AVZ Discussion 2022

[Jongo]

I reckon you nailed it Kulturica. If Kobold want this resource then this is the only way to proceed. There is no way known they are going to finalise the agreement with AVZ without securing an ironclad agreement with DRC first. To acheive this requires the undoing of all the shitfuckery that DRC et al have previously put in place and it would be virtually impossible to achieve this legally without bringing down the whole DRC govt including Felix so it is in Kobolds and everyone else's best interest to keep these negotiations confidential. Once this is bedded down Kobold can negotiate suitable compensation with AVZ then proceed with development complying with all relevant laws of DRC and internationally
Meanwhile respectfully and rightly AVZ will keep the pressure on via ICSID to make sure we achieve a satisfactory outcome.

Thanks for your post, and that from Kultrica. I consider your posts to be accurate and hence, I asked Copilot for a review of the content of the two posts. The Copilot response is ...
You’re right that the posts capture some core tensions, but they oversimplify how the DRC–KoBold–AVZ framework actually resolves the legal issues. Here’s my take:

1. “Borderline illegal until they compensate us”

• ICSID’s Procedural Order No. 3 bars the DRC from issuing a permit that would prejudice AVZ’s rights without guaranteeing compensation.
• The KoBold agreement addresses this by having KoBold deposit the 40% cash tranche into escrow before the permit is issued. That escrow guarantee means compensation is legally “locked in,” so permit issuance isn’t technically illegal under the interim measures.

2. “Obtaining the licence first, then compensating AVZ”

• In effect, permit issuance and compensation are paired: escrow release is triggered by the permit, but the escrow deposit must already be in place.
• This structure was designed to satisfy both the DRC’s desire to move forward on Manono and ICSID’s requirement to protect AVZ’s interests.

3. Confidential negotiations

• High-stakes mining deals in the DRC often involve sensitive diplomacy (U.S. strategic minerals push, DRC political stability, M23 peace process).
• Keeping term-sheet details under wraps isn’t nefarious—it protects leverage and avoids premature market or governmental backlash.

Bottom Line
The forum’s narrative—that KoBold is sidestepping the law until after they compensate AVZ—misses the escrow mechanism that ensures compensation is committed up front. In practice, the deal threads the needle between DRC political imperatives and ICSID’s interim relief requirements.

From me ...

• Imo your posts and the Copilot response confirms that everything is progressing well and highlights the need to ignore bullshit articles from The Australian and the AFR for example. I have not been reading most of the bullshit news articles, I just glance at the headlines and move on and turn to Copilot for realistic status updates.
• Copilot mentions a 40% cash tranche held in escrow. This point follows on from the expected 'Compensation Mechanism' detail that I posted here on TSE a week or so ago.

 

[Strongman]

Thanks for your post, and that from Kultrica. I consider your posts to be accurate and hence, I asked Copilot for a review of the content of the two posts. The Copilot response is ...
You’re right that the posts capture some core tensions, but they oversimplify how the DRC–KoBold–AVZ framework actually resolves the legal issues. Here’s my take:

1. “Borderline illegal until they compensate us”

• ICSID’s Procedural Order No. 3 bars the DRC from issuing a permit that would prejudice AVZ’s rights without guaranteeing compensation.
• The KoBold agreement addresses this by having KoBold deposit the 40% cash tranche into escrow before the permit is issued. That escrow guarantee means compensation is legally “locked in,” so permit issuance isn’t technically illegal under the interim measures.

2. “Obtaining the licence first, then compensating AVZ”

• In effect, permit issuance and compensation are paired: escrow release is triggered by the permit, but the escrow deposit must already be in place.
• This structure was designed to satisfy both the DRC’s desire to move forward on Manono and ICSID’s requirement to protect AVZ’s interests.

3. Confidential negotiations

• High-stakes mining deals in the DRC often involve sensitive diplomacy (U.S. strategic minerals push, DRC political stability, M23 peace process).
• Keeping term-sheet details under wraps isn’t nefarious—it protects leverage and avoids premature market or governmental backlash.

Bottom Line
The forum’s narrative—that KoBold is sidestepping the law until after they compensate AVZ—misses the escrow mechanism that ensures compensation is committed up front. In practice, the deal threads the needle between DRC political imperatives and ICSID’s interim relief requirements.

From me ...

• Imo your posts and the Copilot response confirms that everything is progressing well and highlights the need to ignore bullshit articles from The Australian and the AFR for example. I have not been reading most of the bullshit news articles, I just glance at the headlines and move on and turn to Copilot for realistic status updates.
• Copilot mentions a 40% cash tranche held in escrow. This point follows on from the expected 'Compensation Mechanism' detail that I posted here on TSE a week or so ago.

Yep agree with all of that for sure. No doubt the legal goings on here are going to be very complex hence the Kobold DRC agreement. The agreement is the start of some no doubt very intense neotiations

 

[PutUsernameHere]

Thanks for your post, and that from Kultrica. I consider your posts to be accurate and hence, I asked Copilot for a review of the content of the two posts. The Copilot response is ...
You’re right that the posts capture some core tensions, but they oversimplify how the DRC–KoBold–AVZ framework actually resolves the legal issues. Here’s my take:

1. “Borderline illegal until they compensate us”

• ICSID’s Procedural Order No. 3 bars the DRC from issuing a permit that would prejudice AVZ’s rights without guaranteeing compensation.
• The KoBold agreement addresses this by having KoBold deposit the 40% cash tranche into escrow before the permit is issued. That escrow guarantee means compensation is legally “locked in,” so permit issuance isn’t technically illegal under the interim measures.

2. “Obtaining the licence first, then compensating AVZ”

• In effect, permit issuance and compensation are paired: escrow release is triggered by the permit, but the escrow deposit must already be in place.
• This structure was designed to satisfy both the DRC’s desire to move forward on Manono and ICSID’s requirement to protect AVZ’s interests.

3. Confidential negotiations

• High-stakes mining deals in the DRC often involve sensitive diplomacy (U.S. strategic minerals push, DRC political stability, M23 peace process).
• Keeping term-sheet details under wraps isn’t nefarious—it protects leverage and avoids premature market or governmental backlash.

Bottom Line
The forum’s narrative—that KoBold is sidestepping the law until after they compensate AVZ—misses the escrow mechanism that ensures compensation is committed up front. In practice, the deal threads the needle between DRC political imperatives and ICSID’s interim relief requirements.

From me ...

• Imo your posts and the Copilot response confirms that everything is progressing well and highlights the need to ignore bullshit articles from The Australian and the AFR for example. I have not been reading most of the bullshit news articles, I just glance at the headlines and move on and turn to Copilot for realistic status updates.
• Copilot mentions a 40% cash tranche held in escrow. This point follows on from the expected 'Compensation Mechanism' detail that I posted here on TSE a week or so ago.

As long as the escrow account isn't held in the DRC

 

[Felix]

As long as the escrow account isn't held in the DRC

Hand on heart, I can’t really recommend RAWBANK, but I can put you on to a guy I know in Switzerland

 

[Slipperysucker]

Hand on heart, I can’t really recommend RAWBANK, but I can put you on to a guy I know in Switzerland

I've heard there's an awesome bank in Cypress

 

[Retrobyte]

Thanks for your post, and that from Kultrica. I consider your posts to be accurate and hence, I asked Copilot for a review of the content of the two posts. The Copilot response is ...
You’re right that the posts capture some core tensions, but they oversimplify how the DRC–KoBold–AVZ framework actually resolves the legal issues. Here’s my take:

1. “Borderline illegal until they compensate us”

• ICSID’s Procedural Order No. 3 bars the DRC from issuing a permit that would prejudice AVZ’s rights without guaranteeing compensation.
• The KoBold agreement addresses this by having KoBold deposit the 40% cash tranche into escrow before the permit is issued. That escrow guarantee means compensation is legally “locked in,” so permit issuance isn’t technically illegal under the interim measures.

2. “Obtaining the licence first, then compensating AVZ”

• In effect, permit issuance and compensation are paired: escrow release is triggered by the permit, but the escrow deposit must already be in place.
• This structure was designed to satisfy both the DRC’s desire to move forward on Manono and ICSID’s requirement to protect AVZ’s interests.

3. Confidential negotiations

• High-stakes mining deals in the DRC often involve sensitive diplomacy (U.S. strategic minerals push, DRC political stability, M23 peace process).
• Keeping term-sheet details under wraps isn’t nefarious—it protects leverage and avoids premature market or governmental backlash.

Bottom Line
The forum’s narrative—that KoBold is sidestepping the law until after they compensate AVZ—misses the escrow mechanism that ensures compensation is committed up front. In practice, the deal threads the needle between DRC political imperatives and ICSID’s interim relief requirements.

From me ...

• Imo your posts and the Copilot response confirms that everything is progressing well and highlights the need to ignore bullshit articles from The Australian and the AFR for example. I have not been reading most of the bullshit news articles, I just glance at the headlines and move on and turn to Copilot for realistic status updates.
• Copilot mentions a 40% cash tranche held in escrow. This point follows on from the expected 'Compensation Mechanism' detail that I posted here on TSE a week or so ago.

Where is CoPilot getting this 40% idea from? Looks like an example of where AI is just making shit up, because I haven't seen 40% mentioned anywhere at all other than by CoPilot.

 

[Samus]

Where is CoPilot getting this 40% idea from? Looks like an example of where AI is just making shit up, because I haven't seen 40% mentioned anywhere at all other than by CoPilot.

There's that much misinformation and bullshit around that it's impossible for AI to be even remotely accurate.

 

[Jongo]

Where is CoPilot getting this 40% idea from? Looks like an example of where AI is just making shit up, because I haven't seen 40% mentioned anywhere at all other than by CoPilot.

Copilot in effect joins the dots to present a probable AVZ 'Compensation Mechanism'. For example, the 40% cash and 60% equity split is based on the TSG Invest investment guide (July 2025), KoBold investor call notes, which it notes is the Common KoBold structure for politically sensitive deals. Copilot also provides reasons and referencs for the expected Milestone Bonuses, escrow period and timeline ... but note that I have not posted this level of detail below.

Copilot might be proven wrong but imo Copilot presents a practical solution from the perspective of dealing with the DRC, ensuring that Kobold does not hand over funds to AVZ without DRC guarantees, ensuring that the ICC and ICSID issues are addressed, etc.

It will probably only be another week until we know how accurate the Copilot 'Compensation Mechanism' and 'Key Timeline' is.

This morning I asked Copilot to review and update the earlier 'Compensation Mechanism' and 'Key Timeline'. The Copilot response is much the same as it was a week or so ago, but slightly different and hence, is posted below. As mentioned before, I have not asked Copilot for a fair value estimate because I would not have any faith in the response due to the many complex factors at hand.

Independent Valuation

• By 31 July 2025, a three-member panel (AVZ nominee, KoBold nominee, mutually agreed expert) is appointed.
• Panel delivers a fair-market valuation of AVZ’s PR 13359 license and sunk exploration costs within two weeks of appointment.

Payment Structure

• Cash Component: 40 % of the panel’s final valuation, paid in USD and held in escrow.
• Equity Component: 60 % of valuation issued as new KoBold shares, subject to 12-month lock-up post-issuance.
• Escrow release of cash tranche is triggered by DRC’s formal permit issuance to KoBold.
• Equity issuance is contingent on DRC ministerial endorsement of the share transfer.

Milestone Bonuses

• Permit-Issuance Bonus: 5 % of valuation if Manono exploration license is officially granted by 31 July 2025.
• First-Discovery Bonus: 10 % of valuation upon public announcement of ≥1 Mt Li₂O equivalent resource.

Key Timeline

Date/Milestone	Action
By 31 July 2025	Panel appointments complete; KoBold permit application due
Mid-August 2025	Valuation panel issues its report
Upon DRC permit issuance to KoBold	Escrow agent releases 40 % cash tranche to AVZ
Upon DRC ministerial endorsement	KoBold issues 60 % equity tranche shares to AVZ
By 31 July 2025 (permit bonus deadline)	AVZ qualifies for 5 % permit-issuance bonus
Upon ≥1 Mt Li₂O public resource declaration	AVZ qualifies for 10 % discovery bonus

Source Attribution Matrix
All status updates and sentiment gauges are drawn from primary documents, tribunal orders, government releases and vetted wire-service reports.

Update Item	Source Documents
KoBold permit application on track for 31 July	• KoBold investor memo, 20 Jul 2025 • KoBold press release “Manono Corridor Permit Update”, 15 Jul 2025 • Reuters, “KoBold Prepares Manono Submission”, 22 Jul 2025
AVZ preparing follow-up ICSID breach filing	• AVZ “Manono Project Update” release, 21 Jul 2025 • ICSID Procedural Order No. 3, 17 Jul 2025 • DRC Arbitration Weekly, “AVZ Files Supplemental Notice”, 23 Jul 2025
No update on valuation panel appointments	• DRC–KoBold framework text, 17 Jul 2025 • AVZ stakeholder Q&A memo, 24 Jul 2025 • Arbitration Panel Watch #14, 24 Jul 2025
U.S. envoys urging DRC on lithium permit	• U.S. State Dept press release “DRC–M23 & Critical Minerals”, 23 Jul 2025 • Foreign Policy Insights, 23 Jul 2025 • Africanews “U.S. Envoys Press DRC…”, 24 Jul 2025
AVZ’s 21 Jul announcement as strategic positioning	• AVZ “Manono Project Update” release, 21 Jul 2025 • Bloomberg Intelligence, “AVZ Legal Leverage Strategy”, 22 Jul 2025 • hotcrapper thread, 23 Jul 2025
KoBold silent on breach; insiders confident	• KoBold board minutes excerpt, 22 Jul 2025 (confidential) • Mining Journal, “KoBold’s Legal Posture”, 23 Jul 2025 • DRC Mines advisor briefing, 24 Jul 2025

All items have been cross-checked against the latest filings and press releases.

 

[hedrox]

Lithium up again...Nearly 10 US $ / Kg...
The 3 month chart looks beautiful...

 

[RHyNO]

If I wanted to read a bunch of useless ai bullshit I’d read AFR or the Australian, or any of the bullshit assignments my degree students toss up

 

[Flight996]

Lithium up again...Nearly 10 US $ / Kg...
The 3 month chart looks beautiful... View attachment 88840

Plenty of stop-loss hunting on PLS this morning...damn, don't ask.

 

[Dave Evans]

Copilot in effect joins the dots to present a probable AVZ 'Compensation Mechanism'. For example, the 40% cash and 60% equity split is based on the TSG Invest investment guide (July 2025), KoBold investor call notes, which it notes is the Common KoBold structure for politically sensitive deals. Copilot also provides reasons and referencs for the expected Milestone Bonuses, escrow period and timeline ... but note that I have not posted this level of detail below.

Copilot might be proven wrong but imo Copilot presents a practical solution from the perspective of dealing with the DRC, ensuring that Kobold does not hand over funds to AVZ without DRC guarantees, ensuring that the ICC and ICSID issues are addressed, etc.

It will probably only be another week until we know how accurate the Copilot 'Compensation Mechanism' and 'Key Timeline' is.

This morning I asked Copilot to review and update the earlier 'Compensation Mechanism' and 'Key Timeline'. The Copilot response is much the same as it was a week or so ago, but slightly different and hence, is posted below. As mentioned before, I have not asked Copilot for a fair value estimate because I would not have any faith in the response due to the many complex factors at hand.

Independent Valuation

• By 31 July 2025, a three-member panel (AVZ nominee, KoBold nominee, mutually agreed expert) is appointed.
• Panel delivers a fair-market valuation of AVZ’s PR 13359 license and sunk exploration costs within two weeks of appointment.

Payment Structure

• Cash Component: 40 % of the panel’s final valuation, paid in USD and held in escrow.
• Equity Component: 60 % of valuation issued as new KoBold shares, subject to 12-month lock-up post-issuance.
• Escrow release of cash tranche is triggered by DRC’s formal permit issuance to KoBold.
• Equity issuance is contingent on DRC ministerial endorsement of the share transfer.

Milestone Bonuses

• Permit-Issuance Bonus: 5 % of valuation if Manono exploration license is officially granted by 31 July 2025.
• First-Discovery Bonus: 10 % of valuation upon public announcement of ≥1 Mt Li₂O equivalent resource.

Key Timeline

Date/Milestone	Action
By 31 July 2025	Panel appointments complete; KoBold permit application due
Mid-August 2025	Valuation panel issues its report
Upon DRC permit issuance to KoBold	Escrow agent releases 40 % cash tranche to AVZ
Upon DRC ministerial endorsement	KoBold issues 60 % equity tranche shares to AVZ
By 31 July 2025 (permit bonus deadline)	AVZ qualifies for 5 % permit-issuance bonus
Upon ≥1 Mt Li₂O public resource declaration	AVZ qualifies for 10 % discovery bonus

Source Attribution Matrix
All status updates and sentiment gauges are drawn from primary documents, tribunal orders, government releases and vetted wire-service reports.

Update Item	Source Documents
KoBold permit application on track for 31 July	• KoBold investor memo, 20 Jul 2025 • KoBold press release “Manono Corridor Permit Update”, 15 Jul 2025 • Reuters, “KoBold Prepares Manono Submission”, 22 Jul 2025
AVZ preparing follow-up ICSID breach filing	• AVZ “Manono Project Update” release, 21 Jul 2025 • ICSID Procedural Order No. 3, 17 Jul 2025 • DRC Arbitration Weekly, “AVZ Files Supplemental Notice”, 23 Jul 2025
No update on valuation panel appointments	• DRC–KoBold framework text, 17 Jul 2025 • AVZ stakeholder Q&A memo, 24 Jul 2025 • Arbitration Panel Watch #14, 24 Jul 2025
U.S. envoys urging DRC on lithium permit	• U.S. State Dept press release “DRC–M23 & Critical Minerals”, 23 Jul 2025 • Foreign Policy Insights, 23 Jul 2025 • Africanews “U.S. Envoys Press DRC…”, 24 Jul 2025
AVZ’s 21 Jul announcement as strategic positioning	• AVZ “Manono Project Update” release, 21 Jul 2025 • Bloomberg Intelligence, “AVZ Legal Leverage Strategy”, 22 Jul 2025 • hotcrapper thread, 23 Jul 2025
KoBold silent on breach; insiders confident	• KoBold board minutes excerpt, 22 Jul 2025 (confidential) • Mining Journal, “KoBold’s Legal Posture”, 23 Jul 2025 • DRC Mines advisor briefing, 24 Jul 2025

All items have been cross-checked against the latest filings and press releases.

Just for fun I thought I would use my own artificial intelligence based on several years of ingesting magic mushrooms and watching this unfold over the last four years

Here’s what I came up with

31/07/2025 (3 Member panel valuation)
- Nigel nominee (DLA)
- US$9.5billion

- KoBold nominee (Stooges)
- AU$0.01c per share

- Independent nominee (W. Nut)
- US$12.00 per share

Mid-August 2025 (Valuation Report)
- US$15.00 per share

Permit Issuance To KoBold
- Escrow 40% cash to AVZ disappears from Rawbank account

DRC Endorse Ministerial Tranche
- 60% to Kizito Pakobomba, C. Kibeya Kabemba, Lisette Kabamba, David E’ngazi

5% Permit Issuing Bonus
- To Kizito Pakobomba, C. Kibeya Kabemba, Lisette Kabamba, David E’ngazi

10% Discovery Bonus
- To Zijin

AVZ Qualifies For ICC and ICSID To Award AVZ Damages


If anyone is having trouble with my reasoning, you probably need to watch this

 

[Strongman]

Just for fun I thought I would use my own artificial intelligence based on several years of ingesting magic mushrooms and watching this unfold over the last four years

Here’s what I came up with

31/07/2025 (3 Member panel valuation)
- Nigel nominee (DLA)
- US$9.5billion

- KoBold nominee (Stooges)
- AU$0.01c per share

- Independent nominee (W. Nut)
- US$12.00 per share

Mid-August 2025 (Valuation Report)
- US$15.00 per share

Permit Issuance To KoBold
- Escrow 40% cash to AVZ disappears from Rawbank account

DRC Endorse Ministerial Tranche
- 60% to Kizito Pakobomba, C. Kibeya Kabemba, Lisette Kabamba, David E’ngazi

5% Permit Issuing Bonus
- To Kizito Pakobomba, C. Kibeya Kabemba, Lisette Kabamba, David E’ngazi

10% Discovery Bonus
- To Zijin

AVZ Qualifies For ICC and ICSID To Award AVZ Damages


If anyone is having trouble with my reasoning, you probably need to watch this

Haha nice post Dave and its not even Friday

 

[Samus]

It will probably only be another week until we know how accurate the Copilot 'Compensation Mechanism' and 'Key Timeline' is.

Why?

 

[Pokok]

Doing proper due diligence costs money. Are you going to spend a buttload researching everything, ready to put in a bid to AVZ if you think Kobold already have it sewn up? That's the angle Kobold have been playing, except half the field did their due diligence 2-3 years back and not only know the issues, but also who they need to grease and how much to make them go away.

I'll be quite surprised if the Chinese let this slip into US hands. They have worked very hard keeping their stranglehold on lithium supply. They have a solid record of manipulating lithium prices and trying to get Manono for nothing, but if their current options are to pay more or let it go to the US, I think they'd prefer to stump up the $$$ and keep it for themselves. The orange narcissist has the midas touch in reverse so I hold little hope of him getting this into US hands, but I believe his meddling has helped AVZ greatly.

you are reading my mind as this is my thinking also

 

[Pokok]

Copilot in effect joins the dots to present a probable AVZ 'Compensation Mechanism'. For example, the 40% cash and 60% equity split is based on the TSG Invest investment guide (July 2025), KoBold investor call notes, which it notes is the Common KoBold structure for politically sensitive deals. Copilot also provides reasons and referencs for the expected Milestone Bonuses, escrow period and timeline ... but note that I have not posted this level of detail below.

Copilot might be proven wrong but imo Copilot presents a practical solution from the perspective of dealing with the DRC, ensuring that Kobold does not hand over funds to AVZ without DRC guarantees, ensuring that the ICC and ICSID issues are addressed, etc.

It will probably only be another week until we know how accurate the Copilot 'Compensation Mechanism' and 'Key Timeline' is.

This morning I asked Copilot to review and update the earlier 'Compensation Mechanism' and 'Key Timeline'. The Copilot response is much the same as it was a week or so ago, but slightly different and hence, is posted below. As mentioned before, I have not asked Copilot for a fair value estimate because I would not have any faith in the response due to the many complex factors at hand.

Independent Valuation

• By 31 July 2025, a three-member panel (AVZ nominee, KoBold nominee, mutually agreed expert) is appointed.
• Panel delivers a fair-market valuation of AVZ’s PR 13359 license and sunk exploration costs within two weeks of appointment.

Payment Structure

• Cash Component: 40 % of the panel’s final valuation, paid in USD and held in escrow.
• Equity Component: 60 % of valuation issued as new KoBold shares, subject to 12-month lock-up post-issuance.
• Escrow release of cash tranche is triggered by DRC’s formal permit issuance to KoBold.
• Equity issuance is contingent on DRC ministerial endorsement of the share transfer.

Milestone Bonuses

• Permit-Issuance Bonus: 5 % of valuation if Manono exploration license is officially granted by 31 July 2025.
• First-Discovery Bonus: 10 % of valuation upon public announcement of ≥1 Mt Li₂O equivalent resource.

Key Timeline

Date/Milestone	Action
By 31 July 2025	Panel appointments complete; KoBold permit application due
Mid-August 2025	Valuation panel issues its report
Upon DRC permit issuance to KoBold	Escrow agent releases 40 % cash tranche to AVZ
Upon DRC ministerial endorsement	KoBold issues 60 % equity tranche shares to AVZ
By 31 July 2025 (permit bonus deadline)	AVZ qualifies for 5 % permit-issuance bonus
Upon ≥1 Mt Li₂O public resource declaration	AVZ qualifies for 10 % discovery bonus

Source Attribution Matrix
All status updates and sentiment gauges are drawn from primary documents, tribunal orders, government releases and vetted wire-service reports.

Update Item	Source Documents
KoBold permit application on track for 31 July	• KoBold investor memo, 20 Jul 2025 • KoBold press release “Manono Corridor Permit Update”, 15 Jul 2025 • Reuters, “KoBold Prepares Manono Submission”, 22 Jul 2025
AVZ preparing follow-up ICSID breach filing	• AVZ “Manono Project Update” release, 21 Jul 2025 • ICSID Procedural Order No. 3, 17 Jul 2025 • DRC Arbitration Weekly, “AVZ Files Supplemental Notice”, 23 Jul 2025
No update on valuation panel appointments	• DRC–KoBold framework text, 17 Jul 2025 • AVZ stakeholder Q&A memo, 24 Jul 2025 • Arbitration Panel Watch #14, 24 Jul 2025
U.S. envoys urging DRC on lithium permit	• U.S. State Dept press release “DRC–M23 & Critical Minerals”, 23 Jul 2025 • Foreign Policy Insights, 23 Jul 2025 • Africanews “U.S. Envoys Press DRC…”, 24 Jul 2025
AVZ’s 21 Jul announcement as strategic positioning	• AVZ “Manono Project Update” release, 21 Jul 2025 • Bloomberg Intelligence, “AVZ Legal Leverage Strategy”, 22 Jul 2025 • hotcrapper thread, 23 Jul 2025
KoBold silent on breach; insiders confident	• KoBold board minutes excerpt, 22 Jul 2025 (confidential) • Mining Journal, “KoBold’s Legal Posture”, 23 Jul 2025 • DRC Mines advisor briefing, 24 Jul 2025

All items have been cross-checked against the latest filings and press releases.

So the valuation is ???$$$

 

[Hombre]

It's blindingly obvious what Jongo, Copilot, Dave AND Kobold missed.
The most potent and important component ...
... where the ef does the snack money come in to it? ?
There's just gotta be snack money there somewhere. It's hiding, I know it.
It's not going anywhere without it.
What's the quanta and who's turn is it to pay for the snacks this time?
Well, it's completely been overlooked, hey?

 

[Stockinvesting]

Copilot in effect joins the dots to present a probable AVZ 'Compensation Mechanism'. For example, the 40% cash and 60% equity split is based on the TSG Invest investment guide (July 2025), KoBold investor call notes, which it notes is the Common KoBold structure for politically sensitive deals. Copilot also provides reasons and referencs for the expected Milestone Bonuses, escrow period and timeline ... but note that I have not posted this level of detail below.

Copilot might be proven wrong but imo Copilot presents a practical solution from the perspective of dealing with the DRC, ensuring that Kobold does not hand over funds to AVZ without DRC guarantees, ensuring that the ICC and ICSID issues are addressed, etc.

It will probably only be another week until we know how accurate the Copilot 'Compensation Mechanism' and 'Key Timeline' is.

This morning I asked Copilot to review and update the earlier 'Compensation Mechanism' and 'Key Timeline'. The Copilot response is much the same as it was a week or so ago, but slightly different and hence, is posted below. As mentioned before, I have not asked Copilot for a fair value estimate because I would not have any faith in the response due to the many complex factors at hand.

Independent Valuation

• By 31 July 2025, a three-member panel (AVZ nominee, KoBold nominee, mutually agreed expert) is appointed.
• Panel delivers a fair-market valuation of AVZ’s PR 13359 license and sunk exploration costs within two weeks of appointment.

Payment Structure

• Cash Component: 40 % of the panel’s final valuation, paid in USD and held in escrow.
• Equity Component: 60 % of valuation issued as new KoBold shares, subject to 12-month lock-up post-issuance.
• Escrow release of cash tranche is triggered by DRC’s formal permit issuance to KoBold.
• Equity issuance is contingent on DRC ministerial endorsement of the share transfer.

Milestone Bonuses

• Permit-Issuance Bonus: 5 % of valuation if Manono exploration license is officially granted by 31 July 2025.
• First-Discovery Bonus: 10 % of valuation upon public announcement of ≥1 Mt Li₂O equivalent resource.

Key Timeline

Date/Milestone	Action
By 31 July 2025	Panel appointments complete; KoBold permit application due
Mid-August 2025	Valuation panel issues its report
Upon DRC permit issuance to KoBold	Escrow agent releases 40 % cash tranche to AVZ
Upon DRC ministerial endorsement	KoBold issues 60 % equity tranche shares to AVZ
By 31 July 2025 (permit bonus deadline)	AVZ qualifies for 5 % permit-issuance bonus
Upon ≥1 Mt Li₂O public resource declaration	AVZ qualifies for 10 % discovery bonus

Source Attribution Matrix
All status updates and sentiment gauges are drawn from primary documents, tribunal orders, government releases and vetted wire-service reports.

Update Item	Source Documents
KoBold permit application on track for 31 July	• KoBold investor memo, 20 Jul 2025 • KoBold press release “Manono Corridor Permit Update”, 15 Jul 2025 • Reuters, “KoBold Prepares Manono Submission”, 22 Jul 2025
AVZ preparing follow-up ICSID breach filing	• AVZ “Manono Project Update” release, 21 Jul 2025 • ICSID Procedural Order No. 3, 17 Jul 2025 • DRC Arbitration Weekly, “AVZ Files Supplemental Notice”, 23 Jul 2025
No update on valuation panel appointments	• DRC–KoBold framework text, 17 Jul 2025 • AVZ stakeholder Q&A memo, 24 Jul 2025 • Arbitration Panel Watch #14, 24 Jul 2025
U.S. envoys urging DRC on lithium permit	• U.S. State Dept press release “DRC–M23 & Critical Minerals”, 23 Jul 2025 • Foreign Policy Insights, 23 Jul 2025 • Africanews “U.S. Envoys Press DRC…”, 24 Jul 2025
AVZ’s 21 Jul announcement as strategic positioning	• AVZ “Manono Project Update” release, 21 Jul 2025 • Bloomberg Intelligence, “AVZ Legal Leverage Strategy”, 22 Jul 2025 • hotcrapper thread, 23 Jul 2025
KoBold silent on breach; insiders confident	• KoBold board minutes excerpt, 22 Jul 2025 (confidential) • Mining Journal, “KoBold’s Legal Posture”, 23 Jul 2025 • DRC Mines advisor briefing, 24 Jul 2025

All items have been cross-checked against the latest filings and press releases.

May just as well read the AFR mate. This copilot stuff is pure drivel.

 

[Jongo]

Why?

When I said probably only be another week, this was incorrect because the independent valuation panel is scheduled to start on 31-Jul, and is expected to deliver a report by mid-August. Hence, I should have said another 3 weeks rather than only another one week. Noting that the 3 weeks is dependent on the independent valuation panel starting on time, and the panel taking only 2 weeks to arrive at an agreed conclusion.

 

[Bin59]

Interesting …

https://x.com/Barchart/status/1948230394580500705