AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Samus
Top 20
They need to pay at least 5.4 to get you around that $1:50 price wombat.
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.
$1.50 is not too dusty an offer, all things considered.
There is a very long road ahead to build this project. DFS capex well out of date now. be lucky if commissioning in 2025 based on where things are at now, and ML was given with FID rapid to follow. Unlikely going to be that quick, as capex costs willed updating for sure.
CATL a good exit option.
Sparrowhawk12
Regular
Why are you still here ?????????????????????????????????????
Winenut
Go AVZ!
to try and push the price down...
Winenut
Go AVZ!
Winenut
Go AVZ!
I'll have a slab of Grange thank you
DiscoDanNZ
Regular
I got addicted to Swan while in WA and can't get it in Brisbane. That's my choice and getting it will be your problem
.Maybe if there's a TO we need to have a piss up somewhere.
The other thing I've been contemplating is if AVZ gets taken over or ceases to exist, where do all us degenerates go to hang out? Do we all just YOLO 10k each into a random stock and take over the HC threads?
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Samus
Top 20
I didn't really drink beer for years but now I drink it religiously after work since the shitshow and I'm partial to Stella Artois.
Very generous
Bring on the $1:50 takeover I'm running out of beer.
Carlos Danger
Top 20
I know people like to be negative but come on,
"90 cents TO talk is equally as ludicrous as $10, infact arguably more ludicrous the way things stand and are looking from the outside with all the facts and movements considered."
I.E
We hold a good position, a reshuffle of ministers ANNOUNCED so on its way(slowly I know), Felix stance on corruption ANNOUNCED many times, IGF Jules talking about Cominieres crimes via corruption, IFG report, Our advisors over there having got through to Felix (final assult), We have ML Decree, all signs are essentially pointing to ML being given to US. All signs with ICC are greatly in favour of US. Therefore 90cents TO being accepted by BOD with ML on its way, likelihood........next to fuck all.
Likelihood of us building a mine, expanding, PLS, JV in Hydroxide plant, expand again into CDL, JV in battery plant possibly, left field anns, being the boss at the top of the pile at a time lithium is roaring --- likelihood of $35b,
I'm no expert but I can tell you a lot likelier than 90c - "The way we stand, with all the facts and movements considered"
Also, we have the $50mil credit facility that it looks like we will be using. So much much longer cash burn than a year, the drilling will be done and cash burn down before then too.
Major national elections? Why does this automatically mean Felix is out ?
The yanks are behind Felix, so are the Catholics, so are many others. Only the crooks that Kabila fed are behind him, and if you haven't noticed they are being thrown out of cabinets and also thrown into jail.
We will get the ML, we have the $$ to wait it out until the ICC decisions that will obviously be in our favour so at this point, sooner or later we will go mining.
Clearly an offer at least 1.50 will be made. Even @Modo is happy with it so that gives you an indication as to what's coming. As I've said before there is no chance the bod will let themselves be open to class action from investors that lose money by selling below the all time high.Stop anchoring the low prices!
And I'm 100% with them. I'd rather face the unknown of the election than see people that have had to endure this shitshow through no fault of their own get rat fucked by the pre suspension happy talk of management. The bod have indicated to shareholders privately that they would accept 2.00 as it stands and I believe that.
I still think lions gonna lion and all will be well in the pride lands soon. But there is a very fine line between optimism and delusion. Like I said everybody that looks at the situation reasonably has a price between 1.38 and 2.00 if a potential takeover needs to happen.
A fair price for me is 1.88. You know, for luck.
TDITD
Top 20
We weren't talking about being worth 35 billion in 5 or 10yrs should we build a mine, expand, get a JV in a Hydroxide plant, expand again into CDL, JV in battery plant possibly and be the boss at the top of the pile at a time lithium is roaring. We were talking about a 35B takeover, you know as opposed to one for 90c or whatever if the Chinese manage to grind us down in the the case that the ML doesnt appear on the way. Sure the board wouldn't look at that now, but 1.5$ or so if things don't play out the way we hope and things could be different...
And maybe you're seeing things I'm not but let's have a look at your points there showing all the signs being pointed to us receiving our ML
We hold a good position - well we've held the same good position for the some time with no ostensible change in our circumstances
a reshuffle of ministers ANNOUNCED so on its way(slowly I know) - it would be good to see the green mamba go for sure if that doesn't turn out to be the case. Its not occured yet. But is she the main sticking point in any case? This isn't a shuffle of departments that would oust old mate JPW, for the third time anyway, who management essentially admitted was the roadblock
Felix stance on corruption ANNOUNCED many times - yes and what's come of that? Several high profile court cases when unavoidable, with them either being freed or declared not guilty. Might see a more of a push on this front as voting approaches for optics though perhaps
IGF Jules talking about Cominieres crimes via corruption - yes this is good. If only IGF had powers to prosecute rather than just send a report in to a corrupt judiciary
Our advisors over there having got through to Felix (final assult) - really? Sure our MD said he backs us now after previous disinformation but have we seen anything to suggest he does indeed support us? Nada
We have ML Decree - yes a Decree that enshrines the illegal split of our tenement, and the release of which began our 10 month suspension several days after
where are all the signs you stated that are essentially pointing to ML being given?
"Major national elections? Why does this automatically mean Felix is out ?" - where did I say it did? But any election is a risk factor, especially when corruption is so rife. Wouldn't only be them too, Chinese would prefer Kabila also. Honestly though I think FT will win, I'm just suggesting we wouldn't particularly want to be without a ML and several of our ICC cases yet to be wrapped up whilst going into something which could plausibly go another way than we would like.
I still feel we will get the ML, and likely in the not too distant future, but I think a TO attempt is in the makings in the meantime. I think in 6 months time if we haven't ironed out our issues such a circumstance may begin to look more appealing, and that a realistic figure would be more likely.
Apolgies for the response anyway, i just don't like someone facepalming me for not accepting their always positive viewpoint, and suggest someones a negative fool for thinking a 35b takeover was less likely "The ways things stand" than one at 5b or so.
Let's be balanced
Viva la ML so we can put all this shit to bed
Get over yourselfThe fact you have gone from the sublimely ridiculous .90 TO and then leapt to $1.50 tells it all
It was and is ridiculous.
Didn't even bother with the rest as it was pointless when you jumped to $1.5 my point was made for me cheers!!!
TDITD
Top 20
You have to get one of the negatives on here to choose it for us, you know to make sure its going to be a dusterAll easy sorted choices…
If it ceases to exist I suggest we find another stock to dump a heap of money into to fill our void of anxiety, depression and anger
Winenut
Go AVZ!
Sportsbet...All easy sorted choices…
If it ceases to exist I suggest we find another stock to dump a heap of money into to fill our void of anxiety, depression and anger
Chilla
Regular
For clarity….AVZ will not be taken over. They may sell their part of the project for a price that is acceptable to shareholders one day….. but AVZ will continue to exist on the ASX and go in search of new opportunities if that happens.
Once ML issued and 10Mtpa numbers announced, I’m sure they will be fielding many offers.
Nige gave a hint at the Melb Preso of the project value. His words were that if the DRC took the project away, then they would seek US$10billiin in damages through a case in the ICC.
You can work out your own SP from that
Once ML issued and 10Mtpa numbers announced, I’m sure they will be fielding many offers.
Nige gave a hint at the Melb Preso of the project value. His words were that if the DRC took the project away, then they would seek US$10billiin in damages through a case in the ICC.
You can work out your own SP from that
TDITD
Top 20
If even Modo is happy, pause a moment, does this not tell you everything you need to know. Even MODO knows a reasonable TO price is NOWHERE near .90
BUT at $1.5-2 we are leaving so so much on the table, however if it was communicated by the BOD that we have been and will continue to be blocked then obviously we have to get as much for it as possible in its current state, then so be it.
Like you I think it doesn't look anything like that ATM, it looks like we are ever so slowly progressing. The shuffle is important, Felix has stated that crims will be dealt with, it wouldn't suprise me to see Kayinda moved into another position then sometime after the elections dealt with.
The $1.5 was laughed at and ridiculed by many at the start of this suspension, everyone knew it was a joke price. It seems like people are over it so just want to sell it cheap to get a good profit instead of wait till mining and beyond for ridiculous profit.
Personally I'd not be happy at all with that, with what we have left on the table, yes I'd literally be not happy to have millions paid out to me because....... I'm here for the dividends
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