The emphasis was on the last sentence : "Or does Nigel think we are so close now an explanation at this point is not necessary"
. DYOR
AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
. DYOR
Frank
Top 20
*Fyi, re:- Lithium coys are turning the wheel nicely making some nice gains..Correct me if i am wrong, but that extra 15% was never a given, it was to be negotiated.
Mr market valued AVZ as having 51% control up until the extended suspension.
Agree with you in the aspect that Zijin needs to compensate AVZ for devedlopment costs aleady spent plus an added premium of snacks for being a sneaky weasel...........
Aagh, who the fuck knows...........just gotta wait it out, meanwhile as @John25 has stated, lithium coys are turning the wheel nicely making some nice gains..
LTR 88 - 149, GLN 96 - 131, PLS 206 - 285, AKE 10 - 11.72 etc
FRUSTRATING indeed @Frank
imo
Lithium exports go parabolic, set to contribute $9.4b to Australiaâs economy by 2023-24
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) says lithium is forecast to contribute $9.4 billion in revenue to our economy by 2023-24.Not really surprising since Australia is the worldâs biggest exporter of lithium.
âAustralian exports of lithium are primarily in the form of spodumene concentrate however as global demand grows, several Australian lithium mines are commencing production of lithium hydroxide,â the ABS said.
In June 2022 exports passed $1b
For most of 2021, monthly lithium exports didnât exceed $250m, but exports values more than doubled from November to December 2021.From April 2022 to May 2022, exports of lithium almost doubled again, and in June 2022 surpassed a massive $1 billion for the first time.
In June 2022, exports of lithium concentrates reached a record high of $1,163m, up $1,073m (1189%) from June month 2021.
And for the June quarter 2022, total lithium exports were $2,632m, up $2,318m (737%) from the June quarter 2021.
WA exported and China imported
WA accounted for over 99% of Australian lithium exports in each month since January 2021.And China is the one buying it all.
In 2021 China accounted for over 85% of total value in each month of 2021 and in 2022, they accounted for over 94% in each month of the year to date.
Breaking that down into monetary value, in June 2022, $1,128m worth of lithium was exported to China.
Thatâs around 97% of the total lithium exports for that month.
Mining stocks are cheap like itâs 2008.
So whatâs MineLife founder Gavin Wendt backing for 2022, and beyond?
Earlier this week we came across this fine-looking chart, showing just how unpopular US mining stocks are right now:Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E) is a handy way for analysts and investors to understand whether markets are overvaluing or undervaluing a stock by comparing the price of a companyâs stock to the earnings it generates.
It is calculated by dividing a companyâs current stock price by its earnings per share. Eddy Sunarto has a fine explainer of how it works and why itâs a favourite tool here.
2008 â the last time mining companies were this cheap â was an exceptionally volatile time for the metals and mining industry.
Aluminium and copper prices hit record levels during 2008 but by the end of the year aluminium, copper, nickel and zinc had declined 55.5%, 67.8%, 67.5% and 60.3%, respectively, from their 2008 highs. Manic.
This was driven by slowing growth in China, the collapse in liquidity and downgrades to the global economic outlook.
Sound familiar?
In 2022 thus far we have seen declines of 15% for aluminium, 22% for copper, 37% for tin and 12% iron ore for many of the same reasons.
The Aussie version of same P/E chart above is a bit healthier but following a similar trend to the S&P500.
It indicates that investors are predicting greater commodity price weakness ahead, which is going to impact company earnings.
Is that too bearish an outlook, or just about right?
MineLife analyst Gavin Wendt says the downturn is understandable, but at the same time indicates that there is medium to long-term value in the sector given the commodity rush is ongoing.âPerhaps markets are looking at the commodity cycle and saying, âwe are selling down resources stocks because we anticipate that the existing downturn is going to be more prolongedâ,â he told Stockhead.
âIt could also mean investors are just taking their money out of the resources sector; in fact, many are probably taking their money out of everything right now and putting it into cash,â he says.
It could also just be a short-lived dip, Wendt says.
âInvestors tend to get a little bit nervous about the resource sector when you talk about recessions, issues with China, and stagflation,â he says.
âIt could turn around quite quickly over the coming months if we start to see China implement some really meaningful stimulus in order to get their construction sector, and the broader economy, going again.â
Gavinâs favourite commodities right now are âŠ
The resources sector is a broad church; demand drivers can differ dramatically between commodities.
As such, some metals will always perform better than others.
Which sectors does Wendt like best for the remainder of 2022 and beyond?
LITHIUM
âI think the lithium sector is still the standout,â he says.
âItâs been a cocktail of negative factors since the start of 2022 â with the Ukraine war, inflation, rising interest rates, question marks over China. Meanwhile, the lithium price has just held up outstandingly well.
âWe also had lockdowns in China which means consumers have not been out there consuming â that would be having a big impact on EV purchasing in China.
âThere is a lot of pent-up demand there.
âBut over the same period companies have been generating great profits from really strong lithium pricing.â
If lithium and lithium companies can perform that solidly during a significant period of market uncertainty then there is still a lot of upside there, Wendt says.
Demand destruction for lithium?
Not until people stop buying EVs, Pilbara Minerals says
Think demand destruction is coming for lithium?Folks need to stop buying electric vehicles first. Just ask new Pilbara Minerals boss Dale Henderson.
PLS has the hot hand right now, the company that more than any other has exemplified the stunning rise of the lithium sector over the past 18 months.
Average prices for its spodumene from the Pilgangoora mine ran at US$4,267/dmt in the June quarter, powering a $590 million cash build at margins that would make Rio Tinto blush.
Spot prices are even higher.
Fastmarkets estimates they are trading at US$6625/t, Platts a tick lower at US$6100/t, not unreasonable given downstream chemicals are fetching more than US$70,000/t.
Its latest Battery Materials Exchange auction announced yesterday pulled US$6350/t for a 5.5% Li2O spodumene concentrate.
Will chemical converters, automakers and battery companies get fed up with these prices, in some cases almost 10 times what they were paying in late 2020?
âThatâs the big one everyone grapples with. What I find amazing about whatâs unfolding is I talk about a birth of a new industry for lithium, but itâs a whole birth of an EV industry, all happening at the same time,â Henderson said.
âIf we just take the EV, where does the cost base go? Ultimately, if the battery can own a higher proportion of the EV cost because youâre saving on all the other stuff, does that enable that to propagate back through to high commodity costs?
âWho knows? Demand destruction I feel will only occur when the person buying the EV says âno, that carâs got too expensive, Iâm gonna go buy my combustion engine carâ.
âI think thatâs what creates demand destruction. Now, we havenât seen that yet because weâre still seeing sold out EVs and all the rest of it. But when we start getting indicators that people are going âbugger the EV Iâll take the dirty dieselâ well, I think that would definitely equal demand destruction.â
More Food for thought on a Friday my Friends and Fellow SH's
Cheers
Frank
He's been thinking we're close since like October 2021 lolThe emphasis was on the last sentence : "Or does Nigel think we are so close now an explanation at this point is not necessary"
Ahahah bloody hell that's depressing
The Fox
Regular
How the F would you know what has and hasn't been sorted. Are you on the Board? are you part of the AVZ legal team? The market will be informed in due course, or you can speculate until the cows come home. Poop your pants if you want, or have faith that because issues are in front of the courts or under Government action details cannot be provided to your satisfaction. Up to you dude how you spend your days, as for me, I don't have to wear nappies and expect a positive outcome for shareholders. Cheers The FoxHmm let's think
What has been sorted so far in our long list of shitshow bullshit?
Ah yeah that's right - nothing.
15th a pipe dream imo.
Samus
Top 20
No need to be so rude I would have thought?How the F would you know what has and hasn't been sorted. Are you on the Board? are you part of the AVZ legal team? The market will be informed in due course, or you can speculate until the cows come home. Poop your pants if you want, or have faith that because issues are in front of the courts or under Government action details cannot be provided to your satisfaction. Up to you dude how you spend your days, as for me, I don't have to wear nappies and expect a positive outcome for shareholders. Cheers The Fox
The Fox
Regular
Well, no need to be so pessimistic, mine is an appropriate response to claims of a long list off shitshow and bullshit which in fact is a couple of unexpected items that are being sorted out by AVZ, don't believe the trolls and the down ramping hyperbole.No need to be so rude I would have thought?
So many are like, Oh the sky is falling, Oh the sky is falling, if the sky unexpectedly falls, we will all know, until that time, I'd rely on ASX announcements only.
Have a great weekend !!!
Cheers The Fox
Samus
Top 20
I don't believe it's an appropriate response to start swearing and carrying on at fellow shareholders.
I'm actually cool calm and collected and none of the things you suggest above, having a bit of a laugh with the folks who understand my angle.
If you don't, don't give it a thumbs up and if you are going to respond it's not that hard to keep it a bit civil.
Regards trading by the 15th, hope so and you are right that I have NFI beyond what we've heard through asx (bugger all), digging every day for any fresh information shedding further light on the matter and sharing anything relevant on this platform. However the feeling I'm getting based on the information that we do have available is that it's probably going to take a bit more time to sort out these "couple of unexpected items". Given the media spotlight on the situation it'd be a reasonable expectation that we may very well hear of any positive outcomes before they're officially released to market (imo).
Shitshow and bullshit are expressive of situations such as our partner CominiĂšre in Dathcom selling percentages of the project against the jv agreement and of Dathomir allegedly rendering AVZ's previous 15% purchase nul and void through corrupt Congolese courts. Not to mention the Chinese angle and likely political pressures associated with this. The tenement being split against Congolese mining laws and things like the situation of CominiĂšre seemingly blocking the passage of AVZ's mining rights through CAMI aided by the director of that entity. Recent articles seeming to suggest that CominiĂšre are actually attempting to oust AVZ's from Dathcom under false allegations and lies.
All this ongoing after CominiĂšre have been exposed as corrupt by the Congolese anti-corruption watchdog the IGF and Jules Alingete Key some 6 months ago.
We've heard no sign of a resolution to any of the above issues or the arbitration proceedings.
Everyone is frustrated with the situation, lighten up a bit.
Last edited:
The Fox
Regular
Nice post, and with some exertion, nice move taking the high ground.
Have a good weekend all.
Sammy_da_Smile
Regular
Hmm another company in DRC going via arbitration to sort out share holding 
Red Rock Resources updates shareholders on DRC arbitration proceedings
Red Rock Resources PLC (AIM:RRR) issued a statement after a recent management trip to Kinshasa to participate in arbitration proceedings.
The company also provided a review of current projects.
The arbitration proceedings in the DRC the company is pursuing refer to claims to its share of the sale proceeds of the key assets of a joint venture, which were disposed of without the company's knowledge, with US$15m of these proceeds held by the buyer of those assets pending the result of the arbitration.
"In the light of shareholder speculation, we wish to set out to the best of our understanding the current situation," said Red Rock chairman Andrew Bell.
"After several hearings, which clarified the factual background, the arbitrators urged us and the other party to negotiate between ourselves before the arbitration concluded to arrive at, if possible, an agreed outcome.
"A compromise, which represented a significant discount to what we believe to be our entitlement, but which exceeded 50% of the amount still retained by the buyer, was put to us and in the circumstances where we believed it was accepted by the other party and in deference to the wishes of the arbitrator at that time for an agreed solution, we were minded to concede, though with reluctance.
"Subsequently it appeared that the representative and negotiator of the other party had either lacked authority or had changed his mind, and the negotiation ended without agreement. We now continue to assert our claim to over 50% of the total $20m principal paid or to be paid, plus damages.
"The arbitral award, when and if made, and we hope it may be soon, will not now reflect a consensus arising from the negotiation of the parties, but the decision of the arbitrators. As we await it, we must consider a range of possible outcomes, and uncertainties of timing, but continue to press for a just solution which includes a resolution of the earlier court proceedings.
"We emphasise that although we are confident in our case, it cannot be assumed that an award will be made, or that it will be at or above any previously discussed level."
Bell said the company continues its activities elsewhere, with a highlight being New Ballarat Gold Corporation bringing two high quality and historic assets into the portfolio, which he said "takes that company to a new level".
Red Rock was also able to announce the beginning of a small drilling campaign on two excellent targets in Burkina Faso.
Red Rock Resources updates shareholders on DRC arbitration proceedings
Red Rock Resources PLC (AIM:RRR) issued a statement after a recent management trip to Kinshasa to participate in arbitration proceedings. The company also...
www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk
Red Rock Resources updates shareholders on DRC arbitration proceedings
Red Rock Resources PLC (AIM:RRR) issued a statement after a recent management trip to Kinshasa to participate in arbitration proceedings.
The company also provided a review of current projects.
The arbitration proceedings in the DRC the company is pursuing refer to claims to its share of the sale proceeds of the key assets of a joint venture, which were disposed of without the company's knowledge, with US$15m of these proceeds held by the buyer of those assets pending the result of the arbitration.
"In the light of shareholder speculation, we wish to set out to the best of our understanding the current situation," said Red Rock chairman Andrew Bell.
"After several hearings, which clarified the factual background, the arbitrators urged us and the other party to negotiate between ourselves before the arbitration concluded to arrive at, if possible, an agreed outcome.
"A compromise, which represented a significant discount to what we believe to be our entitlement, but which exceeded 50% of the amount still retained by the buyer, was put to us and in the circumstances where we believed it was accepted by the other party and in deference to the wishes of the arbitrator at that time for an agreed solution, we were minded to concede, though with reluctance.
"Subsequently it appeared that the representative and negotiator of the other party had either lacked authority or had changed his mind, and the negotiation ended without agreement. We now continue to assert our claim to over 50% of the total $20m principal paid or to be paid, plus damages.
"The arbitral award, when and if made, and we hope it may be soon, will not now reflect a consensus arising from the negotiation of the parties, but the decision of the arbitrators. As we await it, we must consider a range of possible outcomes, and uncertainties of timing, but continue to press for a just solution which includes a resolution of the earlier court proceedings.
"We emphasise that although we are confident in our case, it cannot be assumed that an award will be made, or that it will be at or above any previously discussed level."
Bell said the company continues its activities elsewhere, with a highlight being New Ballarat Gold Corporation bringing two high quality and historic assets into the portfolio, which he said "takes that company to a new level".
Red Rock was also able to announce the beginning of a small drilling campaign on two excellent targets in Burkina Faso.
Last edited:
Rediah
Regular
@JAGâs left/right nut is on the line here and I am sure we will reach some sort of negotiation/deal/compromise and wonât go all the way till the end in arbitrationHmm another company in DRC going via arbitration to sort out share holding
Red Rock Resources updates shareholders on DRC arbitration proceedings
Red Rock Resources PLC (AIM:RRR) issued a statement after a recent management trip to Kinshasa to participate in arbitration proceedings. The company also...www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk
Red Rock Resources updates shareholders on DRC arbitration proceedings
Red Rock Resources PLC (AIM:RRR) issued a statement after a recent management trip to Kinshasa to participate in arbitration proceedings.
The company also provided a review of current projects.
The arbitration proceedings in the DRC the company is pursuing refer to claims to its share of the sale proceeds of the key assets of a joint venture, which were disposed of without the company's knowledge, with US$15m of these proceeds held by the buyer of those assets pending the result of the arbitration.
"In the light of shareholder speculation, we wish to set out to the best of our understanding the current situation," said Red Rock chairman Andrew Bell.
"After several hearings, which clarified the factual background, the arbitrators urged us and the other party to negotiate between ourselves before the arbitration concluded to arrive at, if possible, an agreed outcome.
"A compromise, which represented a significant discount to what we believe to be our entitlement, but which exceeded 50% of the amount still retained by the buyer, was put to us and in the circumstances where we believed it was accepted by the other party and in deference to the wishes of the arbitrator at that time for an agreed solution, we were minded to concede, though with reluctance.
"Subsequently it appeared that the representative and negotiator of the other party had either lacked authority or had changed his mind, and the negotiation ended without agreement. We now continue to assert our claim to over 50% of the total $20m principal paid or to be paid, plus damages.
"The arbitral award, when and if made, and we hope it may be soon, will not now reflect a consensus arising from the negotiation of the parties, but the decision of the arbitrators. As we await it, we must consider a range of possible outcomes, and uncertainties of timing, but continue to press for a just solution which includes a resolution of the earlier court proceedings.
"We emphasise that although we are confident in our case, it cannot be assumed that an award will be made, or that it will be at or above any previously discussed level."
Bell said the company continues its activities elsewhere, with a highlight being New Ballarat Gold Corporation bringing two high quality and historic assets into the portfolio, which he said "takes that company to a new level".
Red Rock was also able to announce the beginning of a small drilling campaign on two excellent targets in Burkina Faso.
Sammy_da_Smile
Regular
Yeh will im guessing zijin won't settle for anything less than not being recognised as a share holder what ever the amount@JAGâs left/right nut is on the line here and I am sure we will reach some sort of negotiation/deal/compromise and wonât go all the way till the end in arbitration
I feel we will see this play out to get rid of them completely.
Mr Inappropriate
Regular
I acknowledge AVZ's confidence in a getting to a resolution in their/our favour, but they are well and truely up against it:
- We know that the DRC are sitting on a massive asset of global and strategic significance.
- We know that China play the long game, and are willling to do anything and everything to meet their own strategic objectives.
- For the outcome that we seek, AVZ is relying on the strength and integrity of DRC institutions / individuals that are famously fragile and/or corrupt.
- We live in an age of hyper-disinformation, and it works. i.e. shit sticks, no matter the facts.
Last edited:
Sammy_da_Smile
Regular
Don't know what to make of this coming from mines.cd website?
Similar threads
