AVZ Discussion 2022

[cruiser51]

Azzler,

In my opinion I believe you are completely wrong - Zijin have no case to bring in my opinion against the DRC unless you are saying that bribing government officials is legal. The money that was paid as I understand it never found its way into DRC Treasury and it was in breach of the Joint Venture Agreement. In my opinion Zijin have not followed the mining code so I dont see the legal argument that they can bring - the ICC and ICSID I would suggest would throw out any case and simply laugh - thinking that one of their own are simply trying to prank them.

I cant see any claim that Zijin would have and no doubt they would just embarrass themselves - they would simply be better off to fade into the sunset and try and take advantage of another 3rd world country.

The DRC would not have a problem in strengthening their own position by calling out fraud and prosecuting any government officials that had compromised themselves and received benefits.

Nope, Dathcom is entitled to the full tenement and its not a difficult argument to prosecute.

But after 3 red wines what would I know.

But hey just my thoughts.

SilentOne

Is that 3 bottles?

 

[cruiser51]

Anyone thinking Felix or his representatives weren't involved in these negotiations is kidding themselves.

I believe instructions have been given to Zijin by DRC, although what they could be is anyone's guess.

Further, the tone of the announcement leads me to believe we're closer to seeing an end to this saga, sooner than most people think.

A fantastic announcement and result.

Is that why Zijin told Bloomberg that they were going to start mining in 12 months time?

It is not the language of a mob which is about to fuck off, is it?

I would say Zijin hasn't started fighting yet, just having a bit of fun and is rolling it sleeves up for a full assault.
They are thinking in their fucked up mind 'enough of being Mr. Nice guy'.

I'm waiting for Tommy the twat to rock up with his banana boatman mate and his lacky shano, the clown, with the 10,000 personalities who talks to himself on the toilet, while having a crap.

 

[JasonM]

Nigel was asked directly the question at the 22 agm, “have we given up the north” his reply was that we have not. When I invested it was for 13359 , all of it. Nothing has changed is my understanding

yep true but being pragmatic, they'll do a deal. zijin will pay some penalties but they'll get the north in the end imo. I'd love for them to get fucked over so hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[Flekman11]

The 30.5% to me is the interesting part. It’s a very exact figure. The old 24% made a lot of sense. This doesn’t.

Based on the Aus dollar in 21 vs it now, CATH are paying the EXACT same price per 1% in AUD for a slice. But why 30.5%?

 

[RHyNO]

I mean seriously, look at the latest headlines? If we are serious about ever relisting, we need an actual PR strategy - starting TODAY.

View attachment 75692

The average punter out of the loop, just reading the headlines would think Zijin is about to start mining and AVZ has been caught bribing officials, whereas the opposite is much closer to reality.

I don't work directly in PR, but adjacent - it's very frustrating to watch the selective stories in the media will pickup in a nano-second while we don't seem to be on the front foot with positive news.

Don’t sweat it they will get to it. Strong moves at the appropriate moment. Truth always wins out.

 

[SilentOne]

yep true but being pragmatic, they'll do a deal. zijin will pay some penalties but they'll get the north in the end imo. I'd love for them to get fucked over so hopefully I'm wrong.

Jason,

Thats not being pragmatic its being defeatist - never give into a bully.

Nigel has managed to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he now has the money to go the long haul - lets see what Nigel has planned next. Its not a difficult case to argue though it has been long and drawn out (and painfully for me personally).

Also if you give into a bully you weaken your hand and they will want more and more concessions - you dont want Sin Bin anywhere near the full tenement of Dathcom or any power generation.

Regards,

SilentOne

 

[Flekman11]

Jason,

Thats not being pragmatic its being defeatist - never give into a bully.

Nigel has managed to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he now has the money to go the long haul - lets see what Nigel has planned next. Its not a difficult case to argue though it has been long and drawn out (and painfully for me personally).

Also if you give into a bully you weaken your hand and they will want more and more concessions - you dont want Sin Bin anywhere near the full tenement of Dathcom or any power generation.

Regards,

SilentOne

Right you are.

Positive leverage is achieved by having something that someone else needs more than you. At that point you hold the cards. I feel Nigel has done exactly that beautifully.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

The 30.5% to me is the interesting part. It’s a very exact figure. The old 24% made a lot of sense. This doesn’t.

Based on the Aus dollar in 21 vs it now, CATH are paying the EXACT same price per 1% in AUD for a slice. But why 30.5%?

It was probably a bartering process. Cath probably wanted 40% and AVZ said 25% and back and forth and eventually agreed to 30.5%

 

[cruiser51]

The 30.5% to me is the interesting part. It’s a very exact figure. The old 24% made a lot of sense. This doesn’t.

Based on the Aus dollar in 21 vs it now, CATH are paying the EXACT same price per 1% in AUD for a slice. But why 30.5%?

24% of 75% = 18%

30.5% of 60% = 18.3%

Just a thought

 

[Largus Averta]

I don't think we should be giving up anything within a km or 3 of our last drill bit to the north. We did the work. If they want to argue we haven't "explored" an area, then they got no grounds.

 

[Largus Averta]

I don't think we should be giving up anything within a km or 3 of our last drill bit to the north. We did the work. If they want to argue we haven't "explored" an area, then they got no grounds.

Actually, fuck that. I forgot for a second. Fuck Zigin.

 

[BenGriffo]

24% of 75% = 18%

30.5% of 60% = 18.3%

Just a thought

I think it's suspiciously close to the value of half our last traded market cap.

 

[Flekman11]

24% of 75% = 18%

30.5% of 60% = 18.3%

Just a thought

Yeah maybe.

But clearly one left Dathcom with 51%. The other?

Something is in this.

 

[cruiser51]

Actually, fuck that. I forgot for a second. Fuck Zigin.

that's my boy!

 

[Dazmac66]

Still think zijin should have to purchase the North, cunts

The reason we are in this rat-trap begging for funding stems from drilling the north to satisfy the DRC MINING CODE. How have Zijin in any way followed the mining code? Take emotion out of the decision making process, follow the law.

Haven't posted for a few days so all I can say is - Yeeeeww! Small breaching whale.

Any fishos out there - nailed two grassy sweetlip over 4 kg in 10 minutes yesterday. Will never happen again. Must be a sign!!

 

[JNRB]

I'm still curious as to why CATH now taking a stake now in GLH instead of Dathcom.
Some smarter cookies than me have done the math and worked out that they're valuing it about the same as previous agreement (thanks @Flekman11) so why the change?

My purely speculating:

It aligns their interests more directly to ours. Their slice of the pie is no longer proportional to Dathcom as a whole.
Their chunk is directly proportional to our chunk.
Not just of the tenement, but now also of ownership. That wasn't the case when they were taking a stake in Dathcom directly.

So they are incentivised to fight not just to make sure Dathcom retains as much of the tenement as possible (ie all of it - fuk you zijin and celestin) AND fight to make sure that AVZ retain as much ownership of it as possible (ie that extra 15% - fuk you zijin and celestin)


Some further speculation albeit I don't like it:
It ensures that there will be no concerns about there not being a clear majority holder of Dathcom (apparently DRC wants there to be a >50% owner of mining projects). This shouldn't be a problem for us - but it does leave a little wiggle room if we decided to let someone else buy a stake in the project down the line (at say $12/share ).

 

[Schnitzelfresser]

GLH is owned by AVZ. Dathcom by AVZ and Cominiere. Guess both parties need to agree to include someone new and Cominiere wont be willing to do so.

My guess

 

[Hudnut]

I'm still curious as to why CATH now taking a stake now in GLH instead of Dathcom.

They can't. No-one is going to sell it to them.

Dathcom is the JV that is/owns the Manono project.

AVZ's interest in Manono is via GLH's stake in Dathcom, via AVZI.
GLH is a wholely owned subsidiary of AVZI.

Some of the ownership disputes are things like Cominiere selling 15% interest in the Dathcom JV to Dathomir.
You'd need all JV parties to agree, and they are all fighting.

When we say AVZ owns 75% of Dathcom, we mean GLH's 60% interest, plus the 15% that was also sold to Dathomir (Cong) in violation of our ROFR.

For CATH to get a stake directly in Dathcom, they'd have to buy it from Cominiere, Dathomir, or GLH. That would immediately start a shitfight, since thoses parties are currently at ICC/ICSID arguing over who owns what in Dathcom re: the ROFR and selling 15% to Dathomir. Also remembering that Cominiere is trying to dissolve the Dathcom JV.

AVZ would never sell any of GLH's stake in Dathcom JV to CATL. It would give them a direct ownership stake and voting power.
Keeping them as a minority stake in GLH allows AVZ to remain in control.

Easier for CATL to buy a indirect stake in GLH, which owns at least 60% undisputed (as long as Cominiere/DRC aren't successful in dismantling the Dathcom JV), and possibly 75% if we get the 15% through ROFR.

So CATL taking an indirect stake in GLH means they are confident/hoping/hedging that:
- The Dathcom JV stays intact
- GLH owns at least 60%, and hopefully 75% of Dathcom
- AVZ get a license to mine via the Dathcom JV, maintaining the value in Dathcom via some sort of deal or legal win, whichever comes first.

This is a Good Thing (tm).

The funding supplied to get this indirect stake is helpful because it supplies funding for:
- litigation, ICC/ICSID fees, operational/working capital, and
- demonstrated ability to fund mining, which is required to get the exploitation permit. This is an important point that people forget.

This is a Really Good Thing (tm).

Where things get sticky are conditions around release of funding after the initial $10M and when repayment of funds becomes due. We don't have the details around that, but I'm pretty sure it will be covered off. There are still negotiations going on we aren't aware of.

One thing for sure is Cominiere will be very unhappy at this turn of events, and that alone gives me warm fuzzies.

 

[Schnitzelfresser]

My 2 cents
For me, this was actually a master plan by Nigel. I never expected CATH to be part of the game or an ally again.
If that was the plan...he used Locke as bait to get Cath to the table. Cath will have shown interest in “helping” beforehand, the terms were just crap. As the announcement says, AVZ, via Locke, got an additional valuation on the pending arbitration...and for free. So all the aces were now with Nigel and I think he was able to strike a good deal. There is always room for improvement, but of course the lithium price is not strong and DRC is still a hole that no westerner dares to enter.
The fact that a large Chinese company is now covering AVZ means that many of the arguments of the corrupt are falling by the wayside. But with the best will in the world I can't believe that we are really going to build the mine and mine from it.

 

[JNRB]

They can't. No-one is going to sell it to them.

Dathcom is the JV that is/owns the Manono project.

AVZ's interest in Manono is via GLH's stake in Dathcom, via AVZI.
GLH is a wholely owned subsidiary of AVZI.

Some of the ownership disputes are things like Cominiere selling 15% interest in the Dathcom JV to Dathomir.
You'd need all JV parties to agree, and they are all fighting.

When we say AVZ owns 75% of Dathcom, we mean GLH's 60% interest, plus the 15% that was also sold to Dathomir (Cong) in violation of our ROFR.

For CATH to get a stake directly in Dathcom, they'd have to buy it from Cominiere, Dathomir, or GLH. That would immediately start a shitfight, since thoses parties are currently at ICC/ICSID arguing over who owns what in Dathcom re: the ROFR and selling 15% to Dathomir. Also remembering that Cominiere is trying to dissolve the Dathcom JV.

AVZ would never sell any of GLH's stake in Dathcom JV to CATL. It would give them a direct ownership stake and voting power.
Keeping them as a minority stake in GLH allows AVZ to remain in control.

Easier for CATL to buy a indirect stake in GLH, which owns at least 60% undisputed (as long as Cominiere/DRC aren't successful in dismantling the Dathcom JV), and possibly 75% if we get the 15% through ROFR.

So CATL taking an indirect stake in GLH means they are confident/hoping/hedging that:
- The Dathcom JV stays intact
- GLH owns at least 60%, and hopefully 75% of Dathcom
- AVZ get a license to mine via the Dathcom JV, maintaining the value in Dathcom via some sort of deal or legal win, whichever comes first.

This is a Good Thing (tm).

The funding supplied to get this indirect stake is helpful because it supplies funding for:
- litigation, ICC/ICSID fees, operational/working capital, and
- demonstrated ability to fund mining, which is required to get the exploitation permit. This is an important point that people forget.

This is a Really Good Thing (tm).

Where things get sticky are conditions around release of funding after the initial $10M and when repayment of funds becomes due. We don't have the details around that, but I'm pretty sure it will be covered off. There are still negotiations going on we aren't aware of.

One thing for sure is Cominiere will be very unhappy at this turn of events, and that alone gives me warm fuzzies.

The previous agreement, IIRC, was for CATH to take a stake in Dathcom.
So what's relevant here is why it's now changed.