AVZ Discussion 2022

[ptlas]

Who really knows how long these behind-the-scenes discussions have been going on before the media started picking it up.

If things are only now starting to heat up, 46 days is barely any time to untangle this mess, strike a deal with the US, bring in new parties, and somehow get the DRC to sign off on a resolution that compensates shareholders. The DRC is clearly still trying to walk a tightrope between US and Chinese interests — and both sides are dug in, locked in this 'wolf warrior' standoff on every front, unwilling to budge. Meanwhile, we’re the ones stuck in the middle of this geopolitical tug-of-war.

I still believe no deal will be reached before the deadline. They'll likely drag it out until the very last minute, until the final verdict looms and only then will they come to the table.

Long story short, my gut says we’re still months away from a resolution. But damn, I’d be over the moon if it came sooner!

Who really knows how long these behind-the-scenes discussions have been going on before the media started picking it up.

Since at least late 2022.
Probably some time before then.

 

[Goat]

ICSID will have to finalise before any deal is penned. The US gov will want a finalisation of the proceedings before determining how much to pay and who really are the bad eggs in all of this. There's no way charges will drop as this has gone up through 2 court systems and there won't be a "sorry, we'll just chuck it all away and take some money and be ok".

As for compensation, AVZ stated some specific figures but there's also the claim of reputation damage which could potentially incur billions of penalties. Whether there is a claim thrown in there for loss of income and potential income could also be in the billions.

$12 sounds about right anyways. lol

 

[Dijon101]

Like I said last week or was it the week before.? I reckon we will still be talking about this at Christmas and well past page 3000.

In your opinion (and for that matter, everyone else's opinion) when will the ICSID's final verdict be handed down?

Are we looking at over 3 months after the hearing starts?? (The 46 day counter) or is this when the decision is handed down??
Is it possible that to strike a deal, all AVZ is waiting on is the final ICSID decision that gives clear legal ownership of Manono to AVZ.?

To me it makes sense that .multiple deals have been worked on in thr background for many months. The ICSID decision is the certainty that these deals and discussions need to be signed off on.

 

[Goldenboy]

ICSID will have to finalise before any deal is penned. The US gov will want a finalisation of the proceedings before determining how much to pay and who really are the bad eggs in all of this. There's no way charges will drop as this has gone up through 2 court systems and there won't be a "sorry, we'll just chuck it all away and take some money and be ok".

As for compensation, AVZ stated some specific figures but there's also the claim of reputation damage which could potentially incur billions of penalties. Whether there is a claim thrown in there for loss of income and potential income could also be in the billions.

$12 sounds about right anyways. lol

$12

 

[Scoota30]

Specific Claims:
* USD 6.243 billion to compensate for the complete destruction of the value of the Manono Project.
* USD 2.081 billion to Dathcom for losses related to the same destruction.

6.243 + 2.081 = 8.324

6.243 / 8.324 = 75%

2.081 / 8.324 = 25%

Are the 10b bros ok?

Only one thing you are forgetting out of that equation Carlos - at the moment the CCP owns Australia economy, therefore any sale of Manono to the US will actually be captured under their 125% tarrifs to the US.

6.243 with a 125% Tariff actually = 14.04675 Billion USD

 

[BEISHA]

Hey mate thanks for bringing this Tax policy to my attention, I didn't know about it and so just looked it up.
It's very interesting and it makes me wonder.

So I'd only pay 15% tax on a super contribution instead of the max of 45%, or if we can get the CGD, 22.5%, which on your hypothetical $100,000 contribution, means I keep an extra $30,000, or $7,500 (if CGD) but that all goes into my super.

Out of $100,000 untaxed income, in one case I get either $55,000 or $77,500 (CGD) of that in my pocket,
OR my super gets $85,000 of it.

Interesting decision to make!
But thanks again for bringing this to my attention

P.S. You can see how much unused concessional contributions you are eligible to contribute by visiting MyGov, ATO.

 

[Spikerama]

In your opinion (and for that matter, everyone else's opinion) when will the ICSID's final verdict be handed down?

Are we looking at over 3 months after the hearing starts?? (The 46 day counter) or is this when the decision is handed down??
Is it possible that to strike a deal, all AVZ is waiting on is the final ICSID decision that gives clear legal ownership of Manono to AVZ.?

To me it makes sense that .multiple deals have been worked on in thr background for many months. The ICSID decision is the certainty that these deals and discussions need to be signed off on.

Dijon, I really have no idea mate. Except that court cases always take faaaaaar longer than anyone, besides the lawyers, ever expects. And cases of this magnitude take even way longer that that.

There's always curve balls chucked in and as we know the DRC, aided by the corrupt Chinese have mastered the art of tossing curve balls. So I've parked any expectations at this point.

 

[PhatCatz]

Where's China in all of this? Surely, they aren't just sitting around with dick in hand?

 

[BEISHA]

I’m worried about the lack of winks lately….

 

[PhatCatz]

Trump launches critical minerals probe to weigh new tariffs

The administration could consider levies on critical minerals, following other sector-specific tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum, automobiles and car parts.

www.afr.com

The findings will be damning and I suspect something Trump won't appreciate. China controls that narrative.

Goes without saying, but this just further drives the need for Manono to stay in western hands.

Also another item from the AFR.

https://www.afr.com/world/asia/how-china-plans-to-cripple-the-us-in-trade-war-20250415-p5lrxc

 

[Carlos Danger]

In your opinion (and for that matter, everyone else's opinion) when will the ICSID's final verdict be handed down?

Are we looking at over 3 months after the hearing starts?? (The 46 day counter) or is this when the decision is handed down??
Is it possible that to strike a deal, all AVZ is waiting on is the final ICSID decision that gives clear legal ownership of Manono to AVZ.?

To me it makes sense that .multiple deals have been worked on in thr background for many months. The ICSID decision is the certainty that these deals and discussions need to be signed off on.

2027 at the earliest

 

[Carlos Danger]

ICSID will have to finalise before any deal is penned. The US gov will want a finalisation of the proceedings before determining how much to pay and who really are the bad eggs in all of this. There's no way charges will drop as this has gone up through 2 court systems and there won't be a "sorry, we'll just chuck it all away and take some money and be ok".

As for compensation, AVZ stated some specific figures but there's also the claim of reputation damage which could potentially incur billions of penalties. Whether there is a claim thrown in there for loss of income and potential income could also be in the billions.

$12 sounds about right anyways. lol

KoBold are keen to get a deal done before ICSID finalises. Whether AVZ accept the discount offer or push ahead to 2027 and beyond for enforcement is up in the air. But the gringos do not care about the ICSID outcome and specifically stated that all legal cases need to be dropped for the deal.

Which 2 court systems are you referring to?

If you are talking about ICSID and ICC they are looking at different issues and have vastly different rules as Cominiere humiliatingly found out when trying to have the partial award at the ICC thrown out on the basis that the ICSID excluded the north from the interim measures imo

 

[Powerage]

In your opinion (and for that matter, everyone else's opinion) when will the ICSID's final verdict be handed down?

Are we looking at over 3 months after the hearing starts?? (The 46 day counter) or is this when the decision is handed down??
Is it possible that to strike a deal, all AVZ is waiting on is the final ICSID decision that gives clear legal ownership of Manono to AVZ.?

To me it makes sense that .multiple deals have been worked on in thr background for many months. The ICSID decision is the certainty that these deals and discussions need to be signed off on.

Hey Dijon,

Expect 3 months of deliberation re ICSID post hearing.
Currently we have 3 days set aside with a 4th if we need it, there will be no dragging it out on either side once it starts.
The thing with commercial courts (as apposed to criminal) is that theres no "gotcha moments" - i.e. in the process of discovery and approval of single expert witnesses etc, pretty much everything is known prior to the start of proceedings and laid out before the court.
Each side then gets to argue their case on the known facts previously presented before the court (this is why the discovery and subpoena process etc takes so long). Essentially, theres no new evidence / documentation / witnesses brought forward during the proceedings.

My thoughts for what they're worth are that neither side want this to go through to its finality at ICSID - the DRC will already know what's in front of the panel (including all of the likely references that point towards various levels of corruption etc), hence why their trying a last ditch effort to have the case set aside on jurisdictional grounds - they'd be mad if they didn't try it. I imagine the US on the other hand won't want this to surface as the more dirty laundry that's officially aired the harder it is for the US to officially engage (think restrictions around the Magnitsky act as a a start - which covers corruption along with human rights abuses etc).

I reckon we'll get a term sheet with CPs around the concurrent reinstatement of 13359 in its entirety, splitting the north for compo, selling the south to US co. and dropping all of the cases. I reckon we'll get this within the next 3 weeks.

For what its worth Nigel's stopped responding to my calls, which in the past has preceded and announcement - but seriously, I wouldn't read too much into this. We can only hope.

Good luck to everyone - Ive been in this since 2016, its been one helluva ride, but theres some serious quality on this forum that's helped keep me sane. Hopefully see you all on the other side.

Cheers,
Powerage.

 

[Mute22]

Hey Dijon,

Expect 3 months of deliberation re ICSID post hearing.
Currently we have 3 days set aside with a 4th if we need it, there will be no dragging it out on either side once it starts.
The thing with commercial courts (as apposed to criminal) is that theres no "gotcha moments" - i.e. in the process of discovery and approval of single expert witnesses etc, pretty much everything is known prior to the start of proceedings and laid out before the court.
Each side then gets to argue their case on the known facts previously presented before the court (this is why the discovery and subpoena process etc takes so long). Essentially, theres no new evidence / documentation / witnesses brought forward during the proceedings.

My thoughts for what they're worth are that neither side want this to go through to its finality at ICSID - the DRC will already know what's in front of the panel (including all of the likely references that point towards various levels of corruption etc), hence why their trying a last ditch effort to have the case set aside on jurisdictional grounds - they'd be mad if they didn't try it. I imagine the US on the other hand won't want this to surface as the more dirty laundry that's officially aired the harder it is for the US to officially engage (think restrictions around the Magnitsky act as a a start - which covers corruption along with human rights abuses etc).

I reckon we'll get a term sheet with CPs around the concurrent reinstatement of 13359 in its entirety, splitting the north for compo, selling the south to US co. and dropping all of the cases. I reckon we'll get this within the next 3 weeks.

For what its worth Nigel's stopped responding to my calls, which in the past has preceded and announcement - but seriously, I wouldn't read too much into this. We can only hope.

Good luck to everyone - Ive been in this since 2016, its been one helluva ride, but theres some serious quality on this forum that's helped keep me sane. Hopefully see you all on the other side.

Cheers,
Powerage.

See you Easter 2026!

But seriously, appreciate your thoughts and let’s hope it all comes together this way for a clean resolution for all involved. Nothing good for any party if this goes through the courts.

Getting really sick of 2-minute noodles.

 

[Frank]

View attachment 82467
View attachment 82468

https://x.com/MinMinesRDC/status/1912136163248271638

https://x.com/AshleeLaur39941/status/1912148216050753797

https://x.com/brendo726/status/1912233806561702379

 

[Retrobyte]

Hey Dijon,

Expect 3 months of deliberation re ICSID post hearing.

We should have requested Judge Judy be the arbitrator

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/AugustCohen4/status/1912310125718560930

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/suunasolkija/status/1912263653308657786

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/AfricanMiners/status/1912171470576582863

Not a single mention of non-stop corruption by Congolese Govt elites (and their Chinese paymasters).

 

[RHyNO]

View attachment 82504

https://x.com/AfricanMiners/status/1912171470576582863

Not a single mention of non-stop corruption by Congolese Govt elites (and their Chinese paymasters).


View attachment 82505

View attachment 82506

That guardian narrative is truely hilarious, under no circumstances could the country who has shit on its citizens by supporting corruption be accountable for shitting on its citizens by supporting corruption, it’s definitely white Christian males aged 45 and over that ruined everything by inventing math and ethics