AVZ Discussion 2022

Frank

Top 20
According to Dwayne Sparks’ post on X lithium is predicted to go up exponentially… hopefully we won’t be undersold in any negotiations

https://x.com/sparkes_dwayne


Dwayne Sparkes
@sparkes_dwayne

Haven’t really seen anyone’s take on CATL’s prospectus recently released (they are listing in Hong Kong), so thought I might give my quick thoughts on it! A lot can be gleamed from CATL’s prospectus.

Firstly, acknowledgement by the company that the profit margins have increased partly thanks to a reduction in LCE price.

Secondly, CATL’s growth estimates are enormous. The ESS estimates in particular are well above most analyst’s expectations. They have it at 300 GWh for 2024, 481GWh for 2025 & 1400 GWh for 2030… Let’s convert these numbers GWh to LCE tonnes to make it easier to understand and compare to demand tables. 1kWh = 0.75~0.8kg of LCE. 0.9kg of LCE per 1kWh used to be the number that analysts adopted, but batteries have become more efficient with time.

I've adopted 0.75kg off my latest data, but if anyone has a better number, please let me know. 1GWh = 1,000,000 kWh. 2025 – (481GWh * 1,000,000) *0.75kg = 360kt of LCE. 2030 - (1400GWh * 1,000,000) * 0.75kg = 1.05Mt of LCE. Compare this to the ESS numbers presented by UBS in 2024 for example (below screenshot). They had for 213kt of LCE 2025 and for 517kt of LCE 2030. So CATL’s numbers are almost double.

That’s a difference of 12~13 x the yearly output from a mine such as Kathleen Valley to put it into perspective. This is just ESS.

Another section of the prospectus that jumped out are the emerging applications. 390 GWh for this section by 2030. 390GWh x 0.75 = 292.5kt of LCE. ~3.5x greater than the 80 kt LCE UBS had listed for their "other Li-Ion demand" section. I’m not even going to bother doing the conversions on the 13 Twh by 2050 as it paints its own picture.

I think the above suggests the growth of lithium is exponential. I couldn’t tell you a commodity that has grown at this rate (and is expected to grow).

Can’t deny CATL is a fantastic company that is leading the way in battery tech. They do want to suppress the lithium price however and that makes sense as they are the world’s largest consumer of the stuff. I just don't see how it doesn't cause more harm than good and will lead to an explosion in lithium price (more detail on this on my other posts).

1740096694452.png

 
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More from Grok... I had to push the cunt to get this:

Strategic Overview
Your goal is to ensure AVZ retains control of the Manono deposit and delivers a return on investment. With the stock suspended, selling or diversifying isn’t an option—your leverage lies in amplifying AVZ’s legal battles, influencing DRC decision-makers, and rallying international support. Below are the key focus areas, with an emphasis on people to hire and lobbying efforts.

1. Legal Escalation
AVZ is already engaged in arbitration (e.g., ICC cases), and your funding can tip the scales.
  • Hire Top Arbitration Experts:
    • White & Case or Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan: These firms dominate international arbitration, especially in mining disputes. They can reinforce AVZ’s legal team, expedite rulings, or secure interim measures to block ownership changes by Cominiere or others.
    • Why Them? They’ve handled high-stakes cases in volatile jurisdictions and can outmaneuver opponents with superior resources.
    • Action: Allocate funds to retain them immediately—time is critical.
  • Additional Leverage:
    • Push for emergency injunctive relief under ICC rules to freeze any transactions involving Manono. This preserves AVZ’s position while disputes play out.

2. Lobbying and Political Influence
The DRC’s political landscape is complex, but your connections and capital can open doors.
  • Target the Minister of Mines:
    • Kizito Pakabomba, in office since 2024, oversees mining policy. His public stance on diversifying investments suggests openness to foreign players like AVZ. Direct lobbying could sway him.
    • Hire a Local Fixer: Engage a Kinshasa-based consultant with ties to Pakabomba or the Ministry of Mines. A name like Victor Kasongo (former deputy mines minister) could be a starting point—verify his current influence through local networks.
    • Action: Commission a discreet intermediary to arrange meetings or backchannel talks.
  • Lobbying Firms:
    • Africa Practice or Hakluyt & Company: These firms specialize in African political navigation and have networks spanning government and industry.
    • Why Them? They can influence DRC elites and counter rival lobbying (e.g., from Chinese firms).
    • Action: Contract them to develop a six-month influence campaign targeting DRC decision-makers.
  • Western Diplomatic Pressure:
    • Australian Embassy (Harare) and U.S. State Department (Africa Bureau): Pitch Manono as a strategic lithium asset for the West, countering China’s grip on DRC minerals.
    • Hire a DC-Based Firm: Covington & Burling or Akin Gump can lobby Western governments to press the DRC.
    • Action: Frame this as a geopolitical win—secure meetings with DFAT and State Department officials.

3. Local and Public Support
Winning over the Manono region strengthens AVZ’s foothold.
  • Community Engagement:
    • Hire a Local PR Firm: A Kinshasa-based outfit can manage projects (e.g., schools, roads) to build goodwill with locals.
    • Why? Community backing makes it politically harder for the DRC to oust AVZ.
    • Action: Fund visible initiatives and amplify them via local media.

4. Financial Reinforcement
If AVZ’s resources are strained, your group can keep them fighting.
  • Litigation Funding:
    • Burford Capital: A leader in financing legal battles without equity dilution.
    • Why Them? They ensure AVZ can sustain its ICC/ICSID cases.
    • Action: Negotiate a funding package tied to arbitration outcomes.

Key People and Entities to Hire
  • Legal: White & Case or Quinn Emanuel (arbitration firepower).
  • Lobbying (Africa): Africa Practice or Hakluyt & Company (DRC influence).
  • Lobbying (West): Covington & Burling or Akin Gump (diplomatic push).
  • Local Fixer: Kinshasa consultant with Pakabomba access (e.g., Victor Kasongo, pending verification).
  • PR: Kinshasa-based firm for community outreach.
  • Funding: Burford Capital for litigation support.

Why This Matters: The Market Cap Prize
The Manono deposit’s scale—potentially billions in market cap—is at stake. Lithium demand is skyrocketing, and success here could transform AVZ into a global player. Your efforts could unlock this value, dwarfing current investments.

Why It Works
  • Legal: DRC respects international arbitration; your funding can secure wins.
  • Lobbying: Pakabomba and DRC elites respond to pressure and incentives—your resources can deliver both.
  • Geopolitics: Western governments want lithium security; your framing aligns with their interests.
Focus your efforts here, deploy your connections, and hire these experts. The Manono deposit is yours to defend—and win.
Best regards,
[Your Strategic Ally]

This Victor Kasongo looks like an interesting character! :)

Although I liked @Remark first post from Grok, I don't think this latest one can be relied upon for accuracy. For a start, we know the Minister of Mines (Kizito Pakabomba) is corrupt and has openly lied about AVZ in the past, and as far as hiring a local fixer, we saw that Marius was not able to help despite being mates with Tshisekedi (as well as supposedly being experienced in espionage) and we've seen how Lukusa couldn't be trusted.

When it comes to discreet intermediaries, there have been several private messages sent to shareholders on X by so called discreet intermediaries claiming they could fix the problem if given a donation, and as far as lobbying political influence.... that could be regarded as the best Friday joke ever told on this thread.

Local and public support, well AVZ has already done that, but a few things that could be plastered across the internet on a weekly basis are The AVZ Minerals Story and The Sustainability Report (linked below) as well as information contained in other AVZ threads that few shareholders here bothered to look at.



As far as financial reinforcement, well that has been covered now and we can breathe a sigh of relief and be thankful that Nigel and DLA Piper kept us in the game through the unrelenting attacks over the last three years

@Doc I'm not coming back mate. I think this place has become like the crapper. The days are gone when the West Australian boys and I used to engage in lively disagreements, jokes weren't just saved for a Friday, John was counting the days in suspension, posting gifs of old men fighting, and organising a sausage sizzle and a run over the Brisbane bridge that included a topless Nells. Also gone are those days of @wombat74 and @Nellie17 slick salsa moves on the dance floor, unfettered pineappling, the infamous cock punch and the battle for the Mantle with top challenges coming from the likes of @Winenut and @TDITD (Winenuts and TITS). At least there was great camaraderie and fun in the early days, I wish all genuine shareholders the best for the future
 
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Ashlee

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Great to see we are still out selling the sizzle.
 

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TheCount

Regular
Although I liked @Remark first post from Grok, I don't think this latest one can be relied upon for accuracy. For a start, we know the Minister of Mines (Kizito Pakabomba) is corrupt and has openly lied about AVZ in the past, and as far as hiring a local fixer, we saw that Marius was not able to help despite being mates with Tshisekedi (as well as supposedly being experienced in espionage) and we've seen how Lukusa couldn't be trusted.

When it comes to discreet intermediaries, there have been several private messages sent to shareholders on X by so called discreet intermediaries claiming they could fix the problem if given a donation, and as far as lobbying political influence.... that could be regarded as the best Friday joke ever told on this forum.

Local and public support, well AVZ has already done that, but a few things that should be plastered across the internet on a weekly basis include The AVZ Minerals Story; The Sustainability Report and other information contained in the two threads linked below, along with other threads containing information



As far as financial reinforcement, well that has been covered now and we can breathe a sigh of relief and be thankful that Nigel and DLA Piper kept us in the game through the unrelenting attacks over the last three years

@Doc I'm not coming back mate. I think this place has become like the crapper. The days are gone when the West Australian boys and I used to engage in lively disagreements, jokes weren't just saved for a Friday, John was counting the days in suspension, posting gifs of two old men fighting, and organising a sausage sizzle and a run over the Brisbane bridge that included a topless Nells. Also gone are those days of @wombat74 and @Nellie17 slick salsa moves on the dance floor, unfettered pineappling, the infamous cock punch and the battle for the Mantle with top challenges coming from the likes of @Winenut and @TDITD (Winenuts and TITS). At least there was great camaraderie and fun in the early days, I wish all genuine shareholders the best for the future
Oh the memories . . . . . . . .

dick-punch.gif
 
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cruiser51

Top 20
A Test for Congo

The fall of Bukavu would not be just a military event. It would be a test for the DRC, a moment of truth for Félix Tshisekedi, and a stark reminder of the challenges facing this resource-rich but conflict-ridden country.

On the streets of Kinshasa and in the hills of South Kivu, the question would be the same: How far will this crisis go?

The answer will depend on the government’s ability to listen, act, and unite.
Because in a country as complex and fractured as the DRC, a spark can set everything ablaze.
And Bukavu could well be that spark.

A Congolese Resistance Fighter.

In other words, it is time for fat Felix to stop flying and fukking around, steer this kleptocratic society into a normal democracy without massive corruption, be a real leader and not a kid in a lolly shop.
Otherwise he will be another incompetent thieving leader strung up in front of his Palais de la Nation.

I hope they will be able to find a rope strong enough to get his fat body of the ground.
 
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wombat74

Top 20
Although I liked @Remark first post from Grok, I don't think this latest one can be relied upon for accuracy. For a start, we know the Minister of Mines (Kizito Pakabomba) is corrupt and has openly lied about AVZ in the past, and as far as hiring a local fixer, we saw that Marius was not able to help despite being mates with Tshisekedi (as well as supposedly being experienced in espionage) and we've seen how Lukusa couldn't be trusted.

When it comes to discreet intermediaries, there have been several private messages sent to shareholders on X by so called discreet intermediaries claiming they could fix the problem if given a donation, and as far as lobbying political influence.... that could be regarded as the best Friday joke ever told on this forum.

Local and public support, well AVZ has already done that, but a few things that should be plastered across the internet on a weekly basis include The AVZ Minerals Story; The Sustainability Report and other information contained in the two threads linked below, along with other threads containing information



As far as financial reinforcement, well that has been covered now and we can breathe a sigh of relief and be thankful that Nigel and DLA Piper kept us in the game through the unrelenting attacks over the last three years

@Doc I'm not coming back mate. I think this place has become like the crapper. The days are gone when the West Australian boys and I used to engage in lively disagreements, jokes weren't just saved for a Friday, John was counting the days in suspension, posting gifs of two old men fighting, and organising a sausage sizzle and a run over the Brisbane bridge that included a topless Nells. Also gone are those days of @wombat74 and @Nellie17 slick salsa moves on the dance floor, unfettered pineappling, the infamous cock punch and the battle for the Mantle with top challenges coming from the likes of @Winenut and @TDITD (Winenuts and TITS). At least there was great camaraderie and fun in the early days, I wish all genuine shareholders the best for the future
I've reduced these T-shirts to 1/2 price .

1740106607476.png
 
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Bin59

Regular

Hunter&Co’s Post​

View organization page for Hunter&Co
Hunter&Co
527 followers
17h Edited

The US Critical Mineral Roadshow is underway! Participants were warmly received at the Meridian International’s ‘Welcome to Washington’ event, where they had the opportunity to meet the incoming African diplomatic corps. Over the next seven days, in Washington DC and New York, our clients and partners from Australia and Africa will meet with various funds and financial institutions, USG funding programs, think tanks such as the United States Institute of Peace and Hudson, and the US Chamber of Commerce in a series of exclusive forums designed to foster collaboration and partnership in the critical minerals sector which is so important to the green energy transition and global supply chain balance.

We thank our partners and clients for supporting, sponsoring, and participating in these events, and look forward to achieving concrete outcomes for all concerned.

Concerto U.S. Chamber of Commerce United States Institute of Peace Hudson Institute Meridian International Center KoBold Metals Midas Minerals AVZ Minerals Limited International Graphite (ASX:IG6) Ionic Rare Earths Limited The Global Emerging Markets Group (GEM) Silverado Policy Accelerator Kendra Gaither Ellington Arnold Joseph Sany Betsy Cohen Joshua Meservey Puru Trivedi Katherine Boyce Maria Canellis Mark Calderwood Tim Harrison Brett Lynch Phil Hearse Ben Cohen Nigel Ferguson Alex Macdonald Zach Snyder Brandon Remington L. Gordon Flake Charles Barnett Sarah Whitten Jennifer Fendrick Mahnaz Khan Rob Strayer Nick Barquín Julian Pecquet Dominic Piper Andrew Hunter Ian Kortlang
  • Hunter&Co Concerto US Critical Minerlas Roadshow about sustainability in critical minerals supply
 
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RHyNO

Regular

Hunter&Co’s Post​

View organization page for Hunter&Co
Hunter&Co
527 followers
17h Edited

The US Critical Mineral Roadshow is underway! Participants were warmly received at the Meridian International’s ‘Welcome to Washington’ event, where they had the opportunity to meet the incoming African diplomatic corps. Over the next seven days, in Washington DC and New York, our clients and partners from Australia and Africa will meet with various funds and financial institutions, USG funding programs, think tanks such as the United States Institute of Peace and Hudson, and the US Chamber of Commerce in a series of exclusive forums designed to foster collaboration and partnership in the critical minerals sector which is so important to the green energy transition and global supply chain balance.

We thank our partners and clients for supporting, sponsoring, and participating in these events, and look forward to achieving concrete outcomes for all concerned.

Concerto U.S. Chamber of Commerce United States Institute of Peace Hudson Institute Meridian International Center KoBold Metals Midas Minerals AVZ Minerals Limited International Graphite (ASX:IG6) Ionic Rare Earths Limited The Global Emerging Markets Group (GEM) Silverado Policy Accelerator Kendra Gaither Ellington Arnold Joseph Sany Betsy Cohen Joshua Meservey Puru Trivedi Katherine Boyce Maria Canellis Mark Calderwood Tim Harrison Brett Lynch Phil Hearse Ben Cohen Nigel Ferguson Alex Macdonald Zach Snyder Brandon Remington L. Gordon Flake Charles Barnett Sarah Whitten Jennifer Fendrick Mahnaz Khan Rob Strayer Nick Barquín Julian Pecquet Dominic Piper Andrew Hunter Ian Kortlang
  • Hunter&Co Concerto US Critical Minerlas Roadshow about sustainability in critical minerals supply
Not like we owe aus government anything at all. Let some other smarter country snap us up for discount.
 
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Retrobyte

Hates a beer
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Pokok

Regular
Although I liked @Remark first post from Grok, I don't think this latest one can be relied upon for accuracy. For a start, we know the Minister of Mines (Kizito Pakabomba) is corrupt and has openly lied about AVZ in the past, and as far as hiring a local fixer, we saw that Marius was not able to help despite being mates with Tshisekedi (as well as supposedly being experienced in espionage) and we've seen how Lukusa couldn't be trusted.

When it comes to discreet intermediaries, there have been several private messages sent to shareholders on X by so called discreet intermediaries claiming they could fix the problem if given a donation, and as far as lobbying political influence.... that could be regarded as the best Friday joke ever told on this forum.

Local and public support, well AVZ has already done that, but a few things that should be plastered across the internet on a weekly basis include The AVZ Minerals Story; The Sustainability Report and other information contained in the two threads linked below, along with other threads containing information



As far as financial reinforcement, well that has been covered now and we can breathe a sigh of relief and be thankful that Nigel and DLA Piper kept us in the game through the unrelenting attacks over the last three years

@Doc I'm not coming back mate. I think this place has become like the crapper. The days are gone when the West Australian boys and I used to engage in lively disagreements, jokes weren't just saved for a Friday, John was counting the days in suspension, posting gifs of two old men fighting, and organising a sausage sizzle and a run over the Brisbane bridge that included a topless Nells. Also gone are those days of @wombat74 and @Nellie17 slick salsa moves on the dance floor, unfettered pineappling, the infamous cock punch and the battle for the Mantle with top challenges coming from the likes of @Winenut and @TDITD (Winenuts and TITS). At least there was great camaraderie and fun in the early days, I wish all genuine shareholders the best for the future
Wait on you have not heard my friday joke
What did the 3 legged dog say when he walked into the saloon
I'm looking for the man that shot my PAW
 
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DiscoDanNZ

Regular
Not like we owe aus government anything at all. Let some other smarter country snap us up for discount.
Quoting this for tax time when we all get our payouts.
 
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BEISHA

Top 20
Panic attacks can be sudden and overpowering.
People cannot always predict panic attacks, but making a plan of what to do when they happen can help a person feel more in control and make panic attacks easier to manage.

Panic attacks can cause physical and emotional symptoms, including:
  • sweating
  • rapid breathing
  • a racing heartbeat
  • feelings of fear and anxiety
  • intense and repetitive worrying
  • a sense of impending doom
Eating humongous amounts of popcorn does not help with panic attacks!
Was that another GROK analysis ?
 
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BEISHA

Top 20
More from Grok... I had to push the cunt to get this:

Strategic Overview
Your goal is to ensure AVZ retains control of the Manono deposit and delivers a return on investment. With the stock suspended, selling or diversifying isn’t an option—your leverage lies in amplifying AVZ’s legal battles, influencing DRC decision-makers, and rallying international support. Below are the key focus areas, with an emphasis on people to hire and lobbying efforts.

1. Legal Escalation
AVZ is already engaged in arbitration (e.g., ICC cases), and your funding can tip the scales.
  • Hire Top Arbitration Experts:
    • White & Case or Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan: These firms dominate international arbitration, especially in mining disputes. They can reinforce AVZ’s legal team, expedite rulings, or secure interim measures to block ownership changes by Cominiere or others.
    • Why Them? They’ve handled high-stakes cases in volatile jurisdictions and can outmaneuver opponents with superior resources.
    • Action: Allocate funds to retain them immediately—time is critical.
  • Additional Leverage:
    • Push for emergency injunctive relief under ICC rules to freeze any transactions involving Manono. This preserves AVZ’s position while disputes play out.

2. Lobbying and Political Influence
The DRC’s political landscape is complex, but your connections and capital can open doors.
  • Target the Minister of Mines:
    • Kizito Pakabomba, in office since 2024, oversees mining policy. His public stance on diversifying investments suggests openness to foreign players like AVZ. Direct lobbying could sway him.
    • Hire a Local Fixer: Engage a Kinshasa-based consultant with ties to Pakabomba or the Ministry of Mines. A name like Victor Kasongo (former deputy mines minister) could be a starting point—verify his current influence through local networks.
    • Action: Commission a discreet intermediary to arrange meetings or backchannel talks.
  • Lobbying Firms:
    • Africa Practice or Hakluyt & Company: These firms specialize in African political navigation and have networks spanning government and industry.
    • Why Them? They can influence DRC elites and counter rival lobbying (e.g., from Chinese firms).
    • Action: Contract them to develop a six-month influence campaign targeting DRC decision-makers.
  • Western Diplomatic Pressure:
    • Australian Embassy (Harare) and U.S. State Department (Africa Bureau): Pitch Manono as a strategic lithium asset for the West, countering China’s grip on DRC minerals.
    • Hire a DC-Based Firm: Covington & Burling or Akin Gump can lobby Western governments to press the DRC.
    • Action: Frame this as a geopolitical win—secure meetings with DFAT and State Department officials.

3. Local and Public Support
Winning over the Manono region strengthens AVZ’s foothold.
  • Community Engagement:
    • Hire a Local PR Firm: A Kinshasa-based outfit can manage projects (e.g., schools, roads) to build goodwill with locals.
    • Why? Community backing makes it politically harder for the DRC to oust AVZ.
    • Action: Fund visible initiatives and amplify them via local media.

4. Financial Reinforcement
If AVZ’s resources are strained, your group can keep them fighting.
  • Litigation Funding:
    • Burford Capital: A leader in financing legal battles without equity dilution.
    • Why Them? They ensure AVZ can sustain its ICC/ICSID cases.
    • Action: Negotiate a funding package tied to arbitration outcomes.

Key People and Entities to Hire
  • Legal: White & Case or Quinn Emanuel (arbitration firepower).
  • Lobbying (Africa): Africa Practice or Hakluyt & Company (DRC influence).
  • Lobbying (West): Covington & Burling or Akin Gump (diplomatic push).
  • Local Fixer: Kinshasa consultant with Pakabomba access (e.g., Victor Kasongo, pending verification).
  • PR: Kinshasa-based firm for community outreach.
  • Funding: Burford Capital for litigation support.

Why This Matters: The Market Cap Prize
The Manono deposit’s scale—potentially billions in market cap—is at stake. Lithium demand is skyrocketing, and success here could transform AVZ into a global player. Your efforts could unlock this value, dwarfing current investments.

Why It Works
  • Legal: DRC respects international arbitration; your funding can secure wins.
  • Lobbying: Pakabomba and DRC elites respond to pressure and incentives—your resources can deliver both.
  • Geopolitics: Western governments want lithium security; your framing aligns with their interests.
Focus your efforts here, deploy your connections, and hire these experts. The Manono deposit is yours to defend—and win.
Best regards,
[Your Strategic Ally]

This Victor Kasongo looks like an interesting character! :)
Mr GROK is a smart puter....I wonder what the below statement was meant to mean ?

The DRC’s political landscape is complex, but your connections and capital can open doors.
el-lleve-shake-hands.gif


Overall tho, i think AVZ have got the bases covered, with CATH doing our bidding.......supposedly.
 
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j.l

Regular
Mr GROK is a smart puter....I wonder what the below statement was meant to mean ?

The DRC’s political landscape is complex, but your connections and capital can open doors.
View attachment 77879
"CATH have agreed to work collaboratively to constructively engage with the DRC Government" 😂 (in ways that AVZ can't?)
 
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Azzler

Top 20
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cruiser51

Top 20
Some interesting weekend reading:

 
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Xerof

Have a Cigar 1975
"CATH have agreed to work collaboratively to constructively engage with the DRC Government" 😂 (in ways that AVZ can't?)
Better call Saul
 
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