ASN CHART THREAD

[Winenut]

Looks like the lower support levels were hit yesterday

Dow Futures have taken a little turn and looking better which is encouraging

Seems to be more buying around these 30c levels

Would be very nice to get some good announcements that strengthen and confirm the FA and put some more upward pressure on the SP

 

[BEISHA]

Looks like the lower support levels were hit yesterday

Dow Futures have taken a little turn and looking better which is encouraging

Seems to be more buying around these 30c levels

Would be very nice to get some good announcements that strengthen and confirm the FA and put some more upward pressure on the SP

Upper Blue bubble is indicating a potential reversal sub wave 5 up is imminent, with heiken ashi candle going green , wick up, you can also see the emas flattening out too....

RSI 14 indicator blue bubble suggesting 50 maybe the pivot for a swing up too...........bullish.

Need confirmation.

Technically, sub wave 5 up will only be confirmed when a clear break of the 23 fib 36c resistance line to the upside is executed.

38 fib levels have historically been a very popular pivot for sub wave 5 up , will this be the case again ?

Or is this current movement just a correction up ?

More great news today builds the case for the former, positive sentiment with the MACRO would help the cause too...

Will that hammer candle in that blue bubble be the pivot for sub wave 5 up for the DOW ?

Will it respect EW rules that sub wave 4 down doesnt enter sub wave 1 up territory ?

Will that engulfing candle ( yellow arrow ) be the pivot for sub wave 3 up ?


Time will tell.


Interesting times ahead.


imo

 

[BEISHA]

@Winenut , @badger27 , @GT8 Sorpresa , @Embassy , @Shivertown1 , @FluffyQuack , @cosors

Hi All

Had a bit of a holiday plus a mental health break from stock market land in general........refreshed now and looking forward to what comes next for ASN.

Cant be far from getting the Cane creek resource upgrade, nice update with the 25% increase in Li grade on the 10/10........exciting to note that the western strategy resource upgrade has now commenced too, incorporating SUNBURST and MINERAL CANYON FED 1 -3 .............i assume those results wont be forth coming until Q1 2023 ?

Given our current resource of 700,000 + tonnes of Lithium & 3.4b tonnes of Bromine.........what are all your thoughts about where this resource upgrade could go to, incorporating both western & eastern strategy ?

Anyone on twitter ?

Would be nice to get a few updates here, EMBASSY used to provide but has gone quiet....

If you guys / gals want ASN TSE threads to thrive and be a alternative to the ASN HC circus with MBOT & KEEPSMILING trolls, then it cant just be left up to me for information sharing.....

Anyway, here is a chart update

Sub wave 4 down looks to have found a base at 27 / 28c.

For a trend reversal , RSI 14 indicator needs to get above 50, SP needs to break 32 / 34 ( 23 fib ) to the upside.

DOW shat itself on Friday night by 400 pts, so lets see how ASN responds come Monday.

MACRO

Has the DOW found a bottom with double bottom 28698 support ( blue bubbles ) ?

5 & 9 ema looks to be converging with the 18 ema / 20sma which is promising .

RSI 14 indicator looks promising too.

For me to be confident of a trend reversal , the resistance zone highlighted in red needs to break to the upside.

Has the Global X found support at 64 ?

Will the support at over sold 29 be the pivot to the upside for the RSI 14 indicator ?

Next week will be revealing as to whether this bearish macro continues its course or a bull reversal develops.

 

[FluffyQuack]

@Winenut , @badger27 , @GT8 Sorpresa , @Embassy , @Shivertown1 , @FluffyQuack , @cosors

Hi All

Had a bit of a holiday plus a mental health break from stock market land in general........refreshed now and looking forward to what comes next for ASN.

View attachment 19043
Cant be far from getting the Cane creek resource upgrade, nice update with the 25% increase in Li grade on the 10/10........exciting to note that the western strategy resource upgrade has now commenced too, incorporating SUNBURST and MINERAL CANYON FED 1 -3 .............i assume those results wont be forth coming until Q1 2023 ?

Given our current resource of 700,000 + tonnes of Lithium & 3.4b tonnes of Bromine.........what are all your thoughts about where this resource upgrade could go to, incorporating both western & eastern strategy ?

Anyone on twitter ?

Would be nice to get a few updates here, EMBASSY used to provide but has gone quiet....

If you guys / gals want ASN TSE threads to thrive and be a alternative to the ASN HC circus with MBOT & KEEPSMILING trolls, then it cant just be left up to me for information sharing.....

Anyway, here is a chart update

View attachment 19048

Sub wave 4 down looks to have found a base at 27 / 28c.

For a trend reversal , RSI 14 indicator needs to get above 50, SP needs to break 32 / 34 ( 23 fib ) to the upside.

DOW shat itself on Friday night by 400 pts, so lets see how ASN responds come Monday.

MACRO

View attachment 19049

Has the DOW found a bottom with double bottom 28698 support ( blue bubbles ) ?

5 & 9 ema looks to be converging with the 18 ema / 20sma which is promising .

RSI 14 indicator looks promising too.

For me to be confident of a trend reversal , the resistance zone highlighted in red needs to break to the upside.

View attachment 19050

Has the Global X found support at 64 ?

Will the support at over sold 29 be the pivot to the upside for the RSI 14 indicator ?

Next week will be revealing as to whether this bearish macro continues its course or a bull reversal develops.

Always appreciate the updates @BEISHA , seems you weren't the only one taking a bit of a break from the markets.

Given all the pointless bickering over at HC, there hasn't been too much happening over the past couple of weeks (bar recent upgrade announcement) worthy of contributing to.

Always a welcome sight to see the Lithium upgrades.

I'm curious about how the Western Strategy will be incorporated into things, as if it expands the resource significantly (my guess is it will), is it going to have any bearing on the amount ASN can produce in Stage 1 (i.e. More than 13kta)? Or will it only come into play for stage 2?

Markets are all over the shop at present. In a sense I am glad no major announcements have been made during this time, as I feel it would slip under the radar and not get the attention it deserves.

Good to see that spot price is climbing past previous ATH. Makes for better contract pricing when the time comes.

 

[BEISHA]

Always appreciate the updates @BEISHA , seems you weren't the only one taking a bit of a break from the markets.

Given all the pointless bickering over at HC, there hasn't been too much happening over the past couple of weeks (bar recent upgrade announcement) worthy of contributing to.

Always a welcome sight to see the Lithium upgrades.

I'm curious about how the Western Strategy will be incorporated into things, as if it expands the resource significantly (my guess is it will), is it going to have any bearing on the amount ASN can produce in Stage 1 (i.e. More than 13kta)? Or will it only come into play for stage 2?

Markets are all over the shop at present. In a sense I am glad no major announcements have been made during this time, as I feel it would slip under the radar and not get the attention it deserves.

Good to see that spot price is climbing past previous ATH. Makes for better contract pricing when the time comes.

13k t / pa is just the tip of the iceberg Fluffy, combine the western and eastern strategy jorc upgrades on top of what is already indicated, i believe long term it could be 50k t/ pa or more , possibly stage 1 could be upgraded to 20k or upwards.

Again, just conjecture until we know what we are dealing with.

As far as the markets ( MACRO ) is concerned.........starting to see some bullish signs.

DOW chart.

a) SP now above the 5, 9 , 18 ema and now converging with the 50 ema with good volume.

b) RSI 14 back testing 50 and rising.

GLOBAL X chart.

SP starting to get ahead of the 5 & 9 ema after briefly hitting the 64 support line, higher highs / lows developing.

RSI 14 indicator starting to develop a bullish trend.

Unfortunately , ASN chart hasnt really followed the lead of the MACRO.

SP still below all the emas and the RSI 14 indicator is still fairly flat.

Volume still subdued.

Will that change tomorrow with the DOW up 748 pts on Friday night, with Global x up too ?

Need ASN SP to break 32/34 resistance for a change of trend, will that be achieved with improving MACRO ?

Or will it require the updated jorc resource release from the western strategy ?

Next week will reveal more.

imo

 

[Shivertown1]

Thanks Beisha, will be interesting to hear what Bruce has to say this week

 

[Winenut]

Nice run from ASN today

Good amount of buyers lining up

Good luck everyone!

 

[BEISHA]

Hi All

I gotta say, I dont like the look of the ASN chart set up one little bit..........bearish

Despite the MACRO being reasonably bullish, plus a decent announcement regards to CANE CREEK / JORC UPGRADE, the chart is breaking down on many fronts

a) yellow arrow pointing to 50 fib ( 28.22 ) support breaking down

b) SP is now below all the EMAs.

c) RSI 14 has broken down sharply below 50

Whats even more concering, is now there is very little support underneath until you get to 16/15c, 21 support is minor, along with 18c too.

After a good run the DOW is now facing head winds...

We could be seeing minor sub wave 4 down taking place, which usually hits the 38 fib , but could go lower, so minimum of a 100pt drop could be in play here, placing more pressure on the ASN sp.


As a result of all this, i decided to play safe and preserve capital by selling 75% of all holdings, will now wait to find a bottom before adding anymore.


Sorry i cant be more positive, its just the way i see it........for now.

As usual..........IMO, IMO, IMO

 

[Winenut]

Will watch closely

appreciate the update, chart and commentary Beish

Cheers

 

[FluffyQuack]

Hi All

I gotta say, I dont like the look of the ASN chart set up one little bit..........bearish

View attachment 21661

Despite the MACRO being reasonably bullish, plus a decent announcement regards to CANE CREEK / JORC UPGRADE, the chart is breaking down on many fronts

a) yellow arrow pointing to 50 fib ( 28.22 ) support breaking down

b) SP is now below all the EMAs.

c) RSI 14 has broken down sharply below 50

Whats even more concering, is now there is very little support underneath until you get to 16/15c, 21 support is minor, along with 18c too.

After a good run the DOW is now facing head winds...

View attachment 21664

We could be seeing minor sub wave 4 down taking place, which usually hits the 38 fib , but could go lower, so minimum of a 100pt drop could be in play here, placing more pressure on the ASN sp.


As a result of all this, i decided to play safe and preserve capital by selling 75% of all holdings, will now wait to find a bottom before adding anymore.


Sorry i cant be more positive, its just the way i see it........for now.

As usual..........IMO, IMO, IMO

Not worried, on a personal level if it falls to those levels I have a reserve ready to jump in for more.

I'm not sure if management have changed their tactics recently, as I remember a fairly recent video with Bruce mentioning that there were plenty of announcements incoming, but to date only a small amount have landed. Having said that, he didn't specify over what time period it would be.

ASN seems to be in a bit of a bearish 'lull' at the moment, partially as a result of people believing there won't be much news till next quarter (just my take on it from observations), so they have invested their capital elsewhere for the meantime.

I do wonder if people were expecting not only a resource upgrade, but an annual production upgrade beyond the 13ktpa also...?

Overall, the fundamentals of ASN haven't changed, and I think this roller coaster ride (as it is currently) will continue until FID is made and construction begins.

As much as this is not realistic, I was really hoping they would incorporate Iodine production in stage 1, as the spot price for it isn't that much less than Lithium (approx. $60,000Usd pmt), and is in ppm quantities slightly less than Lithium. One can dream...

Market has been all over the shop lately, and as a LTH I have 'tuned out' somewhat (especially from the drivel over in HC ASN) for the meantime, as I feel the fireworks will start early/mid next year. Happy to keep chatting in here though, as the small group we have actually have something to say!

 

[Shivertown1]

I too have found it strange that all comms from the company have gone silent, hopefully there is a lot of hard bargaining going on behind the scenes, it has been hard too watch the sp drift lower but that is part of the game
HC is an absolute shitfight at the moment and does my head in, I am glad that I am not a new holder and trying to pick through the crap that is disseminated over there
It will be interesting to see what they do with the boron that is a waste product from the lithium removal, but all will be revealed eventually
Thanks again for the charts and interpretations Beisha
Have a good weekend all

 

[BEISHA]

Not worried, on a personal level if it falls to those levels I have a reserve ready to jump in for more.

I'm not sure if management have changed their tactics recently, as I remember a fairly recent video with Bruce mentioning that there were plenty of announcements incoming, but to date only a small amount have landed. Having said that, he didn't specify over what time period it would be.

ASN seems to be in a bit of a bearish 'lull' at the moment, partially as a result of people believing there won't be much news till next quarter (just my take on it from observations), so they have invested their capital elsewhere for the meantime.

I do wonder if people were expecting not only a resource upgrade, but an annual production upgrade beyond the 13ktpa also...?

Overall, the fundamentals of ASN haven't changed, and I think this roller coaster ride (as it is currently) will continue until FID is made and construction begins.

As much as this is not realistic, I was really hoping they would incorporate Iodine production in stage 1, as the spot price for it isn't that much less than Lithium (approx. $60,000Usd pmt), and is in ppm quantities slightly less than Lithium. One can dream...

Market has been all over the shop lately, and as a LTH I have 'tuned out' somewhat (especially from the drivel over in HC ASN) for the meantime, as I feel the fireworks will start early/mid next year. Happy to keep chatting in here though, as the small group we have actually have something to say!

I too have found it strange that all comms from the company have gone silent, hopefully there is a lot of hard bargaining going on behind the scenes, it has been hard too watch the sp drift lower but that is part of the game
HC is an absolute shitfight at the moment and does my head in, I am glad that I am not a new holder and trying to pick through the crap that is disseminated over there
It will be interesting to see what they do with the boron that is a waste product from the lithium removal, but all will be revealed eventually
Thanks again for the charts and interpretations Beisha
Have a good weekend all

Wecome back you two, yes i have been observing the ASN HC threads, it used to be very civil and informed but now it has unravelled to a LKE v ASN shit fight, some good posters getting sucked in..........yeah, i am just here to talk ASN, prefer the harmony this forum provides plus the freedom of speech......... am i pissed i missed the LKE run to $2.50 ?.........yes, but am i glad not to be a investor ?.........yes also, much prefer the ASN proven strategy to production, not one that is unproven plus a unhinged BOD.............nuff said on that topic.

I am perplexed , regards to the ASN sp performance, the CANE CREEK update was decent, but maybe the ASX expected more and was priced in ?

Despite the positive MACRO, SP just didnt react, which does lead me to believe that alot of punters believe that ASN has fired off all the good news for this year, with more updated jorcs arriving early next year plus offtakes i would imagine......plus BULL but, I could be wrong too, i certainly didnt expect the SUNRESIN deal ...

The problem is , if indeed no news until early next year , TA wise its very vulnerable.

You can see clearly that the current SP is in "no mans land ", little to no support where it currently lies, with very little support under neath either till it reaches the red arrow / height of sub wave 1 up. .......rising volume ( yellow arrow ) also a concern.

So the 2 scenarios that are in play now before i start accumulating once again is

a) If SP indeed drops as low as 18 - 15c ( unlikely but who knows ) then thats a no brainer..........good support lies there, little downside.

b) If SP breaks strong resistance at 28/ 32 to the upside ( green arrows )........change of trend.

Before closing this post, i think its important to remind you that i chart primarily thru the lens of a trader not a investor, altho i am both ..............please dont let that sway you from your investing strategies.....

I do make mistakes , like when i sold 50% of holdings around the blue bubble area and missed the upside into the 40s ( SUNRESIN DEAL ), then bought more around the pink bubble only to find that it was a fake out...........

So as you can imagine i wasnt prepared to make another mistake by holding alot and allowing SP to drop below the strong 50 fib support line and drift, so sold alot around the red bubble, now only holding 25% atm.

The life of a trader...............you win some, you lose some.


Lets see how next week plays out.


imo

 

[FluffyQuack]

Wecome back you two, yes i have been observing the ASN HC threads, it used to be very civil and informed but now it has unravelled to a LKE v ASN shit fight, some good posters getting sucked in..........yeah, i am just here to talk ASN, prefer the harmony this forum provides plus the freedom of speech......... am i pissed i missed the LKE run to $2.50 ?.........yes, but am i glad not to be a investor ?.........yes also, much prefer the ASN proven strategy to production, not one that is unproven plus a unhinged BOD.............nuff said on that topic.

I am perplexed , regards to the ASN sp performance, the CANE CREEK update was decent, but maybe the ASX expected more and was priced in ?

Despite the positive MACRO, SP just didnt react, which does lead me to believe that alot of punters believe that ASN has fired off all the good news for this year, with more updated jorcs arriving early next year plus offtakes i would imagine......plus BULL but, I could be wrong too, i certainly didnt expect the SUNRESIN deal ...

The problem is , if indeed no news until early next year , TA wise its very vulnerable.

View attachment 21813

You can see clearly that the current SP is in "no mans land ", little to no support where it currently lies, with very little support under neath either till it reaches the red arrow / height of sub wave 1 up. .......rising volume ( yellow arrow ) also a concern.

So the 2 scenarios that are in play now before i start accumulating once again is

a) If SP indeed drops as low as 18 - 15c ( unlikely but who knows ) then thats a no brainer..........good support lies there, little downside.

b) If SP breaks strong resistance at 28/ 32 to the upside ( green arrows )........change of trend.

Before closing this post, i think its important to remind you that i chart primarily thru the lens of a trader not a investor, altho i am both ..............please dont let that sway you from your investing strategies.....

I do make mistakes , like when i sold 50% of holdings around the blue bubble area and missed the upside into the 40s ( SUNRESIN DEAL ), then bought more around the pink bubble only to find that it was a fake out...........

So as you can imagine i wasnt prepared to make another mistake by holding alot and allowing SP to drop below the strong 50 fib support line and drift, so sold alot around the red bubble, now only holding 25% atm.

The life of a trader...............you win some, you lose some.


Lets see how next week plays out.


imo

All good Beisha, as mentioned in my last post, if it does get back into the teens, I'll be ready to load up some more. My strategy hasn't changed, and if no significant news drops till early next year, then all the better to save up some more funds.

I'm holding for the next 3-4 years at least, before considering selling any parcels.

I see the makings of another PLS here when stage 2 kicks in, let alone what happens with Yellow Cat/Bull

My only reservation, is that my early retirement from traditional work has been put back a year or two! (pending my inevitable division 1 lottery win )

 

[BEISHA]

All good Beisha, as mentioned in my last post, if it does get back into the teens, I'll be ready to load up some more. My strategy hasn't changed, and if no significant news drops till early next year, then all the better to save up some more funds.

I'm holding for the next 3-4 years at least, before considering selling any parcels.

I see the makings of another PLS here when stage 2 kicks in, let alone what happens with Yellow Cat/Bull

My only reservation, is that my early retirement from traditional work has been put back a year or two! (pending my inevitable division 1 lottery win )

I intend to be a investor for life with ASN , going to be a very profitable coy, i have given myself 2 more yrs of traditional work then retire and just trade full time.............hopefully ASN will be a producer by then , if so then they are going to be in the $1 - 3 range, much like where LTR is right now , thats just factoring in PARADOX, not the BULL or anything else.

The only difference between you and i regards to holding ASN long term , is i will ride the waves............heavily in, to minority holdings, depending on the wave........


If the SP does go back to the teens, then i will be heavily in again.......a fucking gift!


imo

 

[BEISHA]

Hi All

This is the full outline of ASN on the weekly chart, ( MAIN WAVE 1 up ) on left reaching a height of 32c back in the hype days of PARADOX , then the massive slump, with lithium on the nose at the time to hit 1.5c ( MAIN WAVE 2 down ), now we are observing (MAIN WAVE 3 up ) which isnt complete, as we need to see where sub wave 4 down might finish ( yellow arrow ), with sub wave 5 up to follow , which should exceed the ATH of 45c over time.

So the immediate question is , where will sub wave 4 down finish ?

Very little resistance where the brown line lies, thats where the gap finishes, failure to hold there then 61 fib support comes next , which matches the height of sub wave 1 up, which , if EW rules are respected , that could be the low of sub wave 4 down.

Hourly chart for ASN showing a base forming at 23.5, it would need to break 25c resistance ( green arrow ) for me to be convinced of a change of trend, RSI 14 bouncing of 30 lows, has dropped as low as 14, so no green flag yet, all EMAS showing no signs of flattening out ..........no green flag there either.

Next week will reveal more no doubt...........up or down ?


imo

 

[BEISHA]

Hi All

Still not seeing any signs of sub wave 4 down reversing atm...............that being said, SP has now filled the GAP @ 22.5 ( blue line ), could this be the impetus for a reversal ?

If SP doesnt reverse there, then no support until 17c / 15c .

Is RSI 14 flattening out ?

All the EMAs are pointing south still, so are the bollinger bands............bearish

Not much more to say , needs news of some kind to get the punters excited again........time is a killer atm.

Need to see SP break 25/27 ( possible reversal ) , before i start topping up , or if it hits rock bottom at 17/15 support zone.

Lets see what transpires next week.

imo

 

[Winenut]

Hi All

View attachment 23003

Still not seeing any signs of sub wave 4 down reversing atm...............that being said, SP has now filled the GAP @ 22.5 ( blue line ), could this be the impetus for a reversal ?

If SP doesnt reverse there, then no support until 17c / 15c .

Is RSI 14 flattening out ?

All the EMAs are pointing south still, so are the bollinger bands............bearish

Not much more to say , needs news of some kind to get the punters excited again........time is a killer atm.

Need to see SP break 25/27 ( possible reversal ) , before i start topping up , or if it hits rock bottom at 17/15 support zone.

Lets see what transpires next week.

imo

Thanks @BEISHA

Yeah the TA doesn't look great

I agree there's no catalyst for the reversal of the trend at the moment and it's definitely going to need some sort of positive announcement to push the SP north

If there's a lack of info forthecoming I will be keeping an eye on where the price ends up with a view to potentially topping up in that mid teen range

It's just wait and see for me ATM

 

[Winenut]

Looks like a downward staircase over the last month

Lower Highs and Lower Lows

I would suspect there is nothing to break the trend and those 15-17c support levels could come into play in the next couple of weeks

 

[FluffyQuack]

View attachment 23540

Looks like a downward staircase over the last month

Lower Highs and Lower Lows

I would suspect there is nothing to break the trend and those 15-17c support levels could come into play in the next couple of weeks

I think it might be a case of just tuning out for the rest of the year, enjoying the festive season, and if there are any good announcements then it is a bonus.

Everyone knows this stock is ridiculously over sold, and might dawdle around these prices during December.

Off takes, FEED Updates etc. will be the catalyst to get a rocket up under this thing again.

Whilst this SP level is a good price for more, I'm holding out should it ever enter the teens again. If it doesn't then that's great.

Was rather amused by the cock up announcement this morning

 

[BEISHA]

I think it might be a case of just tuning out for the rest of the year, enjoying the festive season, and if there are any good announcements then it is a bonus.

Everyone knows this stock is ridiculously over sold, and might dawdle around these prices during December.

Off takes, FEED Updates etc. will be the catalyst to get a rocket up under this thing again.

Whilst this SP level is a good price for more, I'm holding out should it ever enter the teens again. If it doesn't then that's great.

Was rather amused by the cock up announcement this morning

Hi Fluffy


Yes i agree with your post.............ASN crazy under valued and has many catalysts to put a rocket up its lethargic arse, MISSISIPIAN UNITS jorc upgrade is probably the next cab off the rank, which should be a beauty, offtakes possibly there after, but hopefully the BULL project gets a run early 2023 too.......

Regards to ASN SP , dawdling around at current prices, well i aint sure about that........

Lithium carbonate prices are dropping

Dow is turning to the down side too...............lithium sector overall is dropping ( check my TRADING OPPORTUNITIES thread )


Looking at the ASN WEEKLY chart......

Dropped another 10% for the week and still showing a clear break to the down side. Red flags include the following....

a) SP is below ALL the EMAs..........all the emas are pointing north, no sign yet that they are flattening out

b) RSI 14 has broken below 50

c) Absolutely no support until 17/ 15............a potential 15 - 25% drop still to come, unless news drops


Technically.........its still a SELL............even tho the FA is a screaming BUY.


Accordingly, i will continue to wait, before putting more funds in.


imo