AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Frank
Top 20
To add, I see where,
Another battery metals bull run sends lithium superpowers to record highs
Lithium companies, battered and bruised after Goldman Sachs sent investors running for the hills in May with a bearish prediction of a price crash, are back on top of their games.Pilbara Minerals has risen an astonishing 47.52% over the past month to a new all time high today of $4.78.
That gives the miner a market cap of over $14 billion, outpacing every gold miner on the ASX barring Newcrest.
PLS wasn’t the only lithium miner picking up tailwinds today.
Allkem rose almost 3% to $15.99, another record taking its MC beyond the $10 billion mark.
MinRes also crossed the $14 billion MC milestone, with its shares up 1.77% to $74.38, while $11 billion IGO was up 2.39%.
A host of mid-tier battery metals stocks also reported big gains.
News of MinRes’ proposed spinoff of its lithium assets into a separate New York listed company has sent brokers rushing to update their price decks for lithium.
Investment bankers Barrenjoey upgraded their lithium price predictions by between 36 and 86% for 2023 and 2024, upgrading their price targets on IGO and MinRes from $13.50 to $15.50 and $67 to $77, respectively.
Fastmarkets’ assessed lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate prices continue to edge higher, assessed at US$77/kg and US$73.5/kg respectively overnight, up from around US$40,000/t at the end of 2021.
We need ‘+330 mines in 12 years’ to feed battery demand.
We need over 300 new mines to feed a 500% increase in battery demand by 2035, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence predicts.At least 384 new graphite, lithium, nickel, and cobalt mines are needed in the next 12 years, which drops to an almost-as-unwieldy 336 if recycling of raw materials is factored in.
A very tough ask, for several reasons.
One – the chance of finding an economic mineral deposit in the first place is frightfully small.
There are many thousands of listed and unlisted exploration companies globally, and yet probably only 25 bona fide discoveries are made per year, famous resources sector investor Rick Rule says.
“Only one in 3000 mineralised anomalies becomes a mine,” he says.
Two – it takes a long time to build a mine from scratch.
Minrex Consulting managing director Richard Schodde estimated an average delay between discovery and development of 12.4 years, based on data for 4676 significant non-bulk mineral discoveries made in the world since 1950.
That lead time is getting worse, he says.
“Depending on the commodity, only 50-70% (by number) and 60-80% (by contained metal) of discoveries turn into mines, and the average delay period has blown out to ~20 years,” Schodde said in 2017.
“In other words, it is getting progressively harder and slower to turn a discovery into a mine.
“This has profound implications on the industry’s long-term ability to supply new metal to customers.”
Companies like Sandfire , which went from discovery hole to first copper production in just over three years at DeGrussa, are exceptions to the rule. Another would be Sirius, which took just 5five years to get the Nova nickel discovery into production.
There are many more reasons why that ‘+300-mines in 12 years’ target looks unlikely – like NIMBYism and jurisdictional risk — which puts those juniors with established resources and a clear plan to enter production in the next eight years in a very strong position.
“The data highlights the height of the raw material challenge facing global automakers as they look to scale up production of electric vehicles this decade,” Benchmark says.
Demand for lithium-ion batteries is set to grow six-fold by 2032.
Yet supplies of lithium, graphite, nickel, and cobalt will need to keep pace with demand, especially post 2030.
“While recycling of raw materials will have the most impact on future cobalt supply, it’s not yet set to have much impact on materials such as graphite.”
Today we look at a bunch of advanced ASX graphite, lithium, cobalt, and nickel project developers — plus a couple of recycling projects — which are first in line to feed Benchmark’s predicted shortfall.
Don’t be mad if your favourite stock is missing, just let us know. Nicely.
LITHIUM
To meet the world’s lithium requirements would require 74 new lithium mines with an average size of 45,000 tonnes by 2035, according to Benchmark.Effective recycling could pare that back to 59 mines at 45,000t LCE (lithium carbonate eq).
That is still a lot of LCE, especially considering many of the next crop of producers are starting small (~10,000t to 20,000t) and working their way up to half-century run rate after a few years on the tools.
We cover the next class of potential lithium producers a lot.
They include stocks like Core, Vulcan, Liontown, Sayona, Leo Lithium, Lake Resources and Piedmont, give or take a few.
But what happens beyond the next couple of years?
Yep, same
antimatter
Regular
I hope it's the tingle from imminent AVZ news and not the tingle down there from snorting some white powder on strippers titts.
D
Deleted member 1612
Guest
I got tingles reading that you have tingles because I trust your tingles are onto something…
oxxa23
Regular
That's just selfish...
I hope the tingles are the new ich from the kdr days as the ich back them was almost visionary.
Cheers and best of luck everyone.
Mr Inappropriate
Regular
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LzrTr8dr
Regular
I’m just incredibly disappointed that an Australian journalist could essentially denounce a company of his own nationality based on unsubstantiated fluff (Boatman). It really took a formal ASX announcement to combat an article which had no substance from the beginning. Well done Tom, don’t show your face in public. I don’t comment often, but a few wines bring out my disappointment.
Mickyb64
Regular
Is Geelong close enough? Happy to get on the gas when this baby launches.Who here is in Melbourne?
I don't meant to be crass, and lame, but I'm going to be crass, and lame right now...
When (holy shit God, fucking please Mary John Fucking Joseph(and please just ignore I'm a fucking athiest for the moment)) we come through with the goods, I legitamately would like to be snorting coke off of the supple tits of a young stripper or three, alone side my fellow, long LONG suffering AVZ longies.
It doesn't have to be that debaucherous (how good is that word?!!), but it sure can be too
All you rich ass Boat owning MoFo's can just sail your asses around and down the coast to Australias classiest City too!
Torquay for me but happy to travel for that sort of night..
Mickyb64
Regular
Looks like we're putting together a good Geelong crew.
Ive already tee'd up the Mrs that she won't see me for three days if all goes well with AVZ
Azzler
Top 20
I'm thinking of something truly epic..
something decedant as all fuck..
celebratory... triumphant... noble... but then suddenly.... DEBAUCHERY CITY!!!
[Let's take this to an off topic thread if we want to continue a melbourne gathering and celebration... but hey , lets wait until we cross that finish line]
something decedant as all fuck..
celebratory... triumphant... noble... but then suddenly.... DEBAUCHERY CITY!!!
[Let's take this to an off topic thread if we want to continue a melbourne gathering and celebration... but hey , lets wait until we cross that finish line]
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