AVZ Discussion 2022

[Schnitzelfresser]

For the record: a deal should theoretically be reached by 09.02. (?) so that neither party pays the fees for the arbitration court unnecessarily. Then everything could happen very quickly.

In fact, everyone only saves face if Zijin gets something from the North, we get money or other compensation in return. Cominiere gets to keep the play money for drugs and hookers, the charges are dropped, the DRC is thanked for the great cooperation. We and CATH/CATL get the South. Hydropower plant is shared.

Something similar has already been written.

 

[Winenut]

I reckon the international arbitration fees are chicken feed in relation to the numbers we are looking at with regard to the bigger picture of Manono

 

[JNRB]

For the record: a deal should theoretically be reached by 09.02. (?) so that neither party pays the fees for the arbitration court unnecessarily. Then everything could happen very quickly.

In fact, everyone only saves face if Zijin gets something from the North, we get money or other compensation in return. Cominiere gets to keep the play money for drugs and hookers, the charges are dropped, the DRC is thanked for the great cooperation. We and CATH/CATL get the South. Hydropower plant is shared.

Something similar has already been written.

Fortunately, we don't need a solution where everyone saves face.

Zijin / Cominiere / Celestin can fight amongst themselves as to who gets thrown under the bus.

 

[RHyNO]

I tell ya if they sort this, and relist, I’m going to hold until I can put some of this lithium into my home Tesla bot. If Nigel gets an outcome here it’s testament to his ability to lead a project in Africa.

 

[tolate]

Agree, i am pretty sure the relationship with AVZ / CATH has been strained in the past, as other posters have mentioned Cath can be a bit of a turn coat ........they voted for MAGA 2 yrs ago plus i am sure prior to that i remember somewhere Pei was meant to catch up with Nigel for a important meeting, yet cancelled and conducted a private meeting with Cong instead.

Once bitten twice shy needs to be the approach.

Maybe a PURE case of let the CHINESE deal with the CHINESE...!!
CATH deal with ZIJIN and the DRC
Cath is in the BOX seat...imo
But if AVZ, is granted a M L that is a breath of AIR...!

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

So only one question remains:
View attachment 75855

I hear our pay day is imminent.

 

[Xerof]

@Carlos Danger

WRT when GLH came into the picture, I see that it first gets a mention in ICSID proceedings around November 2023. IMO, this might give a bit of a clue as to when the behind-the-scenes negotiations may have commenced with CATH, i.e. after the failed Board shit fight, and with Locke funding DD etc having commenced

So perhaps the transfer to GLH was an early step to avoid needing CNT's approval of the direct transfer to CATH, and was part of an early framework

I'm fairly certain this JV agreement etc has been percolating for quite some time, and isn't simply a reaction to the confirmation of Locke funding

 

[Mute22]

imminent.

 

[Dijon101]

So only one question remains:
View attachment 75855

 

[Flexi]

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[Xerof]

I hear our pay day is imminent.

I get paid every second Tuesday, so tomorrow?

 

[blu]

Question for SME'S...I'm sure NF and Board want to return maximum value to SH once this shit show has concluded. What is the most likely pathway / structure for that? I'd rather not relist if it means the same cunts that shorted us way back at the start get another opportunity to do so again.

 

[Frank]

x.com

x.com

x.com

x.com

 

[Xerof]

@blu

If you look at the recent announcement, the official line is we are committed to developing Manono, repeated in several paragraphs.

I doubt they would ever stray from that narrative, and IMO, it's extremely important that they now push very hard in the Courts to ensure they squeeze out any avenues for anything but attaining a ML and a pathway to mining.

So my current expectation is a re-list, like it or not

Anything else needs to be a complete surprise

 

[blu]

@blu

If you look at the recent announcement, the official line is we are committed to developing Manono, repeated in several paragraphs.

I doubt they would ever stray from that narrative, and IMO, it's extremely important that they now push very hard in the Courts to ensure they squeeze out any avenues for anything but attaining a ML and a pathway to mining.

So my current expectation is a re-list, like it or not

Anything else needs to be a complete surprise

Good point, thanks

 

[cruiser51]

@blu

If you look at the recent announcement, the official line is we are committed to developing Manono, repeated in several paragraphs.

I doubt they would ever stray from that narrative, and IMO, it's extremely important that they now push very hard in the Courts to ensure they squeeze out any avenues for anything but attaining a ML and a pathway to mining.

So my current expectation is a re-list, like it or not

Anything else needs to be a complete surprise

That was the general tone during the last AGM from the BOD.

Having people say now 'Sell the show', is not what the BOD said.
It is what people say, because they have a nose full off the DRC's carry on and the BS created by Zijin, in an attempt to steal something in bright daylight.

However saying now sell the whole shit and caboodle is not the smartest thing to do.
Allow the BOD to do their thing.
They know much better than we know what is going on and they only will reveal what is considered smart to be revealed, by them and their legal advisors.

Having an early GT might help to calm the nerves.

 

[Xerof]

Exactly

 

[Panther22]

Pay the fees. Both sides if necessary.
Don't need any reasons or excuses for delays.
We are now finally on a roll.

 

[Remark]

Pay the fees. Both sides if necessary.
Don't need any reasons or excuses for delays.
We are now finally on a roll.

Unfortunately it seems to be a spring roll

 

[grassseeds]

Like most posters, I welcome the potential for a deal being done and this has the potential for AVZ to get off the canvas. AVZ has continued to find that rarely will any non Chinese entity invest in the DRC. This deal ( in whatever guise it is finalised ) will cement Chinese control of Manono and also strongly influence the world Lithium market. I suspect that when the project is operational, and with the probable large output, this will keep the price of Lithium under constant pressure. The Chinese Company's needs for Lithium material will be met by the availability of this major resource, and this will help to restrict the buying price of Lithium. You only need to see what has happened in Indonesia with Chinese control of Nickel. Was Zijin's action of being the Bad Cop used to allow Cath to be the Good Cop to ensure control of Manono?

It is now a bit clearer why the Locke deal took so long. The Cath deal was also running in parallel for some of the time.

I suspect that Cath has nearly all the ducks lined up with all groups involved, and we are only waiting on the finer details to be signed off by each party before the Chinese Govt. gives the seal of approval. This must have been a massive effort, as the groups involved include DRC Govt, Cominiere, Dathomir, Zijin, AVZ, Cath and the Chinese Govt. Cath's size, reputation, and ability to conclude deals were some of the ingredients that AVZ lacked.

I have a few concerns, and we can only hope that our Board can get some success in protecting the Company and Shareholders. AVZ does not have a lot of clout or big brother support. Shareholders must recognise that Cath will not be a benevolent supporter of shareholders.

The Cath deal announcement by AVZ makes no comment about the legal issues. Interestingly, neither party has paid the fees to progress the cases. AVZ indicated that they would pay, but we have no confirmation of this action. Don't forget we were told that the deal with Locke was finalised but we had no confirmation of any signing. Cath proposes to provide funds at the end of January. Is this too late? Is termination of legal action part of the Cath deal? What happens if the deal falls over? I doubt that AVZ will get any substantial funds from the judgements made to date, but AVZ may be able to use these legal awards as bargaining chips.

The price Cath pays for their 30.5% of the total project is just under $300 million. How were these figures worked out? Is it as a result of other deals? With AVZ being left with 29.5% ( based on the initial 60% holding ) this should highlight to shareholders that AVZ's value is nowhere near some of the dreams postulated by a few.

Yes, if the Dathomir deal is sorted, AVZ can go to 44.5% of the project. I believe Cath is the only group that can get this finalised. AVZ requires this to be fixed to cancel the DRC Court's rulings of penalties against AVZ, and to eliminate the action against Graeme Johnston. Funds held in escrow how will this be fixed? Will Dathomir be paid any extra?

Regarding Cominiere, is it possible to cancel previous deals regarding AVZ's ROFR. If AVZ can gain a minimum of 6% of Cominiere's original 25%, and agreement is made that payment is offset by the approx $60 million legal costs awarded against Cominiere, this could lift AVZ's share to 51%. Zijin to retain the other 9% (?) and Cominiere pass on the 10% to DRC Govt.
Shareholding then Cath 30.5%, AVZ 50.5%, Zijin 9 % and DRC Govt 10%. Cath may dangle the Lithium Hydroxide or other material upgrading to smooth the path with DRC Govt.
I believe that this is highly improbable. Zijin will counter any proposals with details of what they have spent on payments to Cominiere and others, plus drilling costs etc on Manono and Hydro Power upgrade costs.

A further concern is what amount of PR13359 will AVZ/Cath gain. I doubt it will be the total amount, but hope that AVZ's original boundaries which include the camp and water access are gained as a minimum. If Zijin/Cominiere retain any amount of 13359 they could build an extremely large plant and the output could provide similar results to what has occurred in the Nickel market.

The other issue is ownership/access/operational items for any Manono Lithium output.

Who owns/controls/builds/operates/markets output. Will any of these be used as bargaining chips?
1. Hydro Power, 2.Water, 3. Transport 4. Tin etc

Like the majority of shareholders, I have NFI about what is happening with these negotiations. The above only covers part of the possible options, but it is an attempt to alert shareholders of the complexity as I see it that the Board is facing.

I have made these comments as I felt they needed to be aired, as it may come to pass that as shareholders we have to vote on an agreement.

These comments are not financial advice but a general opinion of the current situation as I see it.