Yes speculating on all this without all the pieces can be a bit frustrating, I'm asking myself is it even worth the effort knowing there are a number of paths forward and an exercise like this is really a bit of guess work to a certain extent.
However, there's not much else to do until we wait on an AVZ announcement to provide the clarity we deserve.
In any evert, under the potential scenario of a asset sale, the company could make a special dividend, (that dividend could be partly or fully franked IMO, depending on how tax paid in the DRC is treated here) or maybe a share buy back would be an option.
Maybe under an asset sale the BOD decide to secure another resource opportunity (AUS?) on or around the same time of selling the interest in Manono? This could mean AVZ is not left without an assert at any stage, or possibly depending on the timing of things, Manono would not be assessed as the only asset held under the company.
Big guesses here on all this, wish I was a Taxation Lawyer as it would be helpful to know if under an asset sale whether shareholders would enjoy some local taxation relief for tax paid on the gain in the DRC.
As others have mentioned, a special dividend is income to shareholders, fully taxable unless there is some franking involved. All questions for a tax lawyer as this information is not easily discernible when reviewing ATO information, nor can I find a precedent.
It would be a shame not to enjoy the CGT discount from selling our AVZ shares in due course, assuming the value is representative of the realisation of a potential asset sale.
Some have said AVZ may not need to trade again on an asset sale, maybe. However trading again on completion of an asset sale may provide the opportunity for a shareholder to exit while others come in to make a clip or margin on any special dividend. Anyway, just kicking this thing as there's not much else to do in the interim, the rabbit hole on these types of scenario's goes deep
Of course all of the above is irrelevant should there be no asset sale, and some new type of JV is agreed, or if a group makes a bid for AVZ Minerals Ltd on the ASX, which would be a cleaner outcome and a preference assuming the pricing is attractive and there's no blocking by the FIRB.
For what it is worth, I think an asset sale is the most likely outcome, yet happy to be surprised with any other outcome for shareholders that provides better value now or in the short term.
Cheers
. What have your puppets instructed you to do today?
