AVZ Discussion 2022

[Winenut]

Anyhow the DRC Prime Minister is one of the speakers on 121, the Minister of Mines will be there as well.
I wouldn't be surprised Nigel might have un petit tête à tête with them.

Oui Oui, tres bien

 

[Winenut]

Reckon we have been through major troll attack 3 times on AVZ since Ive been a holder by my count and this one is a bit weaker than the 1st two.

Best way to deal with this inundation of uninformed and agenderised and clearly bias posts is simply skip over them. Its white noise from bunch of blow hards. If you reply to them you give O2 them and a soap box platform and load speaker to continue dodgy dialogue IMO. They say opinions are like bums every ones got one. Personally I have no desire to closely examine/see everyones...

For me the facts are clear ... AVZ holds 75% and has stated as much... that it is legally sound (according to AVZ ASX Anns). This is beyond doubt IMHO. So Dathomir claim is sketchy at best and they are pushing s--t uphill here IMO. So for AVZ 51% (with CATH @ 24%) the deal looks to be done /complete. Why? Apart from ASX Anns stating so both CATH and DRC Mining Dept would have done Due Dil on Legal ownership before penning a deal or a ML signoff.

The Cominiere 15% is the main game in this dispute IMO and appears to still be in conjecture. This involves several parties including some parts of DRC Govt Orgs . There have been many allegations in the media on both sides of wrong doings. So until either mediation internally within the umbrella of Dathcom or alternatively a full blown DRC high court case (or presidential decree) we may not know the result. AVZ has been subject to litigation 3 times before (4 if incl appeals) this in the DRC high court, in Supreme court in OZ and the internationally. AVZ have been winner in all 3 so far to my knowledge. Thats a 100% track record.! So legally AVZ seem to know what they are doing you could say ....in all relevant legal arenas.

One thing that I did notice is that the Zijin purchase price (approx $33m payment amount) is not fully paid... They have paid a deposit only looking at their stock exchange reports (Pls correct me if I am wrong here). Why have they not paid it completely... Perhaps they were worried they might lose there $$ if under arbitration ie, the decision is reversed. So are they not sure enough to complete the Tx ? Curious?

Finally if AVZ were to lose the 15% Cominiere was offering then AVZ will have simply lost the "Option" to purchase it but would still control 51%. We have not paid a cent so far for it so far. That 15% would cost AVZ $100's of mills to buy outright but the "option to buy" would be worth a tiny amount in comparison. So what is the $ value that the market attaches to that option in terms of existing valuation/MCap of AVZ. It is that amount that the AVZ Mcap should decline if the option is ultimately lost.

Anyways lets see what tomorrows Ann brings shall we... Given AVZ and Zijin commentary lately I would not be surprised to see litigation/ legal dispute announced. If so will probably take 12--18 months to resolve I'm thinking due to scheduling wait time for court access.

Will there be more court cases into the future ... No doubt. That's par for the course when a resource is as massively valuable as this one is.

All is in my opinion only.
Cheers FH.

Well if your timeframe guesstimate for any legal resolution is close to the money then that's an 18 month haemorrhoid right there....

 

[Xerof]

Jean-Michel Sama Lukonde Kyenge​

Prime Minister Democratic Republic of Congo

He might have taken Nigel's spot ?

Is that the goss? still showing Nigel at 10.40 at this stage on the site at least.I see J-M is speaking separately tomorrow, with the lady with the pen

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

From the crapper:

Zanpakutô

1 Posts.


2

10/05/22

14:11

Post #: 61316689

Share

Bonjour à tous,
I am a Congolese citizen and my perspective can provide an understanding of the difficult situation in which AVZ is today.

• Most politicians and public officials in Congo main objective in life is to get rich at record time and with minimum efforts. They will take any kind of shady back alley deal as long as it gets them a villa in Montpellier or in Anvers. The Cominière deal with Jin Chen Mining is a typical example. Why would a country so poor sell 10% of one of its most valuable assets ? Because the people in charge are preparing their post-Tshisekedi life.
• In December 2023 general election will be held in the country and Felix Tshisekedi and his party the UDPS have little chances to get reelected. Mostly because of rising unemployment, famine, poverty, tribal wars, bref the lack of any kind of hope. I must admit that Congolese officials don't have (yet) the multigenerational mindset westerners or the Chinese have. This is why we sell everything (Copper, Zinc, Tin, Gold, the forest, Coltan and now Lithium) we have with a one-year projection while the others have 50 years of exploitation in their minds.
• Nigel's plan was good: 15% to the Congolese, 24% to CATH and 61 % to AVZ. The problem is the corrupt environment. The only way to save this plan is to inform the Congolese population that some officials are being bribed into selling what could provide jobs and wealth for generations. Nigel needs to send his Congolese partners into the local media to force the officials to nullify the deal they made with Jin Chen Mining.

Always sceptical of posters like this to begin with, next post could they could easily be spruiking Zin and Jin

 

[Dijon101]

From the crapper:

Zanpakutô

1 Posts.


2

10/05/22

14:11

Post #: 61316689

Share




Always sceptical of posters like this to begin with, next post could they could easily be spruiking Zin and Jin

Wow this "Congolese citizen" has better English than me.

 

[Freehold]

Well if your timeframe guesstimate for any legal resolution is close to the money then that's an 18 month haemorrhoid right there....

Well all comes down to how busy the courts are I guess. Maybe not busy and can be done in 6mth I don't know ...

Given the Mining License is in the bag we can still go ahead and build a mine (and if needs be retrospectively charge costs to new additional JV owners if it comes to that). I don't think the project build will be delayed. AVZ want it built, CATH want it built the DRC Govt want it built and we appear to have almost all finance to do it. Doubt they will wait till a arbitration decision before they start.

However, I might be wrong and it may get resolved amicably within the Dathcom Board room thus avoiding litigation... You never know

 

[Freehold]

Wow this "Congolese citizen" has better English than me.

Yes thought his grasp of english was "exceptional" ...prob based in Bondi LOL

 

[Dijon101]

Well all comes down to how busy the courts are I guess. Maybe not busy and can be done in 6mth I don't know ...

Given the Mining License is in the bag we can still go ahead and build a mine (and if needs be retrospectively charge costs to new additional JV owners if it comes to that). I don't think the project build will be delayed. AVZ want it built, CATH want it built the DRC Govt want it built and we appear to have almost all finance to do it. Doubt they will wait till a arbitration decision before they start.

However, I might be wrong and it may get resolved amicably within the Dathcom Board room thus avoiding litigation... You never know

This is what I was wondering. If we could still go ahead and build the mine.

Thanks for the clarification

 

[Sammy_da_Smile]

Whilst we wait for news, it is worth re-reading the DFS. Been a few years now since I last went over it in detail. I re-read it on the plane just before and WOW is she a beauty.

Manono Project Definitive Feasibility Study — AVZ Minerals Limited

Projects Manono Project Technical Review

avzminerals.com.au

 

[cruiser51]

Reckon we have been through major troll attack 3 times on AVZ since Ive been a holder by my count and this one is a bit weaker than the 1st two.

Best way to deal with this inundation of uninformed and agenderised and clearly bias posts is simply skip over them. Its white noise from bunch of blow hards. If you reply to them you give O2 them and a soap box platform and load speaker to continue dodgy dialogue IMO. They say opinions are like bums every ones got one. Personally I have no desire to closely examine/see everyones...

For me the facts are clear ... AVZ holds 75% and has stated as much... that it is legally sound (according to AVZ ASX Anns). This is beyond doubt IMHO. So Dathomir claim is sketchy at best and they are pushing s--t uphill here IMO. So for AVZ 51% (with CATH @ 24%) the deal looks to be done /complete. Why? Apart from ASX Anns stating so both CATH and DRC Mining Dept would have done Due Dil on Legal ownership before penning a deal or a ML signoff.

The Cominiere 15% is the main game in this dispute IMO and appears to still be in conjecture. This involves several parties including some parts of DRC Govt Orgs . There have been many allegations in the media on both sides of wrong doings. So until either mediation internally within the umbrella of Dathcom or alternatively a full blown DRC high court case (or presidential decree) we may not know the result. AVZ has been subject to litigation 3 times before (4 if incl appeals) this in the DRC high court, in Supreme court in OZ and the internationally. AVZ have been winner in all 3 so far to my knowledge. Thats a 100% track record.! So legally AVZ seem to know what they are doing you could say ....in all relevant legal arenas.

One thing that I did notice is that the Zijin purchase price (approx $33m payment amount) is not fully paid... They have paid a deposit only looking at their stock exchange reports (Pls correct me if I am wrong here). Why have they not paid it completely... Perhaps they were worried they might lose there $$ if under arbitration ie, the decision is reversed. So are they not sure enough to complete the Tx ? Curious?

Finally if AVZ were to lose the 15% Cominiere was offering then AVZ will have simply lost the "Option" to purchase it but would still control 51%. We have not paid a cent so far for it so far. That 15% would cost AVZ $100's of mills to buy outright but the "option to buy" would be worth a tiny amount in comparison. So what is the $ value that the market attaches to that option in terms of existing valuation/MCap of AVZ. It is that amount that the AVZ Mcap should decline if the option is ultimately lost.

Anyways lets see what tomorrows Ann brings shall we... Given AVZ and Zijin commentary lately I would not be surprised to see litigation/ legal dispute announced. If so will probably take 12--18 months to resolve I'm thinking due to scheduling wait time for court access.

Will there be more court cases into the future ... No doubt. That's par for the course when a resource is as massively valuable as this one is.

All is in my opinion only.
Cheers FH.

Don't forget AVZ first paid a first minor downpayment and the final payment was substantially later and also CATH has not paid as yet.

I don't know what the process is in the DRC, especially taken into account that they are trying to stamp out corruption, one would expect that the President has some say in this, as it has to align with his general policy how the grant mining leases.
The only statement we have seen so far is a Statement from Zijin, which now states they own 15% of Dathcom.
I thought their news original was that 15% of Dathcom had gone to their subsidiary Jin Cheng Mining.

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

Wow this "Congolese citizen" has better English than me.

Yes thought his grasp of english was "exceptional" ...prob based in Bondi LOL

Haha all you guys made me think of was this...

 

[Remark]

From the crapper:

Zanpakutô

1 Posts.


2

10/05/22

14:11

Post #: 61316689

Share




Always sceptical of posters like this to begin with, next post could they could easily be spruiking Zin and Jin

 

[llhtom]

To be honest, it is not ideal if Zijin get to keep their 15%. However, if they do, time for Zijin to fork out more monies as part of the project. No weaselling out of this. Holding strong still even though tomorrow might be a carnage for AVZ SP.

 

[wombat74]

To be honest, it is not ideal if Zijin get to keep their 15%. However, if they do, time for Zijin to fork out more monies as part of the project. No weaselling out of this. Holding strong still even though tomorrow might be a carnage for AVZ SP.

If there is any uncertainty we need to go into suspension .

 

[Winenut]

If there is any uncertainty we need to go into suspension .

Agree 100%

 

[Winenut]

In relation to having Zijin on board or not, of course long term its in our best interest to grab the 15% if we can, but short-term(talking 3-18months, not the initial shock of the market) if Zijin end up with the 15%(us 51%, CATH 24%) this is undoubtedly be the quickest way to production. Zijin has something crazy like $18b cash in the kittybased on the article I linked last night, and they have experience building mines in the DRC (as mentioned before "6months ahead of schedule" too, so they clearly know how to get us up and running asap. Of course the problem is if it drags out in the courts then we wont get to see that benefit which makes a part of me think if DRC gov cant turn around quickly and annul the supposed sale then maybe we should not even fight for the right to buy this 15%, just give it to them, they will hasten production, hasten 10mtpa, hasten the battery hub, everything, they're cashed up and have all the knowledge, connections and tools to get us to 20-30mtpa with a battery plant quicker than anyone. Add the fact they are as sly as a fox and are state backed, then add CATH and we will be an unstoppable force.

Dont get me wrong, these snakes make me fume, but.....

I'd fight Zijin tooth and nail before letting them have any percentage let alone 15%

I reckon there are other sources of expertise you could harness that could get the project moving ASAP

And you wouldn't then have to keep looking over your shoulder for the rest of the mine life as to when a knife might be coming....

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

In relation to having Zijin on board or not, of course long term its in our best interest to grab the 15% if we can, but short-term(talking 3-18months, not the initial shock of the market) if Zijin end up with the 15%(us 51%, CATH 24%) this is undoubtedly be the quickest way to production. Zijin has something crazy like $18b cash in the kittybased on the article I linked last night, and they have experience building mines in the DRC (as mentioned before "6months ahead of schedule" too, so they clearly know how to get us up and running asap. Of course the problem is if it drags out in the courts then we wont get to see that benefit which makes a part of me think if DRC gov cant turn around quickly and annul the supposed sale then maybe we should not even fight for the right to buy this 15%, just give it to them, they will hasten production, hasten 10mtpa, hasten the battery hub, everything, they're cashed up and have all the knowledge, connections and tools in the country to get us to 20-30mtpa with a battery hub and any other surrounding infrastructure we want quicker than anyone. Add the fact they are as sly as a fox and are state backed, then add CATH and we will be an unstoppable force. DRC gov, CATH, AVZ and Zijin, an almighty force...if you can't beat them join them, having them on our side would also help building mines anywhere on the globe in the future if we make other acquisitions which Nige has alluded too.

Dont get me wrong, these snakes make me fume, but.....

Assuming we are in the 100% legal right for the ownership percentages (which I think we are) we could always negotiate a percentage of ownership (less than 10% ) for them to build and pay for the mine in return for our share being a VERY CHEAP (0.00001% interest ) loan to AVZ.

As much as i don't like the dodgy pricks they do have their advantages.

 

[Frederick Will]

In relation to having Zijin on board or not, of course long term its in our best interest to grab the 15% if we can, but short-term(talking 3-18months, not the initial shock of the market) if Zijin end up with the 15%(us 51%, CATH 24%) this is undoubtedly be the quickest way to production. Zijin has something crazy like $18b cash in the kittybased on the article I linked last night, and they have experience building mines in the DRC (as mentioned before "6months ahead of schedule" too, so they clearly know how to get us up and running asap. Of course the problem is if it drags out in the courts then we wont get to see that benefit which makes a part of me think if DRC gov cant turn around quickly and annul the supposed sale then maybe we should not even fight for the right to buy this 15%, just give it to them, they will hasten production, hasten 10mtpa, hasten the battery hub, everything, they're cashed up and have all the knowledge, connections and tools in the country to get us to 20-30mtpa with a battery hub and any other surrounding infrastructure we want quicker than anyone. Add the fact they are as sly as a fox and are state backed, then add CATH and we will be an unstoppable force. DRC gov, CATH, AVZ and Zijin, an almighty force...if you can't beat them join them, having them on our side would also help building mines anywhere on the globe in the future if we make other acquisitions which Nige has alluded too.

Dont get me wrong, these snakes make me fume, but.....

If Zijin has 15% wouldn't the likely outcome be a TO

 

[ptlas]

If there is any uncertainty we need to go into suspension .

Say 18 months for litigation.
Lift suspension around the time production commences.
ALL GOOD.
10 bags from here
All those shorters will continue to pay holding / borrowing fees.

 

[Xerof]

Haven't we already seen their true colours? Z in, X out