AVZ Discussion 2022

Charbella

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" Jin are putting together financing for a takeovers. Nigel is negotiating like I do in Silk Road markets. “Each time you speak the price goes up”. The TO offer better look like a golden god or we will just wait out this crap and dig up the lithium and sell it to the USA." - RHyN)1980: 21/06/2023.
F*k bipolar!
 
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Onthefm

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Samus

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@Winenut @Cumquat Cap there’s always something to do fella’s. I’m not sitting around waiting for something to happen or believing the rumours…. I’ve heard them all (negotiations, takeover, cabinet reshuffle etc) and I’ve got my own ideas on how and why they start.

It’s been obvious for months that Mupande and his little band of supposedly powerful corruptors (who have been flying under the radar of late) and members of the government are complicit in the corruption and unlike shareholders who sit around and do nothing I’ve started my own one man war with these arseholes. Thankfully I’ve had a few private messages offering assistance and I’ll just keep accumulating information until I’m ready to send it off to every media, company and official website I can send it to.

Before that I’ll send Ben an email to let him know what investors are up to before getting a response which won’t change anything.

I know there’s shareholders here who don’t support what I do but here’s a little more of what those corrupt arseholes can expect while they try and extort our project away from us and keep trying to convince international investors they are a good place to do business

Foreign Direct Investment in the DRC

The DRC business climate is especially poor, and foreign investors are facing a number of challenges (corruption, lengthy administrative procedures and administrative fees) in establishing their businesses in the DRC.

While there laws protecting investors in the country, the court system is often slow, so disputes can extend for years.

In 2018, the mining code was amended, increasing taxes and royalties, requiring that at least 10% of the capital of mining companies be owned by indigenous citizens, and severely restricting the export of unprocessed minerals under new mining permit.

In addition, the humanitarian and conflict situation in the east of the country and the stormy relations with neighbouring countries (Rwanda, Uganda and Angola) are factors which contribute to persistent insecurity in the country.

In recent years, some of the biggest Chinese mining companies have heavily invested in the country, especially in cobalt and copper mines, with Chinese companies currently owning 15 of the 17 cobalt operations in the DRC.

Weak Points

Several factors hinder the Democratic Republic of Congo’s business climate:
- a difficult business climate (predatory tax agencies, limited access to capital, difficulties enforcing contracts due to the weak judicial system, weak banking sector)
- endemic corruption at all levels of government
- a shortage of skilled labor
- political uncertainty, with ongoing armed conflict in the eastern part of the country
- weak infrastructure (transport, energy, telecommunications)
- high level of poverty
- political instability

What's interesting @MoneyBags1348 is that we haven't heard a peep from the filthy worm JFMK apart from the slight hissy fit he had on twitter (if that account is even legit).
He's dug in the DRC like a tapeworm deep in the guts pulling on nerve endings in the digestive tract and stifling the country's development for the past 20 years as his shit worm mates eat up most of whatever comes out the arse end.

Incredible just how well protected and entrenched he must be not to rate a mention in the media when he essentially controls this whole corrupted mining system.
Only one who's written an article about him in the past 2 years seems to be Kiki.
Doesn't get a mention by the government, only the occasional self promotional bullshit from the man himself to bolster his own ego like the fine dining in Canada.
Also given the above, interesting that it's been said that he doesn't like Nigel...
If FT was legit he'd extract the parasite, this may give investors some hope imo.
Alas either these corrupt pricks have got FT by the balls or he simply does whatever they want for watches and snacks.
 
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Frank

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Yes, you both pretty much nailed it.

The recently signed MoU for a comprehensive battery chain is just an aspirational goal that the west has absolutely no intention of financing. In August 2022, when visiting the DRC the US Secretary of State called for the government to demonstrate the political will to advance democracy, combat corruption, and address the country's human rights abuses. Blinken emphasized the United States' interest in developing cooperation and investing in the DRC when corruption ends.

Currently there is no political will within the DRC government to address corruption, so it's just groundhog day every day. AVZ is backed into a corner, and has no option but to force the DRC's hand through the ICSID process.

Cheers
F
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*Oh dear what can the matter be :unsure:

Felix you fool, France is Not Hap Hap-py :(

With the DRC Games stuck in the Lavatory :poop:

Something Stinks and Macron ain't Hap Hap-py :oops:

Now don't forget the ICSID :ROFLMAO:
 
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Frank

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*In other News, I see where

Independence of the DRC / 1960-2023: 63 years of efforts and deprivations to compensate

Félix Tshisekedi in the oven and at the mill to make a difference despite the pitfalls :rolleyes: :ROFLMAO: :unsure:


This Friday, June 30, 2023, the Democratic Republic of Congo celebrates the 63ᵉ anniversary of its accession to national and international sovereignty.

In perfect communion with the President of the Republic, the Prime Minister and all the representatives of the constituted bodies, the Congolese people will remember the peaceful struggle waged together by the founding fathers of the Republic to achieve this important change, political and historical that will continue to mark the country until the end of time in different areas.

In the run-up to this anniversary, post-1960 generations were spending most of their spare time evaluating the results achieved during the 63-year period spent on the path of expected social change. :unsure:

It is a bit to condemn the elders that young people strive to put the past on trial, while forgetting that they have their share of responsibility in all the evils observed in the country from their birth until today.

To ease their conscience, the elders, for their part, always try to justify their failings in the face of the country's immobility by attributing their own faults to the Belgians who have not been in charge of it for more than six decades.


mediacongo


*What is this "Difference" that you speak of Mr Congo :unsure:

Seems like the same DRC Shit difference Day after Day, Week after Week, Month after Month, Year after Year imo :rolleyes:

Maybe it's Time for Change, but who the Fuck is truly willing to stand up to Corruption and fight for the DRC atm :unsure:

Food for thought :rolleyes:

Frank 🙏
 
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What's interesting @MoneyBags1348 is that we haven't heard a peep from the filthy worm JFMK apart from the slight hissy fit he had on twitter (if that account is even legit).
He's dug in the DRC like a tapeworm deep in the guts pulling on nerve endings in the digestive tract and stifling the country's development for the past 20 years as his shit worm mates eat up most of whatever comes out the arse end.

Incredible just how well protected and entrenched he must be not to rate a mention in the media when he essentially controls this whole corrupted mining system.
Only one who's written an article about him in the past 2 years seems to be Kiki.
Doesn't get a mention by the government, only the occasional self promotional bullshit from the man himself to bolster his own ego like the fine dining in Canada.
Also given the above, interesting that it's been said that he doesn't like Nigel...
If FT was legit he'd extract the parasite, this may give investors some hope imo.
Alas either these corrupt pricks have got FT by the balls or he simply does whatever they want for watches and snacks.

Yes I agree Sam. Mupande is said to be part of a seemingly untouchable group

A little reminder from a source….

According to Bosolo Kweli (alias of our source), a close associate of the CEO of CAMI, the former Strategic Advisor to the Head of State (Vidiye Tshimanga) has become a great businessman in the mining sector for having succeeded in maintaining a CEO ghost at the head of this establishment.

Several Advisors and men of the seraglio of Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi have thus obtained and exploit free of charge the licenses of Gecamines, in Katanga, thanks to the cover of Jean-Félix Mupande.

Thus, in several mining cases, we find partners Mr. Vidiye Tshimanga and Guy Loando Mboyo.

While the Presidency of the Republic wanted to pledge, to the Qataris, a gold mine in the Grand Oriental area, for nearly a billion dollars, Vidiye Tshimanga and Guy Loando in complicity with the very powerful and phantom CEO of CAMI, interfered in the affair. Jean-Félix Mupande, according to our source, has always been the band's companion and advisor in their mining affairs.
 
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Roger2018

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Bla bla bla…the conclusion is, you can’t use Aussies nowhere in the world because there work balance is like a donkey…everywhere where you met them you become the Imagine that there is a looser in front of you…stay in your own country and do what you want, but don’t irritate people with your knowledge that’s like an child who look in the sky and dream about to met Santa Claus 🎅…the damage that the holy BoD arranged is unique in the world 🌍
Poor English Pete! care to have another go? so people understand what you are saying.
 
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Cumquat Cap

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More damage the better, fuck these corrupt politicians
 
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cruiser51

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Rediah

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Bla bla bla…the conclusion is, you can’t use Aussies nowhere in the world because there work balance is like a donkey…everywhere where you met them you become the Imagine that there is a looser in front of you…stay in your own country and do what you want, but don’t irritate people with your knowledge that’s like an child who look in the sky and dream about to met Santa Claus 🎅…the damage that the holy BoD arranged is unique in the world 🌍

Only I am allowed to post this because it’s not racism if I do so

 
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RHyNO

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F*k bipolar!
It’s kind of bipolar, but really it’s simply keeping two opposing thoughts in my mind at the same time. I can believe we are going to succeed and believe we are going to fail. It’s hard to call. As I’ve said. I didn’t sign up to be a part of a lawsuit against a sovereign government. I signed up to mine with an imminent mining license. I mean really I signed up to watch some drill cores come in. When I read about DRC elites attending state operated conferences in China. And I I look to our management and see nothing but a case in an American (the failing empire) court. I am gravely concerned. This is a reasonable and negative thought. Additionally when I read economics books that speak to Americas failing influence. I am further concerned. I can simultaneously believe we have a responsible BOD doing there best. And a bunch of GEO hacks leading an investment from a nation that will get swatted like a fly. I can think of $12 US and I can think of 0. And I can propose these ideas in a forum where we are all waiting for anything at all from a BOD taking down 2mill a year. None of this reflects a mental disorder or is particularly funny.
 
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Xerof

Have a Cigar 1975
Bla bla bla…the conclusion is, you can’t use Aussies nowhere in the world because there work balance is like a donkey…everywhere where you met them you become the Imagine that there is a looser in front of you…stay in your own country and do what you want, but don’t irritate people with your knowledge that’s like an child who look in the sky and dream about to met Santa Claus 🎅…the damage that the holy BoD arranged is unique in the world 🌍

Mate, speak to us in your first language and we'll translate it.

then fuck off
 
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John25

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Well SH’s we have made it ..60 weeks in Limbo
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BRICK

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Bla bla bla…the conclusion is, you can’t use Aussies nowhere in the world because there work balance is like a donkey…everywhere where you met them you become the Imagine that there is a looser in front of you…stay in your own country and do what you want, but don’t irritate people with your knowledge that’s like an child who look in the sky and dream about to met Santa Claus 🎅…the damage that the holy BoD arranged is unique in the world 🌍
Welcome to Straya

02e05d2aa4c087380b097c84e0c117e8.jpg
 
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Xerof

Have a Cigar 1975
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BRICK

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Xerof

Have a Cigar 1975
Yes I agree Sam. Mupande is said to be part of a seemingly untouchable group

A little reminder from a source….

According to Bosolo Kweli (alias of our source), a close associate of the CEO of CAMI, the former Strategic Advisor to the Head of State (Vidiye Tshimanga) has become a great businessman in the mining sector for having succeeded in maintaining a CEO ghost at the head of this establishment.

Several Advisors and men of the seraglio of Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi have thus obtained and exploit free of charge the licenses of Gecamines, in Katanga, thanks to the cover of Jean-Félix Mupande.

Thus, in several mining cases, we find partners Mr. Vidiye Tshimanga and Guy Loando Mboyo.

While the Presidency of the Republic wanted to pledge, to the Qataris, a gold mine in the Grand Oriental area, for nearly a billion dollars, Vidiye Tshimanga and Guy Loando in complicity with the very powerful and phantom CEO of CAMI, interfered in the affair. Jean-Félix Mupande, according to our source, has always been the band's companion and advisor in their mining affairs.

I have wondered, on the darkest nights, why Jules A-Key hasn't poked around CAMI, but of course, then I remember that Sama reinstated J-FMK over the newly appointed CEO, so I guess that answers all my wonderment
 
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Dom1974

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30 June....second EOFY that no one can buy/sell to get one up on the tax man. CATH extension expires today. In true AVZ style, I'm expecting a Friday after hours announcement if the news ain't good.
 
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ptlas

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It’s kind of bipolar, but really it’s simply keeping two opposing thoughts in my mind at the same time. I can believe we are going to succeed and believe we are going to fail. It’s hard to call. As I’ve said. I didn’t sign up to be a part of a lawsuit against a sovereign government. I signed up to mine with an imminent mining license. I mean really I signed up to watch some drill cores come in. When I read about DRC elites attending state operated conferences in China. And I I look to our management and see nothing but a case in an American (the failing empire) court. I am gravely concerned. This is a reasonable and negative thought. Additionally when I read economics books that speak to Americas failing influence. I am further concerned. I can simultaneously believe we have a responsible BOD doing there best. And a bunch of GEO hacks leading an investment from a nation that will get swatted like a fly. I can think of $12 US and I can think of 0. And I can propose these ideas in a forum where we are all waiting for anything at all from a BOD taking down 2mill a year. None of this reflects a mental disorder or is particularly funny.
Maybe change your name to
SchRHodyNger(1980)
 
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Charbella

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It’s kind of bipolar, but really it’s simply keeping two opposing thoughts in my mind at the same time. I can believe we are going to succeed and believe we are going to fail. It’s hard to call. As I’ve said. I didn’t sign up to be a part of a lawsuit against a sovereign government. I signed up to mine with an imminent mining license. I mean really I signed up to watch some drill cores come in. When I read about DRC elites attending state operated conferences in China. And I I look to our management and see nothing but a case in an American (the failing empire) court. I am gravely concerned. This is a reasonable and negative thought. Additionally when I read economics books that speak to Americas failing influence. I am further concerned. I can simultaneously believe we have a responsible BOD doing there best. And a bunch of GEO hacks leading an investment from a nation that will get swatted like a fly. I can think of $12 US and I can think of 0. And I can propose these ideas in a forum where we are all waiting for anything at all from a BOD taking down 2mill a year. None of this reflects a mental disorder or is particularly funny.
Your interpretation of American (the failing empire) is not an accurate geo-political assessment of the current situation.
1. America is determined to become a clean-energy superpower.
2. America wants to hinder China’s technological innovation through control of their semiconductors. The most reliable engine of long-term growth. It’s already happening.

Has China’s power peaked?​

June 07, 2023
Ian Bremmer
Artwork showing Xi Jinping with the Chinese flag, a mountain range, a drone, a tank, and an apartment building
Jess Frampton
I had a fascinating debate on this question a few months ago with political scientist Michael Beckley, who wrote a thoughtful and compelling book arguing that China’s relative rise is over and, therefore, that the United States will remain the world’s sole superpower for the foreseeable future.
This isn’t a new claim. In fact, every few years going back decades we get a new big article or booksaying China’s power is peaking and its decline (or even collapse) is imminent. So far, they’ve always been wrong. But could it be true this time?
Let’s break down the strongest arguments on both sides and decide (spoiler: I say “not so fast”).

Why China has peaked already​

The exceptional rise of China over the past 40 years was just that – exceptional. It relied on a lucky combination of unique and irreplicable tailwinds that are rapidly turning into headwinds. By almost every metric, things have already stopped getting better and are starting to get worse for China.
China’s economic slowdown is structural. As China has grown wealthier, its labor force has become more expensive, diminishing the country’s attractiveness as the “factory of the world.” Official GDP growth had already dropped to 6% before 2019, despite government stimulus masking even weaker underlying growth, and three years of COVID-19 lockdowns only made it worse.
Not only has growth slowed every year for a decade, but most importantly, the quality of China’s growth has deteriorated. Infrastructure has been overbuilt to juice up growth, with dozens of “ghost cities” outfitted with new apartment buildings, roads, and bridges … and no people – the definition of growth without productivity. All this stimulus has been financed by an explosive debt bubble that Beijing has shown little willingness or ability to deflate.
Meanwhile, China’s closed political system and Xi’s statist economic preferences hinder technological innovation, the most reliable engine of long-term growth. While China’s research and development spending has increased massively, the Chinese Communist Party’s increasingly heavy-handed interventions in the tech sector are chilling entrepreneurship and technological experimentation. Many of China’s best and brightest have already left the mainland for more welcoming environments, taking their talent and capital with them. Add to that Western export controls on semiconductors and other dual-use advanced technologies, and China’s tech capabilities will face major binding constraints soon.
China faces the worst demographic trajectory of any country we’ve seen in peacetime. Its 1.4 billion population peaked last year and is now starting to shrink, owing to aging and plummeting birth rates. By 2035, China is estimated to lose roughly 70 million working-age adults and add 130 million seniors. Studies put its total population in 2100 anywhere between 700 million and 475 million (!), at which point one in three Chinese citizens will be over the age of 65. President Xi Jinping’s decisions to end China’s one- and then two-child policies have failed to reverse these trends, and in all likelihood, so will any new policies to boost birth rates short of liberalizing immigration (something Beijing is loath to do). The fact that the demographic implosion has hit China before it’s had a chance to grow wealthy makes its economic and political implications all the more dire.
China faces an increasingly hostile external environment. This is embodied by the United States’ explicit policy of containment of China’s tech sector as well as China’s growing strategic encirclement in its own backyard – where Japan and South Korea are increasing their defense spending, Taiwan grows more defiant by the day, and new anti-China alliances like the Quad and AUKUS are blooming like algae. Relations with India, meanwhile, have become more competitive on the back of military clashes on the shared border, causing Delhi to draw closer to Washington. Anti-China sentiment more broadly has increased as China’s global footprint has expanded, with more than 10 countries having suspended or canceled high-profile projects funded by the Belt and Road Initiative. Meanwhile, China’s closest allies are imploding, with Russia now a pariah in the West, Pakistan’s economy in tatters, and North Korea having gone fully rogue.
China is ruled by an error-prone and capricious dictator who’s unfettered in his ability to pursue his statist and nationalist policy agenda. Much like Russia under Vladimir Putin, the unprecedentedconsolidation of power under Xi means less transparency and debate, less feedback flowing to the top, more arbitrary decisions, and more policy volatility. Dramatic shifts like the haphazard exit from “zero COVID” are inevitable in an environment of poor information and blind loyalty, radically increasing the risk of miscalculation and accidents and further undermining China’s growth and stability.

Why China hasn’t peaked yet​

It’s true that unprecedented headwinds make China’s continued growth more challenging. It’s therefore possible that China will never surpass the United States economically or become a global superpower. But the question is whether China’s power has already peaked, and that’s just not the case.
Yes, China’s economy is growing slower than it used to … but it is still growing faster than America’s. You’d expect growth to slow in any low-income country that has become middle-income in the span of a generation. Still, the IMF projects that China will continue to narrow the gap with the US in the coming decade – growing from 73% of US GDP today to roughly 87% by 2027 and achieving parity around 2030. Chinese labor costs remain dramatically lower than in advanced industrial economies, and China’s already deep integration into global value chains means any decoupling will be slow and incremental rather than sudden and absolute.
As for quality, China’s growth hasn’t been primarily stimulus-driven since shortly after the global financial crisis (except for the COVID reopening period). And while infrastructure spending used to be unproductive, eventually that led to fiscal reforms imposing stricter profitability conditions. Indebtedness is admittedly a huge issue that Beijing has delayed dealing with through the pandemic, but the government remains committed (at least in principle) to getting it under control.
Xi is ideologically committed to a statist economic agenda that will drag on Chinese growth, but he also understands that he shouldn’t kill the goose that lays the golden eggs (the private sector in general, the tech sector in particular). China continues to invest massive state resources in advanced technologies, and it has already achieved parity or surpassed the US in many fields (e.g., voice/facial recognition, smart infrastructure, telecommunications, and electric vehicles). If AI ends up becoming the new commanding height of the global economy (as I think it will), China’s data advantage and strong AI talent pipeline will make it competitive if not dominant.
Demographics are an undeniably real and massive challenge for China … but not a near-term one. And there are plenty of things Beijing can do to kick this can down the road. For example, China’s retirement age is low by international standards (60 for men, 50-55 for women) and hasn’t changed in decades despite big jumps in life expectancy. China can halve its demographic tax by 2035 by bringing 40 million more people into the workforce – a reform Xi flagged in his recent Party Congress report.
Moreover, China’s educational system has only recently seen dramatic increases in funding, with the associated improvements in labor force quality still to come (especially in rural areas). China can further boost productivity by increasing urbanization (now at 65%, compared to an average of 80% in developed countries) and, in particular, moving workers out of low-productivity agriculture (still 25% of the workforce, compared to 3% in most industrialized countries). All this room to grow its labor force participation and productivity gives China a minimum of 10-15 years of runway to address the more stubborn challenge posed by low birth rates.
China’s external environment has become hostile … but no one really wants a “cold war” with Beijing. While the US-China relationship is tilting more antagonistic, Biden (and Xi for that matter) wants to put a floor under it. His containment policy seems to be limited only to narrow sectors deemed critical to national security. And while most US allies want a stronger security relationship with Washington and they’ll abide by any potential US sanctions, none are prepared to decouple economically from China as they have from Russia. China continues to be by far the most important trade partner for nearly all the world’s developing countries – most of whom are sympathetic to Beijing’s prioritization of economic development over ideological alignment.
China has the largest diplomatic network in the world, and its global soft power projection is just getting started. Increased hostility toward Beijing among most wealthy countries doesn’t change the reality that for much of the world, there simply are no feasible economic alternatives at scale. Despite all the talk about decoupling, even the US remains happy to continue selling record levels of agricultural exports to China.
Xi isn’t Putin. His decision to shift away from his zero-COVID policy in response to public demonstrations was clunky and poorly executed, but it was a better choice than cracking down on demonstrators or doubling down on a failed policy – which is what the Russian dictator would have done. Xi remains considerably more risk-averse than him.

My take​

This is a dramatically more challenging domestic and global environment than China has experienced in decades … and it’s only going to get worse. But while China faces “stormy seas,” I think on balance it still has substantial upside. That’s why things like AUKUS and the Quad keep popping up: not because the US and its allies think China’s power has peaked, but because they know that it will continue to increase.
A “Chinese century” may not be in the cards, but another decade of reasonably robust economic growth and increased international influence is very likely.
 
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