I personally do not see Ukraine in the same light as Taiwan. Poor Ukraine has nothing really that the US wants to protect except for a fledgling democracy. If Russia takes over the Ukraine it will really have no implications for the US. Look what the US was happy to tolerate by pulling out of Afganistan.
Taiwan on the other hand has TSMC and the US currently needs TSMC to continue to produce semiconductors until it is up and running everywhere else around the world. The USA is also spending big on encouraging Intel and others to heavily invest in semiconductor foundries to ensure supply. Once TSMC has factories in Japan, USA and Europe that is when poor old Taiwan will be at risk. The CCP are not stupid and will know that just by waiting a couple of years an invasion of Taiwan will be something that will not materially interfere with the economic interests of the US and they will be unlikely to step in militarily.
In fact if TSMC was going to start business again I doubt that it would do so in Taiwan. Leaving aside the geopolitical issues TSMC foundries need lots of fresh clean water and Taiwan regularly has shortages of this liquid in fact only about 6 months ago there was concern that TSMC might need to start importing water to keep operating. So there is an argument that once TSMC has its other mega foundries up and running around the World it could make a business decision to start winding back the amount of production it does in Taiwan particularly given the risk of the CCP invading.
I also agree with Dio that if the CCP did decide to invade Taiwan there would be one hell of an explosion at the TSMC foundry. TSMC has produced chips for NASA and DARPA going back years so I have little doubt that there will be a contingency plan in place. It is not just AKIDA technology in play or at risk.
My opinion only DYOR
FF
AKIDA BALLISTA
TSMC have not been asleep at the wheel:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC
The following fabs were in operation in 2020:
[95]
- Four 300 mm "GIGAFABs" in operation in Taiwan: Fab 12 (Hsinchu), 14 (Tainan), 15 (Taichung), 18 (Tainan)
- Four 200 mm wafer fabs in full operation in Taiwan: Fab 3, 5, 8 (Hsinchu) , 6 (Tainan)
- TSMC China Company Limited, 200 mm: Fab 10 (Shanghai)
- TSMC Nanjing Company Limited, 300 mm: Fab 16 (Nanjing)
- WaferTech L.L.C., TSMC's wholly owned US subsidiary, a 200 mm fab: Fab 11 (Camas, Washington)
- SSMC (Systems on Silicon Manufacturing Co.), a joint venture with NXP Semiconductors in Singapore, 200 mm, where production started at the end of 2002
- One 150 mm wafer fab in full operation in Taiwan: Fab 2 (Hsinchu)
Fab partially online as of 2021:
- Fab 18, 300 mm (Tainan), phase 3 and 4[97]
Fab planned as of 2021:
- Arizona, USA (under construction November 2021, anticipated to use 5 nm process)[98]
- Kumamoto, Japan (planned groundbreaking in 2021, anticipated to use 22 nm and 28 nm process)[50][51]
TSMC has four Backend Fabs under operation: Fab 1 (Hsinchu), 2 (Tainan), 3 (Taoyuan City), and 5 (Taichung)
In 2020, TSMC announced a planned fab in
Phoenix,
Arizona, USA, intended to begin production by 2024 at a rate of 20,000 wafers per month. As of 2020, TSMC announced that it would bring its newest 5 nm process to the Arizona facility, a significant break from its prior practice of limiting US fabs to older technologies. However, the Arizona plant will not be fully operational until 2024, by which time the 5 nm process is projected to be replaced by TSMC's
3 nm process as the latest technology.
[99] At launch it will be the most advanced fab in the United States.
[98] TSMC plans to spend $12 billion on the project over eight years, beginning in 2021.
[99] It will create 1,900 jobs directly.
[100]
The investment of US$9.4 billion to build its third 300mm wafer fabrication facility in Central Taiwan Science Park (Fab 15) was originally announced in 2010.
[101] The facility was expected to manufacture over 100,000 wafers a month and generate US$5 billion per year of revenue.
[102] TSMC has continued to expand advanced 28 nm manufacturing capacity at Fab 15.
[103]
On 12 January 2011, TSMC announced the acquisition of land from
Powerchip Semiconductor for NT$2.9 billion (US$96 million) to build two additional 300mm fabs (Fab 12B) to cope with increasing global demand.
[104]
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