The Fox
Regular
Hey Roon,I for one would be very concerned if indeed we are relying on the conclusion of the ICC cases to proceed with the project launch, with ML/FID and thus construction awaiting this closure. I just can't see the DRC government accepting that delay given the strategic nature of the project and FT's trumpeting to the heavens of his EV battery development plans. Following the verbiage released in the latest ministerial decrees about the project being held hostage due to the ownership disputes within Dathcom, this shot-across-the-bow was I think setting up the grounds for a potential outright stripping of the licence by the authorities in the national interest, should this look like it will drag on for an extended period without resolution. Or at least the government trying to promote some path forward, with a warning attached to reinforce the message.
Hopefully IMO we can at least use the likely outcomes of the ICC cases as the basis for a negotiated settlement that can move us all forward which, whilst unappealing, would at least reduce the likelihood of an outright AVZ collapse. Yes this may all be part of the Chinese plan, pushing us towards a deal as the lesser of two evils (which they are very good at), though the risk of a negative outcome for AVZ remains real. I dont really buy into the claim that the DRC won't dare oust us due to the message this would send to the wider international investment community. If they feel they need to in order to get the project moving, they will, and can present their national interest justifications until the furore dies down.
In any case I think we wouldn't necessarily be in a particularly bad position in a negotiation. We could probably reach an outcome which may satisfy most shareholders, paving the way to the resumption of Manono's development, though definitely not one that would please all here. I hope the email posted here that management were in the midst of negotiations is in fact the case, and that some sort of middle ground in weighted favor to AVZ could be found in the near term. Even though the government is largely at fault for our current predicament through its corrupt ministers supporting the hostile Chinese agenda, the wider government's 'patience' to leave Manono undeveloped probably also won't last forever, especially with those Chinese interests still being represented faithfully by the key actors we all know. FT doesn't seem in a rush to intervene either, so may be down to us.
I'd be concerned also if the ICC turned out to be the endgame, but at least there is an endgame. To be clear, I suggest the inclusion of dates around completion of any ICC case is mostly for strategic purposes stating AVZ will wait it out if necessary. Yet I think we all expect a resolution in the near term as Felix and friends can't keep stuffing around with Manono for much longer. Promises and announcements unfulfilled by Felix are mounting up big time. I don't believe the DRC can just give Manono to someone else, if that happens the recipient of Manono would be attached to an ICC case as well.
This might be a simple assessment of a complex issue, however if the DRC picked up double the level of ownership in Manono as dictated by the act and sat on 20%, as long as Zijin and Cong were "taken care of" one way or another and held no equity, and AVZ (Dathcom) held all of the original lease, then that would have to be a very good outcome for AVZ to sit on 80% prior to completion of any modified deal with Mr. Pei. Just a thought.

Felix could be seen as a champion securing double the usual equity held by Gov.
Cheers The Fox

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