AVZ Discussion 2022

[TheCount]

Freehold, what's the point of making money if you can't spend it?

"The proper function of man is to live, not to exist." (Jack London 1916)

I am forever in your debt for providing the life-changing opportunity of multi-multi bagging on AVZ and to think we're just at the first corner of the marathon race - it is truly exhilarating to think forward to the next twelve months down the path let alone five years...

And besides it is not a car - it's my new trading desk:-

Cheers,
TC.

 

[Freehold]

Well of the course the ML by DRC law is now a done deal. So those hanging on/ biting their nails waiting for when the actual formal Ann is going to be made is well a waste of time IMO. Unless of course you are (a) planning to the sell the news or (b) your investment is deep in the red.

We are going mining. Its now a fact. there is no debate here!

When the actual bit of paper arrives or the official DRC award ceremony is had is superfluous to me personally. I would expect that having received the tick on Technicals would be trigger for AVZ MGMT to sign drill contracts and bridge/road works contracts. There will be a lead time on these starting of course as we wait for crews to mobilize and equipment to be relocated. This should not be too long as the wet season has well and truly past.

Of course the greater investment community (insto's) will need to wait for ML to be formally announced before they can start to act but the informed AVZ investor knows its a done deal (our only advantage over them I guess) . Don't expect all instos to rush the gates on day 1 either. They will consider and factor in macro environment/markets , their own balance sheet weightings , AVZ FA timelines , MGMT ability, Chart Technical analysis amongst many other factors etc etc before committing. Theses guys are pro's they know there might be a mini rush on day one and they will wait and buy pullbacks for instance. Most of these guys will trade for the mid to long term some will base decision on weekly or monthly charts for example.

 

[BEISHA]

Well of the course the ML by DRC law is now a done deal. So those hanging on/ biting their nails waiting for when the actual formal Ann is going to be made is well a waste of time IMO. Unless of course you are (a) planning to the sell the news or (b) your investment is deep in the red.

We are going mining. Its now a fact. there is no debate here!

When the actual bit of paper arrives or the official DRC award ceremony is had is superfluous to me personally. I would expect that having received the tick on Technicals would be trigger for AVZ MGMT to sign drill contracts and bridge/road works contracts. There will be a lead time on these starting of course as we wait for crews to mobilize and equipment to be relocated. This should not be too long as the wet season has well and truly past.

Of course the greater investment community (insto's) will need to wait for ML to formally announced before they can start to act but the informed AVZ investor knows its a done deal (our only advantage over them I guess) . Don't expect all instos to rush the gates on day 1 either. They will consider and factor in macro environment/markets , their own balance sheet weightings , AVZ FA timelines , MGMT ability, Chart Technical analysis amongst many other factors etc etc before committing. Theses guys are pro's they know there might be a mini rush on day one and they will wait and buy pullbacks for instance. These guys will trade for the mid to long term some will base decision on weekly or monthly charts for example.

Good post FH, you are the calming influence among AVZ.

Love your posts and your obvious experience.................is your job related to mining if i may ask ?

As i said before, the only concern i have is the chinese screwing AVZ over some how , that and the volatile MACRO .

Great to have you here.

imo

 

[Freehold]

Freehold, what's the point of making money if you can't spend it?

"The proper function of man is to live, not to exist." (Jack London 1916)

I am forever in your debt for providing the life-changing opportunity of multi-multi bagging on AVZ and to think we're just at the first corner of the marathon race - it is truly exhilarating to think forward to the next twelve months down the path let alone five years...

And besides it is not a car - it's my new trading desk:-

View attachment 5155

Cheers,
TC.

Well as you know it humbles me greatly that I was in some way helpful in your decision to invest in AVZ early on... but it takes a great deal personal fortitude and courage to commit a sizeable amount of $$ in a unproven penny dreadful and ride the bucking AVZ bull all these years and not be thrown off its back. There were times early on that even I had my moments especially during the troll fest era and the numerous sagas therein. The fact that AVZ was trolled so hard conversely showed me how desperate non holders were to get a position. They would do or say absolutely anything to get a lower fill.

So anyway nice trading office you have there. Mine looks more like a couple of second hand laptops on a old foldout Ikea table with a chair I found on the road side. Im Jealous.

 

[Hudnut]

Get your point Freeo

Reality is we really are just stuck waiting for the mining license

Agreed I think there's plenty of support in/around and just under $1 but there's sweet bugger all to do but wait

Unless of course you are looking at trading the pips or potentially topping up

A lot of the dudes here already have a significant investment in AVZ at very low average prices (some single digits) and so it's a waiting game

Last trading parcel I purchased was in the very low 70's

Thought about selling it as it approached the $1.40 mark but in the end decided to continue to hold ....most likely until maybe $2 and after 30 June and even then only if I need the cash

It's all about the ML

After that ....well then it's a different game again

Cheers
Nut

I could have written that myself, Nut. Just about identical situation. "Do I sell that trading parcel?.........Nup."

 

[Winenut]

Well of the course the ML by DRC law is now a done deal. So those hanging on/ biting their nails waiting for when the actual formal Ann is going to be made is well a waste of time IMO. Unless of course you are (a) planning to the sell the news or (b) your investment is deep in the red.

We are going mining. Its now a fact. there is no debate here!

When the actual bit of paper arrives or the official DRC award ceremony is had is superfluous to me personally. I would expect that having received the tick on Technicals would be trigger for AVZ MGMT to sign drill contracts and bridge/road works contracts. There will be a lead time on these starting of course as we wait for crews to mobilize and equipment to be relocated. This should not be too long as the wet season has well and truly past.

Of course the greater investment community (insto's) will need to wait for ML to be formally announced before they can start to act but the informed AVZ investor knows its a done deal (our only advantage over them I guess) . Don't expect all instos to rush the gates on day 1 either. They will consider and factor in macro environment/markets , their own balance sheet weightings , AVZ FA timelines , MGMT ability, Chart Technical analysis amongst many other factors etc etc before committing. Theses guys are pro's they know there might be a mini rush on day one and they will wait and buy pullbacks for instance. Most of these guys will trade for the mid to long term some will base decision on weekly or monthly charts for example.

Don't think MGMT want to sign too many contracts until the CATH money is in the bank

CATH money isn't in the bank 'cause despite the ML condition being waived in the agreement well......CATH still seem to think it actually is important

Yes AVZ have met all conditions for the ML to be issued with the last requirement being the favourable technical opinion

Yes the minister has 30 days to sign it all off or after that the court "can" issue the license

Does "can" automatically mean "will"?.....that I'm not yet 100% certain of

Even if the court "can" and do what is the timeframe for the court to action that?

Does it all have to be "considered" by the Court and if so what does that mean?

Are they up to speed on all these issues??? Is it as simple as a rubber stamp or is there another process to go through???

Will CATH continue to sit on their money and extend the deal and continue to hold out until the ML actually 100% crystalizes???

I don't think it's in the best interests of the DRC to delay in these matters (given Felix's desire to establish the battery hub and get the whole industry going)

The longer this is drawn out the more doubt there is that just lingers (warranted or not)

The longer CATH sits on it's funding and doesn't budge the longer the project is delayed and struggles to get momentum

The longer there is no momentum or activity the more likely that timelines for production are not met

These issues are simply not resolved until the ML is officially approved and then announced by the DRC Govt and AVZ

It's painful to be honest......and I've been holding for plenty of years now

 

[Freehold]

Good post FH, you are the calming influence among AVZ.

Love your posts and your obvious experience.................is your job related to mining if i may ask ?

As i said before, the only concern i have is the chinese screwing AVZ over some how , that and the volatile MACRO .

Great to have you here.

imo

My job I guess is as a full time investor so no not in mining industry game currently. I have been investing in ASX mining stocks for approx 35 years or so now. Full time investor for the last 20 odd years.

A stock will always have some risk as is the nature of the market. Chinese are a necessary risk at this time. But I see AVZ mitigating this risk as our output increases the US and Europe becoming increasingly major customers as demand for zero emissions Lithium output increases to fever pitch which will hedge that risk .

 

[bloke383]

Well of the course the ML by DRC law is now a done deal. So those hanging on/ biting their nails waiting for when the actual formal Ann is going to be made is well a waste of time IMO. Unless of course you are (a) planning to the sell the news or (b) your investment is deep in the red.

We are going mining. Its now a fact. there is no debate here!

When the actual bit of paper arrives or the official DRC award ceremony is had is superfluous to me personally. I would expect that having received the tick on Technicals would be trigger for AVZ MGMT to sign drill contracts and bridge/road works contracts. There will be a lead time on these starting of course as we wait for crews to mobilize and equipment to be relocated. This should not be too long as the wet season has well and truly past.

Of course the greater investment community (insto's) will need to wait for ML to be formally announced before they can start to act but the informed AVZ investor knows its a done deal (our only advantage over them I guess) . Don't expect all instos to rush the gates on day 1 either. They will consider and factor in macro environment/markets , their own balance sheet weightings , AVZ FA timelines , MGMT ability, Chart Technical analysis amongst many other factors etc etc before committing. Theses guys are pro's they know there might be a mini rush on day one and they will wait and buy pullbacks for instance. Most of these guys will trade for the mid to long term some will base decision on weekly or monthly charts for example.

Gday Freehold , When I saw the post yesterday that Blackrock is now on the register I naturally thought the worst (I'm always pessimistic) , & I saw your post saying that they are predatory Private equity which confirmed my concern . However a poster today said that Blackrock have to buy for the IOZ index fund . Do you think this might be a more likely/palatable reason for them showing up this time ?
Can someone tell me if Nigels 2nd presentation for axinocapital was last night or tonight please ?

 

[Winenut]

My job I guess is as a full time investor so no not in mining industry game currently. I have been investing in ASX mining stocks for approx 35 years or so now. Full time investor for the last 20 odd years.

A stock will always have some risk as is the nature of the market. Chinese are a necessary risk at this time. But I see AVZ mitigating this risk as our output increases the US and Europe becoming increasingly major customers as demand for zero emissions Lithium output increases to fever pitch which will hedge that risk .

Is that purely long term investing or trading along the way for beer money as well Freeo

Just wondering

 

[Freehold]

Don't think MGMT want to sign too many contracts until the CATH money is in the bank

CATH money isn't in the bank 'cause despite the ML condition being waived in the agreement well......CATH still seem to think it actually is important

Yes AVZ have met all conditions for the ML to be issued with the last requirement being the favourable technical opinion

Yes the minister has 30 days to sign it all off or after that the court "can" issue the license

Does "can" automatically mean "will"?.....that I'm not yet 100% certain of

Even if the court "can" and do what is the timeframe for the court to action that?

Does it all have to be "considered" by the Court and if so what does that mean?

Are they up to speed on all these issues??? Is it as simple as a rubber stamp or is there another process to go through???

Will CATH continue to sit on their money and extend the deal and continue to hold out until the ML actually 100% crystalizes???

I don't think it's in the best interests of the DRC to delay in these matters (given Felix's desire to establish the battery hub and get the whole industry going)

The longer this is drawn out the more doubt there is that just lingers (warranted or not)

The longer CATH sits on it's funding and doesn't budge the longer the project is delayed and struggles to get momentum

The longer there is no momentum or activity the more likely that timelines for production are not met

These issues are simply not resolved until the ML is officially approved and then announced by the DRC Govt and AVZ

It's painful to be honest......and I've been holding for plenty of years now

Well your wait will be over shortly then. CATH on speaking to the Felix committed to make investment unconditional and not wait for the ML. However if AVZ Mgmt were not willing to spend $$ until tick on DRC Tech opinion, then, I would not expect CATH to transfer funds either. Official ML may be catalyst for CATH $ transfer or perhaps they are moving $$ now. Remember CATH screaming for lithium supply. They will not delay unnecessarily. In my opinion CATH will be foolish to pull out of deal now. Where on the planet are they going to get access to such a large amount of high grade Spod and at such a low price as they agreed to last year. CATH will only pull out if they are financially unable to meet their commitment. This is very unlikely IMHO

 

[Freehold]

Gday Freehold , When I saw the post yesterday that Blackrock is now on the register I naturally thought the worst (I'm always pessimistic) , & I saw your post saying that they are predatory Private equity which confirmed my concern . However a poster today said that Blackrock have to buy for the IOZ index fund . Do you think this might be a more likely/palatable reason for them showing up this time ?
Can someone tell me if Nigels 2nd presentation for axinocapital was last night or tonight please ?

Historically they are predatory I don't know about the IOZ index fund that may be the case. Like it or not AVZ has a massive T/over target on its back. There will be cashed up miners as well as private equity running the ruler over AVZ because its simply the biggest and highest grade unmined lithium deposit that exists and high demand will not go away ....Its a massive future cash cow that will be close to zero emissions. So even more so a target once ML lands. However saying all this I would not expect a takeover to eventuate until we are on the cusp of mining. Let someone else do the hard yards then swoop in is what typically happens.

 

[Winenut]

Well your wait will be over shortly then. CATH on speaking to the Felix committed to make investment unconditional and not wait for the ML. However if AVZ Mgmt were not willing to spend $$ until tick on DRC Tech opinion, then, I would not expect CATH to transfer funds either. Official ML may be catalyst for CATH $ transfer or perhaps they are moving $$ now. Remember CATH screaming for lithium supply. They will not delay unnecessarily. In my opinion CATH will be foolish to pull out of deal now. Where on the planet are they going to get access to such a large amount of high grade Spod and at such a low price as they agreed to last year. CATH will only pull out if they are financially unable to meet their commitment. This is very unlikely IMHO

Absolutely don't think CATH would pull out

Yes they would be insane .....they are sitting on a deal where they've paid a very small amount for a 24% stake

Just think they are waiting for 100% confirmation that AVZ have the ML before handing over the cash

I wouldn't hand over money to AVZ if there was even a minute chance of them not getting the license

Of course that can all be dealt with in agreements but I know from experience it's VERY hard to get cash back once it's been handed over

It's fascinating to watch.....but all these considerations have already gone through my head a million times and again I'm just back to now crackin' a bottle or two and waiting patiently for it all to fall into place.....all in it's own good time!!

 

[Sammy_da_Smile]

Re reading the announcements surrounding the deal I can only think that the delays is linked to the extra equity required on their part to go to 10mtpa, which they requested. I'm thinking why transfer 240 amount, when sooner they'll have to fund an additional portion to meet 10mpta.

The studies should well be concluded by now, hence ML delay (re working site design etc etc), funding. Though not sure if they can change all that without an update BFS which includes all the additional costing metrics?

Just my thoughts.

 

[Frank]

Automakers go back to the future to secure battery metals​

Henry Ford was right all along, it turns out.

After decades of honing just-in-time global supply networks, car companies are going back to Ford’s founding principle of self-sufficiency.

Ford’s iconic River Rouge complex in Dearborn Michigan made its own iron and steel, supplied by company freighters from its own iron ore and coking coal mines in Michigan and Kentucky.

World War One had created material shortages and disrupted logistics. Ford’s answer was to take full ownership of the automotive supply chain from mine to product.

Auto companies are facing up the same problems today, compounded by the need to go electric, which means creating totally new metallic supply chains.

While Ford worried about iron ore and rubber, his successors are battling supply crunches and soaring prices in key battery inputs such as lithium, nickel and cobalt.

If “insane” lithium prices persist, tweeted Tesla CEO Elon Musk, the company “might have to get into the mining and refining directly at scale.”

He’s not the only automotive executive thinking about minerals self-sufficiency.

“Henry Ford … was right,” according to current incumbent CEO of Ford Motors F.N, Jim Farley.

“The most important thing is we vertically integrate.” The company intends to take control of its supply chains “all the way back to the mines.”

Lithium brakes​

The problem facing every automotive company is the surge in the cost of lithium-ion batteries, which has forced many, including Tesla, to raise electric vehicle (EV) prices.

Battery-pack costs had previously been on a long-term downtrend riding on the back of incremental technical improvements. The sudden turnaround in EV pricing threatens the collective goal of reaching price parity with internal combustion engines.

Runaway battery metal prices are to blame.

Cobalt has nearly tripled in price since the start of 2021. Nickel turned so wild in March the London Metal Exchange (LME) had to suspend trading. At a current $33,600 per tonne it is up 59% on the start of January.

Battery-makers have responded by using more lithium-iron-posphate chemistry, which doesn’t use either cobalt or nickel, but that has only served to tighten up the lithium market itself with spot prices doubling since the start of the year.

Metals accounted for 40% of battery costs in 2015, a ratio that has risen to 80% this year, according to consultancy Benchmark Minerals.

The common theme is of supply failing to react fast enough to a step-change in demand as EV sales accelerate and the world builds ever more gigafactories to supply the necessary batteries.

Prices may lose some of their recent heat but there are few who expect a full return to previous lower trading ranges.

That’s a big headache for every automaker. But for some it may prove existential.

Benchmark Minerals warns of the potential for supply deficits to grow over the coming years.

“Even in the most optimistic scenarios where every single raw material project in the pipeline comes on stream and existing operations expand aggressively, there will not be enough raw material for the battery supply chain as we go into 2030.”

Insufficient metals supply risks putting a brake on the EV revolution with those unable to source enough facing the prospect of lower output and slower roll-out times.

The industry’s current semiconductor problems “are a small appetizer to what we are about to feel on battery cells over the next two decades,” RJ Scaringe, CEO of EV start-up Rivian Automotive, told the Wall Street Journal.

Metals rush​

Fear of high prices and fear of missing out completely are driving automakers upstream “all the way back to the mines”.

Tesla is itself something of a trail-blazer, making no secret of its ambitions to manufacture its own batteries with metal sourced directly from miners.

It has future tonnages committed from lithium projects in the United States and Australia and an off-take agreement with Talon Metals Corp’s proposed Tamarack nickel mine in Minnesota.

BMW Group has tied up both cobalt and lithium supplies for its upcoming fifth generation of battery cells and will make “the raw materials available to the two battery cell manufacturers, CATL and Samsung SDI,” the company said.

It’s an example of an automaker taking ownership of battery metals from cradle to grave and quite possibly beyond if commercial recycling of lithium-ion batteries takes off.

Volkswagen has moved beyond simple off-take deals, forming an alliance with China’s Tsingshan Group and Huayou Cobalt to mine and refine enough nickel and cobalt to generate 160 gigawatt hours worth of EV batteries.

The battery metals rush is already on and Musk’s tweet inevitably generated a few ripples across the mining stocks sector.

Or at least it did before he decided to buy Twitter itself before a lithium miner.

However, the market logic of insufficient supply and elevated pricing means it may be only a matter of time before Tesla and other EV makers start getting into the dirty business of mining the stuff themselves.

The biggest headwind to more lithium and nickel supply is capital.

New mines cost a lot of money and come with an extended development time of several years.

Price volatility doesn’t do anything to reassure traditional lenders and the paper market is still too illiquid to hedge the financial risk.

Automakers can deploy a lot of capital.

They have already done so at the battery manufacturing stage of the supply chain. Extending that vertical integration into the mines that produce the enabling metals is now becoming a matter of urgency.

Those who miss out will risk seeing the EV revolution accelerate away from them.

www.mining.com/category/battery-metals/

 

[Freehold]

Is that purely long term investing or trading along the way for beer money as well Freeo

Just wondering

Started off dabbling (beer money yes) but vastly more losers than winners and was lucky to survive frankly. Then went purely to tech trading for several years ... then TA bias with FA... then FA Bias with TA. Trading for pips with little early research (twas stressful and very hard work everyday) early on this naturally gave way to larger conviction trades over the mid term with lots of early research (minimal ongoing work ).

I simply found it incredibly more profitable this way (ie, high convictions like AVZ amongst many others). Still have more losers than winners but generally losers are cut off quick and winners are left to run and run ....and well run. Wish someone had told me early on as I had to learn the hard way by being continually beaten up/lashed/whipped by the market. But over time the harder the flogging I received the more etched the mistake was and determination to not make that same mistake again.

Anyway enough about me... Looks like AVZ bounced late in the day close at 99.5.

 

[Hemicuda]

Just in from.... The ML is on her desk waiting to be signed off on . They were expecting this to have been done on Mon/Tues this week.

Also an extension is now needed with CATH.

?

 

[Sammy_da_Smile]

Just in from.... The ML is on her desk waiting to be signed off on . They were expecting this to have been done on Mon/Tues this week.

Also an extension is now needed with CATH.

So waiting for ML then? Or something else??

 

[Hemicuda]

So waiting for ML then? Or something else??

 

[Sammy_da_Smile]

Well they waived it, so who knows?

 

[Hemicuda]

Well they waived it, so who knows?

and post now deleted?