AVZ Discussion 2022

[Underwaterdark]

I am a bit late to read this announcement.

Re the 30.5% revised for CATH,

Are my back of the envelope numbers right that this equates to circa 40c AUD per share in value, that they are going to pay?

$850m USD, at current exchange, 3.5b SOI.

 

[PhatCatz]

@Hodlandwin69

I'll find out for certain next week, but I think, on balance, you're right about 30.5% of 'the project'. This would mean CATH will have ~40.6% of GLH, still leaving AVZI and AVZ with majority control at the Holding Company level

But the point is, DATHCOM still holds the 75%, with CATH having a 30.5% INDIRECT interest.

TBH, I think CATH is much more interested in the product, not so much how big a slice of the Pei (sic) they hold.

Fuck, they will even build phase 1 for us via a loan, rather than more equity, if AVZ doesn't want to bother with supra-national bank funding, with all the shit that carries with it

thank you for doing the math. this is the point I was confused about. Let's hope this doesn't go the way of LLL.

 

[Retrobyte]

I for one welcome our new Chinese overlords (I had a genetic test and it says I'm 5.5% Chinese)

So did a bloke I work with. His genetic test came back 5.5cm Chinese.

 

[Xerof]

I am a bit late to read this announcement.

Re the 30.5% revised for CATH,

Are my back of the envelope numbers right that this equates to circa 40c AUD per share in value, that they are going to pay?

$850m USD, at current exchange, 3.5b SOI.

Unreliable for valuations at the equity level. It's essentially a farm-in (and also Off-takes). Remember AVZ have paid ~US$26m plus a few shares for 75% of this tenement, and since put another circa 100m into exploration

JMT, anyone else?

Anyway, time for a Margarita, seeing it's Friday and after a week of some EXCELLENT news

 

[Underwaterdark]

Unreliable for valuations at the equity level. It's essentially a farm-in. Remember AVZ have paid ~US$26m plus a few shares for 75% of this tenement, and since put another circa 100m into exploration

JMT, anyone else?

Not overly looking from a valuation perspective, just wanted a rough idea of if we are all going to get out of it, what the price might be.
(fully aware that its not the greatest indication, but better than we have had for some time)

 

[tonster66]

I think Zijin will still be in the game. It will be too hard for DRC to dig themselves out of that one without exposing themselves to legal action and angering the overlords.

Ever since the mica infested north comments in 2021 there's been indication from Nigel of the inevitability of giving something away.

The wording "grant of a mining
licence for the project area covered by PR 13359 (Mining Licence)" says to me that we/CATH only get the south - probably the extent of the resource drilling completed to date.

But we don't give up the north and Mpiana Mwanga for nothing so we use the ICC and ICSID wins to negotiate some kind of compensation, say a payout or a royalty on Zjin's production, and some kind of power supply agreement or free carried share of the power station.

I would have thought it would be easy to get rid of zijin , they have so many breaches of the drc mining code just look at the environmental damage they have caused at Manono.
If they can take AVZ license for not getting on with shareholders they can do this to zijin easily

 

[Frank]

x.com

x.com

x.com

x.com

 

[wombat74]

I think Zijin will still be in the game. It will be too hard for DRC to dig themselves out of that one without exposing themselves to legal action and angering the overlords.

Ever since the mica infested north comments in 2021 there's been indication from Nigel of the inevitability of giving something away.

The wording "grant of a mining
licence for the project area covered by PR 13359 (Mining Licence)" says to me that we/CATH only get the south - probably the extent of the resource drilling completed to date.

But we don't give up the north and Mpiana Mwanga for nothing so we use the ICC and ICSID wins to negotiate some kind of compensation, say a payout or a royalty on Zjin's production, and some kind of power supply agreement or free carried share of the power station.

I agree . None of this changes the fact the CCP have the DRC Gov under the thumb . Way I see this playing out is Zijin keep the North , AVZ/CATH take Roche Dure and a deal is done where both parties have access to power . All court cases dropped . All fines dropped . Cominiere is 90% owned by the DRC Gov . Celestine Kibeya is but a tiny turd floating in tolate's toilet . IMO

 

[Hodlandwin69]

I agree . None of this changes the fact the CCP have the DRC Gov under the thumb . Way I see this playing out is Zijin keep the North , AVZ/CATH take Roche Dure and a deal is done where both parties have access to power . All court cases dropped . All fines dropped . Cominiere is 90% owned by the DRC Gov . Celestine Kibeya is but a tiny turd floating in tolate's toilet . IMO

Still think zijin should have to purchase the North, cunts

 

[JNRB]

*Meanwhile in other News of the Shit Stains / Skidmarks of the Toilet variety, I see where

Zijin adds to lithium push with talks to buy $6 billion miner
China’s Zijin Mining Group Co., already a global force in copper and gold, is stepping up its foray into lithium with the potential purchase of a Chinese producer of the battery material.



The resource giant is in talks to buy shares in Zangge Mining Co. Ltd. that could lead to a takeover, Zijin said in a statement to the Hong Kong Exchange.



Zijin has grown aggressively over the past decade through a string of acquisitions, and is aiming to be a bigger player in the expanding global lithium market.



Zangge, the latest target, is based in China’s minerals-rich western region of Qinghai and has a market value of 46.6 billion yuan ($6.4 billion) on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.



It primarily produces potash — used in fertilizer — but gets about a third of its revenue from lithium extracted from salt lakes in Qinghai.



Lithium’s crash since late-2022 — prices have slumped nearly 90% — has hammered listed producers and fueled a spurt of dealmaking.



Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second-biggest mining group, last year agreed to buy Arcadium Lithium Plc for $6.7 billion.



Zangge is a relatively small lithium producer, producing about 9,278 tons of lithium carbonate in the first nine months of 2024.



But it has plans to develop further brine projects in Tibet, where it’s also already a junior partner in Zijin’s Julong copper mine.



Zijin’s chairman Chen Jinghe, a former geologist, has led a rapid expansion that’s carried the firm to the top ranks of global copper miners.



The company began digging gold in the mountains of southeastern China in the 1980s, and it now has a market capitalization of about $57 billion in Hong Kong. The shares rose 3.4% on Friday.



The lithium push has been more recent, driven by the prospect of a decades-long demand boom for the material used in EV batteries.



It’s aiming to produce up to 300,000 tons by 2028, according to a strategy document from last year, although output so far been modest.



Zijin postponed the startup of projects in Argentina and Tibet until 2025 because of weak prices and permitting delays, and it’s aiming to start output in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 2026.



It also has a hard-rock mine in China’s Hunan province.



The purchase of shares in Zangge “may result in a change in control” of the target company, Zijin’s statement said.



mining.com





Hmmm !.jpg

@Underwaterdark

If you want an idea of what we might get out of it from a full takeover, better off looking at things like this and other acquisitions.

There's been a few deals going around lately. Yes, sometimes for operating mines rather than mineral rights, but still - $2billion + for a projects that's are minnows next to Manono seems to be happening not infrequently now.



- CATH deal values us ~0.85 billion.
But made during our dark ages, and comes with lots of other sweeteners.


- i forget the details but there was some sort of litigation claim from Kong maybe? Can't remember the details, but for their % chunk of the company and what they claimed they were due in damages IIRC it valued the company at a few billion.

- God its going a long way back now but our ATH was circa 4-5 B? Back when we thought things were going well and the DRC had matured as a country.

- if you value it proportionately to resource size based on recent acquisitions: others have done the math, but it gets pretty juicy.

- if were forced to be 'patient' for long enough for lithium prices to recover it gets even juicier

- if you add on top of that rights to 49% of a hydroxide plant, well it starts looking very tasty indeed.


So those are my metrics for trying to keep some sort of concept of what this thing is worth.
Question is how long.

 

[JNRB]

I agree . None of this changes the fact the CCP have the DRC Gov under the thumb . Way I see this playing out is Zijin keep the North , AVZ/CATH take Roche Dure and a deal is done where both parties have access to power . All court cases dropped . All fines dropped . Cominiere is 90% owned by the DRC Gov . Celestine Kibeya is but a tiny turd floating in tolate's toilet . IMO

So you think:
- CATH is going to build a mine on HALF the tenement we're entitled to
- So they can let Zijin build a SEPARATE mine right next door
- ...and then buy stuff from Zijin that they could have owned and mined themselves??

Not a chance.
We fought for the north as a tiny Minnow.
CATH will squash Zijin, exert the same CCP pressure that Zijin does and then some, offer hydroxide plant as a sweeteners, and we will develop the whole site.

I really don't understand why people think the involvement of CATH thinks we're suddenly likely to just roll over and give up the north.
WE want it all
CATH wants it all.

Why - the hell - would we cave now.

 

[Rediah]

@Underwaterdark

If you want an idea of what we might get out of it from a full takeover, better off looking at things like this and other acquisitions.

There's been a few deals going around lately. Yes, sometimes for operating mines rather than mineral rights, but still - $2billion + for a projects that's are minnows next to Manono seems to be happening not infrequently now.



- CATH deal values us ~0.85 billion.
But made during our dark ages, and comes with lots of other sweeteners.


- i forget the details but there was some sort of litigation claim from Kong maybe? Can't remember the details, but for their % chunk of the company and what they claimed they were due in damages IIRC it valued the company at a few billion.

- God its going a long way back now but our ATH was circa 4-5 B? Back when we thought things were going well and the DRC had matured as a country.

- if you value it proportionately to resource size based on recent acquisitions: others have done the math, but it gets pretty juicy.

- if were forced to be 'patient' for long enough for lithium prices to recover it gets even juicier

- if you add on top of that rights to 49% of a hydroxide plant, well it starts looking very tasty indeed.


So those are my metrics for trying to keep some sort of concept of what this thing is worth.
Question is how long.

I want it juicier, please sir, thank you.

 

[Hudnut]

I'll be happy once I have details of how we stop the DRC etc from reneging on any deal that might be done.

Mining rights that are granted and removed once, can be granted and removed twice.
Promises to pay can be ignored.

I'm sure international lawyers have ways that can ensure this is locked in prior to stopping ICSID/ICC, but I'd like to know what the mechanism is.

Not keen on going back to square one and starting again.

 

[Azzler]

So you think:
- CATH is going to build a mine on HALF the tenement we're entitled to
- So they can let Zijin build a SEPARATE mine right next door
- ...and then buy stuff from Zijin that they could have owned and mined themselves??

Not a chance.
We fought for the north as a tiny Minnow.
CATH will squash Zijin, exert the same CCP pressure that Zijin does and then some, offer hydroxide plant as a sweeteners, and we will develop the whole site.

I really don't understand why people think the involvement of CATH thinks we're suddenly likely to just roll over and give up the north.
WE want it all
CATH wants it all.

Why - the hell - would we cave now.

If I'm understanding the situation correctly, it's not caving in, it's realising the complete mess this is and taking the best way out, with the primary intention of making money and not that of seeking justice.

It's believed that if Zijin are told to pack their bags, they sue DRC.
Added to that many DRC corrupt officials can be exposed by Zijin if they so choose to.
Zijin have deliberately put themselves into this position for this exact reason, leverage.

So a negociated outcome where everyone gets a piece of the pie is the only sane path forward.
There is an undercurrent amongst the murmers I hear that Zijin will be made ot pay for the north, and wont just get it all for their Bribes they've payed. However this is just murmers.

CATH may yet manouver against Zijin, I hear they don't like them very much, and as wealthy as Zijin are, CATH are wealthier still by a fair bit.
I'm sure they want the lot, but they also don't want to be left out of this massive deposit.
You make out like they will take the lot or nothing at all, that's absurd. This is an important asset to battery manufacturers to secure a supply from.

 

[Mute22]

I know we are in a legal battle and not a war for public opinion, but fuck me it would be nice to get some fair media coverage within Australia.

Does anybody know if AVZ is providing a direct media release or doing outreach to amenable journalists for good news? Clearly all the AFR employees have it out for us and are all in on IGO/LTR.

You would think the largest battery manufacturer in the world backing the largest lithium play on planet earth might be worth a mention?

 

[JNRB]

- Letting zijin TAKE the north for the sake of convenience and not wanting to hurt peoples feelings = caving.
- Zijin being forced to PAY for the north = vert different outcome.

"You make out like they will take the lot or nothing at all, that's absurd"

in what way did I imply that? My assertion is that CATH WANTS it all, as do we, and has the incentive to FIGHT for it, as we have.
Difference being we were fighting with a sharpened spoon against Zijins AK-47. CATH will drive in with a tank.

IF we decide to give up something in negotiations - in the interest of expediting production -, you can rest assured it will be a hell of a lot less now than it would have been a week ago.

The point being our incentive and ability to fight for the North has INCREASED. Not decreased as everyone seems to be implying.
So has our position in any negotiation. But it will still be a FIGHT. Just now it's a very different match up.

And as for the paaaw widdle cowupt DRC officials that might get sued by Zijin....
Fuk em. Not our problem. And also not guaranteed to ever happen. If "legal" action is what concerns them, what do you think is a bigger problem? All of AVZ's current, advanced international arbitration disputes? Or *potential* action from their other corrupt partner for a minor share in a part of a tenement that they priced at an absurdly low value.
- Both zijin and MoM etc are corrupt, and will likely be happy if they can slink away unscathed to try their shenanigans somewhere else.



I'm ok with everyone getting a piece of the pie.
My origional solution was to let Zijin have 'the North'
but just redefine 'the north' to be the size of a postage stamp.
That's their piece.

 

[Mute22]

I know we are in a legal battle and not a war for public opinion, but fuck me it would be nice to get some fair media coverage within Australia.

Does anybody know if AVZ is providing a direct media release or doing outreach to amenable journalists for good news? Clearly all the AFR employees have it out for us and are all in on IGO/LTR.

You would think the largest battery manufacturer in the world backing the largest lithium play on planet earth might be worth a mention?

I mean seriously, look at the latest headlines? If we are serious about ever relisting, we need an actual PR strategy - starting TODAY.

The average punter out of the loop, just reading the headlines would think Zijin is about to start mining and AVZ has been caught bribing officials, whereas the opposite is much closer to reality.

I don't work directly in PR, but adjacent - it's very frustrating to watch the selective stories in the media will pickup in a nano-second while we don't seem to be on the front foot with positive news.

 

[Stockinvesting]

Anyone thinking Felix or his representatives weren't involved in these negotiations is kidding themselves.

I believe instructions have been given to Zijin by DRC, although what they could be is anyone's guess.

Further, the tone of the announcement leads me to believe we're closer to seeing an end to this saga, sooner than most people think.

A fantastic announcement and result.

 

[SilentOne]

If I'm understanding the situation correctly, it's not caving in, it's realising the complete mess this is and taking the best way out, with the primary intention of making money and not that of seeking justice.

It's believed that if Zijin are told to pack their bags, they sue DRC.
Added to that many DRC corrupt officials can be exposed by Zijin if they so choose to.
Zijin have deliberately put themselves into this position for this exact reason, leverage.

So a negociated outcome where everyone gets a piece of the pie is the only sane path forward.
There is an undercurrent amongst the murmers I hear that Zijin will be made ot pay for the north, and wont just get it all for their Bribes they've payed. However this is just murmers.

CATH may yet manouver against Zijin, I hear they don't like them very much, and as wealthy as Zijin are, CATH are wealthier still by a fair bit.
I'm sure they want the lot, but they also don't want to be left out of this massive deposit.
You make out like they will take the lot or nothing at all, that's absurd. This is an important asset to battery manufacturers to secure a supply from.

Azzler,

In my opinion I believe you are completely wrong - Zijin have no case to bring in my opinion against the DRC unless you are saying that bribing government officials is legal. The money that was paid as I understand it never found its way into DRC Treasury and it was in breach of the Joint Venture Agreement. In my opinion Zijin have not followed the mining code so I dont see the legal argument that they can bring - the ICC and ICSID I would suggest would throw out any case and simply laugh - thinking that one of their own are simply trying to prank them.

I cant see any claim that Zijin would have and no doubt they would just embarrass themselves - they would simply be better off to fade into the sunset and try and take advantage of another 3rd world country.

The DRC would not have a problem in strengthening their own position by calling out fraud and prosecuting any government officials that had compromised themselves and received benefits.

Nope, Dathcom is entitled to the full tenement and its not a difficult argument to prosecute.

But after 3 red wines what would I know.

But hey just my thoughts.

SilentOne

 

[tonster66]

Nigel was asked directly the question at the 22 agm, “have we given up the north” his reply was that we have not. When I invested it was for 13359 , all of it. Nothing has changed is my understanding