Frydenberg spoke of 'secure, resilient and sustainable global supply chains' when giving his preliminary view on why the 2019 Yibin deal was unlikely to be approved. It is unlikely this criteria has changed at FIRB. Therefore concerns of control of AVZ and its 'significant interest in the Manono project' applies only to China and not the USA imoHey @Winenut, thanks for taking the time to reply. In hindsight it was silly of me to post the question, so I have deleted it. I was curious about how a post-buyout valuation of the company would be made, but it's inevitable that my question would be seen as a discussion of Manono value, which understandably is frowned upon right now.
All goodHey @Winenut, thanks for taking the time to reply. In hindsight it was silly of me to post the question, so I have deleted it. I was curious about how a post-buyout valuation of the company would be made, but it's inevitable that my question would be seen as a discussion of Manono value, which understandably is frowned upon right now.
Apologies!!All good
I didn't want to get into the valuation.....too bloody hard!
If AVZ's effective interest in Dathcom is bought out I guess the board can decide to push on to other projects all cashed up and ready to go....or pass the cash on to all the shareholders and ride off into the sunset
That's a couple of scenarios straight off the top of the head
There's probably a hundred more.....
Would a TO pre-ML cause delays in ML for the buyer? Surely so, even with greasing Gov wheels from brown paper bag grease. A deal is a deal - wouldn't it be smarter for DRC to award ML to AVZ, immed followed by pre-agreed TO? That would also be a more spinnable story for DRC Gov to try keeping the IMF, WB, international investor gravy train running? Could be why a deal is taking so long to construct & agree on? IMO.Frydenberg spoke of 'secure, resilient and sustainable global supply chains' when giving his preliminary view on why the 2019 Yibin deal was unlikely to be approved. It is unlikely this criteria has changed at FIRB. Therefore concerns of control of AVZ and its 'significant interest in the Manono project' applies only to China and not the USA imo
That being said a buyout of AVZ's 75% of Dathcom is the most likely scenario. This deal would include all legal challenges being dropped and will be before the mining licence is awarded imo. I can't see the DRC government suddenly deciding to give us the licence just so AVZ shareholders can get more money. The awarding of the licence is their leverage and they will use it to benefit themselves. Not us.
As for what management do with the proceeds of a hypothetical buyout of AVZ's interest in Dathcom there are two main options. Wind up the company and payout all remaining funds to shareholders. Or pay a special dividend and continue operations with remaining funds and look for new tenements in more regular jurisdictions. The latter is more likely imo
Why would AVZ sell if we get the ML?Would a TO pre-ML cause delays in ML for the buyer? Surely so, even with greasing Gov wheels from brown paper bag grease. A deal is a deal - wouldn't it be smarter for DRC to award ML to AVZ, immed followed by pre-agreed TO? That would also be a more spinnable story for DRC Gov to try keeping the IMF, WB, international investor gravy train running? Could be why a deal is taking so long to construct & agree on? IMO.
*Don't Shoot the Messenger, Cos the messenger is going to
Just like the rest of you after reading this pile of
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Agreed $12 USDWhat do you think a fair TO price would be Carlos - my guess is a tick above $2 and happy to be ridiculed for it
Thanks Carlos appreciate your insight as always.Frydenberg spoke of 'secure, resilient and sustainable global supply chains' when giving his preliminary view on why the 2019 Yibin deal was unlikely to be approved. It is unlikely this criteria has changed at FIRB. Therefore concerns of control of AVZ and its 'significant interest in the Manono project' applies only to China and not the USA imo
That being said a buyout of AVZ's 75% of Dathcom is the most likely scenario. This deal would include all legal challenges being dropped and will be before the mining licence is awarded imo. I can't see the DRC government suddenly deciding to give us the licence just so AVZ shareholders can get more money. The awarding of the licence is their leverage and they will use it to benefit themselves. Not us.
As for what management do with the proceeds of a hypothetical buyout of AVZ's interest in Dathcom there are two main options. Wind up the company and payout all remaining funds to shareholders. Or pay a special dividend and continue operations with remaining funds and look for new tenements in more regular jurisdictions. The latter is more likely imo
Simples if it is part of the best deal AVZ can get, at the end of the day, a deal is a deal.Why would AVZ sell if we get the ML?
A lot of people make the mistake of thinking that the lesson of the pied piper is to not trust strangers. But it's not. The moral of the story is to always pay people what they are owed.If they sell they better not decide to keep our fucking money. I'm not following these lying turds on another pied piper adventure. Ffs.
Put it this way - I'm not interested in following Nigel off a cliff like a fucking lemming (again).A lot of people make the mistake of thinking that the lesson of the pied piper is to not trust strangers. But it's not. The moral of the story is to always pay people what they are owed.
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Why isn't there an "oh fuck me are you kidding?" emoji*Don't Shoot the Messenger, Cos the messenger is going to
Just like the rest of you after reading this pile of
View attachment 38633
Dead rightA lot of people make the mistake of thinking that the lesson of the pied piper is to not trust strangers. But it's not. The moral of the story is to always pay people what they are owed.
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It wasn't about pulling the pin and chasing other projects....it was about becoming a fucking serious mining player on the world scene on the back of Manono and then expanding from there......well.....at least that's what I thought at the timeThanks Carlos appreciate your insight as always.
You answered the question I was trying to ask
Your answer has jogged a memory from either the last AGM or Perth RS in which Nigel mentioned pulling the pin and chasing another project (hazy memory but I think it was in the context of AVZ being unsuccessful in getting the ML).
Sheer fatigue for a start. Hard to imagine Nigel and the BOD would have the required appetite and stamina to now build a mine after enduring the head-fuck they've had to go thru just to get a ML. Armed with a ML the prospect of a decent TO presents as a get-out-of-jail card. Forget the DRC and GTFO. IMO.Why would AVZ sell if we get the ML?
*Fyi, Hot off the Press at Media Congo / EconomieIt wasn't about pulling the pin and chasing other projects....it was about becoming a fucking serious mining player on the world scene on the back of Manono and then expanding from there......well.....at least that's what I thought at the time![]()