AVZ Discussion 2022

[JasonM]

certainly wasnt expecting this, seems to be very left field. overall I take this cautiously optimistically. caution as I dont trust the fucking chinese and wish we didnt need to deal with them but perhaps the reality of the situation is we have to in order to get out of this fucking mess. I think its a positive to have a chinese company in our corner and so chances of moving this forward have increased and likewise chances of a western company buying out avz has also increased.

This deal is massive vote of confidence, as is the $10m unsecured imo.

 

[Bray]

Better the devil you know as they say

 

[Mute22]

We were always going to be tied at the hip to CATH/CATL is some regards, and I am glad they are serious about the relationship despite other Chinese company interests.

Chinese to plough US$400m into AVZ lithium project

In one fell swoop lithium developer, AVZ Minerals has locked down US$400 million in funding, a serious off-take partner and Chinese backers with very deep pockets and an intimate understanding of lithium battery manufacturing.

thewest.com.au

The continued commitment by the worlds largest battery producer is powerful show of confidence to DRC they can have their cake and eat it too, if Zijin can to be pushed out of the picture the West and Chinese are both happy.

I have far more confidence now that the DRC, as they have been stating, will let this go through the courts and then sacrifice some scapegoats at the alter of 'fighting corruption'.

 

[dollarbills]

Could this be a sign the Chinese have conceded and CATL have set themselves up a slightly better deal (plus lowered the valuation) prior to Zijin offering to buyout AVZ's share?

 

[Skar]

certainly wasnt expecting this, seems to be very left field. overall I take this cautiously optimistically. caution as I dont trust the fucking chinese and wish we didnt need to deal with them but perhaps the reality of the situation is we have to in order to get out of this fucking mess. I think its a positive to have a chinese company in our corner and so chances of moving this forward have increased and likewise chances of a western company buying out avz has also increased.

This deal is massive vote of confidence, as is the $10m unsecured imo.

Zijin wants to start mining 2026, US blacklists CATL from military contracts, AVZ uses Locke deal to leverage a slightly better deal from CATH. Rio bought arcadium, PLL+SYA merging (and PLL selling A11 shares), so seems like there are a few things bubbling away.

I have bottom drawed all my lithium holdings because of how cold things are now but a few things I am inferring - US only cares about weakening China (but doesn't really want much to do with Africa beyond that). EV/Electrification in US will likely not accelerate like was predicted in early 2020s.... they kicked the can down the road and likely its another 3-5 years before another big lithium boom, at which point HOPEFULLY AVZ is at a point it can be sold and we haven't been diluted too much.

 

[BRICK]

Better the devil you know as they say

100 fucking percent.

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

Chinese don’t think the way we western do. If going by what’s been published this “deal” will allow legal access on the tenement. Once that occurs they will be impossible to remove especially with this capital expenditure funding agreement and grey repayment clause. They will do a Mali and LLL and squeeze AVZ for the whole company in collaboration with DRC government. Once the foots in the door they will do everything to get it all. This just accelerates that aggressive and illegal takeover.

A slight positive you could take from that is that we have an opportunity to get our money back? With all of this shit fuckery I suspect a lot of people who planned on this being a long-term/retirement fund hold will be out the door when an opportunity arises.*

*I will be one of them, I've gone from looking at this as a 10 year hold, debt free early retirement to a 'can I one day pay off 25% of my mortgage?'


Anywho, hey guys hope you are all doing well!

I see this announcement as a huge positive. Am I also reading it correctly that it looks like CATH are basically going to fund the first stage of development? Been out of the loop for a bit and don't know what to think anymore.


P.S I'm going to be in Freemantle on the 21st of Feb and my plan is to have a beer in every pub in Freo while my mates go to Rottnest for the day if anyone wants to catch up for a beer

 

[hedrox]

And thank you Zijin Mining for finishing our mining camp...

 

[hedrox]

Our green and white crane truck is back on side ....

 

[Hodlandwin69]

The way I read it, "30.5% indirect interest in Manono project through acquisition of shares in green lithium holdings" is 30.5% of the Manono project, so would be 40.66% of GLH (if ICSID and DRC say we own 75% of Manono). Not sure how it can be read your way (no offence)

"First deal was 24% for $240mil. ~1 Bil MC
This deal 30% for $280mil. ~0.86 Bil MC"

Previous deal was 24% of Dathcom.
This is 30.5% of GLH (currently 75% of Dathcom)

So roughly similar valuation looks like.

 

[Mute22]

A slight positive you could take from that is that we have an opportunity to get our money back? With all of this shit fuckery I suspect a lot of people who planned on this being a long-term/retirement fund hold will be out the door when an opportunity arises.*

*I will be one of them, I've gone from looking at this as a 10 year hold, debt free early retirement to a 'can I one day pay off 25% of my mortgage?'


Anywho, hey guys hope you are all doing well!

I see this announcement as a huge positive. Am I also reading it correctly that it looks like CATH are basically going to fund the first stage of development? Been out of the loop for a bit and don't know what to think anymore.


P.S I'm going to be in Freemantle on the 21st of Feb and my plan is to have a beer in every pub in Freo while my mates go to Rottnest for the day if anyone wants to catch up for a beer

Shareholder expectations regarding a potential buyout or exit strategy are going to be pretty mixed. The key question on everyone's mind is, what is the minimum threshold that management would even consider presenting after all this?

With lithium prices currently depressed, I don't know much about valuing the life of the project, but will be challenging to justify a valuation that satisfies investors who bought in at prices exceeding $1.30 or near ATH in the current market.

 

[PhatCatz]

Do we still have controlling interest even if the Chinese get everything else? And we don’t get the first right to buy etc. but the Chinese do?

 

[Hodlandwin69]

Do we still have controlling interest even if the Chinese get everything else? And we don’t get the first right to buy etc. but the Chinese do?

Sounds like. Say we end up with 60% and cominiere get away with selling 15% and dathomir get their 15% back. CATH will get 30.5% stake in manonon indirectly. So AVZ via GLH will hold 60% with CATH having indirect exposure. Technically they have a higher ownership of 30.5% (more than half ours) but it's indirect so they still answer to the board I guess.....
But yeh hopefully we end up with at least more than 60%....

 

[PhatCatz]

Sounds like. Say we end up with 60% and cominiere get away with selling 15% and dathomir get their 15% back. CATH will get 30.5% stake in manonon indirectly. So AVZ via GLH will hold 60% with CATH having indirect exposure. Technically they have a higher ownership of 30.5% (more than half ours) but it's indirect so they still answer to the board I guess.....
But yeh hopefully we end up with at least more than 60%....

thanks for the response. I wonder how this will play out with the voting rights etc.

but it seems a good news at first glance but with most things Chinese there is always a longer-term goal here that is in their best interests. They want complete control and having more influence and voting rights could sway for a cheap takeover vote at a later date.

but at least things are progressing. I wonder if the company advertising it won't need Locke means we have already closed that option? crazy to do IMO. I'd have liked to keep that open but just don't draw down on it if games are played... and money goes ":missing"

 

[TheCount]

Zijin wants to start mining 2026, US blacklists CATL from military contracts, AVZ uses Locke deal to leverage a slightly better deal from CATH. Rio bought arcadium, PLL+SYA merging (and PLL selling A11 shares), so seems like there are a few things bubbling away.

I have bottom drawed all my lithium holdings because of how cold things are now but a few things I am inferring - US only cares about weakening China (but doesn't really want much to do with Africa beyond that). EV/Electrification in US will likely not accelerate like was predicted in early 2020s.... they kicked the can down the road and likely its another 3-5 years before another big lithium boom, at which point HOPEFULLY AVZ is at a point it can be sold and we haven't been diluted too much.

There is also discussions surrounding Saudi, UAE etc sniffing around.

The latest 3 videos from 121 Mining reveal some basic info, here's one....

121 Mining on M&A

TC.

 

[Ashlee]

I was worried I'd made a mistake somewhere in my roughing it out, and very glad the correction aparently works in our favour

Curious why the change though.

Maybe AVZ will re-list on Singapore market.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

The same creeps who tried to squeeze us out now want a better deal, lol, fuck these mofo's. Anywho, let's hope we can get our money back soon, nothing else matters at this stage

CATH is its own independent company. Regardless of their friendliness or not with the board, they are obliged to vote and act in the best interest of their own company, which I guess, at the time, was with MAGA. They were probably promised something good if MAGA won and probably thought AVZ was dead, but now AVZ is alive and they're on board I guess. CATH had no reason to go down with, what they thought, was a sinking ship.

Do we crucify them for abandoning us out of spite, or just make it water under the bridge as long as they support us? I for one would like a big CATL associate batting in our corner with likely fully sorted offtake agreements by the time we are producing (it we get there)

 

[M.Bison]

Best announcement I have seen from AVZ in probably 2 years. CATH now funding our legal battles against Zijin. I can't help but be happy about this.

 

[Xerof]

Relationship Deed


The relationship deed between AVZ and CATH provides for:
- a restriction on any disposal of AVZ shares by CATH (or any of its associates) to certain prohibited
parties; Zijin, MAGA cunts
- an undertaking by CATH (and each of its associates holding AVZ shares) to extend certain agreed
supports to AVZ; and vote in favour of resolutions
- for CATH to provide reasonable assistance to AVZ in respect of certain shareholder-related
proceedings. Fund WASC proceedings v MAGA cunts

 

[wombat74]

I like this bit : "AVZ and CATH have agreed to work collaboratively to constructively engage with the DRC Government to secure and accelerate the development of the Manono Project."

Looks to me like we have found a way to satisfy a possible negotiated outcome . Zijin/CCP get their slice , The DRC Gov avoid the ICSID and AVZ get out of this f--king Mess .