With the mining licence in place and sovereign risk neutralised by US backing, the floor valuation for Roche Dure is USD $6–8 billion, based on recent comparable transactions.
At that level, AVZ shareholders walk away satisfied, and the buyer — whether it’s Kobold or someone else — secures an asset that will generate extraordinary long-term returns.
If there’s competitive tension or multiple bidders, valuations could easily push toward USD $10–12 billion. This isn’t wishful thinking — the resource scale, global lithium demand, and geopolitical backing are all undeniable.
Frankly, anyone floating numbers below $6B either hasn’t done the work or is pushing an agenda. And if shareholders are forced into accepting a lowball outcome after years of obstruction and delay, a class action is inevitable — and no one sees a cent until that’s resolved.
It’s also critical that any distribution of proceeds to shareholders is executed via a share buyback or liquidation, not as a dividend or income-style return. If AVZ structures it in a way that denies shareholders access to the 50% CGT discount, it will absolutely trigger further legal action.
As for Jens now appearing to talk down the value of the project — I genuinely don’t understand his shift in position. He previously talked it up, so the change is confusing. It seems likely he was receiving information from someone on the ground in the DRC, and that pipeline may have dried up.
That said, if shareholders are materially harmed and it’s shown that public commentary influenced sentiment or misled investors, he could face legal consequences as well. No one is immune from scrutiny if this goes south.