AVZ Discussion 2022

Samus

Top 20
Yes Nellie, i think " going to mining " is the only option that makes sense, given i believe a TO is very unlikely unless it involves a gringo, now if that is the case, then a lot of sweetners have to be added to the official announcement if AVZ is going to get a kick up on opening and burn the shorters , cause as you can get the vibe on this forum , plenty of posters looking to get out............so updated DFS release and / or FID, BFS etc need to come out to provide a bit of confidence to the bulls that no more of the shit we have had to endure in the last 14 months doesnt happen again......:rolleyes::unsure:

Until then, everything implied / whispered / we chatted is still just noise for me.


imo
At least in this scenario AVZ can pump the shit out of it before selling and not be forced into a premature sale.
Having said that I'd just rather it was sold and dealt with at this point so a forced outcome with the DRC and the Chinese doesn't sound too bad as long as we can still sue everyone for billions in damages of course! :LOL: Dodgy fucks!
 
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Winenut

Go AVZ!
Geez...

Everyone talking about this scenario or that scenario:rolleyes:....that's cool.....me included :ROFLMAO:

And the tax implications blah blah blah 😲

Seriously

Believe me I'm pondering as well but all you can do is deal with the outcome...... once there is..........an......outcome :oops:
 
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Frank

Top 20
In my opinion - the only thing without the ML, is court cases and who the fuck knows of how long the decisions of the court would take!
We need that MINING LICENCE before anything can move forward!

Cheers

As Adrien says, when it comes to Lithium -The Country must take Advantage of it !

Hello hello Felix, are you listening, Hello hello, anybody there :rolleyes:


1690116199036.png
 
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Samus

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Geez...

Everyone talking about this scenario or that scenario:rolleyes:....that's cool.....me included :ROFLMAO:

And the tax implications blah blah blah 😲

Seriously

Believe me I'm pondering as well but all you can do is deal with the outcome...... once there is..........an......outcome :oops:
Well I might be wrong but it seems like the DRC only has 3 real options at this point.
1. Proceed with the ICSID and risk having to potential pay out billions as well as potentially loosing much needed humanitarian assistance.
2. Issue the mining licence to Dathcom and just let all the other legal shit play out.
3. Negotiate a deal whereby somebody else pays everyone off and the corrupt politicians get their snacks. Part of the deal being that AVZ sells it's percentage to their preferred projet partner/s for a high enough price that shareholders can accept and with the licence as part of the terms. (or something similar)

Time is ticking, this shitshow can't drag on forever. Not if they ever want access to their lithium.
 
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BEISHA

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We'll I might be wrong but it seems like the DRC only has 3 real options at this point.
1. Proceed with the ICSID and risk having to potential pay out billions as well as potentially loosing much needed humanitarian assistance.
2. Issue the mining licence to Dathcom and just let all the other legal shit play out.
3. Negotiate a deal whereby somebody else pays everyone off and the corrupt politicians get their snacks. Part of the deal being that AVZ sells it's percentage to their preferred projet partner/s for a high enough price that shareholders can accept and with the licence as part of the terms. (or something similar)

Time is ticking, this shitshow can't drag on forever. Not if they ever want access to their lithium.
Point 2 is the most likely and I doubt very much that ICSID / ICC cases will play out due to the fact that DRC govt / Zijin / Cominiere / Dathomir havnt got a farken hope in hell of winning !

That being said, if i were AVZ bod, would at least want to sue the shit out of Cominiere / Zijin and Dathomir for the delay /anguish / torment to poor suffering long term holders....:mad::mad::cautious:😭

Anyway, August aint far away...........;)

ticktock-clock.gif
 
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I'm speculating here.

Hypothetically AVZ sell the rights to tenement/assets to A and B for $C amount.

Current holders would get a special dividend payment.
AVZ will have $C in funds but pretty much no physical assets of value. Just cash.
AVZ will exit TH (Question: before or after special dividend payment?).

What that does to SP? No idea, I have not seen something like this before. Usually market cap will reflect current assets... but unsure in this hypothetical case given the issues facing this company.
ASX: PSC is a relevant example if I'm not mistaken.

DYOR
 
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Fuck off 🐍. What have your puppets instructed you to do today?
 
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Doc

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rocco

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John25

Regular
Yes Nellie, i think " going to mining " is the only option that makes sense, given i believe a TO is very unlikely unless it involves a gringo, now if that is the case, then a lot of sweetners have to be added to the official announcement if AVZ is going to get a kick up on opening and burn the shorters , cause as you can get the vibe on this forum , plenty of posters looking to get out............so updated DFS release and / or FID, BFS etc need to come out to provide a bit of confidence to the bulls that no more of the shit we have had to endure in the last 14 months happens again......:rolleyes::unsure:

Until then, everything implied / whispered / we chatted is still just noise for me.


imo
No plan in getting out but a lazy $500K be nice for a long awaited retail therapy
 
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Rediah

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Hemicuda

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TheCount

Regular
Yes speculating on all this without all the pieces can be a bit frustrating, I'm asking myself is it even worth the effort knowing there are a number of paths forward and an exercise like this is really a bit of guess work to a certain extent.

However, there's not much else to do until we wait on an AVZ announcement to provide the clarity we deserve.

In any evert, under the potential scenario of a asset sale, the company could make a special dividend, (that dividend could be partly or fully franked IMO, depending on how tax paid in the DRC is treated here) or maybe a share buy back would be an option.

Maybe under an asset sale the BOD decide to secure another resource opportunity (AUS?) on or around the same time of selling the interest in Manono? This could mean AVZ is not left without an assert at any stage, or possibly depending on the timing of things, Manono would not be assessed as the only asset held under the company.

Big guesses here on all this, wish I was a Taxation Lawyer as it would be helpful to know if under an asset sale whether shareholders would enjoy some local taxation relief for tax paid on the gain in the DRC.

As others have mentioned, a special dividend is income to shareholders, fully taxable unless there is some franking involved. All questions for a tax lawyer as this information is not easily discernible when reviewing ATO information, nor can I find a precedent.

It would be a shame not to enjoy the CGT discount from selling our AVZ shares in due course, assuming the value is representative of the realisation of a potential asset sale.

Some have said AVZ may not need to trade again on an asset sale, maybe. However trading again on completion of an asset sale may provide the opportunity for a shareholder to exit while others come in to make a clip or margin on any special dividend. Anyway, just kicking this thing as there's not much else to do in the interim, the rabbit hole on these types of scenario's goes deep 🦊

Of course all of the above is irrelevant should there be no asset sale, and some new type of JV is agreed, or if a group makes a bid for AVZ Minerals Ltd on the ASX, which would be a cleaner outcome and a preference assuming the pricing is attractive and there's no blocking by the FIRB.

For what it is worth, I think an asset sale is the most likely outcome, yet happy to be surprised with any other outcome for shareholders that provides better value now or in the short term.

Cheers 🦊

Is just one example where BOTH Capital and Income have been handed back to Shareholders.

Screenshot 2023-07-24 at 9.23.11 am.png
 
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BEISHA

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No plan in getting out but a lazy $500K be nice for a long awaited retail therapy
Dont blame you dude, taking a bit off the table for retail therapy, you can also fuck off that job that was forced upon you too, i have a open mind still which way i go, i will first await if and when something transpires , then possibly treat it as a trading stock, not a investment stock........if you get my drift.....;)
 
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wombat74

Top 20
I kept hearing conflicting outcomes over the last few weeks too.
Indeed Comminiere's comments on Twitter (I think it's that Mice guy, not CKK directly), are to be taken with much contempt, they're liers and thieves after all.
But from what I had heard (deal is done) along with other very recent revalations (Zijin, split and certain people in country) followed by Com stating AVZ sold 3 tenaments, along with other murmers... well fuck it, it looks like it actually happened.

I'm hoping we see an announcement soon in regards to this.
It's all from whispers, if it wasn't, it would be announced.

P.S. "Deal Done" did not stipulate any details (sold or mining), the "all sold" is from deductions.
What happened to the South North split ? AVZ gets RD & South CDL .
 
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Chilla

Regular
This could be old and redundant, but I've revently come across the Copper (and RE ) guru Robert Friedland and Ivanhoe mines. Many of you may know of the links from Ivanhoe Mines to Zeijin?

Ivanhoe's ability to explore, open up and get running its copper operation in the DRC is legendary. No doubt the right greasy palms were handled appropriatley.

Could the 'fight' over Manono really be fuelled by Ivanhoe instead of the Chinese? As in it's really one of our own?

(bomb shelter entered in case old thinking)
Unlikely
 
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Dijon101

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This could be old and redundant, but I've revently come across the Copper (and RE ) guru Robert Friedland and Ivanhoe mines. Many of you may know of the links from Ivanhoe Mines to Zeijin?

Ivanhoe's ability to explore, open up and get running its copper operation in the DRC is legendary. No doubt the right greasy palms were handled appropriatley.

Could the 'fight' over Manono really be fuelled by Ivanhoe instead of the Chinese? As in it's really one of our own?

(bomb shelter entered in case old thinking)

No
Nice try though
 
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TheCount

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Nice try at what?

RF is a weapin of a miner - getting into the DRC and getting a mine explored and up and producing in record time ( He did it through Covid)

Are you aware of the links Ivanhoe has to Zeijin?
No one here cares about what you are commenting on. There is no relevance, and reading you're words is like talking to a 10 year old..

Focus on what is actually happening with AVZ, not some other distraction.
 
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Dijon101

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FUD

It's not Ivanhoe vs AVZ /dathcom for control of manono..

It's not even worth anyone's energy getting into a conversation about it.
 
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Dijon101

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The more noise and FUD there is the more confident I am.

Buy when the river runs red so to speak

The top end of town don't shout how great lithium is before they buy it, they short it and feed us as much bs and negativity there is before they buy more. Oldest play in the book.

No reason for Tommy twat to run that article in the AFR other than to feed the public more bs.

The closer we get to a resolution, the more bs they will feed us. I won't tell people to stay positive, but I will repeat, don't believe anything until it's in an official announcement from AVZ.


Bazinga!
 
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