AVZ Discussion 2022

[Frank]

*Someone needs to remind a certain someone ( Felix the Cat ) that it's not a "Win-Win" if you "Lose-Lose" when it comes to ICC & ICSID, as

The Lobito Corridor, a Route to African Development?​

In this article, Veronica Bolton Smith makes the case that the participating countries in the Lobito Corridor need to do more to become part of the $60 billion Electric Vehicle (EV) battery supply chain.

The stakes are high for Africa as the EV battery market is anticipated to more than double in size to $141.6 billion by 2032, according to Apollo Research.

A primary goal of the Lobito Corridor initiative is to improve and expand the existing railway and supporting infrastructure to allow efficient flows of critical raw materials from mines in Zambia and the DRC to Angola’s port city of Lobito.

Presently, the minerals mainly travel eastward via trucks towards ports in South Africa, Tanzania, and Mozambique.

Poor road infrastructure leads to delays and traffic jams, and once at port further delays are not uncommon due to them being overwhelmed, mismanaged, or lacking in capacity.

The Lobito Corridor establishes a westward path for the minerals providing optionality to producers and easier access to markets in the United States and Europe.

The United States, the EU Commission, the African Development Bank, and the African Finance Corporation have all pledged significant funds towards the project.

The Lobito Corridor is an ambitious public-private-partnership to develop infrastructure linking the copper and cobalt mines of Zambia to key markets in Europe and the United States.

Made possible through multi-stakeholder agreements, the venture has been hailed by the governments of Zambia, the DRC and Angola as crucial for future generations and economic growth.

Alongside the fanfare and big dreams, however, it is important to understand where the greatest value of the Corridor may lie, who stands to benefit the most, and how impact might be measured against expectations.

What is the Lobito Corridor?​

Officially termed the Lobito Atlantic Railway Corridor, this is an agreement between Zambia, the DRC and Angola, and a consortium of three companies (Trafigura, Mota-Engil and Vecturis) to allow for the construction of a railway and all its support infrastructure, so as to transport materials from the mines in Central Africa to a point as close as possible to the markets in the USA and Europe.

This point is the Angolan port city of Lobito.

The Corridor will be used as the route to transport critical raw materials (CRMs), strategic minerals and products of the EV battery value chain.

As demand for CRMs increases, EU and US markets need to access these quicker, more reliably and competitively.

An Atlantic port significantly shortcuts the current Indian Ocean ports of Beira, Dar-es-Salaam and Durban.

Currently trucks transport these materials, placing shipments at risk of hijacking, border delays, capricious political delays and under-performing unloading at overwhelmed ports.

The railway, which exists historically and has already completed a trial journey, will still require further development.

What are the planned benefits?​

While it primarily seeks to deliver critical minerals to western markets, the knock-on effect within the countries of the DRC, Zambia and Angola will foreseeably be increased employment in the region and infrastructure improvements.

At the G20 meeting in September 2023, both the US and EU announced a feasibility study on activating the corridor.

An initial load of over 1000 tons of copper from Ivanhoe Mines was delivered along the railway in December 2023.

copperbeltkatangamining.com

 

[Frank]

*Fyi, In other News i see where,

Congo’s $7 billion infrastructure deal with China will depend on copper prices​

Around $7 billion of infrastructure investments in the Democratic Republic of Congo by Chinese companies in a revised minerals deal will largely depend on copper prices remaining high, details of the agreement published on Friday show.

The government of President Felix Tshisekedi pushed for a review of the 2008 infrastructure for minerals deal with Sinohydro Corp and China Railway Group to bring more benefits for Congo, the world’s biggest cobalt producer.

They signed an agreement in March.

The parties agreed to maintain the current structure of their Sicomines copper and cobalt joint venture shareholding, 68% of which is held by the Chinese partners, and 32% by Congo state miner Gecamines.

The previously unpublished details of the agreement set a number of conditions for the $7 billion investment, which will include the construction of roads in a country that is largely devoid of infrastructure.

The infrastructure finance will come from Sicomines’ profits, which would also be used to reimburse loans from the Chinese companies via Chinese banks to Congo on behalf of Sicomines.

Under the previous version of the agreement, 65% of the profits were to be used to repay these loans.

The parties agreed that $324 million will be invested in mostly road infrastructure every year from 2024 until 2040, but this is conditional on copper prices remaining above $8,000 a metric ton.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was trading around $9,855 a metric ton on Friday, after surging to a two-year peak of $10,208 on Tuesday.

“If the price of copper rises by at least 50% from $8,000 a ton, 30% of the additional profits made under these conditions will be devoted to financing additional infrastructure”, the detailed agreement published on a government website showed.

“The parties understand and accept that Sicomines will cease to finance infrastructure projects in the event that the price of copper falls to $5,200 per tonne or less.”

According to the agreement, Sicomines will continue to be exempted from paying taxes until 2040, a situation widely criticized by Congolese and international civil society organizations, that say the decision was a major loss of revenue for the state.

Congo, also the world’s third-largest copper producer and holds significant deposits of lithium, tin and gold among other minerals, has undertaken to publish all mining contracts as part of a three-year program with the International Monetary Fund.

An IMF staff mission is underway in the country until May 8 to assess the sixth and final review of this program.

mining.com

 

[BEISHA]

*Someone needs to remind a certain someone ( Felix the Cat ) that it's not a "Win-Win" if you "Lose-Lose" when it comes to ICC & ICSID, as

The Lobito Corridor, a Route to African Development?​

In this article, Veronica Bolton Smith makes the case that the participating countries in the Lobito Corridor need to do more to become part of the $60 billion Electric Vehicle (EV) battery supply chain.

The stakes are high for Africa as the EV battery market is anticipated to more than double in size to $141.6 billion by 2032, according to Apollo Research.

A primary goal of the Lobito Corridor initiative is to improve and expand the existing railway and supporting infrastructure to allow efficient flows of critical raw materials from mines in Zambia and the DRC to Angola’s port city of Lobito.

Presently, the minerals mainly travel eastward via trucks towards ports in South Africa, Tanzania, and Mozambique.

Poor road infrastructure leads to delays and traffic jams, and once at port further delays are not uncommon due to them being overwhelmed, mismanaged, or lacking in capacity.

The Lobito Corridor establishes a westward path for the minerals providing optionality to producers and easier access to markets in the United States and Europe.

The United States, the EU Commission, the African Development Bank, and the African Finance Corporation have all pledged significant funds towards the project.

The Lobito Corridor is an ambitious public-private-partnership to develop infrastructure linking the copper and cobalt mines of Zambia to key markets in Europe and the United States.

Made possible through multi-stakeholder agreements, the venture has been hailed by the governments of Zambia, the DRC and Angola as crucial for future generations and economic growth.

Alongside the fanfare and big dreams, however, it is important to understand where the greatest value of the Corridor may lie, who stands to benefit the most, and how impact might be measured against expectations.

What is the Lobito Corridor?​

Officially termed the Lobito Atlantic Railway Corridor, this is an agreement between Zambia, the DRC and Angola, and a consortium of three companies (Trafigura, Mota-Engil and Vecturis) to allow for the construction of a railway and all its support infrastructure, so as to transport materials from the mines in Central Africa to a point as close as possible to the markets in the USA and Europe.

This point is the Angolan port city of Lobito.

The Corridor will be used as the route to transport critical raw materials (CRMs), strategic minerals and products of the EV battery value chain.

As demand for CRMs increases, EU and US markets need to access these quicker, more reliably and competitively.

An Atlantic port significantly shortcuts the current Indian Ocean ports of Beira, Dar-es-Salaam and Durban.

Currently trucks transport these materials, placing shipments at risk of hijacking, border delays, capricious political delays and under-performing unloading at overwhelmed ports.

The railway, which exists historically and has already completed a trial journey, will still require further development.

What are the planned benefits?​

While it primarily seeks to deliver critical minerals to western markets, the knock-on effect within the countries of the DRC, Zambia and Angola will foreseeably be increased employment in the region and infrastructure improvements.

At the G20 meeting in September 2023, both the US and EU announced a feasibility study on activating the corridor.

An initial load of over 1000 tons of copper from Ivanhoe Mines was delivered along the railway in December 2023.

copperbeltkatangamining.com


View attachment 62182

Well, as i see it , the Lobito corridor intitiave by the US is the key bargaining chip in either AVZ getting its ML or achieving a TO by a large US coy, possibly Albermarle (thus avoiding the laborious ICC / ICSID route) , which i reckon would have the FIRBs blessing. ( aka US / Aust critical mineral pact )

Thats the angle the west should be approaching regards to that initiative....." You want Lobito corridor ? Release Manono to its rightful owners, or allow us to TO and payout AVZ long term suffering shareholders who funded the discovery / development "

You can imagine that Zambia and Angola would heap some pressure on FT to make that deal happen to enable Africa as a whole to benefit for the long term future

But what will be the reality ?


imo

 

[Lucas Don Velor]

View attachment 62194

View attachment 62195

View attachment 62196

Well, as i see it , the Lobito corridor intitiave by the US is the key bargaining chip in either AVZ getting its ML or achieving a TO by a large US coy, possibly Albermarle (thus avoiding the laborious ICC / ICSID route) , which i reckon would have the FIRBs blessing. ( aka US / Aust critical mineral pact )

Thats the angle the west should be approaching regards to that initiative....." You want Lobito corridor ? Release Manono to its rightful owners, or allow us to TO and payout AVZ long term suffering shareholders who funded the discovery / development "

You can imagine that Zambia and Angola would heap some pressure on FT to make that deal happen to enable Africa as a whole to benefit for the long term future

View attachment 62197

But what will be the reality ?


imo

Beisha,

I share this sentiment... Both China and US/EU are pitching $1-2B+ railway deals to Africa/DRC... I can't help but think that both deals will be honoured (i.e. win-win) after reading AVZs latest announcement regarding "partial or complete disposal"...

U.S. and China Back Competing Rail Corridors to Zambia's Copper Belt

The U.S government has given new commitments in the development of the Lobito Corridor, which is proposed as a critical trade route to facilitate mov...

maritime-executive.com

 

[BEISHA]

*Fyi, In other News i see where,

Congo’s $7 billion infrastructure deal with China will depend on copper prices​

Around $7 billion of infrastructure investments in the Democratic Republic of Congo by Chinese companies in a revised minerals deal will largely depend on copper prices remaining high, details of the agreement published on Friday show.

The government of President Felix Tshisekedi pushed for a review of the 2008 infrastructure for minerals deal with Sinohydro Corp and China Railway Group to bring more benefits for Congo, the world’s biggest cobalt producer.

They signed an agreement in March.

The parties agreed to maintain the current structure of their Sicomines copper and cobalt joint venture shareholding, 68% of which is held by the Chinese partners, and 32% by Congo state miner Gecamines.

The previously unpublished details of the agreement set a number of conditions for the $7 billion investment, which will include the construction of roads in a country that is largely devoid of infrastructure.

The infrastructure finance will come from Sicomines’ profits, which would also be used to reimburse loans from the Chinese companies via Chinese banks to Congo on behalf of Sicomines.

Under the previous version of the agreement, 65% of the profits were to be used to repay these loans.

The parties agreed that $324 million will be invested in mostly road infrastructure every year from 2024 until 2040, but this is conditional on copper prices remaining above $8,000 a metric ton.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was trading around $9,855 a metric ton on Friday, after surging to a two-year peak of $10,208 on Tuesday.

“If the price of copper rises by at least 50% from $8,000 a ton, 30% of the additional profits made under these conditions will be devoted to financing additional infrastructure”, the detailed agreement published on a government website showed.

“The parties understand and accept that Sicomines will cease to finance infrastructure projects in the event that the price of copper falls to $5,200 per tonne or less.”

According to the agreement, Sicomines will continue to be exempted from paying taxes until 2040, a situation widely criticized by Congolese and international civil society organizations, that say the decision was a major loss of revenue for the state.

Congo, also the world’s third-largest copper producer and holds significant deposits of lithium, tin and gold among other minerals, has undertaken to publish all mining contracts as part of a three-year program with the International Monetary Fund.

An IMF staff mission is underway in the country until May 8 to assess the sixth and final review of this program.

mining.com

View attachment 62188

View attachment 62189

Yeah, disbelief is the operative word there Frank, FT happy to review 2008 infrastructure deal, but not prepared to review the Manono corruption
file.......

 

[BEISHA]

Beisha,

I share this sentiment... Both China and US/EU are pitching $1-2B+ railway deals to Africa/DRC... I can't help but think that both deals will be honoured (i.e. win-win) after reading AVZs latest announcement regarding "partial or complete disposal"...

U.S. and China Back Competing Rail Corridors to Zambia's Copper Belt

The U.S government has given new commitments in the development of the Lobito Corridor, which is proposed as a critical trade route to facilitate mov...

maritime-executive.com

We can only hope Lucas.........

 

[Frank]

 

[BEISHA]

View attachment 62201

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View attachment 62208

View attachment 62209

Youre killing me Frank, so FT upset that the west is " lecturing ", but happy for Russia / China to loot ?

 

[Carlos Danger]

“The surviving legal effect of the Dathcom waiver not so much imo”

There are stipulations in contracts that say if one party (DRC) doesn’t honour their agreement, the contract is null and void. If that happened to be the case in this instance, then ‘null and void’ means it was never legally waived, never relinquished and never ceded.

I guess DLA are the only ones that currently know and they appear to be sticking to the line that if there was an agreement, the DRC didn’t honour their side

I hope you’re right. But I just don’t think that is how the ICSID will see it if it gets that far. Hopefully we never need to find out what their decision would be and an alternative outcome can be reached long before then. Dathcom were under no obligation to file the waiver as I have said numerous times. They should have fought it then and there rather than agreeing to the split even if under false pretences. If there was a written contract rather than just a waiver submission this surely would have been all over a long time ago.

If the MoM had of mentioned Dathcom being tricked or a contract dispute in 00032 then it would be an obvious slam dunk case. But she clearly doesn’t and instead cites Cominiere’s letter from December 2022 that blames AVZ ignoring the minority shareholders opinion. That is the basis of AVZ’s current claim to Dathcom having the entirety of PR13359. The idea of ‘contracts being null and void’ has never been recognised by the DRC government. Which is a very dangerous reasoning path for us to take to arbitration.

The company has been using in recent official announcement the wording of no opinion being given as to who will ultimately end up with a PE for the north. But if it does go to Dathcom then further negotiations with the other shareholders will be undertaken. This is a very deliberate tactic by DLA Piper for the current reasoning path we are on and I fully support it. It is far better idea than letting the ICSID decide who should get it imo

 

[Carlos Danger]

Force AVZ hand ?

Well, when you think about it, AVZ delisting and not having to conform to the regs of the ASX per se, should allow the BOD to have more freedoms as to revealing pertinent information about such issues as the North / other matters / path way forward outside of a AGM wouldnt you think ?

I mean if the big hitters on this forum ( sophs ) were to construct a email with a list of concerns and possibly arrange a private meeting with Nige and crew, would that be at all possible ?

When WFE was in VS, i arranged a one on one meeting with the cunt Brewer with a list of questions that were collaboratively put together by a number of big hitters........i gotta admit tho, i felt he was just paying me lip service and eventually they went bust.......... but hey



Thoughts ?

Possibly. But lip service is all you will ever get from any company's management. That's why I don't bother talking to any of them. They're hardly going to admit wrongdoing or let you know if things are actually bad because EGM's can still be called when listed or not listed leading to them losing their jobs.

Also, there isn't a soap strong enough on this planet for me to ever shake hands with Brewer. You're a brave man.

 

[Bray]

Youre killing me Frank, so FT upset that the west is " lecturing ", but happy for Russia / China to loot ?

View attachment 62212

View attachment 62213

can't palm myself in the face any harder reading that, what an absolute fucking goose!!!

 

[RHyNO]

Someone smart play this out for me, we offload the entire asset, for a price that puts the company at let’s say $10 per share? How do we as shareholders sell our shares at that value? Or will management do a dividend? If so what would encourage them to do so? Like how can I now sell my shares if they are at a price without being on market? Are we not now existing at the behest of management? Thanks in advance. FKA Tommy the journalist of Gina.

 

[Dave Evans]

I hope you’re right. But I just don’t think that is how the ICSID will see it if it gets that far. Hopefully we never need to find out what their decision would be and an alternative outcome can be reached long before then. Dathcom were under no obligation to file the waiver as I have said numerous times. They should have fought it then and there rather than agreeing to the split even if under false pretences. If there was a written contract rather than just a waiver submission this surely would have been all over a long time ago.

If the MoM had of mentioned Dathcom being tricked or a contract dispute in 00032 then it would be an obvious slam dunk case. But she clearly doesn’t and instead cites Cominiere’s letter from December 2022 that blames AVZ ignoring the minority shareholders opinion. That is the basis of AVZ’s current claim to Dathcom having the entirety of PR13359. The idea of ‘contracts being null and void’ has never been recognised by the DRC government. Which is a very dangerous reasoning path for us to take to arbitration.

The company has been using in recent official announcement the wording of no opinion being given as to who will ultimately end up with a PE for the north. But if it does go to Dathcom then further negotiations with the other shareholders will be undertaken. This is a very deliberate tactic by DLA Piper for the current reasoning path we are on and I fully support it. It is far better idea than letting the ICSID decide who should get it imo

Carlos, I’m sure you can imagine that all evidence in this (including the skullduggery) will have been given to DLA Piper.

As for Cominiere claiming AVZ ignored their minority opinion. Do you or anyone else think for a second that Cominiere didn’t want the split, so that they and the DRC could claim a greater percentage of the project through a new JV in the north?

My guess would be that Cominiere orchestrated the split and once again I imagine DLA Piper has the evidence and that is why we have been winning the ICC and ICSID cases.

The only genuine complaint (claim) Cominiere could have was that we didn’t agree to them selling 15% to Jin Cheng, and the evidence that wasn’t a legal sale has been confirmed firstly by our prior ROFR agreement with Cominiere, then by the IGF and most recently by the ICC.

I hope that adds some possibilities to your questions as I have to move on to other things I’m currently working on

 

[Azzler]

Someone smart play this out for me, we offload the entire asset, for a price that puts the company at let’s say $10 per share? How do we as shareholders sell our shares at that value? Or will management do a dividend? If so what would encourage them to do so? Like how can I now sell my shares if they are at a price without being on market? Are we not now existing at the behest of management? Thanks in advance. FKA Tommy the journalist of Gina.

There would be various options on how to proceed if we can get our positive outcome for AVZ.
We just have to wait to see what they decide to do. But I have no doubt they will be choosing whatever option sees best shareholder returns possible, risk factors included.

They might relist on another exchange as they said in the announcement.
They might pay a divvy, which would suck because of taxes.
But if they sell the asset, then we get stuck with DRC tax on the sale before we see any of it.
If they wind up the company I think we can get our cap gains discount.

I know it's just hypothetical, but 10 bux is a bit ambitious after all the shit, hey but you never know.

If someone has more indepth knowledge about possibly outcomes for shareholder payouts, I'd love to hear about it.

 

[BEISHA]

Possibly. But lip service is all you will ever get from any company's management. That's why I don't bother talking to any of them. They're hardly going to admit wrongdoing or let you know if things are actually bad because EGM's can still be called when listed or not listed leading to them losing their jobs.

Also, there isn't a soap strong enough on this planet for me to ever shake hands with Brewer. You're a brave man.

 

[RHyNO]

There would be various options on how to proceed if we can get our positive outcome for AVZ.
We just have to wait to see what they decide to do. But I have no doubt they will be choosing whatever option sees best shareholder returns possible, risk factors included.

They might relist on another exchange as they said in the announcement.
They might pay a divvy, which would suck because of taxes.
But if they sell the asset, then we get stuck with DRC tax on the sale before we see any of it.
If they wind up the company I think we can get our cap gains discount.

I know it's just hypothetical, but 10 bux is a bit ambitious after all the shit, hey but you never know.

If someone has more indepth knowledge about possibly outcomes for shareholder payouts, I'd love to hear about it.

Thanks mate! Yeah agree $10 is rich. Zinjin if your watching I’d take $3

 

[Flekman11]

Yep, looks like we're all bitches who can't get buyers for our shares.

Supply and demand moron. Make ‘em sweat not knowing what they can and can’t get. Especially good being delisted. But hey if you like panic selling go for it. I’ll buy, PM me.

 

[Thaz]

It depends on how the share / asset sale is structured

Could be a merger / acquisition, in which they could issue shares in the acquiring entity, or cash, or a mixture of both.


All 3 have different taxation implications.

But high level, I would imagine that we would only be entitled to a return of capital upon winding up the company.

After which, itl be a dividend from the company. Company's generally cannot payout a capital distribution that is not a pre cgt gain (i.e. if we sold manono rights. The cap gains in the company would be treated as part of the retained earnings of the company (i.e. payout as dividends)

Ofc, they may structure the deal differently which would have different taxation implications...and also depends on the inherent corporate structure of avz

 

[Flekman11]

Someone smart play this out for me, we offload the entire asset, for a price that puts the company at let’s say $10 per share? How do we as shareholders sell our shares at that value? Or will management do a dividend? If so what would encourage them to do so? Like how can I now sell my shares if they are at a price without being on market? Are we not now existing at the behest of management? Thanks in advance. FKA Tommy the journalist of Gina.

$10 is probably a long way from reality mate but if it goes this way, the likely course is AVZ accepting (subject to shareholder approval, a right you still retain) an offer for our Dathcom share, we take the cash and distribute on a per share basis less a fair bit in various costs. That’s about it mate.

 

[BEISHA]

'Warned us': Germany's foreign minister speaks of deep Russia trade regret

Germany's foreign minister tells 7.30 her nation was caught out being over-reliant on Russian oil and gas and has urged nations worldwide not to do the same in regards to China.

www.abc.net.au

Slightly offtopic article, but relevant in the wests quest to to divert away from China / Russia dependence of critical minerals etc.

I mean we dont really know what influence the west is applying to the DRC govt regards to Manono, but maybe we got a clue from @Frank previous post regards to FT being pissed about " lecturing "

One thing is for sure , outside looking in, its diabolical that AVZ has to fight the might of China and the corruption of DRC on its own regards to what simply is the most influencial lithium asset globally going around by a country mile, whereby who ever owns it, dictates and controls.

China must be stopped!

imo