AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
You don't like it? fine.
$250 billion.
p.s. i've been offline since beginning of feb.
What's been the go / latest updates.. or is it just status quo? i think i saw some brief mentions of a potential takeover? Were they just things coming out from the rumour ville?
Status quo. Bring on the court cases
Nothing appears to be going on, from what we can see publicly anyway. Just moving forward with the arbitration cases, which were at one point supposed to be a pressure tactic aimed at reaching a negotiated resolution, but now appear themselves to be our main hope of a positive outcome.
Could be wrong, but it seems DRC appear willing to go through the ICSID pain and see what the outcome is before trying to work out the best way forward for them from there. See if they lose first. Then see if they can ignore the ruling. Then if not, consider whether the penalty is manageable to perhaps try and get the Chinese to pay it (at a reduced, negotiated level) in exchange for control over Manono in totality. OR if (when) they lose and the penalty is very large, to then enter into negotiations with AVZ to accept some kind of terms. Possibly like, here take a licence for Roche Dure in exchange for agreeing to waive the penalty.
But yeah unless something changes in the next 6 months it seems like DRC are playing the 'lets wait and see what happens' game, rather than being smart and negotiating to settle the situation pre-ICSID ruling.
WoW, this is a must, definitely in the US interest. Control of ports and exports. To good an opportunity to pass up. Lets hope a deal can be done.
1Trillion$
America has done little thus far in DRC to erode China's hold on critical mineral channels, and in the last few years hasn't stepped in to support AVZ in its battle. Why would they now? Even if this deal does go ahead, which I doubt, America is supposedly to be offered to opportunities to exploit and export minerals. Why would they aid a Chinese-backed and Chinese-partnered company like AVZ, whose critical mineral offtakes are all headed to China? How does that help them gain control of the flow of these resources?
I guess there is some potential that they could swoop in and prevent our need to partner up with CATH, to somehow support the Americans instead and partner up to send our uncontracted offtakes back to the states, but we're just a little fish in a big pond. They don't need us, and I'd be careful what we wish for. Also, I have strong doubts over what will come out of this DRC-US partnership offer in any case, given US failures in the past to counteract China in the DRC and its current unwillingness to get involved in external conflicts
Azzler
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Fark me you're a misery guts mate.
I'm feeling very positive about whats going on.
"American has done little thus far...."
True. But using "thus far" as a metric for anything since Trump 2.0 has become 90% redundant, so we'll see.
I don't think Americans likely to replace CATH, and i don't think that's necessarily best outcome for us either, but they could try and make sure that China at least doesn't have 100% of the output.
But for me, anything that shakes things up and gets stuff moving I think is at least a half step forwards
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