AVZ Discussion 2022

[Mute22]

I know we are in a legal battle and not a war for public opinion, but fuck me it would be nice to get some fair media coverage within Australia.

Does anybody know if AVZ is providing a direct media release or doing outreach to amenable journalists for good news? Clearly all the AFR employees have it out for us and are all in on IGO/LTR.

You would think the largest battery manufacturer in the world backing the largest lithium play on planet earth might be worth a mention?

I mean seriously, look at the latest headlines? If we are serious about ever relisting, we need an actual PR strategy - starting TODAY.

The average punter out of the loop, just reading the headlines would think Zijin is about to start mining and AVZ has been caught bribing officials, whereas the opposite is much closer to reality.

I don't work directly in PR, but adjacent - it's very frustrating to watch the selective stories in the media will pickup in a nano-second while we don't seem to be on the front foot with positive news.

 

[Stockinvesting]

Anyone thinking Felix or his representatives weren't involved in these negotiations is kidding themselves.

I believe instructions have been given to Zijin by DRC, although what they could be is anyone's guess.

Further, the tone of the announcement leads me to believe we're closer to seeing an end to this saga, sooner than most people think.

A fantastic announcement and result.

 

[SilentOne]

If I'm understanding the situation correctly, it's not caving in, it's realising the complete mess this is and taking the best way out, with the primary intention of making money and not that of seeking justice.

It's believed that if Zijin are told to pack their bags, they sue DRC.
Added to that many DRC corrupt officials can be exposed by Zijin if they so choose to.
Zijin have deliberately put themselves into this position for this exact reason, leverage.

So a negociated outcome where everyone gets a piece of the pie is the only sane path forward.
There is an undercurrent amongst the murmers I hear that Zijin will be made ot pay for the north, and wont just get it all for their Bribes they've payed. However this is just murmers.

CATH may yet manouver against Zijin, I hear they don't like them very much, and as wealthy as Zijin are, CATH are wealthier still by a fair bit.
I'm sure they want the lot, but they also don't want to be left out of this massive deposit.
You make out like they will take the lot or nothing at all, that's absurd. This is an important asset to battery manufacturers to secure a supply from.

Azzler,

In my opinion I believe you are completely wrong - Zijin have no case to bring in my opinion against the DRC unless you are saying that bribing government officials is legal. The money that was paid as I understand it never found its way into DRC Treasury and it was in breach of the Joint Venture Agreement. In my opinion Zijin have not followed the mining code so I dont see the legal argument that they can bring - the ICC and ICSID I would suggest would throw out any case and simply laugh - thinking that one of their own are simply trying to prank them.

I cant see any claim that Zijin would have and no doubt they would just embarrass themselves - they would simply be better off to fade into the sunset and try and take advantage of another 3rd world country.

The DRC would not have a problem in strengthening their own position by calling out fraud and prosecuting any government officials that had compromised themselves and received benefits.

Nope, Dathcom is entitled to the full tenement and its not a difficult argument to prosecute.

But after 3 red wines what would I know.

But hey just my thoughts.

SilentOne

 

[tonster66]

Nigel was asked directly the question at the 22 agm, “have we given up the north” his reply was that we have not. When I invested it was for 13359 , all of it. Nothing has changed is my understanding

 

[cruiser51]

Azzler,

In my opinion I believe you are completely wrong - Zijin have no case to bring in my opinion against the DRC unless you are saying that bribing government officials is legal. The money that was paid as I understand it never found its way into DRC Treasury and it was in breach of the Joint Venture Agreement. In my opinion Zijin have not followed the mining code so I dont see the legal argument that they can bring - the ICC and ICSID I would suggest would throw out any case and simply laugh - thinking that one of their own are simply trying to prank them.

I cant see any claim that Zijin would have and no doubt they would just embarrass themselves - they would simply be better off to fade into the sunset and try and take advantage of another 3rd world country.

The DRC would not have a problem in strengthening their own position by calling out fraud and prosecuting any government officials that had compromised themselves and received benefits.

Nope, Dathcom is entitled to the full tenement and its not a difficult argument to prosecute.

But after 3 red wines what would I know.

But hey just my thoughts.

SilentOne

Is that 3 bottles?

 

[cruiser51]

Anyone thinking Felix or his representatives weren't involved in these negotiations is kidding themselves.

I believe instructions have been given to Zijin by DRC, although what they could be is anyone's guess.

Further, the tone of the announcement leads me to believe we're closer to seeing an end to this saga, sooner than most people think.

A fantastic announcement and result.

Is that why Zijin told Bloomberg that they were going to start mining in 12 months time?

It is not the language of a mob which is about to fuck off, is it?

I would say Zijin hasn't started fighting yet, just having a bit of fun and is rolling it sleeves up for a full assault.
They are thinking in their fucked up mind 'enough of being Mr. Nice guy'.

I'm waiting for Tommy the twat to rock up with his banana boatman mate and his lacky shano, the clown, with the 10,000 personalities who talks to himself on the toilet, while having a crap.

 

[JasonM]

Nigel was asked directly the question at the 22 agm, “have we given up the north” his reply was that we have not. When I invested it was for 13359 , all of it. Nothing has changed is my understanding

yep true but being pragmatic, they'll do a deal. zijin will pay some penalties but they'll get the north in the end imo. I'd love for them to get fucked over so hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[Flekman11]

The 30.5% to me is the interesting part. It’s a very exact figure. The old 24% made a lot of sense. This doesn’t.

Based on the Aus dollar in 21 vs it now, CATH are paying the EXACT same price per 1% in AUD for a slice. But why 30.5%?

 

[RHyNO]

I mean seriously, look at the latest headlines? If we are serious about ever relisting, we need an actual PR strategy - starting TODAY.

View attachment 75692

The average punter out of the loop, just reading the headlines would think Zijin is about to start mining and AVZ has been caught bribing officials, whereas the opposite is much closer to reality.

I don't work directly in PR, but adjacent - it's very frustrating to watch the selective stories in the media will pickup in a nano-second while we don't seem to be on the front foot with positive news.

Don’t sweat it they will get to it. Strong moves at the appropriate moment. Truth always wins out.

 

[SilentOne]

yep true but being pragmatic, they'll do a deal. zijin will pay some penalties but they'll get the north in the end imo. I'd love for them to get fucked over so hopefully I'm wrong.

Jason,

Thats not being pragmatic its being defeatist - never give into a bully.

Nigel has managed to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he now has the money to go the long haul - lets see what Nigel has planned next. Its not a difficult case to argue though it has been long and drawn out (and painfully for me personally).

Also if you give into a bully you weaken your hand and they will want more and more concessions - you dont want Sin Bin anywhere near the full tenement of Dathcom or any power generation.

Regards,

SilentOne

 

[Flekman11]

Jason,

Thats not being pragmatic its being defeatist - never give into a bully.

Nigel has managed to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he now has the money to go the long haul - lets see what Nigel has planned next. Its not a difficult case to argue though it has been long and drawn out (and painfully for me personally).

Also if you give into a bully you weaken your hand and they will want more and more concessions - you dont want Sin Bin anywhere near the full tenement of Dathcom or any power generation.

Regards,

SilentOne

Right you are.

Positive leverage is achieved by having something that someone else needs more than you. At that point you hold the cards. I feel Nigel has done exactly that beautifully.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

The 30.5% to me is the interesting part. It’s a very exact figure. The old 24% made a lot of sense. This doesn’t.

Based on the Aus dollar in 21 vs it now, CATH are paying the EXACT same price per 1% in AUD for a slice. But why 30.5%?

It was probably a bartering process. Cath probably wanted 40% and AVZ said 25% and back and forth and eventually agreed to 30.5%

 

[cruiser51]

The 30.5% to me is the interesting part. It’s a very exact figure. The old 24% made a lot of sense. This doesn’t.

Based on the Aus dollar in 21 vs it now, CATH are paying the EXACT same price per 1% in AUD for a slice. But why 30.5%?

24% of 75% = 18%

30.5% of 60% = 18.3%

Just a thought

 

[Largus Averta]

I don't think we should be giving up anything within a km or 3 of our last drill bit to the north. We did the work. If they want to argue we haven't "explored" an area, then they got no grounds.

 

[Largus Averta]

I don't think we should be giving up anything within a km or 3 of our last drill bit to the north. We did the work. If they want to argue we haven't "explored" an area, then they got no grounds.

Actually, fuck that. I forgot for a second. Fuck Zigin.

 

[BenGriffo]

24% of 75% = 18%

30.5% of 60% = 18.3%

Just a thought

I think it's suspiciously close to the value of half our last traded market cap.

 

[Flekman11]

24% of 75% = 18%

30.5% of 60% = 18.3%

Just a thought

Yeah maybe.

But clearly one left Dathcom with 51%. The other?

Something is in this.

 

[cruiser51]

Actually, fuck that. I forgot for a second. Fuck Zigin.

that's my boy!

 

[Dazmac66]

Still think zijin should have to purchase the North, cunts

The reason we are in this rat-trap begging for funding stems from drilling the north to satisfy the DRC MINING CODE. How have Zijin in any way followed the mining code? Take emotion out of the decision making process, follow the law.

Haven't posted for a few days so all I can say is - Yeeeeww! Small breaching whale.

Any fishos out there - nailed two grassy sweetlip over 4 kg in 10 minutes yesterday. Will never happen again. Must be a sign!!

 

[JNRB]

I'm still curious as to why CATH now taking a stake now in GLH instead of Dathcom.
Some smarter cookies than me have done the math and worked out that they're valuing it about the same as previous agreement (thanks @Flekman11) so why the change?

My purely speculating:

It aligns their interests more directly to ours. Their slice of the pie is no longer proportional to Dathcom as a whole.
Their chunk is directly proportional to our chunk.
Not just of the tenement, but now also of ownership. That wasn't the case when they were taking a stake in Dathcom directly.

So they are incentivised to fight not just to make sure Dathcom retains as much of the tenement as possible (ie all of it - fuk you zijin and celestin) AND fight to make sure that AVZ retain as much ownership of it as possible (ie that extra 15% - fuk you zijin and celestin)


Some further speculation albeit I don't like it:
It ensures that there will be no concerns about there not being a clear majority holder of Dathcom (apparently DRC wants there to be a >50% owner of mining projects). This shouldn't be a problem for us - but it does leave a little wiggle room if we decided to let someone else buy a stake in the project down the line (at say $12/share ).