Some thoughts, based on my reading/understanding mainly from this thread
. Please pull me up where I’m wrong, thanks.
Supposedly Zijin has now had control of the Manono asset since 2022, yet have made next to no progress in developing the mine or associated infrastructure. Some signage and a shonky attempt at a piddling dam, but no substantial mining activity, road works etc
So, what is holding things up? If they were serious and sure of their position surely they would moved ahead.
1. Legal challenges over their tenure of the Manono asset/s and protracted international legal proceedings – not a conducive investment environment for a major funding commitment.
2. Even for a western mining company the funding requirement to develop Manono and associated infrastructure is absolutely massive – way beyond the capacity of DRC and Zijin. Maybe even Zijin would need to find a cashed up Chinese/western partner?
3. The economics to open a new spod mine at this time is very marginal – international price of lithium has been going down for several years due to the decreased sales/demand, lower/slower EV sales etc Commercial viability atm may not support start up? In Australia spod mines have been mothballed.
4. The Chinese economy has been in dire straights since Covid (housing crash, high unemployment, shortage of private and public funds etc) and they are finding it increasingly difficult to assemble/release funds for major capital investments domestically/foreign. Many projects in China have been mothballed (I'm here and I can see them).
5. Furthermore, the Chinese Government and SOEs are increasingly disinclined to fund major foreign capital investments (under their Belt & Road strategy) – they have been burnt by several poor Asian, African S. American countries (similar to DRC) that have been defaulting on their loan repayments.
Overall the Chinese investment environment is very negative atm.
This all leads me to think that Nigel has some wriggle room now to push even harder and score some points against Zijin with Félix/Prime Minister. Félix must be getting nervous and unhappy holding the can for these thankless Chinese thieves.
Nigel should aggressively raise the following:
A. The Chinese have done nothing for 2 ½ years (no drilling, testing, planning etc), wasting everyones’ time, and must now show their cards and put-up (show the colour of their money) or fuck-off, but not sit on the can.
B. If action is taken to return the ownership to AVZ Nigel can undertake to put all legal proceedings on hold and to progress AVZs investment/mining plans asap.
C If it drags out too long Félix may get caught holding the baby (not just the can) when the music eventually stops. Slowly, bit by bit the arrangements will crumble as key DRC people get taken to court or f/o overseas.
That US$70Mil that Zijin paid to obtain Manono is a side show for AVZ and is really only a concern to the DRC/Zijin – I suspect that the DRC would be just as happy to take the Zijin money and fuck them around also lol.
