Meanwhile back at the DRC and its corrupt agencies....
I did some digging around enforcement (or lack-of) of international arbitral awards, and the potential consequences for us.
It seems that the DRC is not the only country with a history of disregarding ICC & ICSID rulings or awards. Unsurprisingly, Venezuela, Argentina and Russia are also up to their necks in ignoring arbitral rulings...and they seem to be getting away with it.
- Venezuela has a long history of disregarding rulings from international tribunals. It appears willing to defy the rulings, likely calculating the strategic importance of the disputed matters outweighs the financial and reputational risks. Examples include: Kimberley-Clark vs Venezuela (ICSID), and OPIC Karimun vs Venezuela (ICSID).
- Argentina also has a history of ignoring or refusing to comply with adverse arbitral awards. Argentina ignored its international legal obligations in the majority of the over 50 investor-state arbitration awards rendered against it, totaling over $1.9 billion in principal and interest. However, recently Argentina governments have made some progress in rectifying this appalling record.
- Unsurprisingly, Russia also has form for non-compliance with adverse arbitral awards rendered against it. One review found that almost no arbitral awards were actioned voluntarily, and less than 50% of foreign awards were enforced by Russian courts. Examples include, Everest Estate v. Russia (ICSID).
As we are well aware, the DRC (and Cominiere) are entangled in a complex web of corrupt contracts with the Chinese, which will be extremely difficult to disentangle. The DRC has little incentive to change its behavior because its international reputation is already severely damaged due to widespread corruption at all levels of government, judiciary and business. In addition, China's ongoing demand for raw materials and its willingness to secure mining rights through bribery, regardless of international legal standards gives the DRC a ready market for its minerals.
From an AVZ Minerals investor point of view, all this supports our board's view of negotiating a deal ahead of time, rather than relying on the outcomes of lengthy international arbitrations, and voluntary compliance or enforcement of awards. Even if AVZ rolls the dice and ultimately wins everything, enforcement could stretch to a decade or more.
In the end, the DRC may still refuse to pay up, particularly if in the meantime Zijin expands its Manono footprint, pollutes its rivers beyond repair, further impoverishes the local community, and expatriates its ill-gotten billions back to China.
Just thinking out aloud.
Cheers
F