LITHIUM ION BATTERY PIPELINE BREAKS THE 6 TWH CAPACITY BARRIER
22nd April 2022
Batteries
Global lithium ion production capacity could reach over 6,000GWh (6TWh) by the end of the decade, based on current plans, as companies accelerate gigafactory construction in Europe and the US.
Total lithium ion capacity existing or being built has doubled since the beginning of 2021 following announcements of new plants by Chinese and South Korean battery producers, according to Benchmark’s Gigafactory Assessment.
The numbers highlight the increasingly global spread of battery gigafactories, as automakers look to secure local supply chains to lower costs and reduce the risk of trade disruption. While China still dominates global battery production, announcements for
North American and
European battery cell plants are accelerating.
LG Energy Solutions said it would invest KRW 1.7tn ($1.4bn) to build a 11 GWh cell plant in Arizona while Mercedes-Benz announced a battery partnership project with Envision AESC, with plans for a 30 GWh plant to be located in Kentucky, US.
In March China’s EVE Energy announced plans to set up its first European battery plant with an estimated capacity of 30 GWh in Debrecen, Hungary.
North America’s share of the global battery capacity is set to grow to 10% by 2026 from 6% currently, according to Benchmark, while Europe’s is set to grow to 12% from 7%.
BATTERY ACCELERATION
Overall, planned gigafactory capacity rose in April by 73% from a year earlier, according to Benchmark. At the current rate of growth capacity is set to exceed 10 TWh in less than a year.
The numbers include around 1 TWh of existing battery capacity as of the end of 2021.
At 6 TWh of capacity the world could produce around 109 million EVs, although this is based on all the plants coming into production and operating at full capacity.
In reality it’s likely that around 70% of the gigafactories in pipeline will come into production with an average global capacity utilisation of 70%, according to Simon Moores, chief executive of Benchmark.
Tesla’s chief executive Elon Musk said this week that a total of 300 TWh is needed to transition the world to sustainable energy via batteries for heating and transport.
NOT ALL BATTERIES ARE EQUAL
Not all battery capacity equals reliable, quality battery supply needed for world class EVs, however, according to Moores.
Of the 6 TWh of planned and existing battery capacity, around 26% is from Tier 1 battery producers, according to Benchmark. Tier 1 is
defined as a battery manufacturer that is qualified to supply more than one multinational automaker outside of China.
It includes China’s CATL, Panasonic, BYD, Envision AESC,
LG Energy Solution, SK Innovation, and Samsung SDI.
LEADING THE PACK
The Tier 1 producers led the majority of announcements of new cell capacity in March and April, according to Benchmark.
LG’s latest announcement, along with previously released plans, will make LGES a key supplier in North America with 201 GWh in American pipeline capacity by 2031, according to the Benchmark Gigafactory Assessment.
In China, electric vehicle maker BYD confirmed two new cell production bases in Taizhou, Zhejiang province, and Nanning, Guangxi province with combined capacity of 67 GWh.
RAW MATERIALS LAG
Battery capacity is currently growing at twice the speed of lithium raw material supply, however.
A total of 6 TWh of annual battery production would require around 5 million tonnes of lithium, according to Benchmark. Production of lithium last year was around 480,000 tonnes of LCE.
Meeting the 2030 growth targets for electric vehicles will require the lithium industry to step up production, Tesla’s senior vice president for Powertrain and Energy Engineering, Drew Baglino, said this week.
“We need everybody to do more in the lithium space than they currently are,” he said.