AVZ Discussion 2022

[j.l]

This whole time i've been wondering how the US could be involved if CATH ended up with all of the product/offtake anyway, I wouldn't have thought the US would just be happy enough to transport the product via the Lobito Corridor. You'd also imagine the Chinese would not accept (or if they had no choice, would not be happy) to lose complete ownership & product from Manono.

I believe CATL don't currently have a battery manufacturing facility in the U.S but you're right in that they supply Tesla.

Surely the best outcome for all involved right now would be that the US buyout AVZ's ownership of Manono & then part of the agreement would be that the product ends up back in the US and that CATL build a battery manufacturing facility in the US, creating US jobs and keeping the supply chain domestic to the US. Makes a lot of sense really and follows the America First & Domestic manufacturing mission that the Trump Administration is pushing.

Either way, if the US are trying to strong-arm China/CATL and take over the entire project, you'd imagine a fire would be lit under CATH's ass right now in damage control mode trying to do everything they can to maintain their JV stake & offtake. A very good position for AVZ to be in right now. In @geo_au we trust!!

Love it mate. Hopefully this is exactly the move in play.

 

[PhatCatz]

I fully expect Chinese to come to party with a very good deal to get this settled before any great traction on US/DRC deals. Anywhere north of $2.50 and I might take notice. If they offer some pathetic 1 buck fuck em. Yes I might be a tad optimistic.

Means we all won’t have to work again.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

Can anyone shed some light on how breaking the CATH deal would play out?

 

[TheCount]

Can anyone shed some light on how breaking the CATH deal would play out?

 

[Azzler]

Can anyone shed some light on how breaking the CATH deal would play out?

Apparently it's just the $20 Mil break fee.

 

[Xerof]

Can anyone shed some light on how breaking the CATH deal would play out?

Thats the US6.2b question

But it should only cost 20m

edit: as Azzler says too

 

[Dazmac66]

My Understanding. - Under the ownership arrangements if AVZ(or subsidiary) were sold, CATH would be paid out their percentage of ownership. No more off-takes etc to worry about as no ownership of the resource!
Edit: but the $20mill sound like a better deal to me!

 

[whales]

Can anyone shed some light on how breaking the CATH deal would play out?

The CATH deal is 2 fold.
1 offtake agreement
2 partnership in a hydroxide plant
BUT only if ÀVZ are the owners of the mining licence and proceed to mine.
If AVZ decide to sell the project before shovel hit the dirt would depend on the fine print in the contracts drawn between CATH and DATHCOM when the mining licence is obtained .
IF no exclusion to sell project before mining commences then would assume CATH will need to deal with new owner.

 

[Xerof]

I'll leave it to Nigel........

 

[Hodlandwin69]

Thats the US6.2b question

But it should only cost 20m

edit: as Azzler says too

As in the 20mil they gave us to fight the cases or on top of?
Tbh I thought the 20mil break fee was the original agreement.

It would be utter shit if we end up having the give them 30% of the pie (or whatever ownership structure they have).

Just to clarify, they don't yet own 30% or so via indirect interest through GLH??

 

[Hodlandwin69]

Ok, above is the conditions required for CATH deal to procede, so I guess with the assistance of the DRC, they can disapprove of CATH and assist us in selling to the USA without CATH owning 30.5%

 

[Thaz]

Looks like things are on the up!

Id be happy to entertain $5 per share plus an entitlement to shares in the acquiring entity.

Allows us to exit at a reasonable price , while maintaining a free carry interest in manono

 

[Xerof]

View attachment 79149
Ok, above is the conditions required for CATH deal to procede, so I guess with the assistance of the DRC, they can disapprove of CATH and assist us in selling to the USA without CATH owning 30.5%

OK, there's no break fee, so again, leave it to Nigel to sort

@Azzler ??

 

[Azzler]

View attachment 79150
OK, there's no break fee, so again, leave it to Nigel to sort

@Azzler ??

 

[PhatCatz]

So that means AVZ can take the money and then kick them out for nothing? If correct, Beautiful work by the Board.

 

[Pokok]

$12....$12....$12....

Stop it you're giving me a hard on

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/Matt_Kilpatrick/status/1900032222188757215

Donald Trump Must Back Australia in the Fight for Strategic Metals​

President-elect Donald Trump approaches his second term much differently than his first.

No longer is his goal disruption, both the Republican party and the U.S. bureaucracy more broadly.

Whereas Trump achieved victories by getting NATO members to pony up their dues and achieving the Abraham Accords breakthrough, his greatest legacy might have been achieving bipartisan recognition that China was less a peer competitor whose cooperation might moderate and more a threat to the rules-based order.

Whereas the Supreme Court debates TikTok and China’s ambitions to conquer Taiwan if not other Pacific islands, strategic minerals fuels China’s drive.

Here, the Democratic Republic of Congo is ground zero.

If it were not for Congo’s endemic corruption, it could be the Qatar of Africa: Geologists and economists estimate that Congo’s mineral wealth could top $24 trillion.

The country is the world’s leading producer of cobalt, a metal necessary to produce the batteries upon which most 21st century electronic depend and is also one of the world’s leading producers of copper.

Add into the mix: uranium, gold, germanium, lithium, diamonds, nickel, tantalum, and tin, crude oil, and coffee.

While U.S. companies are late to the game in Congo and have missed opportunities through their own passivity to expand their presence in the market, companies from U.S. allies like Australia have been fighting for the 21st century on the frontlines in Africa.

The Australian mining sector is huge.

The skyscrapers of Perth shine with mining wealth, and the sector dominates West Australia’s economy and contributes to the country’s broader economy.

Because China was one of the Australian mining largest markets, Australian politicians like former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd long frustrated their American counterparts with their permissiveness toward China.

Canberra, like Washington, may have been slow to gauge Beijing’s threat correctly, but many Australians have now learned the lesson.

As China seeks to bribe and coerce Congo through illicit means to push Australian firms out of Congo’s mining sector, the Trump administration must defend Australia’s interests both diplomatically and with economic sanctions on Chinese firms.

The logic of the Lobito corridor is to direct African trade westward into the Atlantic basin in order to better orient African trade away from China.

China, however, is fighting dirty to hamper Australian mining in Africa.

Consider the case of AVZ Minerals, an Australian firm seeking to extract lithium and tin from Manono in southern Congo.

Exploratory digging shows the lithium deposits in the region are huge. Colloquially, AVZ hit the motherlode.

But Congolese corruption, abetted by the People’s Republic of China, seek to deny them their contractual right.

AVZ now has International Court of Arbitration cases pending before involving La Congolaise d’Exploitation Minière, Jin Cheng Mining Company, and Dathomir Mining Resources SARLU, and International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes against the Democratic Republic of Congo itself.

While AVZ does not seek to marginalize China entirely—economically it makes no sense for them to do so—they seek balance between East and West. China, however, rejects balance in favor of its own maximalist approach.

It has corrupted at least 13 Congolese media outlets.

Ten of millions of dollars held in escrow disappeared, a theft in which Chinese officials appear complicit.

The Congolese government proceeded to arrest journalists pursuing the story.

A March 2022 forensic investigation based on AVZ and Congolese documents showed hard evidence of Chinese bribery.

Chinese mining interests fund “non-governmental organizations” whose sole purpose appears to be to undermine Australia’s interest.

Congolese public companies also sold shares to Chinese firms at fire sale prices in contravention of the law in a scheme to quadruple personal profits for Congolese officials up to and including the prime minister.

Zijin and the Congolese government’s strategy appears to be economic attrition, to steal and filibuster until AVZ has no choice but to suspend operations and give up.

Zijin’s latest strategy appears to be to stop paying arbitration costs in the hope the court ceases its work.

AVZ is just one case among many that exposes how Chinese interests leverage Congo’s corruption to try to corner the market in strategic metals. The nature of the U.S. intelligence, national security, and diplomatic bureaucracy is compartmentalized.

Analysts spent their careers focused on the weeds, never getting to the trees let alone spotting the forest.

While the National Security Council is supposed to coordinate, it seldom effectively pieces together disparate problems, especially when they span bureaucracies let alone continents.

Rather than just chalk up AVZ’s difficulties extracting lithium and tin from Congo, it is important to understand how Beijing takes a “whole of government” approach to harass and cheat competitors, and the general shenanigans in which they engage.

Americans increasingly throw around the phrase “fake news” to discredit anything with which they disagree, the Congo dispute shows how China wholesale purchases and promotes fake stories in pursuit of its commercial monopolies and strategic interests.

If Trump seeks to counter China, it is essential he recognize the battle will not only be in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, but also in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s forests and mines, international arbitration courts, and the boardrooms of Australia.

Incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio should direct diplomats in Kinshasa to spend more time in southern Congo where the action is.

Rather than report on just another lunch with one cabinet minister or another, they should track their incomes and show up in various court proceedings to signal that Congo’s corruption will not proceed in the dark.

Australia might be on the frontline, but both the U.S. Departments of State and Commerce should signal that they see no even playing field; they will support allies and expect allied governments to support their own firms in the battle against Beijing’s interests.

If Beijing operates with such granularity, Trump, Rubio, and every other principal in the incoming U.S. administration must ask why the United States should not do so as well.

By Michael Rubin

https://x.com/emil_jens/status/1900056957433864492

 

[wombat74]

View attachment 79154​

https://x.com/Matt_Kilpatrick/status/1900032222188757215

Donald Trump Must Back Australia in the Fight for Strategic Metals​

President-elect Donald Trump approaches his second term much differently than his first.

No longer is his goal disruption, both the Republican party and the U.S. bureaucracy more broadly.

Whereas Trump achieved victories by getting NATO members to pony up their dues and achieving the Abraham Accords breakthrough, his greatest legacy might have been achieving bipartisan recognition that China was less a peer competitor whose cooperation might moderate and more a threat to the rules-based order.

Whereas the Supreme Court debates TikTok and China’s ambitions to conquer Taiwan if not other Pacific islands, strategic minerals fuels China’s drive.

Here, the Democratic Republic of Congo is ground zero. If it were not for Congo’s endemic corruption, it could be the Qatar of Africa: Geologists and economists estimate that Congo’s mineral wealth could top $24 trillion.

The country is the world’s leading producer of cobalt, a metal necessary to produce the batteries upon which most 21st century electronic depend and is also one of the world’s leading producers of copper.

Add into the mix: uranium, gold, germanium, lithium, diamonds, nickel, tantalum, and tin, crude oil, and coffee.

While U.S. companies are late to the game in Congo and have missed opportunities through their own passivity to expand their presence in the market, companies from U.S. allies like Australia have been fighting for the 21st century on the frontlines in Africa.

The Australian mining sector is huge.

The skyscrapers of Perth shine with mining wealth, and the sector dominates West Australia’s economy and contributes to the country’s broader economy.

Because China was one of the Australian mining largest markets, Australian politicians like former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd long frustrated their American counterparts with their permissiveness toward China.

Canberra, like Washington, may have been slow to gauge Beijing’s threat correctly, but many Australians have now learned the lesson.

As China seeks to bribe and coerce Congo through illicit means to push Australian firms out of Congo’s mining sector, the Trump administration must defend Australia’s interests both diplomatically and with economic sanctions on Chinese firms.

The logic of the Lobito corridor is to direct African trade westward into the Atlantic basin in order to better orient African trade away from China.

China, however, is fighting dirty to hamper Australian mining in Africa.

Consider the case of AVZ Minerals, an Australian firm seeking to extract lithium and tin from Manono in southern Congo.

Exploratory digging shows the lithium deposits in the region are huge. Colloquially, AVZ hit the motherlode.

But Congolese corruption, abetted by the People’s Republic of China, seek to deny them their contractual right. AVZ now has International Court of Arbitration cases pending before involving La Congolaise d’Exploitation Minière, Jin Cheng Mining Company, and Dathomir Mining Resources SARLU, and International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes against the Democratic Republic of Congo itself.

While AVZ does not seek to marginalize China entirely—economically it makes no sense for them to do so—they seek balance between East and West. China, however, rejects balance in favor of its own maximalist approach.

It has corrupted at least 13 Congolese media outlets. Ten of millions of dollars held in escrow disappeared, a theft in which Chinese officials appear complicit.

The Congolese government proceeded to arrest journalists pursuing the story. A March 2022 forensic investigation based on AVZ and Congolese documents showed hard evidence of Chinese bribery.

Chinese mining interests fund “non-governmental organizations” whose sole purpose appears to be to undermine Australia’s interest.

Congolese public companies also sold shares to Chinese firms at fire sale prices in contravention of the law in a scheme to quadruple personal profits for Congolese officials up to and including the prime minister.

Zijin and the Congolese government’s strategy appears to be economic attrition, to steal and filibuster until AVZ has no choice but to suspend operations and give up.

Zijin’s latest strategy appears to be to stop paying arbitration costs in the hope the court ceases its work.

AVZ is just one case among many that exposes how Chinese interests leverage Congo’s corruption to try to corner the market in strategic metals. The nature of the U.S. intelligence, national security, and diplomatic bureaucracy is compartmentalized.

Analysts spent their careers focused on the weeds, never getting to the trees let alone spotting the forest.

While the National Security Council is supposed to coordinate, it seldom effectively pieces together disparate problems, especially when they span bureaucracies let alone continents.

Rather than just chalk up AVZ’s difficulties extracting lithium and tin from Congo, it is important to understand how Beijing takes a “whole of government” approach to harass and cheat competitors, and the general shenanigans in which they engage.

Americans increasingly throw around the phrase “fake news” to discredit anything with which they disagree, the Congo dispute shows how China wholesale purchases and promotes fake stories in pursuit of its commercial monopolies and strategic interests.

If Trump seeks to counter China, it is essential he recognize the battle will not only be in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, but also in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s forests and mines, international arbitration courts, and the boardrooms of Australia.

Incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio should direct diplomats in Kinshasa to spend more time in southern Congo where the action is.

Rather than report on just another lunch with one cabinet minister or another, they should track their incomes and show up in various court proceedings to signal that Congo’s corruption will not proceed in the dark.

Australia might be on the frontline, but both the U.S. Departments of State and Commerce should signal that they see no even playing field; they will support allies and expect allied governments to support their own firms in the battle against Beijing’s interests.

If Beijing operates with such granularity, Trump, Rubio, and every other principal in the incoming U.S. administration must ask why the United States should not do so as well.

By Michael Rubin


View attachment 79153

https://x.com/emil_jens/status/1900056957433864492

This is a recycle/rehash on an excellent article from January 20 . Mostly the same content word for word .

 

[ptlas]

View attachment 79112

The problem is, as I've said numerous times before, that if people want to give very low prices for what they will accept then this will be factored into games that are played and any offers that may be made.

Every time you talk 50c or 78c or whatever you are allowing your desperation to sell other SH short.
Maybe STFU.

Sorry to be blunt, but the hints don't seem to work

As @Winenut said - $12
U effing S

 

[Frank]

This is a rehash on an excellent article from January 20 . Mostly the same content word for word .

I know that ! Tell that to Matt & Jens ! Does it really matter, the important thing is

I don't care if it's posted every Day / Twice a Day !

As long as it Hits the Fuckers where it Hurts !!!

Keeps Pressure on the DRC Scum Bags !

Makes AVZ SH's more aware for those who may have missed it !

Shines a Spotlight on the Parasites !

Makes them think twice in Future !