AVZ Discussion 2022

[BobTheCat]

https://x.com/kiengekki/status/1921558159442755818?s=46

What the actual?
Im no conspiracy theorist but the sudden change of language & tack by the loudest & removal of the Kobold video saying “Ink is drying on the contract” makes it appear we have a sub $1 deal.
Also the influx of dollar dazzlers in this group and hotcrapper.

Jens, Firy & now Kiki.

Yeah, it feels like those "in the know" are now trying to prepare us for a disappointing outcome (a really unpleasantly large pineapple). Sub-$1US would mean below ATH(or just close to it), and that really stinks. I know "prices are down" and we should "consider the current geopolitical and economic conditions," but FFS—this is not just any deposit. It is a MASSIVE STRATEGIC RESOURCE with long-term value that many apparently can't fathom. Also, whoever controls Manono controls the lithium price for the next 20–50 years. Just that single fact should be worth more than $10B+ USD.

It just feels bad to have this opportunity taken from us and then be told to be grateful for it.

Sorry—normally I’m happy to just lurk and like posts, but I had to let this out. Also, I don’t want to attack anyone, and I’m sure most people have good intentions behind what they do and say.

In the end, there’s not much else to do but to sit tight, hope for the best (and mentally prepare for a disappointment).

 

[Rechnerhand]

Except that America are investing BILLIONS in Africa to get TRILLIONS out. There is no rush for a sale of AVZ... if Manono is not a part of the initial US investment, the US are still building the Lobito corridor... Kobold have many many other assets they are investing in in Africa (ours is just the best - thus it deserves a premium).

We can find another US partner down the line or we can proceed through courts with Cath. This perception of a rushed sale/last chance nonsense is pure propaganda. This is the START of a massive global shift, Africa investment from 2025+ will go parabolic, the population is growing, western ones are declining.

I don't expect our management to sell out shareholders cheaply now. Nigel has made it clear from the start he knows what he has. Dont let the tree shaking rob us all of a fortune. Transformation is happening.

" ... We can find another US partner down the line or we can proceed through courts with Cath. This perception of a rushed sale/last chance nonsense is pure propaganda. This is the START of a massive global shift, Africa investment from 2025+ will go parabolic, the population is growing, western ones are declining. ..."

--> I won't doubt AVZ will find another potential (US) partner but do you really think thank any investor outside DRC is not considerung AVZ dilema in the last few years with spending that much money w/o having someting binding in hand today by the DRC government (Kabila or Tshisekedi)? Whoever and I guess several is willing to transfer brwonfield into mine/production needs a speedy boarding pass by the DRC themself and put any $ aside for the buyout.
It works more this way ... you're an US investor? Fine ... US government put you on a list for the next bilaterial meeting because they have an agenda to secure urgently so called rare earth materials and critical minerals for their national agenda. (I mean who will come to the US when they have no reliable supply chain secured). DRC will check the list and give its 'OK'. Any deal with CATH is just that much worth as the DRC government let this deal happen ... and surprise ... I guess there will be no ML to AVZ given by the DRC government e.g. the CATH agreement, ZiJin received Northeast section and chinese companies are not that popular anymore (probably 50% to both ... US and China of whole 13559). Other potential investors on the list of politicians to decide? Who knows ... but today it looks like that DRC gave approval fot Kobold ... who am I to judge? But for sure ... Kobold will never bring this into production w/o any further assistance of a known mine player.

 

[Yaseen]

" ... We can find another US partner down the line or we can proceed through courts with Cath. This perception of a rushed sale/last chance nonsense is pure propaganda. This is the START of a massive global shift, Africa investment from 2025+ will go parabolic, the population is growing, western ones are declining. ..."

--> I won't doubt AVZ will find another potential (US) partner but do you really think thank any investor outside DRC is not considerung AVZ dilema in the last few years with spending that much money w/o having someting binding in hand today by the DRC government (Kabila or Tshisekedi)? Whoever and I guess several is willing to transfer brwonfield into mine/production needs a speedy boarding pass by the DRC themself and put any $ aside for the buyout.
It works more this way ... you're an US investor? Fine ... US government put you on a list for the next bilaterial meeting because they have an agenda to secure urgently so called rare earth materials and critical minerals for their national agenda. (I mean who will come to the US when they have no reliable supply chain secured). DRC will check the list and give its 'OK'. Any deal with CATH is just that much worth as the DRC government let this deal happen ... and surprise ... I guess there will be no ML to AVZ given by the DRC government e.g. the CATH agreement, ZiJin received Northeast section and chinese companies are not that popular anymore (probably 50% to both ... US and China of whole 13559). Other potential investors on the list of politicians to decide? Who knows ... but today it looks like that DRC gave approval fot Kobold ... who am I to judge? But for sure ... Kobold will never bring this into production w/o any further assistance of a known mine player.

They want the resource, they pay the 'fair price' or no-one gets it and we sit and wait.

These mofo billionaires didnt become billionaires from being pussies and lettting others take advantage of them, almost all of them are dodgey af and they most certainly wouldnt take the deal if they were on the other side of the fence. They'd sit there and say we know you want it, we know what its worth, we know the two biggest super powers on earth want it, so pay the price or we'll continue in the courts to get our US$10b while seeking another buyer, and if anyone dare touches the south, we'll sue them too and seek more compensation. No ifs, no buts, no maybes, pay up or shut up

 

[Rechnerhand]

They want the resource, they pay the 'fair price' or no-one gets it and we sit and wait.

These mofo billionaires didnt become billionaires from being pussies and lettting others take advantage of them, almost all of them are dodgey af and they most certainly wouldnt take the deal if they were on the other side of the fence. They'd sit there and say we know you want it, we know what its worth, we know the two biggest super powers on earth want it, so pay the price or we'll continue in the courts to get our US$10b while seeking another buyer, and if anyone dare touches the south, we'll sue them too and seek more compensation. No ifs, no buts, no maybes, pay up or shut up

These 'mofo billionaires' became so while reducing their risk over time to lose more then ... you know the end.
They want this resource ... sure, no doubt about it. So what? But they will not want to have it w/o any securities while spent their names and trademark (and for shareholders interest). DRC is a business battleground.

It is not the fault of a potential investor what the situation is these days. They act like anyone else of us would do when we see a good risk reward ratio but don't want to lose even more or going the same bad trip as the former owner did.

 

[PhatCatz]

I can totally see KoBold flipping a PORTION of this project for way more than they “compensate” us for the whole of it.

Not sure why those who are apparels “in the know” are bending over at the 12th hour to take it raw.

 

[Azzler]

Perhaps someone can explain to everyone, who is going to outbid Kobalds offer, or why Kobald would pay more?

 

[Bonsoir]

Perhaps someone can explain to everyone, who is going to outbid Kobalds offer, or why Kobald would pay more?

Has anyone seen Kobalds offer in writing ?

 

[Samus]

I don't see any official information that AVZ will be delaying the ICSID case. There is too much fluff around.
I don't believe those few loud mouth, self important shareholders on twitter are 'in the know' either. They can sook to their mommas that they want a low ball offer all they like. Management should be able to leverage our position more strongly. You've got Chinese and Americans vying for the deposit and the DRC government about to get their arse sued off.

 

[Skar]

" ... We can find another US partner down the line or we can proceed through courts with Cath. This perception of a rushed sale/last chance nonsense is pure propaganda. This is the START of a massive global shift, Africa investment from 2025+ will go parabolic, the population is growing, western ones are declining. ..."

--> I won't doubt AVZ will find another potential (US) partner but do you really think thank any investor outside DRC is not considerung AVZ dilema in the last few years with spending that much money w/o having someting binding in hand today by the DRC government (Kabila or Tshisekedi)? Whoever and I guess several is willing to transfer brwonfield into mine/production needs a speedy boarding pass by the DRC themself and put any $ aside for the buyout.
It works more this way ... you're an US investor? Fine ... US government put you on a list for the next bilaterial meeting because they have an agenda to secure urgently so called rare earth materials and critical minerals for their national agenda. (I mean who will come to the US when they have no reliable supply chain secured). DRC will check the list and give its 'OK'. Any deal with CATH is just that much worth as the DRC government let this deal happen ... and surprise ... I guess there will be no ML to AVZ given by the DRC government e.g. the CATH agreement, ZiJin received Northeast section and chinese companies are not that popular anymore (probably 50% to both ... US and China of whole 13559). Other potential investors on the list of politicians to decide? Who knows ... but today it looks like that DRC gave approval fot Kobold ... who am I to judge? But for sure ... Kobold will never bring this into production w/o any further assistance of a known mine player.

America are going ahead with the minerals for Security deal. Investment is going into Africa. Kobold are the first off the rung (most connected), cherry picking the best bits from the carcass so to speak. Don't conflate US minerals for security to mean Kobold are the only investor (there will be lots and lots). It is only BECAUSE of the US involvement that this oppurtunity has now emerged for Kobold (or they are the architects of it, one of many). If the kobold deal does not go ahead, the US does not scrap the security for minerals deal, it continues (again there is TRILLIONS of mineral wealth in Africa). There are many countries, many other minerals and probably many other sources of lithium available in Africa, ripe for the picking unexplored. As the demand for lithium grows this mammoth source of 669MT will be sitting idle not generating tax (bad for DRC so they can issue an ML for us at any time or we can keep going through courts - a deal is better than courts). More offers will come off the back of the minerals for security deal UNLESS Kobold can lock this up now.

That said I obviously prefer a sale to Kobold but I am not going to let it be stolen (if I can help it at all)... I'll speculate here on the value of the project, I am not posting SP predictions or attacking anyone (on social media) and don't think that helps any. Right now its a wait and see how the deal takes shape, gotta give management room to operate.

 

[wombat74]

Anyone know who this woman is ?KiK giving it some weight .



KIKI KIENGE
@KiengeKki

Maja@fastandfiry, shareholder of AVZ, sends a message of conscience to all other partners of the Australian company, regarding the potential negotiations with the American giant, #KoBold , for the sale of its assets related to the Manono lithium project: "Personal message to $AVZ SH: We are all in this together and want the best outcome. ICSID is not it! It may give you the slow satisfaction of revenge, but you will never see one!! We have an offer on the table. Be grateful for it, given the current geopolitical and economic context. Stop arguing about SP and wait a moment. The AVZ team has worked hard to conclude a deal that we did not even imagine possible a few months ago.So, let's add one. Another note: some people deliberately post negative comments about $ AVZ and others. Let's not give them airtime. You know what you have to do! "

 

[Carlos Danger]

I don't see any official information that AVZ will be delaying the ICSID case. There is too much fluff around.

Nigel signed a document that says AVZ are proposing a temporary suspension of the ICSID arbitration proceedings to the DRC

 

[Skar]

Nigel signed a document that says we are proposing a temporary suspension of the ICSID arbitration proceedings to the DRC
View attachment 84294

Kobold are a new element which hopefully can break whatever political blocks have been set up, so yeah makes sense to go back and try to negotiate.

I guess I don't want short term gain at the expense of a longer term profit... I wonder if royalties are on the table for us.

 

[Azzler]

America are going ahead with the minerals for Security deal. Investment is going into Africa. Kobold are the first off the rung (most connected), cherry picking the best bits from the carcass so to speak. Don't conflate US minerals for security to mean Kobold are the only investor (there will be lots and lots). It is only BECAUSE of the US involvement that this oppurtunity has now emerged for Kobold (or they are the architects of it, one of many). If the kobold deal does not go ahead, the US does not scrap the security for minerals deal, it continues (again there is TRILLIONS of mineral wealth in Africa). There are many countries, many other minerals and probably many other sources of lithium available in Africa, ripe for the picking unexplored. As the demand for lithium grows this mammoth source of 669MT will be sitting idle not generating tax (bad for DRC so they can issue an ML for us at any time or we can keep going through courts - a deal is better than courts). More offers will come off the back of the minerals for security deal UNLESS Kobold can lock this up now.

That said I obviously prefer a sale to Kobold but I am not going to let it be stolen (if I can help it at all)... I'll speculate here on the value of the project, I am not posting SP predictions or attacking anyone (on social media) and don't think that helps any. Right now its a wait and see how the deal takes shape, gotta give management room to operate.

Indeed there will be lots of other US investors in the DRC, but those US investors interested in Manono have already shown themselves.
Everyone who needs to know about Manono, knows about Manono, there's no one still asleep that will wake up next month and come to outbid Kobald.
The players are all at the table.
The Government needs US security for the sake of National security, and as part of that deal, Manono must only go to the US, so China is out, and they apparently already have the North so they can't really cry "unfair".

Your post sounds exciting and promising in terms of AVZ securing a great price, but none of your claims appear to have and relevance to our situation. I mean no offence to you Skar, and I'd welcome anyone to refute what I'm saying or show my where my error lies.

I've stated before that ISCID is a suicide vest option, it's leverage, and we can hurt them if they screw us.
All they need to do is offer us something that would be a better outcome than going through with 5-10 years of legal BS (that we are not yet fully funded for) followed by years of manouvering to attempt to get some of the moneys back.
ISCID is one step above a complete loss for us.

We are not holding the cards as some claim, we have one card, and fortunately great management and Legals.

 

[Retrobyte]

Anyone know who this woman is ?KiK giving it some weight .



KIKI KIENGE
@KiengeKki

Maja@fastandfiry

Anti vaxxer, racist, Trump superfan, most of her Twitter posts have been as accurate as Jens, blocks anyone who doesn't agree with her

 

[Skar]

Indeed there will be lots of other US investors in the DRC, but those US investors interested in Manono have already shown themselves.
Everyone who needs to know about Manono, knows about Manono, there's no one still asleep that will wake up next month and come to outbid Kobald.
The players are all at the table.
The Government needs US security for the sake of National security, and as part of that deal, Manono must only go to the US, so China is out, and they apparently already have the North so they can't really cry "unfair".

Your post sounds exciting and promising in terms of AVZ securing a great price, but none of your claims appear to have and relevance to our situation. I mean no offence to you Skar, and I'd welcome anyone to refute what I'm saying or show my where my error lies.

I've stated before that ISCID is a suicide vest option, it's leverage, and we can hurt them if they screw us.
All they need to do is offer us something that would be a better outcome than going through with 5-10 years of legal BS (that we are not yet fully funded for) followed by years of manouvering to attempt to get some of the moneys back.
ISCID is one step above a complete loss for us.

We are not holding the cards as some claim, we have one card, and fortunately great management and Legals.

I agree with what you are saying with the one caveat being "AT THIS TIME". I see a much higher potential (and have since this mess began) towards the end of the decade for lithium (27-30). AVZ is too big not to mine, weather we do it or some one else. I just see it as scaremongering to try to be convinced to sell out now at a low point (if that is what is transpiring), if we get any where near a fair price... so be it.

 

[Azzler]

I agree with what you are saying with the one caveat being "AT THIS TIME". I see a much higher potential (and have since this mess began) towards the end of the decade for lithium (27-30). AVZ is too big not to mine, weather we do it or some one else. I just see it as scaremongering to try to be convinced to sell out now at a low point (if that is what is transpiring), if we get any where near a fair price... so be it.

But IF we get an offer that you don't consider fair value, and Management say we should take this offer, then you're claiming you know better than Management and DLA Piper? You want to force them somehow into working for years to come to try to wrangle a better deal?

With people now believing we could get $12, or even $3 and we shouldn't settle for less because they think ISCID will do some magic on the most corrupt country on earth, perhaps some scaremongering is warranted.
If shareholders believe ISCID is a good idea, yes I agree they need to be shown to become very fucking fearful of that outcome.

If Management endorse an offer, I believe they are across everything far more than any shareholder or forum commenter, and we should accept what they propose for AVZ.
If they think we can do better, I trust them to pursue other avenues.

 

[Samus]

Nigel signed a document that says AVZ are proposing a temporary suspension of the ICSID arbitration proceedings to the DRC
View attachment 84294

A proposal isn't the same as a commitment to the delay.
Regardless, we didn't hear it from the company and it isn't any reason to expect a low ball settlement.

 

[Skar]

But IF we get an offer that you don't consider fair value, and Management say we should take this offer, then you're claiming you know better than Management and DLA Piper? You want to force them somehow into working for years to come to try to wrangle a better deal?

With people now believing we could get $12, or even $3 and we shouldn't settle for less because they think ISCID will do some magic on the most corrupt country on earth, perhaps some scaremongering is warranted.
If shareholders believe ISCID is a good idea, yes I agree they need to be shown to become very fucking fearful of that outcome.

If Management endorse an offer, I believe they are across everything far more than any shareholder or forum commenter, and we should accept what they propose for AVZ.
If they think we can do better, I trust them to pursue other avenues.

I don't think its a matter of knowing better, its just being in a different set of circumstances - for example the structure of the deal and the way money is returned to shareholders, may affect a CGT discount. DLA piper may say its better to get a ~5% higher sale price than it is to structure a more tax advantageous deal for SH like me (purely a hypothetical) - the other one could be the board just want to bring matters to an early close (I dont think this is true either, purely hypothetical).

In answer to your question, yes I will believe the boards recomendation but I still want the best deal for me obviously.

 

[Spikerama]

How fuckin' stupid are you mate? The emerged status of my profile doesn't impact whether my posts are measured and accurate.

Guess what whine scrotum...the deal's very likely going through whether you like it or not.

If there are any small, compensating, mentally unwell, little boys that want to continue to laugh react, it will be assumed that you are laughing at the referral to the above poster as whine scrotum...so knock yourself out.

Apologies to the posters this morning who provided more measured and intelligent input. I should know better than to respond to people that have no intelligent contribution...oh well

Hmmmn... Let's see. Keeps pushing the same party line as Jens Emil Soderlund by lowballing and trying to soften up shareholders.

Has a name with initial "J" and then 19. What is the 19th letter of the alphabet? Add an "E" in the middle and who's initials have you got?

Coincidence? Maybe. I'll let others be the judge but it tracks with Jens ego that he has to sell his own narrative under his own brand.