certainly wasnt expecting this, seems to be very left field. overall I take this cautiously optimistically. caution as I dont trust the fucking chinese and wish we didnt need to deal with them but perhaps the reality of the situation is we have to in order to get out of this fucking mess. I think its a positive to have a chinese company in our corner and so chances of moving this forward have increased and likewise chances of a western company buying out avz has also increased.
This deal is massive vote of confidence, as is the $10m unsecured imo.
100 fucking percent.Better the devil you know as they say
Chinese don’t think the way we western do. If going by what’s been published this “deal” will allow legal access on the tenement. Once that occurs they will be impossible to remove especially with this capital expenditure funding agreement and grey repayment clause. They will do a Mali and LLL and squeeze AVZ for the whole company in collaboration with DRC government. Once the foots in the door they will do everything to get it all. This just accelerates that aggressive and illegal takeover.
"First deal was 24% for $240mil. ~1 Bil MC
This deal 30% for $280mil. ~0.86 Bil MC"
Previous deal was 24% of Dathcom.
This is 30.5% of GLH (currently 75% of Dathcom)
So roughly similar valuation looks like.
Shareholder expectations regarding a potential buyout or exit strategy are going to be pretty mixed. The key question on everyone's mind is, what is the minimum threshold that management would even consider presenting after all this?A slight positive you could take from that is that we have an opportunity to get our money back? With all of this shit fuckery I suspect a lot of people who planned on this being a long-term/retirement fund hold will be out the door when an opportunity arises.*
*I will be one of them, I've gone from looking at this as a 10 year hold, debt free early retirement to a 'can I one day pay off 25% of my mortgage?'
Anywho, hey guys hope you are all doing well!
I see this announcement as a huge positive. Am I also reading it correctly that it looks like CATH are basically going to fund the first stage of development? Been out of the loop for a bit and don't know what to think anymore.
P.S I'm going to be in Freemantle on the 21st of Feb and my plan is to have a beer in every pub in Freo while my mates go to Rottnest for the day if anyone wants to catch up for a beer![]()
Sounds like. Say we end up with 60% and cominiere get away with selling 15% and dathomir get their 15% back. CATH will get 30.5% stake in manonon indirectly. So AVZ via GLH will hold 60% with CATH having indirect exposure. Technically they have a higher ownership of 30.5% (more than half ours) but it's indirect so they still answer to the board I guess.....Do we still have controlling interest even if the Chinese get everything else? And we don’t get the first right to buy etc. but the Chinese do?
thanks for the response. I wonder how this will play out with the voting rights etc.Sounds like. Say we end up with 60% and cominiere get away with selling 15% and dathomir get their 15% back. CATH will get 30.5% stake in manonon indirectly. So AVZ via GLH will hold 60% with CATH having indirect exposure. Technically they have a higher ownership of 30.5% (more than half ours) but it's indirect so they still answer to the board I guess.....
But yeh hopefully we end up with at least more than 60%....
There is also discussions surrounding Saudi, UAE etc sniffing around.Zijin wants to start mining 2026, US blacklists CATL from military contracts, AVZ uses Locke deal to leverage a slightly better deal from CATH. Rio bought arcadium, PLL+SYA merging (and PLL selling A11 shares), so seems like there are a few things bubbling away.
I have bottom drawed all my lithium holdings because of how cold things are now but a few things I am inferring - US only cares about weakening China (but doesn't really want much to do with Africa beyond that). EV/Electrification in US will likely not accelerate like was predicted in early 2020s.... they kicked the can down the road and likely its another 3-5 years before another big lithium boom, at which point HOPEFULLY AVZ is at a point it can be sold and we haven't been diluted too much.
Maybe AVZ will re-list on Singapore market.I was worried I'd made a mistake somewhere in my roughing it out, and very glad the correction aparently works in our favour
Curious why the change though.
CATH is its own independent company. Regardless of their friendliness or not with the board, they are obliged to vote and act in the best interest of their own company, which I guess, at the time, was with MAGA. They were probably promised something good if MAGA won and probably thought AVZ was dead, but now AVZ is alive and they're on board I guess. CATH had no reason to go down with, what they thought, was a sinking ship.The same creeps who tried to squeeze us out now want a better deal, lol, fuck these mofo's. Anywho, let's hope we can get our money back soon, nothing else matters at this stage