AVZ Discussion 2022

[PhatCatz]

Trump launches critical minerals probe to weigh new tariffs

The administration could consider levies on critical minerals, following other sector-specific tariffs imposed on steel and aluminium, automobiles and car parts.

www.afr.com

The findings will be damning and I suspect something Trump won't appreciate. China controls that narrative.

Goes without saying, but this just further drives the need for Manono to stay in western hands.

Also another item from the AFR.

https://www.afr.com/world/asia/how-china-plans-to-cripple-the-us-in-trade-war-20250415-p5lrxc

 

[Carlos Danger]

In your opinion (and for that matter, everyone else's opinion) when will the ICSID's final verdict be handed down?

Are we looking at over 3 months after the hearing starts?? (The 46 day counter) or is this when the decision is handed down??
Is it possible that to strike a deal, all AVZ is waiting on is the final ICSID decision that gives clear legal ownership of Manono to AVZ.?

To me it makes sense that .multiple deals have been worked on in thr background for many months. The ICSID decision is the certainty that these deals and discussions need to be signed off on.

2027 at the earliest

 

[Carlos Danger]

ICSID will have to finalise before any deal is penned. The US gov will want a finalisation of the proceedings before determining how much to pay and who really are the bad eggs in all of this. There's no way charges will drop as this has gone up through 2 court systems and there won't be a "sorry, we'll just chuck it all away and take some money and be ok".

As for compensation, AVZ stated some specific figures but there's also the claim of reputation damage which could potentially incur billions of penalties. Whether there is a claim thrown in there for loss of income and potential income could also be in the billions.

$12 sounds about right anyways. lol

KoBold are keen to get a deal done before ICSID finalises. Whether AVZ accept the discount offer or push ahead to 2027 and beyond for enforcement is up in the air. But the gringos do not care about the ICSID outcome and specifically stated that all legal cases need to be dropped for the deal.

Which 2 court systems are you referring to?

If you are talking about ICSID and ICC they are looking at different issues and have vastly different rules as Cominiere humiliatingly found out when trying to have the partial award at the ICC thrown out on the basis that the ICSID excluded the north from the interim measures imo

 

[Powerage]

In your opinion (and for that matter, everyone else's opinion) when will the ICSID's final verdict be handed down?

Are we looking at over 3 months after the hearing starts?? (The 46 day counter) or is this when the decision is handed down??
Is it possible that to strike a deal, all AVZ is waiting on is the final ICSID decision that gives clear legal ownership of Manono to AVZ.?

To me it makes sense that .multiple deals have been worked on in thr background for many months. The ICSID decision is the certainty that these deals and discussions need to be signed off on.

Hey Dijon,

Expect 3 months of deliberation re ICSID post hearing.
Currently we have 3 days set aside with a 4th if we need it, there will be no dragging it out on either side once it starts.
The thing with commercial courts (as apposed to criminal) is that theres no "gotcha moments" - i.e. in the process of discovery and approval of single expert witnesses etc, pretty much everything is known prior to the start of proceedings and laid out before the court.
Each side then gets to argue their case on the known facts previously presented before the court (this is why the discovery and subpoena process etc takes so long). Essentially, theres no new evidence / documentation / witnesses brought forward during the proceedings.

My thoughts for what they're worth are that neither side want this to go through to its finality at ICSID - the DRC will already know what's in front of the panel (including all of the likely references that point towards various levels of corruption etc), hence why their trying a last ditch effort to have the case set aside on jurisdictional grounds - they'd be mad if they didn't try it. I imagine the US on the other hand won't want this to surface as the more dirty laundry that's officially aired the harder it is for the US to officially engage (think restrictions around the Magnitsky act as a a start - which covers corruption along with human rights abuses etc).

I reckon we'll get a term sheet with CPs around the concurrent reinstatement of 13359 in its entirety, splitting the north for compo, selling the south to US co. and dropping all of the cases. I reckon we'll get this within the next 3 weeks.

For what its worth Nigel's stopped responding to my calls, which in the past has preceded and announcement - but seriously, I wouldn't read too much into this. We can only hope.

Good luck to everyone - Ive been in this since 2016, its been one helluva ride, but theres some serious quality on this forum that's helped keep me sane. Hopefully see you all on the other side.

Cheers,
Powerage.

 

[Mute22]

Hey Dijon,

Expect 3 months of deliberation re ICSID post hearing.
Currently we have 3 days set aside with a 4th if we need it, there will be no dragging it out on either side once it starts.
The thing with commercial courts (as apposed to criminal) is that theres no "gotcha moments" - i.e. in the process of discovery and approval of single expert witnesses etc, pretty much everything is known prior to the start of proceedings and laid out before the court.
Each side then gets to argue their case on the known facts previously presented before the court (this is why the discovery and subpoena process etc takes so long). Essentially, theres no new evidence / documentation / witnesses brought forward during the proceedings.

My thoughts for what they're worth are that neither side want this to go through to its finality at ICSID - the DRC will already know what's in front of the panel (including all of the likely references that point towards various levels of corruption etc), hence why their trying a last ditch effort to have the case set aside on jurisdictional grounds - they'd be mad if they didn't try it. I imagine the US on the other hand won't want this to surface as the more dirty laundry that's officially aired the harder it is for the US to officially engage (think restrictions around the Magnitsky act as a a start - which covers corruption along with human rights abuses etc).

I reckon we'll get a term sheet with CPs around the concurrent reinstatement of 13359 in its entirety, splitting the north for compo, selling the south to US co. and dropping all of the cases. I reckon we'll get this within the next 3 weeks.

For what its worth Nigel's stopped responding to my calls, which in the past has preceded and announcement - but seriously, I wouldn't read too much into this. We can only hope.

Good luck to everyone - Ive been in this since 2016, its been one helluva ride, but theres some serious quality on this forum that's helped keep me sane. Hopefully see you all on the other side.

Cheers,
Powerage.

See you Easter 2026!

But seriously, appreciate your thoughts and let’s hope it all comes together this way for a clean resolution for all involved. Nothing good for any party if this goes through the courts.

Getting really sick of 2-minute noodles.

 

[Frank]

View attachment 82467
View attachment 82468

https://x.com/MinMinesRDC/status/1912136163248271638

https://x.com/AshleeLaur39941/status/1912148216050753797

https://x.com/brendo726/status/1912233806561702379

 

[Retrobyte]

Hey Dijon,

Expect 3 months of deliberation re ICSID post hearing.

We should have requested Judge Judy be the arbitrator

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/AugustCohen4/status/1912310125718560930

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/suunasolkija/status/1912263653308657786

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/AfricanMiners/status/1912171470576582863

Not a single mention of non-stop corruption by Congolese Govt elites (and their Chinese paymasters).

 

[RHyNO]

View attachment 82504

https://x.com/AfricanMiners/status/1912171470576582863

Not a single mention of non-stop corruption by Congolese Govt elites (and their Chinese paymasters).


View attachment 82505

View attachment 82506

That guardian narrative is truely hilarious, under no circumstances could the country who has shit on its citizens by supporting corruption be accountable for shitting on its citizens by supporting corruption, it’s definitely white Christian males aged 45 and over that ruined everything by inventing math and ethics

 

[Carlos Danger]

In your opinion (and for that matter, everyone else's opinion) when will the ICSID's final verdict be handed down?

Are we looking at over 3 months after the hearing starts?? (The 46 day counter) or is this when the decision is handed down??
Is it possible that to strike a deal, all AVZ is waiting on is the final ICSID decision that gives clear legal ownership of Manono to AVZ.?

To me it makes sense that .multiple deals have been worked on in thr background for many months. The ICSID decision is the certainty that these deals and discussions need to be signed off on.

2027 at the earliest

Hey Dijon,

Expect 3 months of deliberation re ICSID post hearing.
Currently we have 3 days set aside with a 4th if we need it, there will be no dragging it out on either side once it starts.
The thing with commercial courts (as apposed to criminal) is that theres no "gotcha moments" - i.e. in the process of discovery and approval of single expert witnesses etc, pretty much everything is known prior to the start of proceedings and laid out before the court.
Each side then gets to argue their case on the known facts previously presented before the court (this is why the discovery and subpoena process etc takes so long). Essentially, theres no new evidence / documentation / witnesses brought forward during the proceedings.

My thoughts for what they're worth are that neither side want this to go through to its finality at ICSID - the DRC will already know what's in front of the panel (including all of the likely references that point towards various levels of corruption etc), hence why their trying a last ditch effort to have the case set aside on jurisdictional grounds - they'd be mad if they didn't try it. I imagine the US on the other hand won't want this to surface as the more dirty laundry that's officially aired the harder it is for the US to officially engage (think restrictions around the Magnitsky act as a a start - which covers corruption along with human rights abuses etc).

I reckon we'll get a term sheet with CPs around the concurrent reinstatement of 13359 in its entirety, splitting the north for compo, selling the south to US co. and dropping all of the cases. I reckon we'll get this within the next 3 weeks.

For what its worth Nigel's stopped responding to my calls, which in the past has preceded and announcement - but seriously, I wouldn't read too much into this. We can only hope.

Good luck to everyone - Ive been in this since 2016, its been one helluva ride, but theres some serious quality on this forum that's helped keep me sane. Hopefully see you all on the other side.

Cheers,
Powerage.

What are you basing the ‘3 months’ on?

Clearly not the ICSID procedural rules, 9card’s timeframes or Nigel’s comment at the AGM that it will last until late 2026 or early 2027

You smashed me in likes tho lmao

 

[Powerage]

What are you basing the ‘3 months’ on?

Clearly not the ICSID procedural rules, 9card’s timeframes or Nigel’s comment at the AGM that it will last until late 2026 or early 2027

You smashed me in likes tho lmao

3 months deliberation
then court hands down findings
then awards (think of this as sentencing)
then appeals process (inevitable regardless of who's found to be in violation)
then liquidation of awards
If it goes the full process, we'll definitely be into 2026 (but for the record, I don't believe this will be allowed to proceed in June).

Also, (and my apologies if this sounds negative), we must remember that if all goes to plan, we'll be selling at asset level. This means it's highly likely that proceeds will get returned to SHs as non franked dividends after the exploitation of any relevant local tax breaks and an ATO class ruling (this takes another 3 months). The ROC% will be relatively small.

Unfortunately this is something that the majority of SHs won't care about given they are off shore entities). Forget share buy backs etc. The only way around it as i see it is if its a deal with a RIO whereby we take equity (highly unlikely) or a very small chance of relisting with a similar asset purchased from Manono sale funds (again highly unlikely and a ridiculous amount of red tape) - again majority of large SHs are based off shore and happy with cash.

I've just been through a very similar example with LLL / FFX (forced sale to the Chinese at asset level in Mali) and PSC (sold to Chinese at asset level in Zimb). My asshole has only just recovered after the ATO turned it into a butchers bin. (Although for PSC, I was a non resident so didn't pay any tax).

If you have enough in this (and its in your own name) and it pans out how I expect, its probably worth moving to Dubai and playing golf for 2 years in order to get the non tax residency status for Aus...

 

[JNRB]

Who really knows how long these behind-the-scenes discussions have been going on before the media started picking it up.

If things are only now starting to heat up, 46 days is barely any time to untangle this mess, strike a deal with the US, bring in new parties, and somehow get the DRC to sign off on a resolution that compensates shareholders. The DRC is clearly still trying to walk a tightrope between US and Chinese interests — and both sides are dug in, locked in this 'wolf warrior' standoff on every front, unwilling to budge. Meanwhile, we’re the ones stuck in the middle of this geopolitical tug-of-war.

I still believe no deal will be reached before the deadline. They'll likely drag it out until the very last minute, until the final verdict looms and only then will they come to the table.

Long story short, my gut says we’re still months away from a resolution. But damn, I’d be over the moon if it came sooner!

Who really knows how long these behind-the-scenes discussions have been going on before the media started picking it up.

If things are only now starting to heat up, 46 days is barely any time to untangle this mess, strike a deal with the US, bring in new parties, and somehow get the DRC to sign off on a resolution that compensates shareholders. The DRC is clearly still trying to walk a tightrope between US and Chinese interests — and both sides are dug in, locked in this 'wolf warrior' standoff on every front, unwilling to budge. Meanwhile, we’re the ones stuck in the middle of this geopolitical tug-of-war.

I still believe no deal will be reached before the deadline. They'll likely drag it out until the very last minute, until the final verdict looms and only then will they come to the table.

Long story short, my gut says we’re still months away from a resolution. But damn, I’d be over the moon if it came sooner!

It's hard to know but I think there are clues.

- we know Kobold was sniffing around last year
- one we don't have to guess is when the DRC sent their 'minerals for security' 9ffer to the US
- Boulos was promoted to grand-poobah of African relations right before making a trip to DRC. He didn't go on a fact-finding mission, he's a closer there to work on getting a deal done.

These are all events with known dates that work well enough to set up an agreement prior to arbitration

 

[Stockinvesting]

It's hard to know but I think there are clues.

- we know Kobold was sniffing around last year
- one we don't have to guess is when the DRC sent their 'minerals for security' 9ffer to the US
- Boulos was promoted to grand-poobah of African relations right before making a trip to DRC. He didn't go on a fact-finding mission, he's a closer there to work on getting a deal done.

These are all events with known dates that work well enough to set up an agreement prior to arbitration

Well laid out mate. Agreed.
FWIW, I can't see the USA taking their time on this.

Felix needs a fix. Fast. We all know he approached THEM , not the other way around.

He wants a quick fix and is prepared to sell the family jewels (Manono) to get it. WANT THIS. They (Trump) will not like playing 2nd fiddle to anyone, Kobold, Arabs, Europe and definitely NOT the Chinese.

I really believe a deal is not to far away.

GLTAH.

 

[Hemicuda]

3 months deliberation
then court hands down findings
then awards (think of this as sentencing)
then appeals process (inevitable regardless of who's found to be in violation)
then liquidation of awards
If it goes the full process, we'll definitely be into 2026 (but for the record, I don't believe this will be allowed to proceed in June).

Also, (and my apologies if this sounds negative), we must remember that if all goes to plan, we'll be selling at asset level. This means it's highly likely that proceeds will get returned to SHs as non franked dividends after the exploitation of any relevant local tax breaks and an ATO class ruling (this takes another 3 months).

Unfortunately this is something that the majority of SHs won't care about given they are off shore entities). Forget share buy backs etc. The only way around it as i see it is if its a deal with a RIO whereby we take equity (highly unlikely) or a very small chance of relisting with a similar asset purchased from Manono sale funds (again highly unlikely and a ridiculous amount of red tape) - again majority of large SHs are based off shore and happy with cash.

I've just been through a very similar example with LLL / FFX (forced sale to the Chinese at asset level in Mali) and PSC (sold to Chinese at asset level in Zimb). My asshole has only just recovered after the ATO turned it into a butchers bin. (Although for PSC, I was a non resident so didn't pay any tax).

If you have enough in this (and its in your own name) and it pans out how I expect, its probably worth moving to Dubai and playing golf for 2 years...

Will it feel better or worse? after all this time of being fucked by the DRC and Chinese cunts, to turn around be proper fuckd by ATO,,, something to
Look fwd to,,,,

 

[Doc]

Well laid out mate. Agreed.
FWIW, I can't see the USA taking their time on this.

Felix needs a fix. Fast. We all know he approached THEM , not the other way around.

He wants a quick fix and is prepared to sell the family jewels (Manono) to get it. WANT THIS. They (Trump) will not like playing 2nd fiddle to anyone, Kobold, Arabs, Europe and definitely NOT the Chinese.

I really believe a deal is not to far away.

GLTAH.

Only ones that don’t want a quick resolution are the lawyers, they making a killing ( I will add DLA Piper have been great for AVZ but will still make bank out if it )

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/JAG80059733/status/1912313201305481518

 

[Frank]

https://x.com/HC_Haplo/status/1912103320048857203

China frets about its dependence on Africa’s resources as US muscles in​

China has heavily invested to secure raw materials from African nations, but US accusations over those deals pose new risks​

A leading Chinese industry association has warned the country risks becoming too dependent on raw materials from individual nations in Africa, as the continent becomes a battleground in an intensifying global tussle for resources.

China’s vast manufacturing sector is heavily reliant on African countries to supply several crucial materials, with Guinea emerging as a dominant supplier of bauxite – an aluminium ore that is essential to make everything from cars to electronics.

Ge Honglin, head of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said this dependence could become a strategic vulnerability during a visit to the West African nation on Saturday, as he called for greater efforts to secure the bauxite supply chain.

“Internationally, greater attention must be paid to the risks of overconcentration in certain countries, ensuring safer development and acquisition of overseas resources,” Ge said, according to an article posted on the association’s website.

China’s imports of bauxite soared to 141.6 million tonnes in 2023, with the country relying on imports for 86.1 per cent of its supplies of the ore, according to a research note published by Dongxing Securities last year.

And Guinea provided most those imports.

China’s bauxite imports from the West African country skyrocketed from 11.94 million tonnes in 2016 to 99.26 million tonnes in 2023, as Chinese industrial firms invested heavily in the nation.

Indonesia’s bauxite export ban, which came into force two years ago, has made China even more reliant on Guinea’s mines.

“The high concentration of bauxite imports in specific regions means that the supply from mining sources is increasingly vulnerable to potential event-driven risks,” said Dongxing Securities analyst Zhang Tianfeng in the report.

Meanwhile, China’s aggressive pursuit of critical minerals across Africa has alarmed Washington and sparked a global rare metals race on the continent.

On Monday, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent accused China of gaining foreign mining rights through “rapacious deals” in Latin America and Africa, and he vowed to prevent that during an interview with Bloomberg TV.

The United States and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have been negotiating a “multibillion” deal since early April that would trade access to minerals in exchange for security, according to US President Donald Trump’s top Africa envoy.

The DRC is the leading global producer of cobalt, a key mineral in the production of lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles and smartphones. The country also holds significant reserves of gold, diamonds and copper.

China already has large interests in DRC cobalt and copper mines, with Chinese state-owned creditors approving 19 loan commitments worth about US$12.85 billion for related mining projects in the country between 2000 and 2021.

Why China is worried about its growing reliance on Africa’s resources

China has heavily invested to secure raw materials from African nations, but US accusations over those deals pose new risks.

sc.mp

 

[whales]

Hey Dijon,

Expect 3 months of deliberation re ICSID post hearing.
Currently we have 3 days set aside with a 4th if we need it, there will be no dragging it out on either side once it starts.
The thing with commercial courts (as apposed to criminal) is that theres no "gotcha moments" - i.e. in the process of discovery and approval of single expert witnesses etc, pretty much everything is known prior to the start of proceedings and laid out before the court.
Each side then gets to argue their case on the known facts previously presented before the court (this is why the discovery and subpoena process etc takes so long). Essentially, theres no new evidence / documentation / witnesses brought forward during the proceedings.

My thoughts for what they're worth are that neither side want this to go through to its finality at ICSID - the DRC will already know what's in front of the panel (including all of the likely references that point towards various levels of corruption etc), hence why their trying a last ditch effort to have the case set aside on jurisdictional grounds - they'd be mad if they didn't try it. I imagine the US on the other hand won't want this to surface as the more dirty laundry that's officially aired the harder it is for the US to officially engage (think restrictions around the Magnitsky act as a a start - which covers corruption along with human rights abuses etc).

I reckon we'll get a term sheet with CPs around the concurrent reinstatement of 13359 in its entirety, splitting the north for compo, selling the south to US co. and dropping all of the cases. I reckon we'll get this within the next 3 weeks.

For what its worth Nigel's stopped responding to my calls, which in the past has preceded and announcement - but seriously, I wouldn't read too much into this. We can only hope.

Good luck to everyone - Ive been in this since 2016, its been one helluva ride, but theres some serious quality on this forum that's helped keep me sane. Hopefully see you all on the other side.

Cheers,
Powerage.

Splitting the North for Compo ?
I am hoping the US tells DRC if you want protection for minerals that the North must be returned to Dathcom / AVZ.as Comminiere /Zijin have no legal right.
Highly unlikely that the corruption shown by Zijin that they will seek ICC.
Trump will certainly show no compensation towards China.

How can it be sold to Zijin again when they Comminiere / Zijin think they can and are proceeding to mine it.
Need a Presidential decree from Felix to suspend Zijin and Comminiere from Manono.