Mouthpiecenomnom
Regular
Trump gave DRC to China on a platter. USA lost all soft power and influence in the country this week. Fucking idiot.
AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
yeah I get the feeling trump is ready to partner with putin and xi, and then fuck everyone else over. So not sure how this ends for drc and avz. I suppose my uneducated hope is that trump wants the minerals in the drc, in the same way he wants them in Ukraine. So maybe he says to drc gives us minerals or I'm going to fuck you over. if that happens then maybe there is a way forward for avz to get something out of this.
Bin59
Regular
x.com
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The Fight For Strategic Metals
By
Michael Rubin
Published
January 19, 2025
President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with attendees at the 2019 Student Action Summit hosted by Turning Point USA at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida. Image by Gage Skidmore.
Trump Must Back Australian Miners Against Chinese Strategic Metal Predation:
President-elect Donald Trump approaches his second term much differently than his first.
No longer is his goal disruption, both the Republican party and the U.S. bureaucracy more broadly. Whereas Trump achieved victories by getting NATO members to pony up their dues and achieving the Abraham Accords breakthrough, his greatest legacy might have been achieving bipartisan recognition that China was less a peer competitor whose cooperation might moderate and more a threat to the rules-based order.
Whereas the Supreme Court debates TikTok and China’s ambitions to conquer Taiwan if not other Pacific islands, strategic minerals fuels China’s drive. Here, the Democratic Republic of Congo is ground zero. If it were not for Congo’s endemic corruption, it could be the Qatar of Africa: Geologists and economists estimate that Congo’s mineral wealth could top $24 trillion. The country is the world’s leading producer of cobalt, a metal necessary to produce the batteries upon which most 21st century electronic depend and is also one of the world’s leading producers of copper. Add into the mix: uranium, gold, Germanium, lithium, diamonds, nickel, tantalum, and tin, crude oil, and coffee.
While U.S. companies are late to the game in Congo and have missed opportunities through their own passivity to expand their presence in the market, companies from U.S. allies like Australia have been fighting for the 21st century on the frontlines in Africa.
The Australian mining sector is huge. The skyscrapers of Perth shine with mining wealth, and the sector dominates West Australia’s economy and contributes to the country’s broader economy. Because China was one of the Australian mining largest markets, Australian politicians like former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd long frustrated their American counterparts with their permissiveness toward China.
Canberra, like Washington, may have been slow to gauge Beijing’s threat correctly, but many Australians have now learned the lesson. As China seeks to bribe and coerce Congo through illicit means to push Australian firms out of Congo’s mining sector, the Trump administration must defend Australia’s interests both diplomatically and with economic sanctions on Chinese firms. The logic of the Lobito corridor is to direct African trade westward into the Atlantic basin in order to better orient African trade away from China.
China, however, is fighting dirty to hamper Australian mining in Africa. Consider the case of AVZ Minerals, an Australian firm seeking to extract lithium and tin from Manono in southern Congo. Exploratory digging shows the lithium deposits in the region are huge.
Colloquially, AVZ hit the motherlode.
But Congolese corruption, abetted by the People’s Republic of China, seek to deny them their contractual right. AVZ now has International Court of Arbitration cases pending before involving La Congolaise d’Exploitation Minière, Jin Cheng Mining Company, and Dathomir Mining Resources SARLU, and International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes against the Democratic Republic of Congo itself.
While AVZ does not seek to marginalize China entirely—economically it makes no sense for them to do so—they seek balance between East and West. China, however, rejects balance in favor of its own maximalist approach. It has corrupted at least 13 Congolese media outlets. Ten of millions of dollars held in escrow disappeared, a theft in which Chinese officials appear complicit. The Congolese government proceeded to arrest journalists pursuing the story. A March 2022 forensic investigation based on AVZ and Congolese documents showed hard evidence of Chinese bribery. Chinese mining interests fund “non-governmental organizations” whose sole purpose appears to be to undermine Australia’s interest. Congolese public companies also sold shares to Chinese firms at fire sale prices in contravention of the law in a scheme to quadruple personal profits for Congolese officials up to and including the prime minister.
Zijin and the Congolese government’s strategy appears to be economic attrition, to steal and filibuster until AVZ has no choice but to suspend operations and give up. Zijin’s latest strategy appears to be to stop paying arbitration costs in the hope the court ceases its work.
AVZ is just one case among many that exposes how Chinese interests leverage Congo’s corruption to try to corner the market in strategic metals. The nature of the U.S. intelligence, national security, and diplomatic bureaucracy is compartmentalized. Analysts spent their careers focused on the weeds, never getting to the trees let alone spotting the forest.
While the National Security Council is supposed to coordinate, it seldom effectively pieces together disparate problems, especially when they span bureaucracies let alone continents.
Rather than just chalk up AVZ’s difficulties extracting lithium and tin from Congo, it is important to understand how Beijing takes a “whole of government” approach to harass and cheat competitors, and the general shenanigans in which they engage.
Americans increasingly throw around the phrase “fake news” to discredit anything with which they disagree, the Congo dispute shows how China wholesale purchases and promotes fake stories in pursuit of its commercial monopolies and strategic interests.
If Trump seeks to counter China, it is essential he recognize the battle will not only be in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, but also in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s forests and mines, international arbitration courts, and the boardrooms of Australia.
Incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio should direct diplomats in Kinshasa to spend more time in southern Congo where the action is. Rather than report on just another lunch with one cabinet minister or another, they should track their incomes and show up in various court proceedings to signal that Congo’s corruption will not proceed in the dark.
Australia might be on the frontline, but both the U.S. Departments of State and Commerce should signal that they see no even playing field; they will support allies and expect allied governments to support their own firms in the battle against Beijing’s interests.
If Beijing operates with such granularity, Trump, Rubio, and every other principal in the incoming U.S. administration must ask why the United States should not do so as well.
About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin
Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics. The author’s views are his own.
Bin59
Regular
According to Dwayne Sparks’ post on X lithium is predicted to go up exponentially… hopefully we won’t be undersold in any negotiations
x.com
https://x.com/sparkes_dwayne
Dwayne Sparkes
@sparkes_dwayne
Haven’t really seen anyone’s take on CATL’s prospectus recently released (they are listing in Hong Kong), so thought I might give my quick thoughts on it! A lot can be gleamed from CATL’s prospectus.
Firstly, acknowledgement by the company that the profit margins have increased partly thanks to a reduction in LCE price.
Secondly, CATL’s growth estimates are enormous. The ESS estimates in particular are well above most analyst’s expectations. They have it at 300 GWh for 2024, 481GWh for 2025 & 1400 GWh for 2030… Let’s convert these numbers GWh to LCE tonnes to make it easier to understand and compare to demand tables. 1kWh = 0.75~0.8kg of LCE. 0.9kg of LCE per 1kWh used to be the number that analysts adopted, but batteries have become more efficient with time.
I've adopted 0.75kg off my latest data, but if anyone has a better number, please let me know. 1GWh = 1,000,000 kWh. 2025 – (481GWh * 1,000,000) *0.75kg = 360kt of LCE. 2030 - (1400GWh * 1,000,000) * 0.75kg = 1.05Mt of LCE. Compare this to the ESS numbers presented by UBS in 2024 for example (below screenshot). They had for 213kt of LCE 2025 and for 517kt of LCE 2030. So CATL’s numbers are almost double.
That’s a difference of 12~13 x the yearly output from a mine such as Kathleen Valley to put it into perspective. This is just ESS.
Another section of the prospectus that jumped out are the emerging applications. 390 GWh for this section by 2030. 390GWh x 0.75 = 292.5kt of LCE. ~3.5x greater than the 80 kt LCE UBS had listed for their "other Li-Ion demand" section. I’m not even going to bother doing the conversions on the 13 Twh by 2050 as it paints its own picture.
I think the above suggests the growth of lithium is exponential. I couldn’t tell you a commodity that has grown at this rate (and is expected to grow).
Can’t deny CATL is a fantastic company that is leading the way in battery tech. They do want to suppress the lithium price however and that makes sense as they are the world’s largest consumer of the stuff. I just don't see how it doesn't cause more harm than good and will lead to an explosion in lithium price (more detail on this on my other posts).
Thanks for reading.
12:11 PM · Feb 17, 2025
·
45.3K
Views
x.com
x.com
Dwayne Sparkes
@sparkes_dwayne
Haven’t really seen anyone’s take on CATL’s prospectus recently released (they are listing in Hong Kong), so thought I might give my quick thoughts on it! A lot can be gleamed from CATL’s prospectus.
Firstly, acknowledgement by the company that the profit margins have increased partly thanks to a reduction in LCE price.
Secondly, CATL’s growth estimates are enormous. The ESS estimates in particular are well above most analyst’s expectations. They have it at 300 GWh for 2024, 481GWh for 2025 & 1400 GWh for 2030… Let’s convert these numbers GWh to LCE tonnes to make it easier to understand and compare to demand tables. 1kWh = 0.75~0.8kg of LCE. 0.9kg of LCE per 1kWh used to be the number that analysts adopted, but batteries have become more efficient with time.
I've adopted 0.75kg off my latest data, but if anyone has a better number, please let me know. 1GWh = 1,000,000 kWh. 2025 – (481GWh * 1,000,000) *0.75kg = 360kt of LCE. 2030 - (1400GWh * 1,000,000) * 0.75kg = 1.05Mt of LCE. Compare this to the ESS numbers presented by UBS in 2024 for example (below screenshot). They had for 213kt of LCE 2025 and for 517kt of LCE 2030. So CATL’s numbers are almost double.
That’s a difference of 12~13 x the yearly output from a mine such as Kathleen Valley to put it into perspective. This is just ESS.
Another section of the prospectus that jumped out are the emerging applications. 390 GWh for this section by 2030. 390GWh x 0.75 = 292.5kt of LCE. ~3.5x greater than the 80 kt LCE UBS had listed for their "other Li-Ion demand" section. I’m not even going to bother doing the conversions on the 13 Twh by 2050 as it paints its own picture.
I think the above suggests the growth of lithium is exponential. I couldn’t tell you a commodity that has grown at this rate (and is expected to grow).
Can’t deny CATL is a fantastic company that is leading the way in battery tech. They do want to suppress the lithium price however and that makes sense as they are the world’s largest consumer of the stuff. I just don't see how it doesn't cause more harm than good and will lead to an explosion in lithium price (more detail on this on my other posts).
Thanks for reading.
12:11 PM · Feb 17, 2025
·
45.3K
Views
Remark
Top 20
Grok's opinion as to whether Trump will help AVZ's position.
"It’s difficult to predict with certainty whether Donald Trump will directly intervene or influence the AVZ Minerals situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as it depends on his administration’s priorities, foreign policy approach, and the specific circumstances surrounding the issue. However, I can provide some context and reasoning to help frame the possibilities.
AVZ Minerals, an Australian company, has been entangled in a complex dispute over the Manono Lithium Project in the DRC, one of the world’s largest undeveloped lithium deposits. The situation involves legal battles, allegations of corruption, and competing claims from Chinese firms and other stakeholders, all set against the backdrop of the DRC’s mineral-rich but politically unstable eastern region. As of early 2025, the project remains stalled due to these conflicts, with the DRC government and various parties vying for control over this critical resource.
Trump’s approach to such a situation would likely be guided by his broader foreign policy and economic interests. Based on his recent actions and statements, he has shown a keen interest in securing critical minerals—like lithium, which is vital for batteries and renewable energy technologies—to reduce U.S. reliance on China. His negotiations with Ukraine over mineral rights in exchange for aid suggest he views resource access as a transactional opportunity. The DRC, with its vast reserves of cobalt, lithium, and other minerals, could fit into this framework.
However, several factors complicate any potential Trump involvement in the AVZ case:
In summary, while Trump’s resource-driven mindset could lead to actions that indirectly benefit AVZ, don’t expect him to champion their cause outright unless it fits a larger U.S. gain. The situation’s outcome will likely hinge more on DRC internal politics, China’s moves, and Australia’s diplomacy—unless Trump sees a clear win for his agenda. What do you think—do you see him taking a hands-on role here, or staying on the sidelines?"
"It’s difficult to predict with certainty whether Donald Trump will directly intervene or influence the AVZ Minerals situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as it depends on his administration’s priorities, foreign policy approach, and the specific circumstances surrounding the issue. However, I can provide some context and reasoning to help frame the possibilities.
AVZ Minerals, an Australian company, has been entangled in a complex dispute over the Manono Lithium Project in the DRC, one of the world’s largest undeveloped lithium deposits. The situation involves legal battles, allegations of corruption, and competing claims from Chinese firms and other stakeholders, all set against the backdrop of the DRC’s mineral-rich but politically unstable eastern region. As of early 2025, the project remains stalled due to these conflicts, with the DRC government and various parties vying for control over this critical resource.
Trump’s approach to such a situation would likely be guided by his broader foreign policy and economic interests. Based on his recent actions and statements, he has shown a keen interest in securing critical minerals—like lithium, which is vital for batteries and renewable energy technologies—to reduce U.S. reliance on China. His negotiations with Ukraine over mineral rights in exchange for aid suggest he views resource access as a transactional opportunity. The DRC, with its vast reserves of cobalt, lithium, and other minerals, could fit into this framework.
However, several factors complicate any potential Trump involvement in the AVZ case:
- U.S. Strategic Interests: Trump might prioritize securing mineral supply chains for American companies or allies over directly aiding an Australian firm like AVZ. If he sees the DRC’s resources as a way to counter China’s dominance in the region (Chinese firms like Zijin Mining are already involved in the Manono dispute), he could push for broader U.S. influence rather than focusing on AVZ specifically.
- DRC Conflict Dynamics: The ongoing conflict in eastern DRC, particularly with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels seizing key cities like Goma and Bukavu as of February 2025, creates a volatile environment. Trump’s administration might hesitate to dive into a messy regional conflict unless there’s a clear economic or geopolitical win. His comments calling the DRC situation a “very serious problem” without further elaboration suggest awareness but not yet a defined strategy.
- Transactional Approach: Trump’s foreign policy often hinges on “what’s in it for the U.S.” He could pressure the DRC government to resolve the AVZ dispute in favor of Western interests as part of a larger deal—perhaps tied to aid, security support, or sanctions relief—but only if it aligns with his America First agenda.
- Limited Direct Leverage: AVZ is an Australian company, not American, so Trump might leave it to Australia to lead diplomatic efforts unless U.S. firms (or his personal business interests) stand to gain. His administration could, however, use broader tools like trade policies or diplomatic pressure on the DRC to shift the situation indirectly.
In summary, while Trump’s resource-driven mindset could lead to actions that indirectly benefit AVZ, don’t expect him to champion their cause outright unless it fits a larger U.S. gain. The situation’s outcome will likely hinge more on DRC internal politics, China’s moves, and Australia’s diplomacy—unless Trump sees a clear win for his agenda. What do you think—do you see him taking a hands-on role here, or staying on the sidelines?"
Winenut
GO AVZ!!!!
"It’s difficult to predict with certainty"......ANYTHING that fucking Trump will do
Fucking loose cannon....really loose cannon
Isn't AVZ partnering with a Chinese Company ? From memory the only deals AVZ has cut ( investment /off takes / JV) has been with China . If the USA can wrangle something better then great . Otherwise it's always been AVZ/China as far as I can remember . I dare say if we got that ML 3 years ago we most probably would have been taken over by China .
No more playing golf for Trump .
This is a serious question , with all that is going on in the background why did you broach this subject and put more shit in people's head so, you are either a shit stirrer , know something we don't , or believe the rebels have the knowledge or the know how to run a mine and get it to market . I think you are full of shit , prove to me in what capacity they can achieve this ??
https://mines.cd/edito-la-division-de-congolais-favorise-le-pillage-des-ressources-naturelles/
They have to wing it.....if they want to safe their arses..so much publicity and on top pressure from M23..
Fuck me dead, I wouldn't like to sit in their shoes..
Fuck me dead, I wouldn't like to sit in their shoes..
Not suggesting they will dash for Manono. But they are expanding southward. More so every day.
Also, Reuters reporting that Burundi pulled out of the DRC (Burundi saying they haven’t). Their 10k worth of soldiers were far more effective a fighting force than most of the forces on the eastern front.
If true the DRC army would be left with even fewer allies in the field - something that we don’t want surely. I wish I could be as confident as you lot in dismissing these concerns. But the facts are suggesting otherwise. M23 is not contained and expanding rapidly. And I haven’t seen anything yet to suggest that they would stop.
Because it ain’t all rosy mate. The DRC cannot defend their territory. M23 have basically doubled their territorial control in the space of a month. Taken 1 huge city and another significant city too.
Read up on the 1st and 2nd Congo War. Then tell me if you think all these countries getting drawn into the DRC quagmire is going to end any differently?
Plenty of artisanal mining happens in Manono for Tin. It’s a rich area for it. It does have material value for rebel groups. That’s blatantly obvious
cruiser51
Top 20
Panic attacks can be sudden and overpowering.
Just me waiting for moneybags to have had
enough
People cannot always predict panic attacks, but making a plan of what to do when they happen can help a person feel more in control and make panic attacks easier to manage.
Panic attacks can cause physical and emotional symptoms, including:
- sweating
- rapid breathing
- a racing heartbeat
- feelings of fear and anxiety
- intense and repetitive worrying
- a sense of impending doom
Azzler
Top 20
More from Grok... I had to push the cunt to get this:
Strategic Overview
Your goal is to ensure AVZ retains control of the Manono deposit and delivers a return on investment. With the stock suspended, selling or diversifying isn’t an option—your leverage lies in amplifying AVZ’s legal battles, influencing DRC decision-makers, and rallying international support. Below are the key focus areas, with an emphasis on people to hire and lobbying efforts.
1. Legal Escalation
AVZ is already engaged in arbitration (e.g., ICC cases), and your funding can tip the scales.
2. Lobbying and Political Influence
The DRC’s political landscape is complex, but your connections and capital can open doors.
3. Local and Public Support
Winning over the Manono region strengthens AVZ’s foothold.
4. Financial Reinforcement
If AVZ’s resources are strained, your group can keep them fighting.
Key People and Entities to Hire
Why This Matters: The Market Cap Prize
The Manono deposit’s scale—potentially billions in market cap—is at stake. Lithium demand is skyrocketing, and success here could transform AVZ into a global player. Your efforts could unlock this value, dwarfing current investments.
Why It Works
Best regards,
[Your Strategic Ally]
This Victor Kasongo looks like an interesting character!
Strategic Overview
Your goal is to ensure AVZ retains control of the Manono deposit and delivers a return on investment. With the stock suspended, selling or diversifying isn’t an option—your leverage lies in amplifying AVZ’s legal battles, influencing DRC decision-makers, and rallying international support. Below are the key focus areas, with an emphasis on people to hire and lobbying efforts.
1. Legal Escalation
AVZ is already engaged in arbitration (e.g., ICC cases), and your funding can tip the scales.
- Hire Top Arbitration Experts:
- White & Case or Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan: These firms dominate international arbitration, especially in mining disputes. They can reinforce AVZ’s legal team, expedite rulings, or secure interim measures to block ownership changes by Cominiere or others.
- Why Them? They’ve handled high-stakes cases in volatile jurisdictions and can outmaneuver opponents with superior resources.
- Action: Allocate funds to retain them immediately—time is critical.
- Additional Leverage:
- Push for emergency injunctive relief under ICC rules to freeze any transactions involving Manono. This preserves AVZ’s position while disputes play out.
2. Lobbying and Political Influence
The DRC’s political landscape is complex, but your connections and capital can open doors.
- Target the Minister of Mines:
- Kizito Pakabomba, in office since 2024, oversees mining policy. His public stance on diversifying investments suggests openness to foreign players like AVZ. Direct lobbying could sway him.
- Hire a Local Fixer: Engage a Kinshasa-based consultant with ties to Pakabomba or the Ministry of Mines. A name like Victor Kasongo (former deputy mines minister) could be a starting point—verify his current influence through local networks.
- Action: Commission a discreet intermediary to arrange meetings or backchannel talks.
- Lobbying Firms:
- Africa Practice or Hakluyt & Company: These firms specialize in African political navigation and have networks spanning government and industry.
- Why Them? They can influence DRC elites and counter rival lobbying (e.g., from Chinese firms).
- Action: Contract them to develop a six-month influence campaign targeting DRC decision-makers.
- Western Diplomatic Pressure:
- Australian Embassy (Harare) and U.S. State Department (Africa Bureau): Pitch Manono as a strategic lithium asset for the West, countering China’s grip on DRC minerals.
- Hire a DC-Based Firm: Covington & Burling or Akin Gump can lobby Western governments to press the DRC.
- Action: Frame this as a geopolitical win—secure meetings with DFAT and State Department officials.
3. Local and Public Support
Winning over the Manono region strengthens AVZ’s foothold.
- Community Engagement:
- Hire a Local PR Firm: A Kinshasa-based outfit can manage projects (e.g., schools, roads) to build goodwill with locals.
- Why? Community backing makes it politically harder for the DRC to oust AVZ.
- Action: Fund visible initiatives and amplify them via local media.
4. Financial Reinforcement
If AVZ’s resources are strained, your group can keep them fighting.
- Litigation Funding:
- Burford Capital: A leader in financing legal battles without equity dilution.
- Why Them? They ensure AVZ can sustain its ICC/ICSID cases.
- Action: Negotiate a funding package tied to arbitration outcomes.
Key People and Entities to Hire
- Legal: White & Case or Quinn Emanuel (arbitration firepower).
- Lobbying (Africa): Africa Practice or Hakluyt & Company (DRC influence).
- Lobbying (West): Covington & Burling or Akin Gump (diplomatic push).
- Local Fixer: Kinshasa consultant with Pakabomba access (e.g., Victor Kasongo, pending verification).
- PR: Kinshasa-based firm for community outreach.
- Funding: Burford Capital for litigation support.
Why This Matters: The Market Cap Prize
The Manono deposit’s scale—potentially billions in market cap—is at stake. Lithium demand is skyrocketing, and success here could transform AVZ into a global player. Your efforts could unlock this value, dwarfing current investments.
Why It Works
- Legal: DRC respects international arbitration; your funding can secure wins.
- Lobbying: Pakabomba and DRC elites respond to pressure and incentives—your resources can deliver both.
- Geopolitics: Western governments want lithium security; your framing aligns with their interests.
Best regards,
[Your Strategic Ally]
This Victor Kasongo looks like an interesting character!
Not really sure that blatant racism against the citizens of the country we want to operate in is helpful.
Wait, I am sure:
It's fking stupid and wrong, and DEFINITELY doesn't do any good for AVZ.
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