Do you have as much trouble reading and understanding English as you do when trying to write it?IM hearing they are cleaning up the X forum, getting rid off all the TROLLS is this TRUE...IMO
Other FORUM need to follow suit..IMO
So many D H kicking around moving from one FORUM to the OTHER..imo...
AVZ has still not secured a DEAL by the looks, NO AVZ ANN yet...imo
US have their foot in the door with the DRC...imo...!
Noted, sorry everyone.Hey, cobber, please don’t quote IT in responses to his crap posts, it leaves a shitstain on the page
TIA
Hi Obe great post . As usual the devil is in the detail. I like most others assume that the issuing of the mining licence automatically triggers the CATL deal but as you pointed out that is not necessarily the caseThe CATL event isn’t just based on award of a mining license to Dathcom by the DRC government, there’s also the required signing of a (CDA) collaboration development agreement & other associated terms which they didn’t expand on ; but the CDA contains subjects such as
*Project Development Framework - conditions around timelines, milestones & infrastructure requirements. ( there was chatter around this one before where unrealistic timeframes could be included putting pressure on us & considered incomplete by some giving rise to disputes)
*Government Support - terms associated with DRC government in providing necessary permits, licenses, and infrastructure support.provisions for regulatory approvals, tax incentives, or exemptions under the DRC Mining Code , ensuring a stable legal environment for investment.
*Economic and Social Benefits - DRC royalties & $$ uplift to local communities as well as stuff like social obligations e.g. community development programs, environmental protections.
*Ownership and Equity Adjustments - this one reflects the ownership structure of Dathcom, with AVZ holding 75% and Cominière 25%. formalizing of Cominière’s agreement to cede 10% of its stake to the DRC government upon license issuance, reducing its share to 15%.
The last one is a bit of a hand break I’d say as it does open up Cominieres decision of flogging the north to Z based on percentages that weren’t theirs to deal with.
What’s the chances that DRC government signitures are going to land in all the agreed term boxes as agreed between AVZ and CATL… highly unlikely I’d say
Good post this morning CobberChina will not/cannot offer the protection from M23 & Rwanda that the DRC so urgently need - the protection Felix was so desperate for when he first went cap in hand to the Don.
The DRC’s new reality is one way or another, Roche Dure will end up in US or US-aligned hands. The US are 3 parts through concluding the ‘security’ aspect of the minerals for security deal - all hell will rain down on Felix if he plays silly buggers & welches on the ‘minerals’ aspect of the deal (Roche Dure being the obvious first cab off the rank & pivotal to control of world lithium supply).
@JNRB, I agree with your thinking that the Roche Dure transfer should now be a simple fix. The DRC’s Sergeant Schultz approach to Zijin’s ‘Hand of God’ acquisition & nek minute exploitation of the CDL tenement tells me that red tape in the DRC is not an issue if the situation demands it.
With so many billions sitting on the sidelines while we await the inevitable outcome, the dragging out of the solution is agonising - Kobold want Roche Dure, Felix wants them to have it, AVZ want Kobold to have it, but the asset transfer is being held up for the sake of (in the scheme of things) a measly few billion dollars. Whoever needs to chip in - Zijin/Kobold/Rio/US govt/DRC (in-kind favours to US) - just get the fair cash settlement to AVZ together & get it done already! AVZ walks, DRC & someone else get rich together, embarrassment at ICC/ICSID goes away. Sure, DRC’s reputation is historically shot as far as investors ploughing big money into the place goes, but there’s a big big win to be had by someone here that has turned rolled gold now the Don is on the scene. Kobold demanding Felix now resolve the AVZ problem, when the problem can seemingly be sorted yesterday with a US$3-10billion AVZ payout, has the whiff of Kobold running out of ways to scrape together the proper coin needed.
As an aside, Xi’s world plan to take the big dog mantle from the US hinges on the geopolitical influence they can swing from belt & road/resource dominance - China has been eerily silent while the Don walks all over them in the DRC.
Get where you’re coming from Strongman, but I’ve never put anyone on ignore - I’ve got a pretty solid tolerance for dickheads & am generally happy enough to scroll through. Trolls peddling half-truths/lies & putting up woeful analyses is another thing.Good post this morning Cobber
My advice re the shit stain is just put it on ignore
I did that both here and on the crapper a few months ago and now it no longer exists
According to Africa Security Analysis, a Swedish company that provides risk analysis and security updates on Africa, the situation in eastern DRC is highly volatile and unpredictable. Recent events indicate a growing crisis that threatens the stability of the Great Lakes region. Lacking effective containment of all the armed players and alliances and constructive political dialogue by all parties, the area might be facing a prolonged period of violence and eventual fragmentation.Nice to see everyone has some sort of SPECULATION to keep themselves HAPPY...imo
Nothing has CHANGED for AVZ S H...imo
Maybe for MAGA supporters..imo
Reckon you are spot on Strongman . The whole idea was for Kobold to pay AVZ to drop Arbitration and walk away . Thought peanuts $$$ would get it done . Now they are throwing a hissy fit and throwing it back to the DRC gov to sort out in the hope AVZ will cave in and accept their offer . Yanks need to wake up and make an acceptable offer . IMOHi Obe great post . As usual the devil is in the detail. I like most others assume that the issuing of the mining licence automatically triggers the CATL deal but as you pointed out that is not necessarily the case
My thoughts are however that given the number of things wrong with how we got to the current situation ie Com / Zijin with mining licence for 152275 and Com as permit holders of the remainder ( south ) of 13359 it would be almost impossible for DRC Govt to fix this mess and issue the mining licence to Dathcom without implicating multiple ministers, senior govt admin and the judiciary etc with serious fraud and bribery. Also they would have Zijin hot on their tail ...a case of out of the frying pan and into the fire
Much cleaner for them to just issue the mining licence to Kobold for 13359 ( currently in Comminieres name ) via an executive order from Felix. I assume the agreement between Kobold and DRC covers all this including the fact Kobold will compensate us for cancelling all ICC and ICSID cases against DRC.
This brings us back to the current situation with AVZ negotiating with Kobold for "Fair" compensation.
For me it is hard to see how this can progress any other way
I wonder if the rumoured DRC finder's/facilitation fee played into this outcome...Reckon you are spot on Strongman . The whole idea was for Kobold to pay AVZ to drop Arbitration and walk away . Thought peanuts $$$ would get it done . Now they are throwing a hissy fit and throwing it back to the DRC gov to sort out in the hope AVZ will cave in and accept their offer . Yanks need to wake up and make an acceptable offer . IMO
what is this one? It doesn’t ring a bell for me. Cheers.I wonder if the rumoured DRC finder's/facilitation fee played into this outcome...
I was referring to some comment on here from a few weeks ago about the DRC asking Kobold for some kind of fee as part of the agreement. No idea if true of course.what is this one? It doesn’t ring a bell for me. Cheers.
Nice one Kikihttps://x.com/KiengeKki/status/1962124391388483722
The JV Manono #Lithium , a joint venture born illegally? By Kiki #Kienge The #Manono deposit, located in the Democratic Republic of Congo, is arousing global interests and a cold war between the USA and China over the monopoly of strategic African minerals. However, behind the official statements, considerable legal uncertainty is weakening the recent joint venture Manono Lithium SAS, founded between the Chinese #Zijin and the state-owned company #COMINIERE . Dathcom cancelled, Cominière restored to 100% In 2023, Kinshasa terminated the joint venture #Dathcom Mining, which brought together $AVZ Minerals (75 %) , Cominière (25 %) and, subsequently, Zijin (15% bought from Cominière). Consequence: permit 13359, covering the gigantic Manono lithium-tantalum deposit, was reassigned 100% to Cominière. Selective recognition of rights. The Congolese state then adopts a paradoxical attitude: It recognizes as valid the sale of 15% of Dathcom to Zijin for $33.44 million, an amount reallocated as a contribution to the new JV Manono Lithium SAS, when the IGF (General Inspectorate of Finance), a body directly linked to the presidency, had deemed this sale illegal. Dathcom cancelled, Cominière restored to 100% In 2023, Kinshasa terminated the Dathcom Mining joint venture, which brought together AVZ Minerals (75 %) , Cominière (25 %) and, subsequently, Zijin (15% acquired from Cominière). Consequence: permit 13359, covering the gigantic Manono lithium-tantalum deposit, was reassigned 100% to Cominière. But he denies the 75% stake held by AVZ, erasing with a stroke of the pen the financial contributions, contractual rights and international commitments of the Australian company. A violation of corporate and contract law. Legally, this position is untenable: In mining and corporate law, all shares in a cancelled joint venture must be treated equally. Recognizing the sale of Zijin but not the 75% of AVZ amounts to applying an "à la carte" rule, contrary to the principles of contract law and the principle of shareholder equality. Furthermore, the DRC is a party to several international investment protection conventions. By marginalizing AVZ without compensation, the state exposes itself to arbitration sanctions and potentially massive damages. The State is arbitrator and stakeholder. This dual treatment reflects a fundamental ambiguity: On the one hand, Kinshasa is seeking to present itself as the sovereign arbiter, regaining control of a project deemed strategic. On the other hand, the State acts as an interested stakeholder, securing Zijin's financial contributions ($33.44 million + $70 million in "humanitarian" commitments, allocated to a private NGO belonging to a member of the UDPS and a Cominière executive.), while marginalizing AVZ, which is now relegated to international arbitration. A joint venture built on an illegal basis. This contradiction has a major consequence: The very legality of Manono Lithium SAS is compromised. By integrating Zijin's contribution (USD 33,440,000) but excluding AVZ's rights, the JV is built on a legal imbalance. In the eyes of many legal and mining experts, this makes it an illegal joint venture, likely to be invalidated by Congolese courts or by an international arbitrator. Between political pragmatism and legal uncertainty Why is Kinshasa acting like this? Out of political and financial pragmatism: to preserve Zijin's funds and secure a solid Chinese partner. But at the cost of total legal uncertainty, which endangers the viability of the project and the country's image as an investment destination. Regarding this sum of USD 33,440,000 million in particular, a significant proportion did not reach the state coffers. The portion received by the state also remains unclear in terms of management and is said to be almost non-existent. KoBold! The US company in talks with Australia's AVZ could benefit further by taking control of AVZ's 75% stake in Dathcom, thus protecting itself against possible future legal disputes over the Manono hard-rock lithium deposit. By legally owning AVZ's shares, KoBold would benefit from ownership of 75% of the original Permit 13359. This includes the northern portion (PE15775) of the deposit currently held by Manono Lithium, which would represent a significant advantage for the United States. Conclusion By validating Zijin's payment while denying AVZ's 75%, the Congolese state is creating an illegality in fact and in law. The new Manono Lithium JV, far from being a solid foundation for exploiting one of the largest lithium deposits in the world, risks being a shaky structure, threatened by arbitration and litigation. A state ambiguity that could cost the DRC dearly, at a time when global competition for critical minerals has never been so intense.
Dont the US or the YANKS run the ICSID court matters...imoReckon you are spot on Strongman . The whole idea was for Kobold to pay AVZ to drop Arbitration and walk away . Thought peanuts $$$ would get it done . Now they are throwing a hissy fit and throwing it back to the DRC gov to sort out in the hope AVZ will cave in and accept their offer . Yanks need to wake up and make an acceptable offer . IMO
'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' International arbitration.'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''Now how will they ENFORCE any decisions by ABARTRATION
DRC SUMPREME COURTS...!...LMAO
SANCTIONS>>>!LMAO
ENFORCEMENT is more than JUST a word...imo