AVZ Discussion 2022

[Cumquat Cap]

Prefer to avoid straight up TO so as to not have to pay 20% corporate tax in DRC which would be plundered as per usual

 

[Samus]

I'm leaning to prefer a takeover option personally. Any path forward to production seems fraught after what we've experienced for the past 13 months.
The DRC apart from being unreliable and corrupt are a decade behind where they should be in their thought process. This became clear at DRC-Africa Business Forum in 2021 (a red flag in hindsight).
Infrastructure to get product out of Manono should have been started 24 months ago along with the issue of the licence.
Let it be someone else's problem dealing with these idiots instead of us holding for many more years to achieve anything like fair value.
Just my personal opinion but I'd never look back and never consider going near African investments again with a 10 foot pole.
I'm setting a goal regardless of how things progress, I just hope it isn't 3-4 years away or never.
Of course I'd take $12 though but not if it means holding this stock for any longer than I have to so $10 is fine.

I love all these theories about how wonderful everything could or should be but when is any of it going to happen? So far it's been a downwards spiral for the past 2 years and unfortunately the thought of emerging with anything at all is more and more appealing. In that sense - you win China.
Bravo, now where is my payout from both our hero and trojan horse CATL/Mr Pee Pees?
Those pricks even get some money back since they own a fair percentage of the register one way or another anyway...

Whenever I hear about the DRC it makes me want to projectile vomit and then start smashing shit. At this stage this is multiple times a day, not so great for the health.

 

[wombat74]

Prefer to avoid straight up TO so as to not have to pay 20% corporate tax in DRC which would be plundered as per usual

$2.50 TO . Pay the TAX = $2 . Works for me .

 

[cruiser51]

I'm just curious if Zijin is going to stall the ICC 3-4 July 2023 court case.

If they do we will probably hear 5pm 30 June 2023.

Further only other possibility Zijin/Com/Dathomir withdraw by lack of ability to extend.

I dunno how CKK likes it, that he is part of the party saying the DRC is a corrupt bunch of uneducated kids.

 

[Cumquat Cap]

expiry of TIA and upcoming ICC cases in the coming 2 weeks should ensure some sort of announcement - Wombat - 2.50 seems more than fair to me and would similarly be happy - could've been way more if DRC could nut up

 

[David Krappenschitz]

I'm just curious if Zijin is going to stall the ICC 3-4 July 2023 court case.

If they do we will probably hear 5pm 30 June 2023.

Further only other possibility Zijin/Com/Dathomir withdraw by lack of ability to extend.

I dunno how CKK likes it, that he is part of the party saying the DRC is a corrupt bunch of uneducated kids.

Is it possible for Zijin to actually stall it? Or are they legally bound to the date of schedule?

If the previous reason for delay was true ie conflict of schedule of arbitrator (even though super super lucky/convenient for Z), and thus ICC likely not in Zijin’s pocket, then surely Zijin couldn’t find a way to stall?

Hopefully
Gltah

 

[Winenut]

expiry of TIA and upcoming ICC cases in the coming 2 weeks should ensure some sort of announcement - Wombat - 2.50 seems more than fair to me and would similarly be happy - could've been way more if DRC could nut up

2 fiddy is simply not enough....

 

[9cardomaha]

2 fiddy is simply not enough....

Edit: Not the value i am ascribing for TO, just a meme from childhood.

 

[Winenut]

Is it possible for Zijin to actually stall it? Or are they legally bound to the date of schedule?

If the previous reason for delay was true ie conflict of schedule of arbitrator (even though super super lucky/convenient for Z), and thus ICC likely not in Zijin’s pocket, then surely Zijin couldn’t find a way to stall?

Hopefully
Gltah

If Z can't make it or try and stall let the ICC arbitrate in their absence

They've had more than enough time to get their shit together given it has already been delayed once

If there's some sort of mysterious delay again it only adds fuel to the theory that Z are passing around les sacs en papier brun

Fukkem....royally

 

[Hodlandwin69]

@whales

I'll expand on that
First No - To not know about the corruption, he would have had to not read the Jules A Key report. Background though is that he is not in a position of strength to fight the obvious corruption, despite his rhetoric - he does not have majority support to be able to tackle it head on (and anyway, it's probably in his DNA)
Second No - see above - he needs the political support from the very cunts who are corrupt - MoP, PM, probably MoM, and many more
Third No - BoD are entirely focussed on obtaining the ML, it is the only position they can take - please, never talk about a TO without a ML

Having said that, when they finally get it, (and I think they will) bring out the turkeys and we'll talk

They're focused on TO +/- ML

 

[Charbella]

If Z can't make it or try and stall let the ICC arbitrate in their absence

They've had more than enough time to get their shit together given it has already been delayed once

If there's some sort of mysterious delay again it only adds fuel to the theory that Z are passing around le sacs en papier brun

Fukkem....royally

Yep, Zijin had 15 months! If this gets delayed again, ICC Paris has been penetrated by brown paper bags.

 

[Winenut]

View attachment 38624

Edit: Not the value i am ascribing for TO, just a meme from childhood.

 

[John25]

Then why is our BoD so optimistic one may ask. They seemed to be very happy about a positive outcome, so we will have to wait for the next announcement.

Who amongst our BoD are optimistic …are you getting your stocks mixed up …has anyone heard/seen /read anything positive from our board since AGM …Nigel/Ben/John are MIA…over too you geo

 

[Winenut]

Then why is our BoD so optimistic one may ask. They seemed to be very happy about a positive outcome, so we will have to wait for the next announcement.

 

[Frank]

I’m sure all the people with short memories are going to forget Felix has been dragged kicking and screaming to arbitration in the USA because the whole planet now knows about the corruption related to our project and the fact that Cominiere and CAMI have been allowed to hold up the project and sell it off to the Chinese for $120 million less than what it is worth (and most of that money is mysteriously unaccounted for) and the President, Prime Minister, Minister of Portfolio, Minister of Mines and DG of CAMI have all been complicit in the matter.

Now what was that again…. What ever it was we all seem to have forgotten

Franks mate Franz took the bloody words right out of my mouth / read my mind

It sounds like the IGF has a lot in common with Manono and our ML

All Talk - No Farkin' Action atm / still

Why is it so Professor

Why indeed Franz & Jules

WTF - Why the Fark

 

[Winenut]

Question regarding the buyout endgame that is mentioned quite often. Apologies in advance - my question is very naive as I don't have any experience of this type on situation. Don't mean to anger anyone. Genuinely curious to hear others' thinking on this.
When there's talk of a buyout, I assume that people mean our share of Dathcom would be bought from us.
I presume also that a Chinese or US player can't buy AVZ Minerals based on previous FIRB intervention.
That leaves only a takeover by an Australian major, but that doesn't fit with the US vs China narrative.
So the only way for one of those players to get hold of Manono is to buy AVZ's share of Dathcom.
If that's the case, then assuming for a moment that AVZ has 75% of Dathcom and Dathcom has 90% of Manono, then a buy it might yield about AUD 5.7B (0.75 x 0.9 x USD5.66B, using the ICC claim as Manono's valuation in the absence of anything better) cash for AVZ.
Let's say then that AVZ has to settle a few law suits and pay some costs here and there and walks away with about with about AUD5B.
That's about $1.40-$1.50/share, but what value would the company likely really have in that situation?
AVZ would be a cashed up company with no projects. Would the share price likely converge on a simple value of cash-at-hand/SOI less some discount for having the best (highest paid) BOD on the ASX?
I know this is all very back of the envelope and no-one knows for sure what will play out, but just curious to hear what is in others' minds when they think about the buyout scenario and how it would yield a benefit to us long suffering shareholders.

No-one was ever going to takeover AVZ minerals

Nor for that matter AVZ International

FIRB will not come into play in my opinion

The value is in Dathcom assuming Dathcom has the ML (Dathcom is not an Australian domiciled entity)

Everyone knows that Dathcom is what you want control of

All of these things are well known now

You are not as naive as you think I won't add anymore than this

 

[Onthefm]

Then why is our BoD so optimistic one may ask. They seemed to be very happy about a positive outcome, so we will have to wait for the next announcement.

Yes mate they are as optimistic as they have a great relationship with the upper echelons of government. As you would expect from the best bod on the asx. Oh fuck hang on a minute now the best bod on the asx is sueing the upper echelons of government. Mmm but I congrate your optimistic out look. But for me get me out of this complete fuck up as soon as possible any fucker that spends 20 fucken years somewhere and still doesn't get it is a clown imo. Christ he was born in kuching he didn't even get corruption there did his old man not explain it to and 20 years Congo. Somone is taking the piss.

 

[Flight996]

Is it possible for Zijin to actually stall it? Or are they legally bound to the date of schedule?

If the previous reason for delay was true ie conflict of schedule of arbitrator (even though super super lucky/convenient for Z), and thus ICC likely not in Zijin’s pocket, then surely Zijin couldn’t find a way to stall?

Hopefully
Gltah

Hi David

Here are the ICC rules, which unfortunately are silent on delays and postponements by the parties. Nonetheless, there's still something for everyone in the text.

ICC Digital Library

library.iccwbo.org

Cheers

 

[tonster66]

z has brought this action in the ICC against AVZ, so there should be no excuse for a further delay.

 

[j.l]

No-one was ever going to takeover AVZ minerals

Nor for that matter AVZ International

FIRB will not come into play in my opinion

The value is in Dathcom assuming Dathcom has the ML (Dathcom is not an Australian domiciled entity)

Everyone knows that Dathcom is what you want control of

All of these things are well known now

You are not as naive as you think I won't add anymore than this

View attachment 38632

Hey @Winenut, thanks for taking the time to reply. In hindsight it was silly of me to post the question, so I have deleted it. I was curious about how a post-buyout valuation of the company would be made, but it's inevitable that my question would be seen as a discussion of Manono value, which understandably is frowned upon right now.