AVZ Discussion 2022

[Skar]

There was a post earlier, @Skar , with a value of AUD250 billion + multiples more unproven.
Gimme 25% for the proven reserves and you can have the other 75% + unproven + price rises + control

AUD62.5 billion is about $17.70 or USD 11.33/share.
A price based on fact. Surprised??

Thats pure napkin math on the value of the lithium contained at these SUPER DEPRESSED price levels (not including tin or tantalum) BUT does not factor in any cost of production considerations (or future price movements). Management would have a handle on cost of production given we had a BFS done and dusted.

669 Million Tonnes, which is around 200MT of SC6 at present around 800USD/t with current USD to AUD exchange is about 250B AUD. Obvious over simplification I am not saying AVZ is/is not worth that... just that we should let management do their thing and not be hasty.

The rich prey on shaking the trees to spook the impatient.

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/KubelwaDaniel/status/1920338193271955784

 

[Samus]

Imo CATH can stick it up their dirty dog eating Chinese arse. They only offered assistance at the eleventh hour when we were nearly forced to take up a dodgy funding deal.
They haven't lifted a finger to help AVZ until that last minute CCP insurance policy. Then they only offered the exact amount AVZ put into escrow which is really one of the things that put us into a difficult financial position in the first place and most likely with exactly that outcome in mind. They didn't simply unlock that escrow money to help out, they even went to the extent of having that money stolen by scum of the earth fuckers from the DRC.
Tough titties assholes unless you've got more billions to offer than the US. It's not like we bribed politicians to steal their assets or anything and simply took it for ourselves and started developing them.
Pulling out of a dodgy deal which was the lesser of two evils is nothing compared to what Chinese have done to us. Fuck em!
The government is pulling the strings, that's what communism amounts to.
Show us the real money or fuck off.

 

[ptlas]

Would like to clarify one thing.

For those that believe the shorters three years ago were severely burned.
Google ' put options '.

They are not available on all stocks, but almost certainly would have been on ASX 200 or anything close to promotion.

Essentially for a small upfront fee, one has the right to sell a stock at a prearranged price in the future. Whilst covering at a lower market price.
Any shorters that were not out before the suspension would have lost a small, pre-defined fee and would not have been sweating.

The powerful movers that manipulated the price would not be shorting CFDs

 

[ptlas]

Thats pure napkin math on the value of the lithium contained at these SUPER DEPRESSED price levels (not including tin or tantalum) BUT does not factor in any cost of production considerations (or future price movements). Management would have a handle on cost of production given we had a BFS done and dusted.

669 Million Tonnes, which is around 200MT of SC6 at present around 800USD/t with current USD to AUD exchange is about 250B AUD. Obvious over simplification I am not saying AVZ is/is not worth that... just that we should let management do their thing and not be hasty.

The rich prey on shaking the trees to spook the impatient.

Absolutely. Napkin Maths.

We've no other way of calculating.
My point was 78c, $1 etc is not any sort of calculation.

 

[TLH]

I still hope we’ll look back at this nightmare roller coaster after we receive a fair payout and think wow, all things considered these delays actually worked out for the best. I’d say all the bidders are full aware that with the lithium price expected to climb, they want a deal locked away sooner then later.
Still recon China may close out a deal before a US company? Tiring road but still feel more hope than ever for a sweet ending.

 

[Dunners]

Careful there laddie, he's in love with the Green Mamba Princess, and you may hurt their feelings with rash comments like that

 

[Mute22]

Me holding back from tweeting what management explicitly told us not to say

 

[Skar]

I still hope we’ll look back at this nightmare roller coaster after we receive a fair payout and think wow, all things considered these delays actually worked out for the best. I’d say all the bidders are full aware that with the lithium price expected to climb, they want a deal locked away sooner then later.
Still recon China may close out a deal before a US company? Tiring road but still feel more hope than ever for a sweet ending.

Where you been... there has been a bit of M&A in the lithium space.

Rio bought arcadium
SQM/Hancock bought Azure
PLS bought Latin Resources

Current SC6 price is 800USD/t, was 5000USD/t (I think)... you are right every demand forecasts massive growth for decades... you really gotta think the longer we hold out the better positioned we are ... especially since the current low prices are pricing out all the explorers meaning future supply is all the more contrained as current feasible projects run dry and are not replaced by new projects (given this slump). It really is as Joe Lowry says High Prices fix high prices, low prices fix low prices.... i.e boom and bust cycles.

As to China, they just do business a different way but with alternate chemical supply chains on the cards they cant manipulate the price as easily as they have (they are spending a fortune processing their dirty lepidolite to suppress the spod price). Surely they cant do that forever and something has got to give.

 

[cruiser51]

Thats pure napkin math on the value of the lithium contained at these SUPER DEPRESSED price levels (not including tin or tantalum) BUT does not factor in any cost of production considerations (or future price movements). Management would have a handle on cost of production given we had a BFS done and dusted.

669 Million Tonnes, which is around 200MT of SC6 at present around 800USD/t with current USD to AUD exchange is about 250B AUD. Obvious over simplification I am not saying AVZ is/is not worth that... just that we should let management do their thing and not be hasty.

The rich prey on shaking the trees to spook the impatient.

I actually thought the ore body was much larger, it is open at the lower end, but not drilled out.

AVZ knows that, Zijin knows that, Rio knows that and Kobold knows that.

I believe the reserves are only the top section which was drilled out and even the drilling program on the top stopped because of all the shit which was happening.

So the 669 million tonnes is only the tip of the iceberg and the low hanging fruit, but the entire resource is much larger.

In my opinion Kobold is attempting to buy a top of the range Rolls Royce, while only trying to pay for a clapped out Trabant.

Just a minor point....

About the Trabant....

 

[cruiser51]

Where you been... there has been a bit of M&A in the lithium space.

Rio bought arcadium
SQM/Hancock bought Azure
PLS bought Latin Resources

Current SC6 price is 800USD/t, was 5000USD/t (I think)... you are right every demand forecasts massive growth for decades... you really gotta think the longer we hold out the better positioned we are ... especially since the current low prices are pricing out all the explorers meaning future supply is all the more contrained as current feasible projects run dry and are not replaced by new projects (given this slump). It really is as Joe Lowry says High Prices fix high prices, low prices fix low prices.... i.e boom and bust cycles.

As to China, they just do business a different way but with alternate chemical supply chains on the cards they cant manipulate the price as easily as they have (they are spending a fortune processing their dirty lepidolite to suppress the spod price). Surely they cant do that forever and something has got to give.

Catl is using the lepidolite, BYD is sourcing their lithium from Brazil.

 

[tonster66]

from memory, we only needed the DMS process to produce SC6. Very little cost to get the lithium to battery grade

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/KiengeKki/status/1920411469126004787

https://x.com/KiengeKki/status/1920691308915524026

https://x.com/JackKwete/status/1920706877148504356

https://x.com/KiengeKki/status/1920812221795328137

 

[Frank]

I still hope we’ll look back at this nightmare roller coaster after we receive a fair payout and think wow, all things considered these delays actually worked out for the best. I’d say all the bidders are full aware that with the lithium price expected to climb, they want a deal locked away sooner then later.
Still recon China may close out a deal before a US company? Tiring road but still feel more hope than ever for a sweet ending.

I still hope we’ll look back at this nightmare roller coaster after we receive a fair payout and think wow, all things considered these delays actually worked out for the best.

I Hope and Pray If / when we get a Fair and Reasonable Payout after this Nightmare Roller Coaster Shit Show is over and if we do Finally go Wow it actually worked out

That -

1/ Nigel & Ben can do one last Lap around Oz and spend some time to speak freely and openly about everything that went down to Shareholders in a more relaxed environment before Riding off into the Sunset

Also that -

2/ John's Wife / Widow knows exactly what's happening and gets a Large Payout for their Pain & Suffering and that this Shit Show finally delivers something positive for his Family after all these Years - Gone too soon - He should've been here for this !

RIP John

P.S - I hope someone here is still in touch or can contact his Wife or Family members in the West

 

[Mr Inappropriate]

I swear some people want us to get fuck all for this

In one post August’s credibility goes to zero.

 

[David Krappenschitz]

Didn’t August say recently on X that he thought fair value/compensation was somewhere $5-7.5B USD? Surely he hasn’t done a complete flip flop?

 

[Hodlandwin69]

In one post August’s credibility goes to zero.

Brah, he just started a fact, relax.
The guy can't be out of pocket and is talking shite. (Not taking into account opportunity cost)

 

[obe wan]

In one post August’s credibility goes to zero.

Not really, not at all .. he stated a fact whilst correcting someone at the same time ; someone said they’d be happy with $1USD even though they’d be taking a loss at that price ….$1USD is equivalent to $1.58 AUD .. all August said is AVZ has never been over $1USD … which it hasn’t.

 

[rocknrolla]

At all time high share price and at that time the dollar was 0.75 so it was worth a buck.

 

[Xerof]

https://x.com/kobold_metals/status/1920944329238954071?s=46

Typical

edit, this link was removed but you'll find it again below via mute22 post