‘Mr. Lithium’ warns there’s not enough battery metal to go around
Batteries, and more precisely battery metals, are poised to replace chips as the new bottleneck for the auto industry.
While there’s been a lot of
attention on nickel, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, another key metal — lithium — is a source of concern for manufacturers dealing with all manner of supply chain challenges.
The cost of the metal — mainly used to produce lithium-ion batteries, but also for pharmaceuticals and industrial lubricants has been
soaring.
An index of key prices more than doubled in the first quarter, after surging 280% last year, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
That jump is worrying government officials in China, my colleague Annie Lee wrote earlier this month. Elon Musk, largely seen as ahead of the pack on scaling electric vehicle production,
flagged the lithium shortage several times during Tesla’s earnings call this week.
“I’d certainly encourage entrepreneurs out there who are looking for opportunities to get into the lithium business,” Musk said Wednesday.
“We think we’re going to need to help the industry on this front.”
One person who’s been warning of a lithium shortage for a while is Joe Lowry, a somewhat cantankerous expert who regularly draws mining bigwigs and analysts to
his podcast.
Known in mining circles as “Mr. Lithium,” the North Carolina resident has been in the business for decades.
Since striking out on his own in 2012, Lowry has been a consultant to mining companies and an investor. He owns shares of companies including Tesla and Lithium Americas.
I’ve been talking with Lowry to wrap my head around the EV battery supply chain and have summarized our conversation in Q&A form.
Here’s an excerpt, edited for length and clarity.
You wrote a paper at the end of 2019 saying demand for lithium would outstrip supply. It looks like lithium prices have started to reflect that. What do you see?
In the next two years, even though there will be significant growth in supply, it will be less than demand, so the gap will just continue to grow.
It’s simple math. It’s like, the bus in front of me is going 50 miles per hour, I’m going 45 mph, but I’m saying I’m gonna catch it in 2025.
I believe there will be a day in the future when lithium is in oversupply, but it won’t be in this decade.
Why will it take so long?
You can build a battery factory in two years, but it takes up to a decade to bring on a lithium project.
It’s not a commodity; it’s a specialty chemical. Lithium is often compared with iron ore or other major commodities, and it behaves nothing like that.
The auto industry is just finally figuring that out. Lithium qualification for an auto company can take over a year.
Why?
It has to go through cycle testing. If you’re going to put something into a car that could ignite if the chemistry is wrong, you kind of want to know.
Is the auto industry prepared for that long lead time?
I take everybody’s gigawatt-hour projections and take them back to the lithium required to do it, and most of them are so far over what the lithium industry can supply. I don’t believe demand is going to be destroyed. Ultimately, I believe it’s just deferred.
The additional production this year will be less than 150,000 tons. So then, it’s who gets the material? Whose EV models don’t get made?
In a 2050 scenario, there’s time for everything to happen that needs to happen.
But in 2030, it just isn’t going to happen. Just look at the mess we’re in from a lithium supply standpoint with less than 10% EV penetration.
Lowry’s predictions chime with others assessments. BloombergNEF
forecasts prices of lithium carbonate and hydroxide — the main lithium chemicals used in battery production — will be higher still by 2030 as a result of projected supply deficits.
www.mining.com/category/battery-metals/
Musk’s tweets fuel mining industry’s hopes of a buyout by Tesla
Elon Musk’s recent musings that
high lithium prices may force Tesla to make its own supply of the electric vehicle battery metal have fueled hopes by some that the billionaire entrepreneur will instead opt for a buyout of an established mining company.
The auto giant already has supply contracts for nickel, lithium and a range of other EV metals from suppliers across the globe.
But it needs more, and industry analysts say Tesla may soon realize that building a mine or processing facility from scratch is not as easy as it sounds and the automaker should instead consider a buyout.
“Price of lithium has gone to insane levels! Tesla might actually have to get into the mining & refining directly at scale unless costs improve,” the Tesla CEO tweeted earlier this month.
Lithium prices are up more than 80% this year and nickel prices have gyrated heavily amid trading turmoil in London.
The billionaire entrepreneur had already complained about “significant” jumps in raw materials costs for Tesla, which has raised prices of its vehicles twice this year.
“Should management be serious about entering the lithium space, we think the most likely route would be an acquisition of an existing lithium company,” said Morningstar lithium analyst Seth Goldstein.
Shares of junior miner Lithium Corp.
jumped more than 30% on April 13 after unsubstantiated reports that it and its Nevada brine deposits had been sold to Tesla, a rumor the company denied. Shares of larger lithium producers, such as Albemarle, reacted little to Musk’s tweets.
“Elon, if you want to talk to us, come and say hello,” said Tom Lewis, Lithium’s CEO, who said the buyout rumors likely were an “orchestrated plan to pump (our shares) up a bit.”
Amid the minerals talk, Musk last week made a $43-billion cash offer to buy social networking platform Twitter.
“If you’re going to spend $43-billion and you run Tesla and you understand better than anyone Tesla’s future lithium needs, you might want to spend a lot less and buy a lithium company or two,” said lithium industry consultant Joe Lowry.
‘A huge disconnect’
Tesla has never operated a mine, but it is building a lithium processing plant in Texas and may need to build a nickel refinery.
“There’s a huge disconnect in this country about metals refining,” said Corby Anderson, who teaches metallurgy at the Colorado School of Mines.
“And yet the public expects the materials to be available to do the things they want.”
US President Joe Biden said this month he would use a Cold War-era piece of legislation to boost government funding for metals processing, though not for new mines.
In January, Tesla said it will buy 75,000 tonnes of nickel concentrate from Talon Metals Corp’s proposed Tamarack mine project in Minnesota, starting in 2026.
Musk asked the mining industry in 2020 to produce more nickel “in an environmentally sensitive way,” and Talon has said it has plans to honor that request.
But it is not clear what Tesla will do with that nickel concentrate, which needs to be smelted into a product known as matte and further refined before it can be used to build battery parts.
The United States does not have any facilities to do that processing, with the exception of a small salt byproduct facility.
Canada has a handful of nickel smelters and refineries, though it mines more than those facilities can handle and relies on refineries in Norway and the United Kingdom.
That means Tesla would either have to build its own facilities to process nickel, or rely on overseas companies, thus boosting the nickel’s carbon footprint.
Musk has hinted the company may have a new method to turn nickel into the material needed for battery cathodes, but has not provided details. Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.
The automaker also recently struck a deal with Brazilian mining company Vale to supply nickel, according to media reports.
Lithium
For lithium, Tesla is building a plant in Texas that will convert spodumene concentrate – processed rock containing the metal – into lithium hydroxide, a key building block for EV batteries.
The automaker applied for Texas permits for its facility last year, according to state records, though it is unclear when that facility will open.
A lithium supply deal with Piedmont Lithium was put on hold last year. Tesla also has lithium supply deals with Liontown Resources, Ganfeng Lithium and Core Lithium.
Musk’s tweets, analysts said, are likely born from a desire to push down spot lithium prices. Most lithium producers, though, prefer to sell the metal on long-term contracts with fixed prices that help them plan for future demand.
Livent and Albemarle, which are also Tesla suppliers, have said they will not build more processing plants if automakers fail to sign long-term deals.
www.mining.com/category/battery-metals/
Musk wants more lithium for EVs but very few places have it
Elon Musk wants more lithium, but only a handful of countries can supply the material key to the electrification of transportation, at least for now.
Food for thought
Frank