BRICK
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Maybe a few landcruisers would help as well
AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Frank
Top 20
Ok so other than laughing about them using advanced AI to 'discover' resources, couple of interesting points in this.
1. Yep, we all knew this but good to see it pointed out.
View attachment 80480
BUT MORE INTERESTING -
2. I think this gives us a little insight into Kobolds strategy.
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If Kobold want to go public in 2027-29, I find it highly unlikely they're going to have built up the portfolio of projects to make the most of that just by exploration. Even if you find something, to properly drill it out still takes a lot of time. They need something big and chunky in there. Big and chunky and MANONO-ish
So they're paying to acquire an asset (a very strategic one) but for the big investors on there the payoff isn't going to come from earnings from selling lithium, it will come from the IPO when the rest of the US economy has a chance to buy into the project. Now this all starts getting a bit too technical for me, but it does clearly create a very different value model for Kobold (at least in the short-medium term) compared to say us developing the project with CATH.
I couldn't find back any of the great spreadsheets people had made up to estimate revenue, SP etc in different scenarios, so just for fun I decided to be lazy and use chatGPT.
I'm assuming it meant $12 per share
Anyway, whatever the numbers work out to be, the point is that Kobold has a plan for leveraging the value of there assets in the short-medium term via an IPO. That means they can use different valuation methods, but also that they need SOMETHING more than what they currently have to beef up the company.
If Kobold want to go public in 2027-29, I find it highly unlikely they're going to have built up the portfolio of projects to make the most of that just by exploration. Even if you find something, to properly drill it out still takes a lot of time. They need something big and chunky in there. Big and chunky and MANONO-ish
U.S. Firm Backed by Gates and Bezos Seeks Congo Lithium Exploration
U.S. firm KoBold Metals, whose backers include billionaires Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, is seeking to develop a huge hard rock lithium deposit in the Democratic Republic of Congo as the African country, which also has large cobalt, gold, and cobalt resources, is seeking a minerals partnership with the United States.KoBold Metals has set sights on taking over a mining license for an area, the Manono project, which promises large lithium deposits.
The U.S. firm “would welcome the opportunity to develop the asset,” Sandy Alexander, the chief legal officer of KoBold Metals, wrote in a letter to Congo’s president seen by Bloomberg News.
The Roche Dure resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo “has the potential to become a large-scale, long-lived lithium mine,” KoBold’s Alexander wrote in the letter to the chief of staff of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s President Felix Tshisekedi dated January 21.
Investment in the deposit has been impeded by a legal dispute between Australian firm AVZ Minerals Ltd, China’s Zijin Mining Group Co, and the government of the DRC.
Two years ago, the DRC canceled AVZ Minerals’ exploration license.
It divided the exploration area into two separate areas and handed one of them to the Chinese firm Zijin.
AVZ Minerals earlier this month won a compensation case at the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) over the project.
AVZ Minerals also said that it is in discussions with several U.S.-based parties to raise funding for the lithium project.
KoBold says that it is using AI to explore for minerals.
Currently, the company backed by U.S. entrepreneurs and billionaires is exploring more than 70 projects worldwide.
KoBold Metals could consider bringing in partners to fast-track the development of a new copper mine in another African country, Zambia, that could cost about $2 billion, the start-up’s co-founder and president Josh Goldman told Reuters last month.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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Winenut
Go AVZ!
If I could actually remember what that was I would be dining out on it for all eternity!
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PutUsernameHere
Regular
Did I read somewhere that Manono over its life could conservatively be valued at US$300B? Subject to fluctuating lithium prices (BUT, did they include the tin?).
I'll take US$3ps payout if it includes a 2-5% net royalty from the project for it's lifetime. Gives access to any continued uplift in the project size. Deterra or similar would buy up a tonne of those which would keep board/large holders happy, gives them an exit.
Otherwise US$10ps minimum. In addition to what's already been proven: significantly unproven areas, cost for future increase in lithium pricing, cost for this whole traumatic episode, cost for fuck you Chyna, and let's go tax free on this shemozzle because fuck you DRC..
If Kobold doesn't want to offer what we (not they) consider fair and reasonable, then they can fuck right off back to their cattle ranches. On to ICC/ISCID.
HC threads are heinous compared to here. It's not just fairy land and hopium, but there's matter behind the (positive) madness. It's all still a clusterfuck over there, and that's without hoot hoot.
I'll take US$3ps payout if it includes a 2-5% net royalty from the project for it's lifetime. Gives access to any continued uplift in the project size. Deterra or similar would buy up a tonne of those which would keep board/large holders happy, gives them an exit.
Otherwise US$10ps minimum. In addition to what's already been proven: significantly unproven areas, cost for future increase in lithium pricing, cost for this whole traumatic episode, cost for fuck you Chyna, and let's go tax free on this shemozzle because fuck you DRC..
If Kobold doesn't want to offer what we (not they) consider fair and reasonable, then they can fuck right off back to their cattle ranches. On to ICC/ISCID.
HC threads are heinous compared to here. It's not just fairy land and hopium, but there's matter behind the (positive) madness. It's all still a clusterfuck over there, and that's without hoot hoot.
Hodlandwin69
Regular
300b?! Now you're capping
Let's just stop beating around the bush and make it a round $300 trillion dollarrrrrrrrrs, that's US too of course300b?! Now you're capping
I believe that that figure did not include the tin. Hence, 'Don't forget the tin'.
Also, it did not include the tantalum.
Don't forget the tin and t...
BTW
Let's be clear about Cobbald together.
They are hanging us out to dry about the North, and leaving any compensation to be discussed between AVZ and Zijin.
So Zero compensation.
IMO only, Felix would now be desperate . Desperate to save face and his position and desperate for US support. His only option now, to give the appearance as a clean skin, is distance himself and to sacrifice Cominere and Celestin in a very public way. After Ronny's comments and a stronger spotlight on corruption, you would think this will be sooner rather than later. A necessary domino to clear the path. Maybe behind closed doors somewhere in the DRC, discussions are currently being had as to who is joining Celestin under the bus. This could be spectacular!
Absolutely. He needs to show the US that he is still the man for the job. He obviously isn't, but if the US believe he can maintain security to allow them to extract minerals ethically then he might be able to save his own ass.
Spikerama
Regular
I think the US administration (any of them) would've known for a long time he is not fit for purpose and would be just trying to work it so that he becomes their bitch instead of Chynas.
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100%
Politics is, or should be, an emotionless process. Hence, diplomatic language.
USA, and probably almost everybody outside AVZ SHs and FT's political enemies ( opposition ), has absolutely no interest in DRC internal politics unless it impacts their interests.
FT will not be thrown under a bus and will not throw any of his cronies there unless, in the extremely unlikely event, he needs to.
To do so would weaken the mafia and would be an admission of corruption.
He will only go if US decides that somebody else is more useful. They obviously don't think that atm.
Look at President Grump, and the denial and inaction around the leaked chat. Maintain a united front.
Nuffin to see here guvnor.
There is also no international interest in 'justice'.
FT is not Slobodan Milosevic or even Charles Taylor.
The chances of him being held to account by anyone who wants 'his' lithium is as close to zero as to not be measurable.
As far as coming back for Tommy et al when this shit is over, I personally could not be less interested.
I'll not be contributing to a 'fighting fund' or being involved in the litigation.
I'll leave that to the ( hopefully ) wealthier peeps like the BoD who were far more wronged than us plebs.
I just want to move on.
I would follow it with interest but it won't happen.
Just to confirm what i have said multiple times regards to Graeme Johnston and this purported forgery claim.........its all BULLSHIT !
I spoke to GJ at length regards to this matter a couple of years ago and he looked me in the eye and claims its all fabricated.
This claim / determination has come about without GJ having a opportunity to defend.......FFS !
The BOD has done everything by the book, Cominiere / Dathomir / Zijin / DRC govt have done everything outside the book.
I trust our BOD, therefore i trust GJ.
Move on.
Skar
Regular
And a lump of coal can be turned into a billion dollar diamond by putting it under enough pressure but no one is valuing coal based on the price of diamonds.
Right now China controls the lithium (as a chemical) supply chain. Which is part of the reason why they have managed to suppress the price of spod (and devalue everyone - remember Chris Ellison "if your rock your god"), the other part is they have expensive to use local supply (a different source of lithium called Lepidolite), which they either force their companies to use or subsidise it some other way. So the price of lithium spod has to be lowered to compete with the subsidised price of Lepidolite... some mines even have to operate at a loss in particularly bad economic times or just shut down altogether (CATL has a very large mine in China they start up/shut off as a means of controlling the global price), this has a follow on effect of killing off exploration (as its no longer as investable, we have all seen our portfolios plummet) and consequently crippling new supply coming online (which hyper inflates the price) - the real value is therefore not straight forward, its a multi varable euqation.
The hope is that overtime through a combination of it being too expensive to keep using China local supply, global demand increasing beyond China's ability to manipulate and alternate non-China supply chains coming online, they cant keep doing what they are doing... China see these dangers to their supremacy too, which is why they are going ham buying up control of all global mines & stock and also why the US need to combat China's influence in this space, seems Washington FINALLY gets it (or is finally willing to do something about it).
Point being, depending on how we are positioned, it gives us some leverage and value but we are still just the biggest shiniest rock in a global pile of rocks... the value can only be pushed so far and no one is going to factor in our historic struggles (as a positive) or pay up for pain and suffering through the ordeal.
In 12-18 months when legal issues are resolved, damages applied, funding, a more positive point in the cycle and a diversified global chemical supply chain.... its just too far to speculate on and what the value will be.
I will run out the door right now for $1ps because I can invest the tied up capital elsewhere, if anyone wants an extra million shares.
AVZ would not of deposited money without clear authority to do so ( signatures from Dathomir )..........binding document
Its the same process if you were selling your house, you dont get to change your mind once you realised the value of your house went up 30%down the track.
Laughable.
Me thinks Celestine has a fair bit of ammo to throw FT under the bus too............
Birds of a feather.........stick together.
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