AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Mute22
Regular
oxxa23
Regular
fuck mate, weren't you one of the ones screaming for updates and news?
Mute22
Regular
Alright, folks, this is probably a good time to remind everyone to keep your OPSEC tight. I’m not a big enough holder to be getting winks or steak dinners, but if you hear anything from management, your industry, or anywhere else - no, you bloody didn’t.
If it helps, picture yourself working on the Manhattan Project. Loose lips sink ships, and we’re at a critical stage where we need all opposing parties second-guessing themselves, assuming everyone else is making moves.
This is a great place to have a bit of banter, but let’s not forget, these channels are definitely being watched by paid FUD agents and criminals, not just to gather intel but to sow doubt and confusion. Stay sharp.
If it helps, picture yourself working on the Manhattan Project. Loose lips sink ships, and we’re at a critical stage where we need all opposing parties second-guessing themselves, assuming everyone else is making moves.
This is a great place to have a bit of banter, but let’s not forget, these channels are definitely being watched by paid FUD agents and criminals, not just to gather intel but to sow doubt and confusion. Stay sharp.
oxxa23
Regular
i don't want to sponsor crime or war... but, fuck... is it sponsoring if we just drop off a suitcase of cash and a note near a rebel camp?
"The company has offered to compensate AVZ Minerals."Gates and Bezos-Backed Startup Pursues Congo’s Lithium Resources
ByJohn Zadehon March 25, 2025
Who Are the Billionaire Backers Behind KoBold Metals' Congo Lithium Play?
KoBold Metals has emerged as one of the most well-funded mining startups in recent history, attracting investments from some of the world's richest tech entrepreneurs. The company has secured over $400 million in funding from an impressive roster of backers, with Bill Gates' Breakthrough Energy Ventures and Jeff Bezos' Bezos Expeditions leading the charge. These billionaire investors are betting on KoBold's AI-driven approach to transform mineral exploration and secure critical battery materials.
Beyond Gates and Bezos, KoBold has attracted investment from other prominent figures and organizations in the tech world. This backing provides not just capital but strategic advantages in technology development and market positioning. The company's approach aligns perfectly with these investors' interest in clean energy transition and technological innovation.
KoBold's CEO Josh Goldman has publicly stated, "We plan to go public within three to four years," signaling confidence in the company's growth trajectory and ability to deliver returns to its high-profile investors. This timeline suggests a potential IPO around 2027-2028, giving the company adequate time to develop its flagship projects and demonstrate the effectiveness of its AI-powered exploration model.
The strategic importance of lithium for electric vehicle batteries makes KoBold's Congo project especially attractive to investors who are positioning themselves for the green energy transition. As demand for EVs continues to rise globally, securing lithium supply chains has become a priority for forward-thinking investors exploring revolutionizing lithium production for clean energy.
What Is KoBold Metals and Why Is It Making Headlines?
KoBold Metals is revolutionizing mineral exploration through its proprietary artificial intelligence platform that analyzes vast amounts of geological data to identify promising deposits with unprecedented accuracy. Founded in 2018, the company has rapidly established itself as a disruptive force in the mining industry by combining machine learning algorithms with traditional geological expertise.
The company has recently approached the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government with an ambitious proposal to develop one of the world's largest hard rock lithium mines at the Roche Dure deposit. This move represents a significant step in establishing the DRC as a major player in the global lithium market, beyond its already dominant position in cobalt production.
KoBold's approach to mining differs fundamentally from traditional companies. Rather than relying solely on conventional geological surveys, the company leverages AI's role in revolutionizing sustainable mining operations to process petabytes of data, identifying patterns and anomalies that human geologists might miss. This technology-first approach has attracted significant attention from investors looking to modernize the traditionally conservative mining sector.
The company's most successful project to date is the Mingomba copper asset in neighboring Zambia, which industry analysts believe could rival Zijin Mining's Kamoa-Kakula operation. For context, Kamoa-Kakula produced nearly 400,000 tons of copper in 2023, highlighting the potential scale of KoBold's Zambian project. This track record of success adds credibility to the company's ambitious plans in the DRC.
How Is KoBold Attempting to Resolve the Roche Dure Dispute?
The Roche Dure lithium deposit has been at the center of a complex international dispute since 2023, when the DRC government controversially split the mining permit that was previously held by Australia's AVZ Minerals. This decision effectively revoked AVZ's rights to a portion of the deposit and created a complicated ownership situation that has hindered development of this strategic resource.
KoBold's proposal offers a pragmatic solution to break the deadlock. The company has offered to compensate AVZ Minerals for its lost stake while simultaneously acquiring the remaining interest held by the Australian firm. This approach acknowledges the existing claims while providing a path forward for development.
A crucial element of KoBold's strategy is allowing China's Zijin Mining Group to maintain control over the northern section of the deposit, which was allocated to them following the permit split. This diplomatic approach recognizes the reality on the ground while creating space for Western investment in the southern portion.
"Our proposal creates a win-win solution for all stakeholders involved," a KoBold representative stated. "We respect existing rights while providing fair compensation and bringing cutting-edge technology to maximize the value of this world-class resource." This balanced approach has garnered support from various stakeholders, including government officials seeking to resolve the impasse.
The resolution of this dispute carries significant implications for international mining law and precedent in the DRC. Foreign investors have been closely watching how the government handles these complex mining rights issues, as it will inform their risk assessments for future projects in the mineral-rich nation.
What Makes KoBold's Technology Different from Traditional Mining Companies?
KoBold's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary Machine Prospector™ platform, which harnesses artificial intelligence and machine learning to analyze geological data with unprecedented precision. This technology combines historical mining records, satellite imagery, geophysical surveys, and chemical analyses to identify promising mineral deposits that traditional methods might overlook.
According to industry experts, KoBold's AI-driven approach reduces exploration costs by approximately 30% compared to conventional methods. This efficiency gain comes from more targeted drilling programs that minimize wasted effort and resources, while simultaneously increasing the probability of successful discoveries.
"Our algorithms process petabytes of geological data in weeks, not years," explained KoBold's Chief Technology Officer. "We can identify subtle patterns across diverse datasets that would be virtually impossible for human geologists to detect, no matter how experienced." This computational power enables KoBold to evaluate potential sites more thoroughly than competitors.
The Mingomba copper discovery in Zambia serves as compelling validation of KoBold's technological approach. The deposit was identified through AI analysis that detected subtle anomalies in soil samples and geophysical data that traditional exploration methods had previously missed. Mining analysts estimate that Mingomba could become one of Africa's largest copper producers when it enters production in the early 2030s.
KoBold's technology also extends beyond initial discovery to optimize extraction processes and reduce environmental impact. By creating more accurate three-dimensional models of ore bodies, the company can design more efficient mining operations that minimize waste rock production and water usage – critical considerations for sustainable mining practices.
What Is the Geopolitical Significance of This Lithium Project?
The Roche Dure lithium project carries immense geopolitical weight as Western powers seek to counter China's dominance in critical mineral supply chains. While the DRC produces approximately 70% of the world's cobalt, it has remained a minor player in lithium production despite possessing significant reserves. KoBold's entrance represents a potential shift in this dynamic.
The project aligns with the Biden administration's "minerals-for-security" strategy, which aims to strengthen relationships with African nations through investment in critical mineral projects. This approach offers the DRC access to Western technology and capital in exchange for secure supply chains that reduce dependence on Chinese-controlled resources.
"Who controls lithium controls the EV supply chain," noted a prominent energy strategist. "This project represents more than just a mine – it's a strategic foothold in the clean energy economy of the future." The U.S. Export-Import Bank has reportedly expressed interest in providing financial guarantees worth up to $1.5 billion for critical mineral projects in Africa, signaling the strategic importance Washington places on these resources.
The regional security implications cannot be overlooked. Eastern DRC continues to face instability from various armed groups, with mineral wealth often fueling conflict. A successful Western-backed project could potentially improve governance and security in mining regions, although challenges remain significant.
Chinese companies, including Zijin Mining, have established a substantial presence in DRC's mining sector. KoBold's entry introduces Western competition in what has increasingly become a Chinese-dominated industry. This competitive dynamic adds complexity to the project's development and highlights its role in navigating resource nationalism in the global critical minerals race.
How Has the Lithium Market Been Performing?
The global lithium market has experienced extreme volatility over the past two years, with prices plummeting approximately 80% from their peak in late 2022. At that time, battery-grade lithium carbonate reached nearly $85,000 per ton before crashing to around $17,000 per ton in early 2024. This dramatic correction resulted from new supply coming online and slightly slower-than-anticipated electric vehicle adoption.
Despite this price collapse, major mining companies have continued expanding their lithium operations, demonstrating confidence in long-term demand fundamentals. China's Zijin Mining has maintained aggressive growth plans, with its Chief Financial Officer stating, "We're acquiring assets while others retreat. The current market represents an opportunity for companies with long-term vision."
The price volatility has prompted market participants to adopt more sophisticated hedging strategies. Several major automakers have entered into long-term supply agreements with fixed or floor prices to insulate themselves from market fluctuations. Tesla's 2024 lithium contract with Zimbabwe highlights these concerns about future supply security, despite current low prices.
Industry analysts project a potential supply deficit by 2028-2030 as electric vehicle adoption accelerates globally. EV sales are forecast to represent approximately 30% of global car sales by 2030, creating sustained demand growth for battery materials. This anticipated supply-demand imbalance explains why companies like Rio Tinto are raising $9 billion in debt for lithium acquisitions despite current low prices.
The market is also witnessing increasing vertical integration, with battery manufacturers and automakers taking direct stakes in mining operations to secure supply chains. This structural change suggests that control of physical assets is becoming more important than spot market prices for strategic players in the lithium value chain.
What Environmental Concerns Surround Hard Rock Lithium Mining?
Hard rock lithium mining, the method that would be employed at Roche Dure, presents significant environmental challenges compared to alternative extraction techniques. This approach requires extensive open-pit excavation that fundamentally alters landscapes and ecosystems. Studies indicate that hard rock mining produces approximately five times more waste than brine-based lithium extraction methods.
Water consumption represents another major concern, with processing facilities requiring approximately 2.2 million liters of water per ton of lithium produced. In regions already facing water scarcity or during dry seasons, this intensive usage can strain local resources and potentially impact surrounding communities that rely on the same water sources.
The processing of lithium ore involves toxic chemicals, including concentrated sulfuric acid for leaching operations. Without proper containment systems, these chemicals pose significant risks to groundwater and surface water resources. An environmental NGO representative warned, "DRC's regulations must prevent another resource curse. The country's history with extractive industries demonstrates the need for rigorous environmental safeguards."
Comparison with other lithium sources highlights these concerns. Chile's Atacama Desert brine operations have faced legal challenges over aquifer depletion, yet still generally have smaller footprints than hard rock mining. Australia's hard rock operations, while environmentally intensive, operate under stricter regulatory frameworks than currently exist in the DRC.
Mining companies, including KoBold, have increasingly recognized these concerns and begun implementing mitigation strategies. These include water recycling systems, dry-stacking tailings to reduce dam risks, and progressive site rehabilitation. However, the effectiveness of these measures depends on rigorous implementation and enforcement of environmental standards – areas where the DRC has historically struggled.
How Does This Project Compare to Other Global Lithium Developments?
The Roche Dure project enters a competitive global landscape where established producers and emerging players are rapidly expanding capacity. Australia currently dominates hard rock lithium production, with its Greenbushes mine alone producing approximately 160,000 tons annually – representing about 25% of global supply. The DRC project would need to achieve significant scale to compete effectively with these established operations.
In South America's "Lithium Triangle" spanning Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, numerous brine operations are expanding with substantial Chinese financing. These projects generally have lower operating costs than hard rock mines but require longer development timeframes. The DRC's comparative advantage lies in its significantly lower labor costs, with mining wages averaging around $5 per day compared to Australia's heavily automated operations.
Russia has announced ambitious plans to launch large-scale lithium production by 2030, targeting 50,000 tons per year of output. This development, along with China's domestic production growth, indicates increasing competition among geopolitical rivals for control of the lithium supply chain.
The DRC project benefits from potentially higher ore grades than many competing sites. Preliminary assessments suggest lithium oxide concentrations exceeding 1.6% at Roche Dure, compared to the global average of approximately 1.2% for hard rock deposits. These superior grades could partially offset higher operating costs associated with the DRC's limited infrastructure.
"The lithium race isn't about volume—it's about refining capacity," noted an industry analyst. This insight highlights a crucial challenge for the DRC project. While mining the ore represents one hurdle, developing the processing capacity to produce battery-grade materials represents another significant investment requirement that competitors in more developed regions may more easily overcome. Countries like Bolivia face lithium mining challenges and prospects similar to those confronting the DRC.
What Could This Mean for the Future of Battery Supply Chains?
The development of the Roche Dure deposit could significantly diversify global lithium supply chains that are currently dominated by a handful of countries. Industry estimates suggest the project could eventually supply enough lithium for approximately 500 million electric vehicle batteries, representing a substantial contribution to global capacity.
KoBold's projected timeline, with production potentially beginning in the early 2030s, aligns strategically with the European Union's planned ban on internal combustion engine vehicles. This synchronization could position the company to capitalize on surging European demand for battery materials at precisely the right moment.
The quality of Roche Dure's ore presents another advantage. The deposit is expected to yield lithium capable of being refined to the 99.5% purity required for battery-grade applications. This high quality would potentially allow production to command premium prices in a market increasingly focused on material specifications rather than merely volume.
"This project diversifies supply away from China's 60% market control," a trade analyst noted. This shift carries implications beyond mere commercial considerations. Western governments have identified critical mineral supply chains as national security priorities, with the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act specifically incentivizing materials sourced from countries with free trade agreements or processed domestically.
The ultimate impact of this project depends heavily on two factors: development timeline and processing location. If KoBold can accelerate production and establish refining capacity outside China's sphere of influence, the project could significantly reshape global battery supply chains. However, if the ore is ultimately shipped to Chinese processors, the geopolitical impact would be substantially diminished despite Western ownership of the mine itself. Some countries are pursuing innovative approaches like Saudi Arabia's pioneering pilot in lithium extraction to diversify supply chains.
FAQ: KoBold Metals and the DRC Lithium Project
When will the Mingomba copper asset become operational?
Based on current development timelines, the Mingomba copper project in Zambia is expected to begin production in the early 2030s. The project requires significant infrastructure development, including transportation links and power supply, before mining operations can commence at scale.
What is the current status of AVZ Minerals' claim to the Roche Dure deposit?
AVZ Minerals lost its rights to portions of the Roche Dure lithium project in 2023 when the DRC government controversially split the mining permit. The company has pursued legal action in international arbitration, but the government's decision effectively transferred control of the northern section to China's Zijin Mining Group while leaving the southern portion's status uncertain.
How does hard rock lithium mining compare to other extraction methods?
Hard rock lithium mining is generally more environmentally intensive than brine extraction methods. It produces approximately five times more waste rock, requires more water (about 2.2 million liters per ton of lithium), and involves more energy-intensive processing. However, it typically offers faster time-to-market and more consistent production than brine operations, which are highly dependent on evaporation rates and weather conditions.
What is the expected timeline for KoBold Metals' IPO?
According to CEO Josh Goldman, KoBold Metals plans to pursue an initial public offering within three to four years, suggesting a potential market debut around 2027-2028. This timeline allows the company to further develop its project portfolio and demonstrate the effectiveness of its AI-driven exploration approach before seeking public investment.
How might this project affect global lithium prices?
While the Roche Dure project represents significant potential supply, its impact on global prices depends on development timing and overall market conditions. If production begins during a period of supply deficit (projected by some analysts for 2028-2030), it could help stabilize prices. However, if multiple large projects come online simultaneously, it could contribute to price suppression. The project's long development timeline means it's unlikely to affect near-term pricing but could influence medium to long-term market dynamics.
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I know this may seem obvious , but I think it's the first time they have worded it like this .
So what's the down side for the DRC ?
Last edited:
It's how they use AI.View attachment 80479
Advanded AI reduces exploration costs!!
buuuuut it's still more effective to just go and buy a resource after someone else has done all the exploration already
Just ask grok where is the best and largest Lithium deposit in the world.
And the answer is Manono RD, so simple.
After hop on a plane, sneak through the back door into the sample library to verify the answer.
This is how Bill Gates obtained MSDOS...
Bill Gates obtained the operating system that became MS-DOS by purchasing the rights to 86-DOS (later renamed MS-DOS) from Seattle Computer Products (SCP) for $50,000, which was originally developed by Tim Paterson as QDOS (Quick and Dirty Operating System).
Here's a more detailed explanation:
- The Need for an Operating System: IBM approached Microsoft to develop an operating system for their new personal computer, the IBM PC.
- Tim Paterson's QDOS: Tim Paterson, a programmer at Seattle Computer Products (SCP), developed a variant of CP/M-80 called QDOS (Quick and Dirty Operating System) as an internal product for testing SCP's new 16-bit Intel 8086 CPU card.
- 86-DOS: SCP later made QDOS commercially available, renaming it 86-DOS.
- Microsoft's Purchase: Microsoft purchased 86-DOS from SCP for $50,000.
- MS-DOS: Microsoft hired Tim Paterson to modify and adapt 86-DOS for the IBM PC, renaming it MS-DOS (Microsoft Disk Operating System).
- IBM's PC DOS: Microsoft licensed MS-DOS to IBM, which then sold it as PC DOS for the IBM PC.
Is there anyone who thinks Bill Gates is going to pay US billions for Manono??
Better wake up quick!!!
Winenut
Go AVZ!
X...
Like social media anyone can be anyone.
Our competitors have shown to be masters in falsifying documents.
So is it Graeme? call and ask him.....
Ok so other than laughing about them using advanced AI to 'discover' resources, couple of interesting points in this.Gates and Bezos-Backed Startup Pursues Congo’s Lithium Resources
ByJohn Zadehon March 25, 2025
Who Are the Billionaire Backers Behind KoBold Metals' Congo Lithium Play?
KoBold Metals has emerged as one of the most well-funded mining startups in recent history, attracting investments from some of the world's richest tech entrepreneurs. The company has secured over $400 million in funding from an impressive roster of backers, with Bill Gates' Breakthrough Energy Ventures and Jeff Bezos' Bezos Expeditions leading the charge. These billionaire investors are betting on KoBold's AI-driven approach to transform mineral exploration and secure critical battery materials.
Beyond Gates and Bezos, KoBold has attracted investment from other prominent figures and organizations in the tech world. This backing provides not just capital but strategic advantages in technology development and market positioning. The company's approach aligns perfectly with these investors' interest in clean energy transition and technological innovation.
KoBold's CEO Josh Goldman has publicly stated, "We plan to go public within three to four years," signaling confidence in the company's growth trajectory and ability to deliver returns to its high-profile investors. This timeline suggests a potential IPO around 2027-2028, giving the company adequate time to develop its flagship projects and demonstrate the effectiveness of its AI-powered exploration model.
The strategic importance of lithium for electric vehicle batteries makes KoBold's Congo project especially attractive to investors who are positioning themselves for the green energy transition. As demand for EVs continues to rise globally, securing lithium supply chains has become a priority for forward-thinking investors exploring revolutionizing lithium production for clean energy.
What Is KoBold Metals and Why Is It Making Headlines?
KoBold Metals is revolutionizing mineral exploration through its proprietary artificial intelligence platform that analyzes vast amounts of geological data to identify promising deposits with unprecedented accuracy. Founded in 2018, the company has rapidly established itself as a disruptive force in the mining industry by combining machine learning algorithms with traditional geological expertise.
The company has recently approached the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government with an ambitious proposal to develop one of the world's largest hard rock lithium mines at the Roche Dure deposit. This move represents a significant step in establishing the DRC as a major player in the global lithium market, beyond its already dominant position in cobalt production.
KoBold's approach to mining differs fundamentally from traditional companies. Rather than relying solely on conventional geological surveys, the company leverages AI's role in revolutionizing sustainable mining operations to process petabytes of data, identifying patterns and anomalies that human geologists might miss. This technology-first approach has attracted significant attention from investors looking to modernize the traditionally conservative mining sector.
The company's most successful project to date is the Mingomba copper asset in neighboring Zambia, which industry analysts believe could rival Zijin Mining's Kamoa-Kakula operation. For context, Kamoa-Kakula produced nearly 400,000 tons of copper in 2023, highlighting the potential scale of KoBold's Zambian project. This track record of success adds credibility to the company's ambitious plans in the DRC.
How Is KoBold Attempting to Resolve the Roche Dure Dispute?
The Roche Dure lithium deposit has been at the center of a complex international dispute since 2023, when the DRC government controversially split the mining permit that was previously held by Australia's AVZ Minerals. This decision effectively revoked AVZ's rights to a portion of the deposit and created a complicated ownership situation that has hindered development of this strategic resource.
KoBold's proposal offers a pragmatic solution to break the deadlock. The company has offered to compensate AVZ Minerals for its lost stake while simultaneously acquiring the remaining interest held by the Australian firm. This approach acknowledges the existing claims while providing a path forward for development.
A crucial element of KoBold's strategy is allowing China's Zijin Mining Group to maintain control over the northern section of the deposit, which was allocated to them following the permit split. This diplomatic approach recognizes the reality on the ground while creating space for Western investment in the southern portion.
"Our proposal creates a win-win solution for all stakeholders involved," a KoBold representative stated. "We respect existing rights while providing fair compensation and bringing cutting-edge technology to maximize the value of this world-class resource." This balanced approach has garnered support from various stakeholders, including government officials seeking to resolve the impasse.
The resolution of this dispute carries significant implications for international mining law and precedent in the DRC. Foreign investors have been closely watching how the government handles these complex mining rights issues, as it will inform their risk assessments for future projects in the mineral-rich nation.
What Makes KoBold's Technology Different from Traditional Mining Companies?
KoBold's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary Machine Prospector™ platform, which harnesses artificial intelligence and machine learning to analyze geological data with unprecedented precision. This technology combines historical mining records, satellite imagery, geophysical surveys, and chemical analyses to identify promising mineral deposits that traditional methods might overlook.
According to industry experts, KoBold's AI-driven approach reduces exploration costs by approximately 30% compared to conventional methods. This efficiency gain comes from more targeted drilling programs that minimize wasted effort and resources, while simultaneously increasing the probability of successful discoveries.
"Our algorithms process petabytes of geological data in weeks, not years," explained KoBold's Chief Technology Officer. "We can identify subtle patterns across diverse datasets that would be virtually impossible for human geologists to detect, no matter how experienced." This computational power enables KoBold to evaluate potential sites more thoroughly than competitors.
The Mingomba copper discovery in Zambia serves as compelling validation of KoBold's technological approach. The deposit was identified through AI analysis that detected subtle anomalies in soil samples and geophysical data that traditional exploration methods had previously missed. Mining analysts estimate that Mingomba could become one of Africa's largest copper producers when it enters production in the early 2030s.
KoBold's technology also extends beyond initial discovery to optimize extraction processes and reduce environmental impact. By creating more accurate three-dimensional models of ore bodies, the company can design more efficient mining operations that minimize waste rock production and water usage – critical considerations for sustainable mining practices.
What Is the Geopolitical Significance of This Lithium Project?
The Roche Dure lithium project carries immense geopolitical weight as Western powers seek to counter China's dominance in critical mineral supply chains. While the DRC produces approximately 70% of the world's cobalt, it has remained a minor player in lithium production despite possessing significant reserves. KoBold's entrance represents a potential shift in this dynamic.
The project aligns with the Biden administration's "minerals-for-security" strategy, which aims to strengthen relationships with African nations through investment in critical mineral projects. This approach offers the DRC access to Western technology and capital in exchange for secure supply chains that reduce dependence on Chinese-controlled resources.
"Who controls lithium controls the EV supply chain," noted a prominent energy strategist. "This project represents more than just a mine – it's a strategic foothold in the clean energy economy of the future." The U.S. Export-Import Bank has reportedly expressed interest in providing financial guarantees worth up to $1.5 billion for critical mineral projects in Africa, signaling the strategic importance Washington places on these resources.
The regional security implications cannot be overlooked. Eastern DRC continues to face instability from various armed groups, with mineral wealth often fueling conflict. A successful Western-backed project could potentially improve governance and security in mining regions, although challenges remain significant.
Chinese companies, including Zijin Mining, have established a substantial presence in DRC's mining sector. KoBold's entry introduces Western competition in what has increasingly become a Chinese-dominated industry. This competitive dynamic adds complexity to the project's development and highlights its role in navigating resource nationalism in the global critical minerals race.
How Has the Lithium Market Been Performing?
The global lithium market has experienced extreme volatility over the past two years, with prices plummeting approximately 80% from their peak in late 2022. At that time, battery-grade lithium carbonate reached nearly $85,000 per ton before crashing to around $17,000 per ton in early 2024. This dramatic correction resulted from new supply coming online and slightly slower-than-anticipated electric vehicle adoption.
Despite this price collapse, major mining companies have continued expanding their lithium operations, demonstrating confidence in long-term demand fundamentals. China's Zijin Mining has maintained aggressive growth plans, with its Chief Financial Officer stating, "We're acquiring assets while others retreat. The current market represents an opportunity for companies with long-term vision."
The price volatility has prompted market participants to adopt more sophisticated hedging strategies. Several major automakers have entered into long-term supply agreements with fixed or floor prices to insulate themselves from market fluctuations. Tesla's 2024 lithium contract with Zimbabwe highlights these concerns about future supply security, despite current low prices.
Industry analysts project a potential supply deficit by 2028-2030 as electric vehicle adoption accelerates globally. EV sales are forecast to represent approximately 30% of global car sales by 2030, creating sustained demand growth for battery materials. This anticipated supply-demand imbalance explains why companies like Rio Tinto are raising $9 billion in debt for lithium acquisitions despite current low prices.
The market is also witnessing increasing vertical integration, with battery manufacturers and automakers taking direct stakes in mining operations to secure supply chains. This structural change suggests that control of physical assets is becoming more important than spot market prices for strategic players in the lithium value chain.
What Environmental Concerns Surround Hard Rock Lithium Mining?
Hard rock lithium mining, the method that would be employed at Roche Dure, presents significant environmental challenges compared to alternative extraction techniques. This approach requires extensive open-pit excavation that fundamentally alters landscapes and ecosystems. Studies indicate that hard rock mining produces approximately five times more waste than brine-based lithium extraction methods.
Water consumption represents another major concern, with processing facilities requiring approximately 2.2 million liters of water per ton of lithium produced. In regions already facing water scarcity or during dry seasons, this intensive usage can strain local resources and potentially impact surrounding communities that rely on the same water sources.
The processing of lithium ore involves toxic chemicals, including concentrated sulfuric acid for leaching operations. Without proper containment systems, these chemicals pose significant risks to groundwater and surface water resources. An environmental NGO representative warned, "DRC's regulations must prevent another resource curse. The country's history with extractive industries demonstrates the need for rigorous environmental safeguards."
Comparison with other lithium sources highlights these concerns. Chile's Atacama Desert brine operations have faced legal challenges over aquifer depletion, yet still generally have smaller footprints than hard rock mining. Australia's hard rock operations, while environmentally intensive, operate under stricter regulatory frameworks than currently exist in the DRC.
Mining companies, including KoBold, have increasingly recognized these concerns and begun implementing mitigation strategies. These include water recycling systems, dry-stacking tailings to reduce dam risks, and progressive site rehabilitation. However, the effectiveness of these measures depends on rigorous implementation and enforcement of environmental standards – areas where the DRC has historically struggled.
How Does This Project Compare to Other Global Lithium Developments?
The Roche Dure project enters a competitive global landscape where established producers and emerging players are rapidly expanding capacity. Australia currently dominates hard rock lithium production, with its Greenbushes mine alone producing approximately 160,000 tons annually – representing about 25% of global supply. The DRC project would need to achieve significant scale to compete effectively with these established operations.
In South America's "Lithium Triangle" spanning Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, numerous brine operations are expanding with substantial Chinese financing. These projects generally have lower operating costs than hard rock mines but require longer development timeframes. The DRC's comparative advantage lies in its significantly lower labor costs, with mining wages averaging around $5 per day compared to Australia's heavily automated operations.
Russia has announced ambitious plans to launch large-scale lithium production by 2030, targeting 50,000 tons per year of output. This development, along with China's domestic production growth, indicates increasing competition among geopolitical rivals for control of the lithium supply chain.
The DRC project benefits from potentially higher ore grades than many competing sites. Preliminary assessments suggest lithium oxide concentrations exceeding 1.6% at Roche Dure, compared to the global average of approximately 1.2% for hard rock deposits. These superior grades could partially offset higher operating costs associated with the DRC's limited infrastructure.
"The lithium race isn't about volume—it's about refining capacity," noted an industry analyst. This insight highlights a crucial challenge for the DRC project. While mining the ore represents one hurdle, developing the processing capacity to produce battery-grade materials represents another significant investment requirement that competitors in more developed regions may more easily overcome. Countries like Bolivia face lithium mining challenges and prospects similar to those confronting the DRC.
What Could This Mean for the Future of Battery Supply Chains?
The development of the Roche Dure deposit could significantly diversify global lithium supply chains that are currently dominated by a handful of countries. Industry estimates suggest the project could eventually supply enough lithium for approximately 500 million electric vehicle batteries, representing a substantial contribution to global capacity.
KoBold's projected timeline, with production potentially beginning in the early 2030s, aligns strategically with the European Union's planned ban on internal combustion engine vehicles. This synchronization could position the company to capitalize on surging European demand for battery materials at precisely the right moment.
The quality of Roche Dure's ore presents another advantage. The deposit is expected to yield lithium capable of being refined to the 99.5% purity required for battery-grade applications. This high quality would potentially allow production to command premium prices in a market increasingly focused on material specifications rather than merely volume.
"This project diversifies supply away from China's 60% market control," a trade analyst noted. This shift carries implications beyond mere commercial considerations. Western governments have identified critical mineral supply chains as national security priorities, with the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act specifically incentivizing materials sourced from countries with free trade agreements or processed domestically.
The ultimate impact of this project depends heavily on two factors: development timeline and processing location. If KoBold can accelerate production and establish refining capacity outside China's sphere of influence, the project could significantly reshape global battery supply chains. However, if the ore is ultimately shipped to Chinese processors, the geopolitical impact would be substantially diminished despite Western ownership of the mine itself. Some countries are pursuing innovative approaches like Saudi Arabia's pioneering pilot in lithium extraction to diversify supply chains.
FAQ: KoBold Metals and the DRC Lithium Project
When will the Mingomba copper asset become operational?
Based on current development timelines, the Mingomba copper project in Zambia is expected to begin production in the early 2030s. The project requires significant infrastructure development, including transportation links and power supply, before mining operations can commence at scale.
What is the current status of AVZ Minerals' claim to the Roche Dure deposit?
AVZ Minerals lost its rights to portions of the Roche Dure lithium project in 2023 when the DRC government controversially split the mining permit. The company has pursued legal action in international arbitration, but the government's decision effectively transferred control of the northern section to China's Zijin Mining Group while leaving the southern portion's status uncertain.
How does hard rock lithium mining compare to other extraction methods?
Hard rock lithium mining is generally more environmentally intensive than brine extraction methods. It produces approximately five times more waste rock, requires more water (about 2.2 million liters per ton of lithium), and involves more energy-intensive processing. However, it typically offers faster time-to-market and more consistent production than brine operations, which are highly dependent on evaporation rates and weather conditions.
What is the expected timeline for KoBold Metals' IPO?
According to CEO Josh Goldman, KoBold Metals plans to pursue an initial public offering within three to four years, suggesting a potential market debut around 2027-2028. This timeline allows the company to further develop its project portfolio and demonstrate the effectiveness of its AI-driven exploration approach before seeking public investment.
How might this project affect global lithium prices?
While the Roche Dure project represents significant potential supply, its impact on global prices depends on development timing and overall market conditions. If production begins during a period of supply deficit (projected by some analysts for 2028-2030), it could help stabilize prices. However, if multiple large projects come online simultaneously, it could contribute to price suppression. The project's long development timeline means it's unlikely to affect near-term pricing but could influence medium to long-term market dynamics.
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1. Yep, we all knew this but good to see it pointed out.
BUT MORE INTERESTING -
2. I think this gives us a little insight into Kobolds strategy.
If Kobold want to go public in 2027-29, I find it highly unlikely they're going to have built up the portfolio of projects to make the most of that just by exploration. Even if you find something, to properly drill it out still takes a lot of time. They need something big and chunky in there. Big and chunky and MANONO-ish
So they're paying to acquire an asset (a very strategic one) but for the big investors on there the payoff isn't going to come from earnings from selling lithium, it will come from the IPO when the rest of the US economy has a chance to buy into the project. Now this all starts getting a bit too technical for me, but it does clearly create a very different value model for Kobold (at least in the short-medium term) compared to say us developing the project with CATH.
I couldn't find back any of the great spreadsheets people had made up to estimate revenue, SP etc in different scenarios, so just for fun I decided to be lazy and use chatGPT.
I'm assuming it meant $12 per share
Anyway, whatever the numbers work out to be, the point is that Kobold has a plan for leveraging the value of there assets in the short-medium term via an IPO. That means they can use different valuation methods, but also that they need SOMETHING more than what they currently have to beef up the company.
BRICK
Top 20
I agree with you 100% but I had to responded with
because that picture is just too good.
oxxa23
Regular
righto fuckers, how do we get behind this paywall?
www.africabusinessplus.com
Lithium de Manono : nouveaux rebondissements dans le conflit AVZ vs Cominière - Africa Business+
La compagnie publique congolaise Cominière a été condamnée le 10 mars par la Chambre de commerce internationale de Paris à verser 39 millions d’euros à la junior australienne. La procédure est cependant loin d’être terminée.
Mute22
Regular
Usually have to wait a bit for the article to be cached to be able to be picked up be engines like waybackmachine ect.righto fuckers, how do we get behind this paywall?
Lithium de Manono : nouveaux rebondissements dans le conflit AVZ vs Cominière - Africa Business+
La compagnie publique congolaise Cominière a été condamnée le 10 mars par la Chambre de commerce internationale de Paris à verser 39 millions d’euros à la junior australienne. La procédure est cependant loin d’être terminée.
oxxa23
Regular
sorry mute.. can you translate that from french to english?
Carlos Danger
Top 20
The way it reads seemed so odd coming from the only person so far to school me on something in the DRC mining code hahaSorry I should of stated my post as a fact rather than a question
Oops
RHyNO
Regular
Yeah but not bad news. I want that good hopium bro. Not this shit! Wrong goddamn strain of news.
oxxa23
Regular
Haha, I have commented myself thuis week after a few years of being really patient its amazing how some good news gets the hopes up and patience down...
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