AVZ Discussion 2022

[Winenut]

Mate, we all appreciate your commitment and passion for getting a fair outcome in this seemingly endless shitshow.

Re: Without the ASX’s prying eyes a variety of positive outcomes are possible for the mushrooms imo

We may need to simply agree to disagree on this statement.

As we are all aware, the ASX is not the regulator. That role falls to the ACCC. However, ASX listing rules require the uniform and timely reporting of key information and events across all its member companies equally, which is a good thing.

There is a significant benefit in having all companies meet the same reporting and accounting standards, and significant downside when companies operate in the shadows without needing to report regularly and to the same standard.

I feel that the AVZ board and its General Manager have not been totally honest with its shareholders on a number of occasions, particularly during its roadshows and around the relinquishment of the northern part of its tenement. When AVZ delists in a weeks time, I fear that management may take advantage of the situation to keep us even more in the dark, and in the process further disenfranchise us from influencing key decisions.

The idea of keeping the enemy guessing through delisting and withholding publicly available information is totally overstated. AVZ's Chinese and DRC enemies will get their intel regardless of whether the company is listed or not.

Cheers
F

The ACCC is not the regulator of the ASX

The ACCC regulates competition and is concerned with consumer law

ASIC (The Australian Securities and Investment Commission) is the regulator of the ASX and in it's broad role regulates financial markets and the conduct of Australian companies

Just for clarity

Cheers

 

[Winenut]

AVZ seems to have about 3.3% short position.
View attachment 62141
Presumably most of those shorters will simply try to work something out with the lender. 3% doesn't seem to represent significant proportion enough for them to desperately out there trying to buy up everybody's shares. At best a few desperates might get approached.

Burning the shorters seems little consolation for the shit we've been through tbh. Although those fuckwits can suck shit anyway and hopefully boatman is suffering.

The shorters aren't fucking concerned

They've been able to deploy their capital all through this exercise in any way they wish (remember they already sold their shares so have the cash)

The smart onces could deploy that capital and make a few percent here and there and cover their interest cost many times over as this whole shit show plays out

I would suspect the interest cost would be tax deductible too

They're only fucked if we manage to get a positive outcome and we can relist and the SP takes off

Then they're all scambling like fuck to close their positions

Fuck I hope that happens.....

 

[Roon]

There's fuck all AVZ shorters in the scheme of things anyway, with a big chunk of the already-low short tranche entering upon our entrance into the ASX200 as hedges against long positions taken up by index funds. Not sure why people are always flogging the nefarious shorter narrative, as it's pretty much immaterial in the AVZ case. Makes a convenient scapegoat or boogeyman I guess.

 

[Carlos Danger]

loose lips sink ships - STFU on a public forum

@Carlos Danger - I'm happy to leave it to ICSID to give the determination, but IMO, unrealised promises and false pretences presented legal issues for MoM, which led to the reunification by decree (yes, 32 not 31, I didn't go back to look). That renders all past actions irrelevant and white noise. All the other shit since then is shitfuckery as Plan B for Zijin and their fuckwit mates.

Do you have copies of the decree from MoM that ratified the 15575 split? Really interested to see if it exists

Back in November we made a bet where I was banging on about Zijin giving up on their claim for the 15% of Dathcom because they had transferred their 33mil USD to their purported claim of Manono Lithium acquiring 15775. Although to be fair DLA piper agreed with me at the time.

Based on publicly available information you were right and I was wrong proven by Fasken bullshitting that they will pursue their claims to the 15% through the back alley DRC court system on Zijin’s behalf

The jade pony has been acquired and it is available to be delivered wherever you want at any time upon your request

As I said the other day I agree with management’s current tactic and believe it will result in a positive outcome for shareholders

Without the ASX’s prying eyes a variety of positive outcomes are possible for the mushrooms imo

View attachment 62119
View attachment 62121
View attachment 62118
View attachment 62120

If I hadn’t of posted after having about a bajillion tequila shots last night I would have realised that I was wrong and that the not photoshopped decree is the purported renewal of the tenement for Cominiere and not their subsequent relinquishment of the new north split and the following granting of 15775 in Manono Lithium’s name that was done without a tender process. Now that I’ve sobered up I have double checked my records and I don’t have a copy of the decree for the creation of 15775 and to my knowledge it has never been made public. But the event has been recognised multiple times by AVZ in official announcements where they say the events are unlawful which I completely agree with and have said so here previously numerous times. The 15775 event has also been recognised by the ICSID. But ultimately if we need to go the distance and the merits are heard I think they will wind that renewal, subsequent relinquishment and granting back.

The surviving legal effect of the Dathcom waiver not so much imo. But hopefully someone can prove me wrong on that or we don’t need to ever find out and an alternative outcome can be reached as the latest announcement indicates by saying ‘AVZ will continue to seek value realisation opportunities for shareholders, including through the resolution of the prevailing disputes and development of the Manono Project, admission to a recognised stock exchange and/or partial or complete disposal of one or more assets’. I also agree that a negotiated outcome or a partial or complete disposal of one or more of our assets should be easier to achieve without the inherit complications for the company while operating as a listed company. I support the bod and fully accept the path that voting for them at last year's AGM brings. I just think that the herd mentality is hurting us when it leads to key decision makers social media accounts being spammed aggressively with nonsense. As Nigel said, be respectful. And the most respectful thing we can do as shareholders is strive to be as factually accurate as possible in what we say imo

 

[Dave Evans]

If I hadn’t of posted after having about a bajillion tequila shots last night I would have realised that I was wrong and that the not photoshopped decree is the purported renewal of the tenement for Cominiere and not their subsequent relinquishment of the new north split and the following granting of 15775 in Manono Lithium’s name that was done without a tender process. Now that I’ve sobered up I have double checked my records and I don’t have a copy of the decree for the creation of 15775 and to my knowledge it has never been made public. But the event has been recognised multiple times by AVZ in official announcements where they say the events are unlawful which I completely agree with and have said so here previously numerous times. The 15775 event has also been recognised by the ICSID. But ultimately if we need to go the distance and the merits are heard I think they will wind that renewal, subsequent relinquishment and granting back.

The surviving legal effect of the Dathcom waiver not so much imo. But hopefully someone can prove me wrong on that or we don’t need to ever find out and an alternative outcome can be reached as the latest announcement indicates by saying ‘AVZ will continue to seek value realisation opportunities for shareholders, including through the resolution of the prevailing disputes and development of the Manono Project, admission to a recognised stock exchange and/or partial or complete disposal of one or more assets’. I also agree that a negotiated outcome or a partial or complete disposal of one or more of our assets should be easier to achieve without the inherit complications for the company while operating as a listed company. I support the bod and fully accept the path that voting for them at last year's AGM brings. I just think that the herd mentality is hurting us when it leads to key decision makers social media accounts being spammed aggressively with nonsense. As Nigel said, be respectful. And the most respectful thing we can do as shareholders is strive to be as factually accurate as possible in what we say imo

View attachment 62154

“The surviving legal effect of the Dathcom waiver not so much imo”

There are stipulations in contracts that say if one party (DRC) doesn’t honour their agreement, the contract is null and void. If that happened to be the case in this instance, then ‘null and void’ means it was never legally waived, never relinquished and never ceded.

I guess DLA are the only ones that currently know and they appear to be sticking to the line that if there was an agreement, the DRC didn’t honour their side

 

[Flight996]

The ACCC is not the regulator of the ASX

The ACCC regulates competition and is concerned with consumer law

ASIC (The Australian Securities and Investment Commission) is the regulator of the ASX and in it's broad role regulates financial markets and the conduct of Australian companies

Just for clarity

Cheers

Thanks Winenut. Yes, my bad.
I meant ASIC but typed ACCC...what was I thinking.
I will edit it.

Cheers

 

[Jazz]

 

[BEISHA]

The ACCC is not the regulator of the ASX

The ACCC regulates competition and is concerned with consumer law

ASIC (The Australian Securities and Investment Commission) is the regulator of the ASX and in it's broad role regulates financial markets and the conduct of Australian companies

Just for clarity

Cheers

Both entitities are fucking useless............just for clarity

 

[robface]

Moïse Katumbi Exposes Corruption Scandal in Congolese Mining Sector - Copperbelt Katanga Mining

Moïse Katumbi, a prominent Congolese opposition figure and former governor of Katanga, has raised concerns about a corruption scandal involving the public

copperbeltkatangamining.com

 

[BEISHA]

That’s why I’m being such a douche about this. I’m trying to force AVZ’s hand if it exists because I truly believe it will help us in the public relations battle.

Force AVZ hand ?

Well, when you think about it, AVZ delisting and not having to conform to the regs of the ASX per se, should allow the BOD to have more freedoms as to revealing pertinent information about such issues as the North / other matters / path way forward outside of a AGM wouldnt you think ?

I mean if the big hitters on this forum ( sophs ) were to construct a email with a list of concerns and possibly arrange a private meeting with Nige and crew, would that be at all possible ?

When WFE was in VS, i arranged a one on one meeting with the cunt Brewer with a list of questions that were collaboratively put together by a number of big hitters........i gotta admit tho, i felt he was just paying me lip service and eventually they went bust.......... but hey



Thoughts ?

 

[cruiser51]

You can't handle a simple observation?

Ever considered a pilgrimage to Cardwell to get free investment advice and crocodile ride?

Don't forget the lurker reads this and could give you an unexpected invitation.....

 

[Frank]

Moïse Katumbi, a prominent Congolese opposition figure and former governor of Katanga, has raised concerns about a corruption scandal involving the public mining company COMINIERE and a mysterious Congolese NGO in the lithium exploitation project in Manono with Australian firm AVZ.

According to Katumbi, after the sale of shares in COMINIERE, a significant sum of $70 million was transferred to the accounts of an NGO, whose president is an administrator of the public company. He highlighted that $40 million of this amount mysteriously disappeared.

Katumbi implicated a Chinese subsidiary of Zijin Mining Group in the bribery scheme and criticized the neglect of justice and transparency institutions like the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) in addressing the issue.

Expressing concern for the well-being of the Congolese people, especially those in the East, Katumbi urged an end to the “shameful looting” of resources and demanded accountability to secure the future for the country’s children.

This accusation of corruption adds to a series of scandals tarnishing President Félix Tshisekedi’s governance.

Katumbi, with presidential ambitions, called for national mobilization against corruption and impunity.

Notably, COMINIERE has faced accusations of favoring the Chinese group Zijin Mining Group over the lithium project in Manono, despite hopes raised by AVZ Mineral Limited’s initiative within the local community.

copperbeltkatangamining.com

 

[BRICK]

Posted just now

 

[Frank]

*Someone needs to remind a certain someone ( Felix the Cat ) that it's not a "Win-Win" if you "Lose-Lose" when it comes to ICC & ICSID, as

The Lobito Corridor, a Route to African Development?​

In this article, Veronica Bolton Smith makes the case that the participating countries in the Lobito Corridor need to do more to become part of the $60 billion Electric Vehicle (EV) battery supply chain.

The stakes are high for Africa as the EV battery market is anticipated to more than double in size to $141.6 billion by 2032, according to Apollo Research.

A primary goal of the Lobito Corridor initiative is to improve and expand the existing railway and supporting infrastructure to allow efficient flows of critical raw materials from mines in Zambia and the DRC to Angola’s port city of Lobito.

Presently, the minerals mainly travel eastward via trucks towards ports in South Africa, Tanzania, and Mozambique.

Poor road infrastructure leads to delays and traffic jams, and once at port further delays are not uncommon due to them being overwhelmed, mismanaged, or lacking in capacity.

The Lobito Corridor establishes a westward path for the minerals providing optionality to producers and easier access to markets in the United States and Europe.

The United States, the EU Commission, the African Development Bank, and the African Finance Corporation have all pledged significant funds towards the project.

The Lobito Corridor is an ambitious public-private-partnership to develop infrastructure linking the copper and cobalt mines of Zambia to key markets in Europe and the United States.

Made possible through multi-stakeholder agreements, the venture has been hailed by the governments of Zambia, the DRC and Angola as crucial for future generations and economic growth.

Alongside the fanfare and big dreams, however, it is important to understand where the greatest value of the Corridor may lie, who stands to benefit the most, and how impact might be measured against expectations.

What is the Lobito Corridor?​

Officially termed the Lobito Atlantic Railway Corridor, this is an agreement between Zambia, the DRC and Angola, and a consortium of three companies (Trafigura, Mota-Engil and Vecturis) to allow for the construction of a railway and all its support infrastructure, so as to transport materials from the mines in Central Africa to a point as close as possible to the markets in the USA and Europe.

This point is the Angolan port city of Lobito.

The Corridor will be used as the route to transport critical raw materials (CRMs), strategic minerals and products of the EV battery value chain.

As demand for CRMs increases, EU and US markets need to access these quicker, more reliably and competitively.

An Atlantic port significantly shortcuts the current Indian Ocean ports of Beira, Dar-es-Salaam and Durban.

Currently trucks transport these materials, placing shipments at risk of hijacking, border delays, capricious political delays and under-performing unloading at overwhelmed ports.

The railway, which exists historically and has already completed a trial journey, will still require further development.

What are the planned benefits?​

While it primarily seeks to deliver critical minerals to western markets, the knock-on effect within the countries of the DRC, Zambia and Angola will foreseeably be increased employment in the region and infrastructure improvements.

At the G20 meeting in September 2023, both the US and EU announced a feasibility study on activating the corridor.

An initial load of over 1000 tons of copper from Ivanhoe Mines was delivered along the railway in December 2023.

copperbeltkatangamining.com

 

[Frank]

*Fyi, In other News i see where,

Congo’s $7 billion infrastructure deal with China will depend on copper prices​

Around $7 billion of infrastructure investments in the Democratic Republic of Congo by Chinese companies in a revised minerals deal will largely depend on copper prices remaining high, details of the agreement published on Friday show.

The government of President Felix Tshisekedi pushed for a review of the 2008 infrastructure for minerals deal with Sinohydro Corp and China Railway Group to bring more benefits for Congo, the world’s biggest cobalt producer.

They signed an agreement in March.

The parties agreed to maintain the current structure of their Sicomines copper and cobalt joint venture shareholding, 68% of which is held by the Chinese partners, and 32% by Congo state miner Gecamines.

The previously unpublished details of the agreement set a number of conditions for the $7 billion investment, which will include the construction of roads in a country that is largely devoid of infrastructure.

The infrastructure finance will come from Sicomines’ profits, which would also be used to reimburse loans from the Chinese companies via Chinese banks to Congo on behalf of Sicomines.

Under the previous version of the agreement, 65% of the profits were to be used to repay these loans.

The parties agreed that $324 million will be invested in mostly road infrastructure every year from 2024 until 2040, but this is conditional on copper prices remaining above $8,000 a metric ton.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was trading around $9,855 a metric ton on Friday, after surging to a two-year peak of $10,208 on Tuesday.

“If the price of copper rises by at least 50% from $8,000 a ton, 30% of the additional profits made under these conditions will be devoted to financing additional infrastructure”, the detailed agreement published on a government website showed.

“The parties understand and accept that Sicomines will cease to finance infrastructure projects in the event that the price of copper falls to $5,200 per tonne or less.”

According to the agreement, Sicomines will continue to be exempted from paying taxes until 2040, a situation widely criticized by Congolese and international civil society organizations, that say the decision was a major loss of revenue for the state.

Congo, also the world’s third-largest copper producer and holds significant deposits of lithium, tin and gold among other minerals, has undertaken to publish all mining contracts as part of a three-year program with the International Monetary Fund.

An IMF staff mission is underway in the country until May 8 to assess the sixth and final review of this program.

mining.com

 

[BEISHA]

*Someone needs to remind a certain someone ( Felix the Cat ) that it's not a "Win-Win" if you "Lose-Lose" when it comes to ICC & ICSID, as

The Lobito Corridor, a Route to African Development?​

In this article, Veronica Bolton Smith makes the case that the participating countries in the Lobito Corridor need to do more to become part of the $60 billion Electric Vehicle (EV) battery supply chain.

The stakes are high for Africa as the EV battery market is anticipated to more than double in size to $141.6 billion by 2032, according to Apollo Research.

A primary goal of the Lobito Corridor initiative is to improve and expand the existing railway and supporting infrastructure to allow efficient flows of critical raw materials from mines in Zambia and the DRC to Angola’s port city of Lobito.

Presently, the minerals mainly travel eastward via trucks towards ports in South Africa, Tanzania, and Mozambique.

Poor road infrastructure leads to delays and traffic jams, and once at port further delays are not uncommon due to them being overwhelmed, mismanaged, or lacking in capacity.

The Lobito Corridor establishes a westward path for the minerals providing optionality to producers and easier access to markets in the United States and Europe.

The United States, the EU Commission, the African Development Bank, and the African Finance Corporation have all pledged significant funds towards the project.

The Lobito Corridor is an ambitious public-private-partnership to develop infrastructure linking the copper and cobalt mines of Zambia to key markets in Europe and the United States.

Made possible through multi-stakeholder agreements, the venture has been hailed by the governments of Zambia, the DRC and Angola as crucial for future generations and economic growth.

Alongside the fanfare and big dreams, however, it is important to understand where the greatest value of the Corridor may lie, who stands to benefit the most, and how impact might be measured against expectations.

What is the Lobito Corridor?​

Officially termed the Lobito Atlantic Railway Corridor, this is an agreement between Zambia, the DRC and Angola, and a consortium of three companies (Trafigura, Mota-Engil and Vecturis) to allow for the construction of a railway and all its support infrastructure, so as to transport materials from the mines in Central Africa to a point as close as possible to the markets in the USA and Europe.

This point is the Angolan port city of Lobito.

The Corridor will be used as the route to transport critical raw materials (CRMs), strategic minerals and products of the EV battery value chain.

As demand for CRMs increases, EU and US markets need to access these quicker, more reliably and competitively.

An Atlantic port significantly shortcuts the current Indian Ocean ports of Beira, Dar-es-Salaam and Durban.

Currently trucks transport these materials, placing shipments at risk of hijacking, border delays, capricious political delays and under-performing unloading at overwhelmed ports.

The railway, which exists historically and has already completed a trial journey, will still require further development.

What are the planned benefits?​

While it primarily seeks to deliver critical minerals to western markets, the knock-on effect within the countries of the DRC, Zambia and Angola will foreseeably be increased employment in the region and infrastructure improvements.

At the G20 meeting in September 2023, both the US and EU announced a feasibility study on activating the corridor.

An initial load of over 1000 tons of copper from Ivanhoe Mines was delivered along the railway in December 2023.

copperbeltkatangamining.com


View attachment 62182

Well, as i see it , the Lobito corridor intitiave by the US is the key bargaining chip in either AVZ getting its ML or achieving a TO by a large US coy, possibly Albermarle (thus avoiding the laborious ICC / ICSID route) , which i reckon would have the FIRBs blessing. ( aka US / Aust critical mineral pact )

Thats the angle the west should be approaching regards to that initiative....." You want Lobito corridor ? Release Manono to its rightful owners, or allow us to TO and payout AVZ long term suffering shareholders who funded the discovery / development "

You can imagine that Zambia and Angola would heap some pressure on FT to make that deal happen to enable Africa as a whole to benefit for the long term future

But what will be the reality ?


imo

 

[Lucas Don Velor]

View attachment 62194

View attachment 62195

View attachment 62196

Well, as i see it , the Lobito corridor intitiave by the US is the key bargaining chip in either AVZ getting its ML or achieving a TO by a large US coy, possibly Albermarle (thus avoiding the laborious ICC / ICSID route) , which i reckon would have the FIRBs blessing. ( aka US / Aust critical mineral pact )

Thats the angle the west should be approaching regards to that initiative....." You want Lobito corridor ? Release Manono to its rightful owners, or allow us to TO and payout AVZ long term suffering shareholders who funded the discovery / development "

You can imagine that Zambia and Angola would heap some pressure on FT to make that deal happen to enable Africa as a whole to benefit for the long term future

View attachment 62197

But what will be the reality ?


imo

Beisha,

I share this sentiment... Both China and US/EU are pitching $1-2B+ railway deals to Africa/DRC... I can't help but think that both deals will be honoured (i.e. win-win) after reading AVZs latest announcement regarding "partial or complete disposal"...

U.S. and China Back Competing Rail Corridors to Zambia's Copper Belt

The U.S government has given new commitments in the development of the Lobito Corridor, which is proposed as a critical trade route to facilitate mov...

maritime-executive.com

 

[BEISHA]

*Fyi, In other News i see where,

Congo’s $7 billion infrastructure deal with China will depend on copper prices​

Around $7 billion of infrastructure investments in the Democratic Republic of Congo by Chinese companies in a revised minerals deal will largely depend on copper prices remaining high, details of the agreement published on Friday show.

The government of President Felix Tshisekedi pushed for a review of the 2008 infrastructure for minerals deal with Sinohydro Corp and China Railway Group to bring more benefits for Congo, the world’s biggest cobalt producer.

They signed an agreement in March.

The parties agreed to maintain the current structure of their Sicomines copper and cobalt joint venture shareholding, 68% of which is held by the Chinese partners, and 32% by Congo state miner Gecamines.

The previously unpublished details of the agreement set a number of conditions for the $7 billion investment, which will include the construction of roads in a country that is largely devoid of infrastructure.

The infrastructure finance will come from Sicomines’ profits, which would also be used to reimburse loans from the Chinese companies via Chinese banks to Congo on behalf of Sicomines.

Under the previous version of the agreement, 65% of the profits were to be used to repay these loans.

The parties agreed that $324 million will be invested in mostly road infrastructure every year from 2024 until 2040, but this is conditional on copper prices remaining above $8,000 a metric ton.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was trading around $9,855 a metric ton on Friday, after surging to a two-year peak of $10,208 on Tuesday.

“If the price of copper rises by at least 50% from $8,000 a ton, 30% of the additional profits made under these conditions will be devoted to financing additional infrastructure”, the detailed agreement published on a government website showed.

“The parties understand and accept that Sicomines will cease to finance infrastructure projects in the event that the price of copper falls to $5,200 per tonne or less.”

According to the agreement, Sicomines will continue to be exempted from paying taxes until 2040, a situation widely criticized by Congolese and international civil society organizations, that say the decision was a major loss of revenue for the state.

Congo, also the world’s third-largest copper producer and holds significant deposits of lithium, tin and gold among other minerals, has undertaken to publish all mining contracts as part of a three-year program with the International Monetary Fund.

An IMF staff mission is underway in the country until May 8 to assess the sixth and final review of this program.

mining.com

View attachment 62188

View attachment 62189

Yeah, disbelief is the operative word there Frank, FT happy to review 2008 infrastructure deal, but not prepared to review the Manono corruption
file.......

 

[BEISHA]

Beisha,

I share this sentiment... Both China and US/EU are pitching $1-2B+ railway deals to Africa/DRC... I can't help but think that both deals will be honoured (i.e. win-win) after reading AVZs latest announcement regarding "partial or complete disposal"...

U.S. and China Back Competing Rail Corridors to Zambia's Copper Belt

The U.S government has given new commitments in the development of the Lobito Corridor, which is proposed as a critical trade route to facilitate mov...

maritime-executive.com

We can only hope Lucas.........

 

[Frank]