AVZ Discussion 2022

[PhatCatz]

From the Equities Club this morning

AVZ’s Manono gets even messier — KoBold makes its move​

Last week, Donald Trump muscled into the AVZ Minerals' saga. This week, Bill Gates fancied a piece of the world's largest hard rock lithium deposit. The battle for Manono just went from wild to surreal.

The Gates-backed KoBold Metals has now thrown their hat into the ring, bidding for a majority stake in the monster Congolese lithium project. The US-based private company wants to buy in through Cominiere, the state-owned company with 30% of the asset.

​

The never ending saga of Manono. Source: Bloomberg

Why is this huge? KoBold is one of the most well-capitalised and technically sophisticated entrants in the critical minerals space. Their interest validates the scale and strategic importance of Manono.

Rarely has a mining asset become such a geopolitical prize. The US wants Manono out of Chinese hands, and Western governments are keenly aware of what's at stake - the world's largest hardrock lithium deposit in an increasingly lithium-hungry world.

With a resource of over 400Mt at 1.65% Li₂O, Manono remains one of the most coveted lithium assets on the planet. The fact that KoBold would enter this legal minefield speaks volumes about the deposit's significance.

“KoBold would welcome the opportunity to develop the asset.”
- KoBold Chief Legal Officer Sandy Alexander wrote to Congo President Felix Tshisekedi’s chief of staff in January 2025
The possibility of KoBold unlocking this asset with the technical and financial support of Silicon Valley's cleantech elite may accelerate development and revive stalled infrastructure planning.

The implications for AVZ shareholders are complex.

It's unlikely KoBold would buy out AVZ directly, as AVZ's equity interest in Manono has been under dispute since 2022. Instead, KoBold's deal appears aimed at acquiring control through Cominiere, effectively bypassing AVZ altogether.

Unfrotunately this raises the possibility that AVZ shareholders could be sidelined entirely,unless the company succeeds in international arbitration or reaches a negotiated settlement. Both of which are very possible outcomes.

If AVZ wins its case or forces a settlement, compensation could come from Cominiere, the DRC government, or potentially KoBold, depending on how many overlapping claims are resolved.

However, if KoBold moves forward and AVZ is unable to reassert its ownership stake, shareholders could be left holding equity in a company with no asset. The next 3–6 months are crucial, with arbitration outcomes and political negotiations likely to determine whether AVZ shareholders recover any value.

The Manono saga has now drawn in Chinese mining giants, the US government, a tech billionaire, and 21,000 stranded shareholders. The world's biggest lithium deposit has become a corporate and geopolitical battlefield.

​

The legal win last week was further validation in AVZ’s management to pursue Manono. Source: Reuters.com

Yeah nah.

 

[Dave Evans]

This may be construed the wrong way...

I don’t think anything makes any difference Mute. The corrupt arseholes over there are running the show and playing nice with them never made any difference, still point taken and post deleted

 

[Mute22]

I don’t think anything makes any difference Mute. The corrupt arseholes over there are running the show and playing nice with them never made any difference, still point taken and deleted

I get it.

We've taken the high road this far, let's see it through.

Trust me, I'll share my real thoughts on the larger picture when this is all done.

 

[Spikerama]

Alright folks head over to the assets folder. On the end of page 3, I have put the ICSID Final Countdown Counter.

I'm done with it for now. Works pretty well. It will look pretty ominous once it gets down to a few days. Hopefully we won't need it by then but I'm not holding breath that's for sure.

AVZ Assets for Social Media Campaign

Here's another one for the set.

thestockexchange.com.au

 

[cruiser51]

---

AVZ’s Manono gets even messier — KoBold makes its move
​

Last week, Donald Trump muscled into the AVZ Minerals' saga. This week, Bill Gates fancied a piece of the world's largest hard rock lithium deposit. The battle for Manono just went from wild to surreal.

The Gates-backed KoBold Metals has now thrown their hat into the ring, seeking a stake in the monster Congolese lithium project. The US-based private company has proposed a deal that excludes Cominiere, instead requesting the Congolese government take a minority shareholding in the project. 1



The never ending saga of Manono. Source: Bloomberg
Why is this huge? KoBold is one of the most well-capitalised and technically sophisticated entrants in the critical minerals space. Their interest validates the scale and strategic importance of Manono.

Rarely has a mining asset become such a geopolitical prize. The US wants Manono out of Chinese hands, and Western governments are keenly aware of what's at stake - the world's largest hardrock lithium deposit in an increasingly lithium-hungry world.

AVZ Minerals: From $6 million to a $4.5 billion delisting. Inside the Congo lithium saga​

Equities Club
·
7 May 2024
Read full story
With a resource of over 400Mt at 1.65% Li₂O,2 Manono remains one of the most coveted lithium assets on the planet. The fact that KoBold would enter this legal minefield speaks volumes about the deposit's significance.

“KoBold would welcome the opportunity to develop the asset.”
- KoBold Chief Legal Officer Sandy Alexander wrote to Congo President Felix Tshisekedi’s chief of staff in January 2025
The possibility of KoBold potentially unlocking this asset comes amid a complex legal backdrop. Recently, AVZ secured a partial arbitration victory, winning €39.1m in penalties against Cominiere,3 which adds another layer to the ongoing negotiations.

The implications for AVZ shareholders are complex.

Current developments indicate ongoing negotiations, with AVZ currently engaged in arbitration proceedings and preliminary discussions with potential US-based funding partners. The company's CEO, Nigel Ferguson, was notably copied on KoBold's official communication.

If AVZ wins its case or forces a settlement, compensation could come from Cominiere, the DRC government, or potentially KoBold, depending on how many overlapping claims are resolved.

While the legal proceedings continue, AVZ remains actively engaged in multiple arbitration processes to protect its interests in the Manono project.

The next 3–6 months are crucial, with arbitration outcomes and political negotiations likely to determine whether AVZ shareholders recover any value.

The Manono saga has now drawn in Chinese mining giants, the US government, a tech billionaire, and more than 21,000 shareholders hanging on every development. The world's biggest lithium deposit has become a corporate and geopolitical battlefield.



The legal win last week was further validation in AVZ’s management to pursue Manono. Source: Reuters.com

 

[LEFOOL]

Why sell? why not prefer royalties from whichever mofo develops this mamoth resource for the length of the mine, the way lithium is going S/H would be recieving a divy of 2 dollars per share every year. why sell the cow when u can have the milk

Why Sell ?
Because DRC. Lets get the fuck out of there and forgot about this shit show. The days of 'getting divvies' are so dead mate let's be realistic =)

 

[Mute22]

Just came across this article from 2023, had Kobold Minerals already made an offer all the way back then?

November 6, 2023 at 6:46 PM UTC

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-06/gates-backed-mining-start-up-wants-to-expand-into-congo?embedded-checkout=true

Bill Gates-Backed Mining Startup Wants to Expand Into Congo​

KoBold Metals, a mining start-up backed by Bill Gates that’s developing a copper project in Zambia, is getting closer to investing in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo.

That’s according to chief executive officer Kurt House, who said that the company has already bid for one asset, which didn’t result in a transaction. He declined to identify the asset.

“We think it is probably the best place in the world for the types of materials we’re looking for,” House said in an interview.
KoBold is exploring around the world for new deposits of metals that are key to the global green-energy transition. Congo is the world’s largest cobalt producer and one of the biggest sources of copper. Both materials are expected to see demand swell in the coming decade as they’re needed for clean-energy infrastructure and rechargeable batteries.

Read More: Why the Fight for ‘Critical Minerals’ Is Heating Up: QuickTake

San Francisco Bay Area-based KoBold’s entry into Congo would align with the priorities of US President Joe Biden’s administration, which is keen to grow American investments throughout the electric-vehicle supply chain, according to House.

The closely held company’s backers include Gates’s Breakthrough Energy Ventures, and it also counts BHP Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company by market value, among its shareholders. Michael Bloomberg, majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP, is an investor in Breakthrough, according to the company’s website.



Reading between the lines, maybe they were hoping to pick us up for scraps, thinking our position was weak. Now that they see we’re on the front foot at ICSID and won’t entertain their low-ball offers, they’re starting to come closer to fair value

 

[robface]

AVZ will consider what steps it will take in relation to recovery of the penalty

The partial award at the ICC was against Cominiere. The award is due to the ICC initially not us.

Therefore for this particular award the ICC can only recoup from Cominiere before paying to AVZ through the lawyers

It doesn't have to be money paid from profits in production with Zijin it can be any money paid to Cominiere by anyone that the ICC will be able to intercept

"AVZ will consider what steps it will take in relation to recovery of the penalty"

Announcement suggests the responsibility falls on AvZ for recovery?, unless they've said they will bundle it in with negotiations.

 

[Spikerama]

While I'm on it, it might be a good for people to go back through that whole Assets Thread and re-air some of that dirty laundry now that we have more media attention. Having just gone back through it, there's quite a few showstoppers in there that highlight the key bad actors in engaging ways.

I will reupload a clean film of the Celestin Bribe video I did too and pop it at the end if anyone want's to download. It will be on WeTransfer which doesn't last very long these days so be quick if you want it.

AVZ Assets for Social Media Campaign

Hi everyone. As requested here is a thread that will contain all the links to the assets I have been creating. Feel free to use them throughout social media whenever and whereever you see an opportunity. If I can make one suggestion it is if you are going to screen shot them and post the image...

thestockexchange.com.au

 

[Carlos Danger]

AVZ will consider what steps it will take in relation to recovery of the penalty

"AVZ will consider what steps it will take in relation to recovery of the penalty"

Announcement suggests the responsibility falls on AvZ for recovery?, unless they've said they will bundle it in with negotiations.

Recovery through the ICC relies on Cominiere receiving payments to their accounts which can be avoided at least for a while

So rather than responsibility for recovery falling on AVZ management are saying they will consider using alternative recovery methods if needed

So in order of preference it is Cominiere (Or Zijin) pay the fine, the ICC uses enforcement if payments are available to be intercepted or we pursue recovery of the award through other avenues

 

[BEISHA]

Here are my thoughts on the takeover offer by Kobold. As a long-term shareholder since December 2016, I've experienced the ups and downs alongside the company—riding the high to 36c, watching it drop to 4c, and then seeing it rise again to 1.36c. Throughout all these fluctuations, we’ve remained steadfast in our belief in the potential of renewable energy and its ability to help shape a better future for the world.

That said, I cannot accept anything less than $3.50 per share in this deal. I also question why Kobold would be willing to give away control of the north. To my understanding, the situation is still pending with both ICC and ICDIS. As far as I’m concerned, the north is not theirs to offer, as it hasn’t been fully settled yet. If Zijin intends to retain control over the north, they must pay a fair and equitable price for it—nothing less. The value of these assets should be fully recognised, and we, as shareholders, deserve fair compensation in exchange for giving up our stake.

We find ourselves in an incredibly strong position, with only 70 days remaining until the ICDIS. This is a critical point in time, especially given the strategic nature of the mineral resources we control. Given the high demand for such minerals, and the central role they will play in the future of renewable energy, it’s perplexing and concerning to see any move toward undervaluing these assets.

With the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) positioning itself to attract more Western investment, it seems counterproductive—if not outright misguided—that we would be considering selling ourselves cheaply. The global shift toward renewable energy is accelerating, and the minerals we possess are crucial to this transformation. Why, then, would we let such a valuable resource sit idle or be handed away at a bargain price?

Nigel, as the decision-maker, is sitting with a winning hand of cards. Our position is strong, and our resource is of the highest quality. The strategic importance of this mineral to the future of renewable energy cannot be overstated. The world’s increasing demand for these minerals, combined with the DRC’s focus on attracting Western investors, puts us in a position of power. We have the leverage to negotiate a deal that reflects the true value of these assets.

If anything, we are where we are today precisely because of the exceptional quality of our resource, and it’s this value that should guide any discussions about its future. Selling ourselves short now would be a missed opportunity, one that could have far-reaching consequences for shareholders, for the company, and for the role we can play in driving the renewable energy revolution. We must stand firm and demand a fair price that reflects both the strategic importance of what we hold and the substantial value that is yet to be realised.

From what I’ve gathered, Kobold is moving quickly in response to recent news coverage from outlets like Australian Financial Review and Bloomberg. The buzz around our strategic position, combined with the potential for these minerals in the renewable energy sector, is clearly catching attention. Kobold’s urgency reflects the value of what we hold, but it’s important to remember that we should not be selling ourselves short in the process.

As I’ve said before, we shouldn’t accept anything less than $3.50 per share. This is not a time to settle for less, especially when our resource is so critical to the future of renewable energy. We are in a prime position, with major players like Kobold showing interest, and we must ensure that the price we accept reflects the true worth of our company and its assets. We’ve endured the highs and lows of the market, and now is the time for us to capitalise on the long-term potential of our investment. Anything less than $3.50 per share would be an undervaluation of what we have built and the opportunities that lie ahead.

It’s also important to recognise the emotional toll this journey has taken on many shareholders. Many of us have suffered significant mental and emotional strain, and even relationship challenges, due to the uncertainty and volatility of our investments. However, we have carried on because we truly believed that, in the end, there would be justice—that our patience and dedication would be rewarded.

If Zijin manages to acquire the north without paying a fair price for it, then it would be a clear violation of that sense of justice. It would send a message that shareholders, who have endured so much over the years, are not valued or respected. For those of us who have stuck with this company through thick and thin, this is not just about financial compensation—it’s about fairness. If we allow Zijin to take control of such a valuable asset without proper payment, it undermines the very principles of equity and fairness that we believed would guide this process. $3.5 and nothing less!

Anyone who believes we should accept the current offer or risk walking away with $0 is kidding themselves. The situation is far more complex, and there’s too much at stake. The DRC cannot afford to let this resource sit idle—it’s far too valuable. No reputable company would consider investing in this resource without the proper fines being paid and the outstanding issues with ICC and ICDIS being resolved first.

The DRC’s ability to attract Western investment hinges on addressing these concerns, and no serious player would move forward without that clarity and resolution. We are in a strong position, and it's crucial that we demand a fair price. The risks of accepting a lowball offer far outweigh any potential short-term gain, and we cannot afford to let this opportunity slip away for anything less than its true worth. This is the moment for us to secure a fair deal that reflects the strategic value of our holdings and the long-term potential they offer.

Good to see you again Charbella and couldnt agree more with your post.

 

[BEISHA]

I want to get excited but after all the false starts I'll sit and wait to see if we get a takeover figure and the money in the bank. Drive it home Nige $1.50 absolute min or lets keep the court cases going, $2 and I dare say we'd all be happy enough

 

[hedrox]

Recovery through the ICC relies on Cominiere receiving payments to their accounts which can be avoided at least for a while

So rather than responsibility for recovery falling on AVZ management are saying they will consider using alternative recovery methods if needed

So in order of preference it is Cominiere (Or Zijin) pay the fine, the ICC uses enforcement if payments are available to be intercepted or we pursue recovery of the award through other avenues

AVZ management are saying they will consider using alternative recovery methods if needed...

 

[Dave Evans]

Here are my thoughts on the takeover offer by Kobold. As a long-term shareholder since December 2016, I've experienced the ups and downs alongside the company—riding the high to 36c, watching it drop to 4c, and then seeing it rise again to 1.36c. Throughout all these fluctuations, we’ve remained steadfast in our belief in the potential of renewable energy and its ability to help shape a better future for the world.

That said, I cannot accept anything less than $3.50 per share in this deal. I also question why Kobold would be willing to give away control of the north. To my understanding, the situation is still pending with both ICC and ICDIS. As far as I’m concerned, the north is not theirs to offer, as it hasn’t been fully settled yet. If Zijin intends to retain control over the north, they must pay a fair and equitable price for it—nothing less. The value of these assets should be fully recognised, and we, as shareholders, deserve fair compensation in exchange for giving up our stake.

We find ourselves in an incredibly strong position, with only 70 days remaining until the ICDIS. This is a critical point in time, especially given the strategic nature of the mineral resources we control. Given the high demand for such minerals, and the central role they will play in the future of renewable energy, it’s perplexing and concerning to see any move toward undervaluing these assets.

With the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) positioning itself to attract more Western investment, it seems counterproductive—if not outright misguided—that we would be considering selling ourselves cheaply. The global shift toward renewable energy is accelerating, and the minerals we possess are crucial to this transformation. Why, then, would we let such a valuable resource sit idle or be handed away at a bargain price?

Nigel, as the decision-maker, is sitting with a winning hand of cards. Our position is strong, and our resource is of the highest quality. The strategic importance of this mineral to the future of renewable energy cannot be overstated. The world’s increasing demand for these minerals, combined with the DRC’s focus on attracting Western investors, puts us in a position of power. We have the leverage to negotiate a deal that reflects the true value of these assets.

If anything, we are where we are today precisely because of the exceptional quality of our resource, and it’s this value that should guide any discussions about its future. Selling ourselves short now would be a missed opportunity, one that could have far-reaching consequences for shareholders, for the company, and for the role we can play in driving the renewable energy revolution. We must stand firm and demand a fair price that reflects both the strategic importance of what we hold and the substantial value that is yet to be realised.

From what I’ve gathered, Kobold is moving quickly in response to recent news coverage from outlets like Australian Financial Review and Bloomberg. The buzz around our strategic position, combined with the potential for these minerals in the renewable energy sector, is clearly catching attention. Kobold’s urgency reflects the value of what we hold, but it’s important to remember that we should not be selling ourselves short in the process.

As I’ve said before, we shouldn’t accept anything less than $3.50 per share. This is not a time to settle for less, especially when our resource is so critical to the future of renewable energy. We are in a prime position, with major players like Kobold showing interest, and we must ensure that the price we accept reflects the true worth of our company and its assets. We’ve endured the highs and lows of the market, and now is the time for us to capitalise on the long-term potential of our investment. Anything less than $3.50 per share would be an undervaluation of what we have built and the opportunities that lie ahead.

It’s also important to recognise the emotional toll this journey has taken on many shareholders. Many of us have suffered significant mental and emotional strain, and even relationship challenges, due to the uncertainty and volatility of our investments. However, we have carried on because we truly believed that, in the end, there would be justice—that our patience and dedication would be rewarded.

If Zijin manages to acquire the north without paying a fair price for it, then it would be a clear violation of that sense of justice. It would send a message that shareholders, who have endured so much over the years, are not valued or respected. For those of us who have stuck with this company through thick and thin, this is not just about financial compensation—it’s about fairness. If we allow Zijin to take control of such a valuable asset without proper payment, it undermines the very principles of equity and fairness that we believed would guide this process. $3.5 and nothing less!

Anyone who believes we should accept the current offer or risk walking away with $0 is kidding themselves. The situation is far more complex, and there’s too much at stake. The DRC cannot afford to let this resource sit idle—it’s far too valuable. No reputable company would consider investing in this resource without the proper fines being paid and the outstanding issues with ICC and ICDIS being resolved first.

The DRC’s ability to attract Western investment hinges on addressing these concerns, and no serious player would move forward without that clarity and resolution. We are in a strong position, and it's crucial that we demand a fair price. The risks of accepting a lowball offer far outweigh any potential short-term gain, and we cannot afford to let this opportunity slip away for anything less than its true worth. This is the moment for us to secure a fair deal that reflects the strategic value of our holdings and the long-term potential they offer.

Charbella, a couple of extra points to note when it comes to the northern part of our tenement

Firstly, the updated Mineral Resource for CDL

https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20231218/pdf/05ypn56nzd3nhw.pdf

Secondly what AVZ has said about the northern part of the tenement. Zijin’s claim is “without any legal foundation”

https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20231030/pdf/05wpvn09rmwjjt.pdf

Thirdly, what Jin Cheng (Zijin) valued 15% of our resource at, before our updated Mineral Resource increased to 842Mt

https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230515/pdf/05pptrlv9sgvck.pdf

https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240131/pdf/05zy2s9sjtry80.pdf

These are all things to consider and remind KoBold and the US of when they prance in saying Zijin gets the north

 

[Thaz]

We talking price predictions!?

A bit early. But I can see us going to get $50ps.

 

[Mute22]

Charbella, a couple of extra points to note when it comes to the northern part of our tenement

Firstly, the updated Mineral Resource for CDL

View attachment 80013

https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20231218/pdf/05ypn56nzd3nhw.pdf

Secondly what AVZ has said about the northern part of the tenement. Zijin’s claim is “without any legal foundation”

View attachment 80014

https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20231030/pdf/05wpvn09rmwjjt.pdf

Thirdly, what Jin Cheng valued 15% of our resource at, before our updated Mineral Resource increased by 47% to 842Mt

View attachment 80016

https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240131/pdf/05zy2s9sjtry80.pdf

These are all things to consider and remind KoBold and the US of when they prance in saying Zijin gets the north

Another correction, 'Journalists' at the AFR haven't (and probably won't) cover this.

From what I’ve gathered, Kobold is moving quickly in response to recent news coverage from outlets like Australian Financial Review and Bloomberg. The buzz around our strategic position, combined with the potential for these minerals in the renewable energy sector, is clearly catching attention. Kobold’s urgency reflects the value of what we hold, but it’s important to remember that we should not be selling ourselves short in the process.

 

[ptlas]

We talking price predictions!?

A bit early. But I can see us going to get $50ps.

US$ ?

 

[cruiser51]

US$ ?

Fooken ose!!

Fid you think DRC Francs??

 

[LEFOOL]

We talking price predictions!?

A bit early. But I can see us going to get $50ps.

Must be a typo, you mean 50pesos yeah?

 

[David Krappenschitz]

Another correction, 'Journalists' at the AFR haven't (and probably won't) cover this.

From what I’ve gathered, Kobold is moving quickly in response to recent news coverage from outlets like Australian Financial Review and Bloomberg. The buzz around our strategic position, combined with the potential for these minerals in the renewable energy sector, is clearly catching attention. Kobold’s urgency reflects the value of what we hold, but it’s important to remember that we should not be selling ourselves short in the process.

It boggles my mind that there are shareholders on X saying $1 would be fine and debating it. What a terrible advertisement, way to publicly sell the company and asset short. What it ends up being we’ll see but at least put out a value that reflects the project. Smh