AVZ Discussion 2022

[Bin59]

View attachment 33125

Both Nigel and John are speakers at this event - not sure why both would need to attend/speak.

Aspermont Corporate

london.miningjournalselect.com

 

[TheCount]

A lot of posters don't understand the rules around SEZ eligibility in DRC , mining companies are not eligible for SEZ benefits in DRC, as they don't value add, however as we are processing the SC6 into PLS we are adding value to the mining of SC6 by conversion into PLS, we are eligible for inclusion in the SEZ to the extent of the PLS plant. The PLS plant ideally should be in a SEZ zone, but is currently not, so may be annexed under the Lubumbashi SEZ. The PLS plant is integral to the battery manufacture process, it needs to be completed before battery manufacturing is even piloted. Otherwise the SC6 from Manono needs to be sent to test lab in Canada and back to DRC. AVZ holds the technology for the PLS plant, and isn't likely to release the technology to others.

So we will effectively have a mining operation (outside of SEZ Eligibility and paying taxes at normal DRC rates) which then sells part of its product to a PLS facility (Bean counters , will note transfer pricing rules apply here, unlike corrupt Chinese, yes I am a bean counter like the Count and hung out at same watering holes , at the same time, so I may have met him) , the value add provided by the PLS plant (ie profit, will be eligible for a SEZ hopefully) , trusting that BOD has worked this out.

We kind of have a partial eligibility to be on the battery council, as we are integral part of value adding via PLS plant, ideally we could put PLS plant in Lubumbashi, to simplify, but BOD want jobs in Manono, that is PLS Plant 1 and 2, there is also a rumour of PLS plant 3, 4 & 5, no idea where they would be located. (but hopefully in SEZ zone in Lubumbashi or close by to spread the joy to the East of DRC)

The monster of Manono that we have will benefit the DRC via setting up these SEZ elibile plants close to adequate power plants (limiting factor as to why Manono only has PLS 1 and 2)

So whether we like it or not we are integral to battery manufacturing in DRC, its just that the MK2 battery council hasn't worked this out yet

Huge profitability in developing the PLS plants in DRC, forget the Liontown, offer , not only do we have the resource, we have technology ready to rollout to take advantage of the lowest cost production of batteries in the world, and expand within country, wherever their is suitable power stations and infrastructure. $12 plus share price is a reality , our offer to DRC government is they will get 20% of what we get as a shareholder in the Dathcom venture (10% Dathcom / 10% AVZ), Zero cost base, say equivalent

AVZ 350 Million Shares as part of 15% offer (10% holding) x $12 then double it for their direct holding (my calculator doesnt have enough digits to work out the bonanza DRC goverment is sitting on , but has utterly lost track due to corruption and incompetance)

Nice well laid out answer. I've done the calculations on my own device and I too don't have enough digits on the screen - this is all I came up with...

TC.

 

[Roon]

Both Nigel and John are speakers at this event - not sure why both would need to attend/speak.

Aspermont Corporate

london.miningjournalselect.com

Paid trip to London, isn't it? I'd take it.

 

[Samus]

After its confirmation to the Sama2 government as "ALDEC", the MinÉtat in charge of portfolio NOBLELY dismissed 60% of its cabinet, all from the AFDC of Bahati, its former political grouping. She wanted to communicate it in the presence of the concerned after several humiliations.

The State of public companies of Manganese and Gold (Kisenge-Manganese of Dilolo in Lualaba), Gold based in Watsa and Bunia (Sokimo in Haut Uele and Ituri), Tin-Tantalum-Lithium (Cominiere de Manono), Sakima ( Kivu) Diamonds (Miba in Kasai) forces the resignation of MinPortefeuille.

 

[Charbella]

In the DEC program, @julienpalukucom talks about two studies being conducted by the government in terms of projects:

1. Creation of the ZES in Manono focused on Lithium exploitation.
2. Processing of precursors used in the manufacture of electric batteries.

 

[Retrobyte]

View attachment 33125

Nige and JC were both originally listed to speak, but Nige wasn't on the final agenda - obviously he has bigger fish to fry at the moment.

The five person panel JC was on was chaired by Tom Albanese and was to discuss investment opportunities in gold. Haven't found any video or recording of the session so don't know if JC slipped in anything about AVZ while he was at it.

However, that event also has a number of behind closed doors personal meetings between investors and representative from mining companies, but again, I don't know if JC had any of those type of meetings lined up.

 

[John25]

P

Nige and JC were both originally listed to speak, but Nige wasn't on the final agenda - obviously he has bigger fish to fry at the moment.

The five person panel JC was on was chaired by Tom Albanese and was to discuss investment opportunities in gold. Haven't found any video or recording of the session so don't know if JC slipped in anything about AVZ while he was at it.

However, that event also has a number of behind closed doors personal meetings between investors and representative from mining companies, but again, I don't know if JC had any of those type of meetings lined up.

probably booked up flights/expenses to AVZ to talk about gold …Glad to see he didnt make much effort in his personal presentation …wouldnt of recognised him otherwise

 

[Spikerama]

P

probably booked up flights/expenses to AVZ to talk about gold …Glad to see he didnt make much effort in his personal presentation …wouldnt of recognised him otherwise

Right? He looks like an unemployed vagrant. FFS sharpen up man. Spend a few bones on personal grooming. Not as if we don't pay you enough

 

[CHB]

Dialogue Entre Congolese” by @radiookapi @MONUSCO this evening on the agreement between DRC-Zambia on the value chain of electric batteries. Good debate with Hon @julienpalukucom, Hon Emmanuel Mukundi and @FranckFwamba. SEZ Manono, lithium, @AvzMinerals PE Dathcom mentioned.

 

[Mickyb64]

The State of public companies of Manganese and Gold (Kisenge-Manganese of Dilolo in Lualaba), Gold based in Watsa and Bunia (Sokimo in Haut Uele and Ituri), Tin-Tantalum-Lithium (Cominiere de Manono), Sakima ( Kivu) Diamonds (Miba in Kasai) forces the resignation of MinPortefeuille.

Is this stating that the Minister for Portfolio (The green bitch) has resigned?

 

[Dijon101]

Right? He looks like an unemployed vagrant. FFS sharpen up man. Spend a few bones on personal grooming. Not as if we don't pay you enough

JC's presentation.

"Fuck investing in the DRC, it's aged me 20 years"

Disclaimer
#1 I'm still optimistic that we will pull through all this shit.
#2 Still to many false dawns to use "ML" and "imminent" in the same sentence.....

 

[Roon]

Is this stating that the Minister for Portfolio (The green bitch) has resigned?

She just ousted half of her management staff - probably referring to that. Or calling on her to resign. But she's not going anywhere

 

[Hemicuda]

An important piece of this mess of a puzzle would be the outcome of the ICC case between COMINIERE and MMCS, over the 5% illegally granted to MMCS by our beloved Princess. COMINIERE really, really need this 5% back, to be able to cede 10% to DRC state, with the 15% remaining clear for us to be able to negotiate with DRC over (or worst case Zijin keeps it)

The last I heard was the parties had 90 days to come to an agreement, but nothing has surfaced.

Would anyone with Congolese connections other than Princes and self appointed entrepreneurs called William, like to make enquiries? Marius, Franck or Kiki might be able shed light on this (although things have gone frighteningly quiet over there since the Cabinet reshuffle)

Nfi mate, just calling out a flog when I see it,

 

[Retrobyte]

But she's not going anywhere

I think we will have to accept that she's staying because she influences enough votes to aid Felix's relection chances. But that doesn't mean she won't have a fence put around her to neutralise her involvement in the ML.

 

[TheCount]

Right? He looks like an unemployed vagrant. FFS sharpen up man. Spend a few bones on personal grooming. Not as if we don't pay you enough

Nice watch though.
TC.

 

[Frank]

Lithium is back baby.

After a dry few months the champagne flowed across the sector as everyone got excited a deep pocketed major may buy the bag they’ve been holding through the (not so great) lithium price fall of Q1 2023.

The reason?

Liontown Resources and its decision to knock back a non binding indicative proposal of a $2.50 a share buyout, valued at $5.2 billion, from US lithium giant Albemarle.

Its stock is up 67.5% to $2.55, beyond the offer price and well above its previous ATH of $2.20, signalling investors think another bid from Albemarle or another resource hungry major could be in order.

Both Chalice and Liontown count Perth businessman Tim Goyder as a major shareholder.

Some day for last year’s Diggers and Dealers GJ Stokes Award winner.

Materials stocks rose 2.19% with lithium companies jostling for position at the head of the winner’s list.


Now lets get this shit show on the road and back on track asap

Food for thought Fletch

Cheers

Frank

Value of battery metals in newly-sold EVs tripled on rampant lithium, nickel prices ​

The EV Metal Index, which tracks the value of battery metals in newly registered passenger EVs (including full battery, plug-in and conventional hybrids) around the world, totalled $26.9 billion in 2022, an increase of 232% compared to the prior year.

That figure means as much EV battery metal business was done in 2022 than the combined total of the preceding five years.

And that came despite pandemic lockdowns for most of the year in the world’s largest EV market and turmoil in Europe, the world’s no. 2 electric car market, due to the Ukraine war.

In fact, the value of battery metals deployed in December last year alone surpassed all of 2019 and 2020 combined.

A rush in end-of-year registrations is a feature of the global vehicle market, but December was a blockbuster month in all aspects.

Total battery capacity of the 1.64m EVs sold during December set a new monthly record, expanding 29% year on year to 63.6 GWh, according to Adamas Intelligence, which tracks demand for EV batteries by chemistry, cell supplier and capacity in over 100 countries.

In order to produce the most accurate data, the monthly battery capacity deployed numbers in the MINING.COM EV Metal Index do not include cars leaving assembly lines, those on dealership lots or in the wholesale supply chain, only end-user registered vehicles.

Blockbuster December​

In December 2022, a record 38,061 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent were deployed onto roads globally (55% carbonate, 45% hydroxide) in the batteries of all newly sold passenger EVs combined, up 46% over the same month the year prior.

Lithium prices were also peaking in December around $70,000 a tonne, which lifted the lithium subindex to $2.7 billion during the month, surpassing December 2021 by 280%.

The same was true of nickel, with a record 27,676 tonnes in newly-sold EVs rolling off the lot in December, up 40% over the same month the year prior.

The value of the nickel in hybrids and battery electric vehicles jumped to $856m, 15% above the previous record set in March last year when the London nickel market was in the throes of a crisis and prices spiked.

Cobalt blues​

The cobalt subindex dropped 28% however, after prices for the metal halved over the course of the year and declining cobalt use in batteries eroded growth in absolute deployment tonnage.

According to Adamas data in the second half of last year average cobalt use in EVs was flat as LFP batteries continue to grow in popularity.

In contrast, lithium use per vehicle jumped 17% as average battery pack sizes grew and the global EV sales mix reached 89% full battery-powered cars.

In December 2022, a record 57,980 tonnes of synthetic and natural graphite were deployed, up 48% year on year setting a new record in terms of value as prices consolidated around the early $800s per tonne.

While January 2023 saw the index halve from December, there is likely more weakness ahead given sharp decline in lithium prices in China in recent weeks, a ‘normalizing’ nickel price and ongoing troubles for cobalt both in terms of price and usage.

US, Japan strike deal on supply of minerals for EV batteries​

The US agreed to boost cooperation with Japan on critical mineral supply chains and to expand access to tax breaks as President Joe Biden aims to counter China’s dominance of the electric vehicle battery sector.

Following the pact, EVs that use materials that have been collected or processed in Japan will be eligible for incentives under the US Inflation Reduction Act, Japanese Trade Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said Tuesday in Tokyo.

“This announcement is proof of President Biden’s commitment to building resilient and secure supply chains,” US Trade Representative Katherine Tai said in a statement.

“Japan is one of our most valued trading partners.”

The deal is similar to an agreement Washington has been negotiating with the European Union which would extend access to some of the as much as $369 billion in handouts and tax credits available over the next decade under the IRA, in areas including wind, solar and electric vehicles.

Under the deal, the US and Japan will also refrain from imposing export duties on critical minerals traded between the two nations and discuss how to approach “non-market policies and practices of non-parties affecting trade in critical minerals” — another veiled reference to China.

mining.com

 

[Frank]

Albemarle’s $5.2bn bid for Liontown shows what tier 1 lithium assets are really worth.​

• Bid shows disparity between what equity investors (less knowledgeable) and market participants (more knowledgeable) believe a company is worth
• Tier 1 assets like Liontown’s Kathleen Valley are in the M&A crosshairs
• Other tier 1 takeover targets: Leo Lithium, Sayona Mining, Patriot Battery Metals, Galan Lithium, Lithium Power International

Liontown’s prompt rebuff of Albemarle’s third takeover bid – valuing the company at a record-high $5.2bn – shows investors just how much industry participants are pricing tier 1 lithium assets in the current market.

The bid, revealed by LTR yesterday morning, set off a rocket underneath the near term miner and the wider ASX cohort.

Nearly every miner, project developer and explorer enjoyed strong gains which was welcome relief after months of share price losses.

The reason for the poor performance of lithium equities in 2023 is simple. Since reaching a peak November last year lithium prices have fallen back significantly.

Unsurprisingly, ASX equities have followed suit.

The difference is that the equities were never anywhere near peak pricing, says Canaccord Genuity mining analyst Reg Spencer.

“They were always undervalued compared to where market pricing was for lithium products,” he told Stockhead.

“Now this bid for Liontown shows what price a buyer is willing to pay for a tier 1 asset.”

This bid shows the disparity between what equity investors (less knowledgeable) and market participants (more knowledgeable) – carmakers, OEMs, chemical companies, other lithium companies – believe a company is worth.





$US25bn capped Albemarle one of the world’s largest lithium producers, is the perfect example of a company that should know its stuff. Same goes for Liontown.

“Clearly Liontown see a lot more value than what was implied by that bid,” Spencer says.

“I don’t necessarily disagree. Pilbara Minerals is a very good example of what can happen when you get some good pricing, with a big asset and production at scale.

Liontown is going to have that in a few years’ time.

“The other strategic aspect, which is hard to quantify and certainty wasn’t reflected in the bid price, is what value do you place on Liontown, knowing they will be a supplier to North American industry participants?

“They meet a lot of the requirements under the Inflation Reduction Act, which means if Tesla makes an EV using Liontown lithium [they] get a tax credit.

“There is quite a strategic value to Liontown, and that is certainly not reflected in that bid price, in my view.”

The dance between Albemarle and Liontown may not be done.



Bell Potter has a base case valuation of $2.81/sh for Liontown “using what we consider a conservative lithium price outlook (long term US$1,300/t SC6)”.

It currently has a $3.35/sh valuation on the stock.

“Acquiring LTR would deliver ALB (or any acquirer) a large, long-life bolt-on project with production ramping up from mid-2024; complementing its existing Australian mining operations (49% of Greenbushes, 60% of Wodgina) and downstream lithium business (85% of Kemerton Lithium Refinery),” Bell Potter says.

Which other ASX stocks else could rerate on M&A action?​

Spencer says tier 1 assets like Liontown’s Kathleen Valley are in the crosshairs.

“The long-term growth of this sector, the challenges associated with bringing on new supply, and the fact that there isn’t that many tier 1 assets in the market makes some of these things quite attractive to potential M&A,” he says.

So, what does a tier 1 lithium project look like?

In hard rock, Spencer says anything over 100Mt with the potential to do 500-700,000ta a year of spodumene.

“For the hard rock guys Leo Lithium has a big resource,” he says.

“Sayona in Quebec also has total project resources in excess of 100Mt and they are about to go into production.”

Then there’s Ken Brinsden’s Patriot Battery Metals in Canada.

“Even though they don’t have a resource yet the drilling is looking very, very good and all indications are that they would have something of scale,” Spencer says.

Brine deposits also boast scale potential, which makes them attractive from an M&A standpoint.

Especially to the Chinese.

“The Chinese are effectively locked out of Australia and North America, so if you have a good brine project in South America you are going to attract the interest of the Chinese,” Spencer says.

“For those guys you are looking at companies like Galan Lithium and Lithium Power – companies that have long life and scale potential.”

M&A discussions ‘happening everywhere’​

You can bet all manner of M&A discussions are happening behind the scenes, especially now equity prices have pulled back, Spencer says.

“The pullback in equity valuations suddenly makes lithium assets cheaper than what they were six months ago,” he says.

“This is why I think you are going to start to see more M&A in the sector.

“You might recall a month or two ago there was speculation that Tesla was looking at Sigma Lithium, a Canadian listed company with a big asset in Brazil.

“I would expect this to continue.

“It goes to show that strategic players in the sector are thinking about these assets a lot differently than the equity investors.”

 

[Retrobyte]

So, what does a tier 1 lithium project look like?

In hard rock, Spencer says anything over 100Mt with the potential to do 500-700,000ta a year of spodumene.

 

[Samus]

Look who's back.

 

[mouseflying]

Look who's back.

Hopefully, this melbourne based organisation can teach him to calculate the surface fee in timely manner.