AVZ Discussion 2022

[Azzler]

So where's the update on the CATH TIA, that should have come out on Friday.......

They've been late in the past, up to a week IIRC.
I'm fairly sure CATH are still with us.

 

[Onthefm]

Most of us are familiar with the 3% (sometimes 2%) heuristic used to approximate the value of an underground resource, particularly in early stage copper discoveries. This rule-of-thumb is increasingly used for spodumine discoveries. Based on this, Roche Dure upgraded to 550Mt at 1.65% alone has a value of between US$44 billion and $US66 billion. Mid-range is $US55 billion. Using this approximation, and not taking into account Carrier de l'Este or other potential pegmatite sites at Manono:

AVZ (75% pre-CATH) is worth approx AU$18 per share
AVZ (51% post-CATH) is worth approx AU12 per share

I know, it's a very simplistic calculation that does not take into account a wide range of variables such as sovereign risk discount, the inferred value of the crusher/concentrator, rejuvination of the hydro power plant, and upgrades to roads and bridges. But at the same time it affords zero value to Carrier de l'Este.

Today Stockhead published a separate rule-of-thumb that is used Euroz Hartleys to value early spodumine discoveries. It goes like this:

• Each 10 million tonnes of potential spodumene resource = $80-$100 million of exploration value.
• Each 10Mt of resource that has a clear pathway to production = $150-$300m of speculative development value.
• Each 10Mt of inventory (when in production) = $1.2 billion (at spot prices).

Unfortunately, I am unsure how to properly apply these metrics in order to compare with the 2.5% heuristic approach.

Today is the first trading day of the new financial year, which hopefully is a bumper lithium year for us all.

Cheers
F

Mate once/if l get out of this one as far as I'm concerned sovereign risk in drc is 100%. For listed western companies. Its a shame really. So so much potential.

 

[MoneyBags1348]

I was just having a private chat with @Frank and telling him how I noticed that Antoinette N’samba was following him on Twitter when I saw her post this photo this morning

Which is a little funny because the other day he was in this one

Just wondering if it’s the same people in different hats? Is anyone here good at those spot the difference in the photo puzzles…. probably if I was being more honest I think I’m starting to spend a little too much time here

 

[Strongman]

*Well, well, well, What have we here Julien + CATL + Plant + DRC + Batteries + Developed

*Talk about things that make you go Hmm



View attachment 39150

Surprised that this has not caused more discussion and comment. In the context of this tweet ( if it is genuine) surely the Cath TIA announcement is huge.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

Surprised that this has not caused more discussion and comment. In the context of this tweet ( if it is genuine) surely the Cath TIA announcement is huge.

Alternatively DRC tells AVZ to fuck off and gives it to CATL

 

[CHB]

Nice to see you again Mr. Fox.

I'm hearing the same thing though certainty is extremerly vague, so I hope your source is more definite.

I have such mixed feelings about my investment in AVZ, because despite the pain and worry, even if we only get out of this with a sale price far less than it's worth, it will still be the best trade I'll ever make in my lifetime, and the decision that gave me financial freedom.
Hahaha now watch it all get stolen away now I've said that.

It's easy to start dreaming big considering how valuable Manono really is though, I was watching a review of the Porsche Cayenne S, certainly made me pray for a higher sale price

I think I'm happier about the "not too long" part though, and almost barely caring about the price part, like many, I just want this to be over.

Fingers and toes crossed, staying positive, go team AVZ, go Nigel!

Any chance the best trade of your life will equate to 16x bags from here ..so about $12?

 

[Lucas Don Velor]

Most of us are familiar with the 3% (sometimes 2%) heuristic used to approximate the value of an underground resource, particularly in early stage copper discoveries. This rule-of-thumb is increasingly used for spodumine discoveries. Based on this, Roche Dure upgraded to 550Mt at 1.65% alone has a value of between US$44 billion and $US66 billion. Mid-range is $US55 billion. Using this approximation, and not taking into account Carrier de l'Este or other potential pegmatite sites at Manono:

AVZ (75% pre-CATH) is worth approx AU$18 per share
AVZ (51% post-CATH) is worth approx AU12 per share

I know, it's a very simplistic calculation that does not take into account a wide range of variables such as sovereign risk discount, the inferred value of the Capex incl crusher/concentrator, or the cost of rejuvinating the hydro power plant and upgrading roads and bridges. But at the same time it affords zero value to Carrier de l'Este.

Today Stockhead published a separate rule-of-thumb that is used Euroz Hartleys to value early spodumine discoveries. It goes like this:

• Each 10 million tonnes of potential spodumene resource = $80-$100 million of exploration value.
• Each 10Mt of resource that has a clear pathway to production = $150-$300m of speculative development value.
• Each 10Mt of inventory (when in production) = $1.2 billion (at spot prices).

Unfortunately, I am unsure how to properly apply these metrics in order to compare with the 2.5% heuristic approach.

Today is the first trading day of the new financial year, which hopefully is a bumper lithium year for us all.

Cheers
F

This extrapolation is extremely useful... Valuations of roughly $US11B can be easily obtained via in-ground and Euroz Hartleys method.

Setfire2thehive has some excellent calculation resources on twitter and HC for those interested.

Thanks @Flight996

 

[Winenut]

Now you see how clever I really am

I sold it as an "anchor" to cover my calculations from the spies and trolls but there was some serious work that went into my $12 price prediction.....

 

[Azzler]

Any chance the best trade of your life will equate to 16x bags from here ..so about $12?

I got in at 8c mate

 

[Winenut]

I got in at 8c mate

noice

The 16 bags "from here" reference from CHB was 16 x current price 78c ....which is approximately $12....$12.....$12

 

[Winenut]

The week has started on a little more upbeat note

Hopefully we get some positive news which would be most welcome by everyone

Except that stupid mole/troll/trading tranny..... Linda Bruce

 

[Xerof]

noice

The 16 bags "from here" reference from CHB was 16 x current price 78c ....which is approximately $12....$12.....$12

You're now underpricing it mate

 

[CHB]

I got in at 8c mate

Bastard

 

[Winenut]

Bastard

I'll lend you one...

 

[Winenut]

I clearly have nothing better to do on a Monday......

 

[MoneyBags1348]

I clearly have nothing better to do on a Monday......

Ever since you lost the Mantle you haven’t known what to do with yourself…. It’s the same with me

I don’t even know who the fuck has it now, but this place just hasn’t been the same since

 

[Winenut]

Ever since you lost the Mantle you haven’t known what to do with yourself…. It’s the same with me

I don’t even know who the fuck has it now, but this place just hasn’t been the same since

I think it's TITS

 

[Flight996]

I got in at 8c mate

I got in at 4.5c and 4.8c

I'll give myself an upper-cut...

 

[MoneyBags1348]

I think it's TITS

Do you think it’s time for him to change his profile to something a little more classy like

 

[MoneyBags1348]

Do you think it’s time for him to change his profile to something a little more classy like

Whoops…. I meant this