the best course of action ?

Ive been meaning to do this but just been a bit busy and I keep an eye on this from time to time. But with the newer developments I was like shit I better get my hands on these again.

 

[Spikerama]

Quick question, how would I get access to my shares again ? these went to automotic or something ?

If I dont have the letter with new hih number whats the best course of action ?

Ive been meaning to do this but just been a bit busy and I keep an eye on this from time to time. But with the newer developments I was like shit I better get my hands on these again.

There's no such thing as an HIH number. It's either a HIN or an SRN.

Check your share statement from your broker or trading platform from when you bought the shares. It will have a HIN or and SRN clearly marked on it. This is what you need to lodge it on to Automic. https://www.automicgroup.com.au/automic-registry/

Get your HIN or SRN and go in there and follow the steps. It's guided. Should be golden after that.

 

[Charbella]

Felix proposed a minerals-for-security deal with the U.S., and Trump is on the cusp of delivering peace agreements. But where are the minerals Felix promised? As far as I’m concerned, Manono -the world’s largest hard rock lithium deposit is the only project ready to launch immediately. It’s the crown jewel and a major win waiting to be claimed by the Trump administration.

Kobald is clearly keen to lock in Manono—you can feel the urgency and desperation in their announcement. But there’s one sticking point: the price on the table doesn’t move Nigel. It’s just enough to open the door to negotiations, nothing more. If Kobald and the U.S. are serious about securing control over lithium supply for decades to come, it’s time to get serious about value. $3.50 AUD per share is the price to pay.

 

[JAG]

 

[Xerof]

test test

 

[rocknrolla]

I swear some people want us to get fuck all for this

This prick, KoBold stooge, not worth a dollar

 

[BRICK]

View attachment 84119

AH YES THEYRE BACK!

 

[ptlas]

Todays ann is obviously just a forced ann to combat all the emails/calls they would of been getting demanding an update. It's a whole lot of nothingness, with nothing in it we didn't already know.

All I read into it is, yes yes the yanks security for minerals bs that the fat fuck is pushing for to save his rotten corrupt arse is a wonderful thing if we can make some money out of it and it also clearly helps corrupt billionaires in America exploit Africa a bit more too, so we are trying to nut out a deal with Kobold who are throwing typical slimey opportunistic lowball Gates offers at us right now that are attached with some snakey clauses, so there is no offer that we've accepted yet but talks are continuing, and we are not stupid, so we are attempting to keep good relations with CATH at the same time in hope those traitors might put in a counter offer.

The wait continures, but well played Nige.

Ohhh oops, I mean Felix is not corrupt and hasnt embezzled $8b in bribe money into offshore accounts that have been frozen, Gates is not a psychopath who has already killed thousands of Africans, CATH have been great partners who definitely handed over the $240m imminently whilst waiving the pre-requisite of the ML like they said they would and they did not attempt to overthrow the entire board whilst putting in monthly delays to ensure that they did not follow through on their word. Who'd I miss, oh yes yes, Celeste is skinny and malnourished and just needed $5m worth of snacks, and there's no way it was for coke, hookers and real estate, so they should definitely be compensated for their loss as well, whilst Zijin did not bribe Celeste to steal our asset which Comminiere have been told to pay EUR$40m for as an upfront part payment for their corruption.

On a side note, who said we've added nothing of value since $1.35SP? what? as others have said the resource has been updated significantly, also now the risk factor for a yank company has dropped signficantly(which in turn makes this more valuable to anyone who wants it), and we've also won EUR$40m in damages case and pretty much every other court case since. So, yeah , nah, there's been a helluva lot more value added since then, therefore $12 mofo's.

You forgot to add that this also a geostrategic play with essentially indefinite control of the world lithium market AND with expected lithium price rises.
There was a post earlier, @Skar , with a value of AUD250 billion + multiples more unproven.
Gimme 25% for the proven reserves and you can have the other 75% + unproven + price rises + control

AUD62.5 billion is about $17.70 or USD 11.33/share.
A price based on fact. Surprised??


Some might think it's only ptlas with his usual bee in the bonnet about price. Fair enough if you do.
But consider how much of what you know is 'fact'. For me, it is only AVZ announcemants. The other 99.5% is smoke & mirrors, aka publicity or propaganda, as a few of us forecast.

Now consider, if you advocated 78c or $1 or ATH ( with or without intraday spike - lol ) or $2 or some other lowball amount that will pay off your mortgage; whether these figures are fair and reasonable????

??

And what about the damages which are over and above any intrinsic value?

PS KoBold using AI to tell them about Manono's lithium. No shit sherlock!
RoW has known for years.
All part of trying to impress, along with multi-billionaire backers and Trump support.

Show me the MONEY!

 

[ptlas]

true true, so what youre saying is $12....US

Have done for a couple of years now.
Wino and me

 

[Goldenboy]

Have done for a couple of years now.
Wino and me

And me $12

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/schmi1000/status/1920760107383587289

 

[Skar]

There was a post earlier, @Skar , with a value of AUD250 billion + multiples more unproven.
Gimme 25% for the proven reserves and you can have the other 75% + unproven + price rises + control

AUD62.5 billion is about $17.70 or USD 11.33/share.
A price based on fact. Surprised??

Thats pure napkin math on the value of the lithium contained at these SUPER DEPRESSED price levels (not including tin or tantalum) BUT does not factor in any cost of production considerations (or future price movements). Management would have a handle on cost of production given we had a BFS done and dusted.

669 Million Tonnes, which is around 200MT of SC6 at present around 800USD/t with current USD to AUD exchange is about 250B AUD. Obvious over simplification I am not saying AVZ is/is not worth that... just that we should let management do their thing and not be hasty.

The rich prey on shaking the trees to spook the impatient.

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/KubelwaDaniel/status/1920338193271955784

 

[Samus]

Imo CATH can stick it up their dirty dog eating Chinese arse. They only offered assistance at the eleventh hour when we were nearly forced to take up a dodgy funding deal.
They haven't lifted a finger to help AVZ until that last minute CCP insurance policy. Then they only offered the exact amount AVZ put into escrow which is really one of the things that put us into a difficult financial position in the first place and most likely with exactly that outcome in mind. They didn't simply unlock that escrow money to help out, they even went to the extent of having that money stolen by scum of the earth fuckers from the DRC.
Tough titties assholes unless you've got more billions to offer than the US. It's not like we bribed politicians to steal their assets or anything and simply took it for ourselves and started developing them.
Pulling out of a dodgy deal which was the lesser of two evils is nothing compared to what Chinese have done to us. Fuck em!
The government is pulling the strings, that's what communism amounts to.
Show us the real money or fuck off.

 

[ptlas]

Would like to clarify one thing.

For those that believe the shorters three years ago were severely burned.
Google ' put options '.

They are not available on all stocks, but almost certainly would have been on ASX 200 or anything close to promotion.

Essentially for a small upfront fee, one has the right to sell a stock at a prearranged price in the future. Whilst covering at a lower market price.
Any shorters that were not out before the suspension would have lost a small, pre-defined fee and would not have been sweating.

The powerful movers that manipulated the price would not be shorting CFDs

 

[ptlas]

Thats pure napkin math on the value of the lithium contained at these SUPER DEPRESSED price levels (not including tin or tantalum) BUT does not factor in any cost of production considerations (or future price movements). Management would have a handle on cost of production given we had a BFS done and dusted.

669 Million Tonnes, which is around 200MT of SC6 at present around 800USD/t with current USD to AUD exchange is about 250B AUD. Obvious over simplification I am not saying AVZ is/is not worth that... just that we should let management do their thing and not be hasty.

The rich prey on shaking the trees to spook the impatient.

Absolutely. Napkin Maths.

We've no other way of calculating.
My point was 78c, $1 etc is not any sort of calculation.