AVZ Discussion 2022

[Hodlandwin69]

Royalties doesn't sound too bad tbh

 

[Winenut]

This could work but depends on what the royalty is. Will take 18 months to 2 years for the mine to begin operations but when operating imagine a gross royalty paid quarterly of 15c per share for 30 years..

Assume share holding of 500,000 x $0.675 = $337,500 up front cash.
Then when the royalties start (again depends on what the royalties are)

500,000 x 0.15 = $75,000 (quarterly?) x 30 years = 9 million

Also leaves AVZ to begin new projects, preferably in Australia.

Its fun to think about but $12 a share cash is a pipe dream.

Not sure where you get numbers like that

15c royalty per share every quarter is no more in the realms of possibility than $20 per share up front with tax breaks

 

[aanti.dumb]

Not sure where you get numbers like that

15c royalty per share every quarter is no more in the realms of possibility than $20 per share up front with tax breaks

What's a more realistic royalty in your opinion?

 

[Winenut]

Let's not confuse Royalties with Dividends peeps........just sayin'

edit (not directed at you there a.d)

 

[RHyNO]

how does this ding dong get his numbers! The only number in here with absolutely no supporting evidence. Who is putting these details to the media? The lazy pricks who want to pay us SQUAT for our Li. Dream on rio. All time highs at least!!

 

[Hodlandwin69]

Let's not confuse Royalties with Dividends peeps........just sayin'

edit (not directed at you there a.d)

What's the practical difference?

 

[aanti.dumb]

Let's not confuse Royalties with Dividends peeps........just sayin'

I agree, just easier for me to wrap by head around.

 

[Winenut]

What's a more realistic royalty in your opinion?

Good question and you've made me stop to ponder my intitial reaction

The calculation method needs to be considered

Fixed per unit of output, % of revenue, % of net return

Really haven't run the numbers so I think your question is very valid and yeah....I'm not quite sure of the answer

Good point for further discussion and research

 

[Winenut]

What's the practical difference?

Franking credits....

EDIT. Possibly.....might depend who or what entity receives the royalty and how it is treated as income in the hands of the recipient

 

[Hodlandwin69]

What is concerning is "if all goes well AVZ could on-sell the Manono interest for UP TO 1.5BILLION"
Up to?!?!
Wtaf

 

[BRICK]

RIO can take that and fk off.
How does such a number even leak when clearly must be a joke

Jeeze feel like we are in a gangbang.

Getting fucked by everyone, even our own countrymen.

Just goes to show the significance of the resource.

 

[Winenut]

So now I'm down a rabbit hole on Royalties thanks to RIO and the Australian and a US Special Envoy

 

[Hodlandwin69]

So now I'm down a rabbit hole on Royalties

Please share your wisdom with us when you are done and what you think would be a reasonable estimate of royalties

 

[BRICK]

Jeeze feel like we are in a gangbang.

Getting fucked by everyone, even our own countrymen.

Just goes to show the significance of the resource.

Look actually the real question is,

Will we reach 3000 pages of thread before a deal is cut?

 

[Hodlandwin69]

This also contradicts Graeme's LinkedIn post

 

[Winenut]

What is concerning is "if all goes well AVZ could on-sell the Manono interest for UP TO 1.5BILLION"
Up to?!?!
Wtaf

Totally agree

That's just a seriously fucked up and wrong and broken number to have published IMO

 

[Mute22]

The fact the article has no source is very telling.

This could just be an outcome the journalist came to themselves on the back of a napkin.

Most likely, RIO is leaking lowball offers to build a narrative, to what end? It's all part of the games being played to lower expectations.

The FUD agents are going to have a field day.

 

[BRICK]

This is about as low-balled as a 90 year olds low balls.

 

[Winenut]

Please share your wisdom with us when you are done and what you think would be a reasonable estimate of royalties

Happy to share something but not sure I'd go so far as to call it wisdom

 

[Carlos Danger]

AVZ and KoBold representatives want to nail down a deal on the future of the southern portion of the Manono deposit from the talks starting on Tuesday. If all goes well, AVZ could on-sell the Manono interest for up to $US1.5bn ($2.38bn) plus a royalty. But there is no assurance of any outcome, favourable or otherwise.

$0.675 AUD per share + royalties.

Sounds like we get royally screwed, I really hope that's not true. I would rather go to court.

Is this RIO buttering up a lowball offer?

Maybe this is what RIO has put forward, but I really hope NF isn't entertaining this.

0.47c after tax

Surely 'AVZ representatives' aren't considering this as it is well below Nigel's minimum valuation of $2.5b USD at the AGM

That isn't a commercial enough offer to win the required shareholder vote even with a royalty imo