Stickshift was correct on the other channel ; the asx 200 rebalance list is actually on the 2nd I.e first Friday on the month ; I had it down as the 1st , so we really would have needed to be by (before ) that date ; so yes the 1st ; which is obviously before the 2nd; is the cut .
This CAT date which was oddly 30 sept whilst our date was 1st…. Looking at that 4 week period and how this court case has seemed to just come out of nowhere ; but in reality it hasn’t as these things take time to arrange … I reckon that 4 weeks was dropped in there to allow for possibly renegotiation should Dathomir come away with something pre ROFR percentages.
There always seemed to be gossip / those in the know about cominiere ; but no one could seem to shed light onto dathomir situation ; so much so, that it was just disregarded .At this stage it would appear that the ML could be announced irrgardless of the outcome here , as even a Dathmoir 15% wouldn’t take AVZ down to sub 50%….in the case of a dathomir win, A 15% win is highly unlikely , as it was broken into an earlier 5% and followed later on by the 10%; that 10% if they were to be successful would likely be the figure ….. of course then that 4 week period would likely become a time for reneg with CAT ; but what are the cards being dealt then ? ….. ( without ROFR % in play ) CAT would be down to 14% for AVZ to retain 51%….. then we have higher spod pricing and ML in hand …. AVZ would be needing to pull some percentage from the ROFR I reckon to get CAT back to into the 20s ; I’m not sure they’d be happy with 14% and paying higher $$ for it.
Anyway they couldn’t get this case switched to Kinshasa ; we were stuck with Lubumbashi which isn’t the preferred spot to have a judge ( even this new one ) hanging around waiting to make a decision imo ; hopefully he can resist the brown bags bouncing off his bedroom window in the dead of the night or coffee time phone calls .
At this stage, with this court case going on , I reckon best thing is to do even if ML was in Nigel’s pocket right now , would be to delay any announcement until the 1st ; cutting it very fine now ; but this thing hanging in the wind , (whether many seem to know about it or not as it certainly hasn’t been broadcasted in market channels ) would likely cause some headwinds or if we announced ML say today or tomowow and then a negative ann came out after the case , then we have just pissed in the wind .
Waiting to see what the judge comes out with and holding any Ann’s off until Thursday is the best in any case ; positive news and we are go ; negative dathmoir news and they massage it with good ML and Zijin Gonski news .
Having Simon Cong / Dathomir back on board …. Now that would be ironic for sure ; …. Imagine he then sold his percentage to Zijin …. Have a wrecked anyones head yet


. AVZ then pays out top offer for Cominieres 15% gives Cat 10 and we end up with AVZ 56% , Zijin 10% , CAT 24% , DRC 10% … enjoy your coffee and morning thoughts