AVZ Discussion 2022

[wombat74]

In my opinion i believe what you have said is right on point and well we are back on the TO caper I'm going to burst you bubble and say $2-3 is overly optimistic. I feel $1.50 will be max and that the line in the latest announcement "The company is confident of a positive outcome for its shareholders" in my opinion possibly refers to a TO being negotiated. this is completely a gut feeling, holds no merit and I'm clutching at straws with a big guess. However I just thought I would have a ramble on a Sunday afternoon as its a change from Pineapples, Boats, Steak, Red wine and golden Easter eggs.

On a side note NF has many million reasons to negotiate a take over and for a lot of holders $1.50 would be life changing and a heroic move. Not too many GEOs go from explorer 4c to multi billion dollar TO. JUST THINK ABOUT THAT. its very easy to get side distracted with rose tinted goggles when people are throwing around figures of $5,$7....... but is this reality???

Don't get me wrong I'm arms wide open to $2-$3-$5 but I think its a little dreamy.

all in my own opinion of course and guessing and speculating is all we can do until we get official news.

"The company is confident of a positive outcome for its shareholders"
I picked up on this as well when they used it in a previous announcement and came to the same conclusion as you . Have never thought for 1 second AVZ would go on to develop this project . Of course they have to play the game . Talk up future plans blah blah blah . In my opinion Nigel "might" have flipped up in his last interview . I cant remember exactly what he said word for word because it was deleted out very shortly after the interview was released on You tube . He said something along the lines he didn't want AVZ to be a one trick pony . Not just lithium ? Strange thing to say I thought with the biggest undeveloped lithium deposit on planet on your plate. As I said it was deleted out of the interview . Why?
For those that got in near the top I can't see $1.50 being a "good outcome for it's shareholders." Not for the opportunities lost elsewhere and the stress many have been through . I wonder if there are those who were opposed to the idea of a TO would now welcome it just have this over with . But not at $1.50 .
Currently drilling is also interesting . Adding value for a potential buyer perhaps ?

 

[M.Bison]

"The company is confident of a positive outcome for its shareholders"
I picked up on this as well when they used it in a previous announcement and came to the same conclusion as you . Have never thought for 1 second AVZ would go on to develop this project . Of course they have to play the game . Talk up future plans blah blah blah . In my opinion Nigel "might" have flipped up in his last interview . I cant remember exactly what he said word for word because it was deleted out very shortly after the interview was released on You tube . He said something along the lines he didn't want AVZ to be a one trick pony . Not just lithium ? Strange thing to say I thought with the biggest undeveloped lithium deposit on planet on your plate. As I said it was deleted out of the interview . Why?
For those that got in near the top I can't see $1.50 being a "good outcome for it's shareholders." Not for the opportunities lost elsewhere and the stress many have been through . I wonder if there are those who were opposed to the idea of a TO would now welcome it just have this over with . But not at $1.50 .
Currently drilling is also interesting . Adding value for a potential buyer perhaps ?

Aren’t we just quoting half of that sentence, stopping before a comma? “Resulting in the reinstatement of trading of its securities”. Doesn’t scream takeover to me. Don’t get me wrong, I want out of this. Just can’t see that happening.
It’s going to take some truly astounding series of positive announcements to get this to open green. Even if holders don’t want out completely, you can guarantee a good chunk are going to want to reduce their exposure.
For those willing to wait years then sure, you might see $1-$3.

 

[Winenut]

"The company is confident of a positive outcome for its shareholders"
I picked up on this as well when they used it in a previous announcement and came to the same conclusion as you . Have never thought for 1 second AVZ would go on to develop this project . Of course they have to play the game . Talk up future plans blah blah blah . In my opinion Nigel "might" have flipped up in his last interview . I cant remember exactly what he said word for word because it was deleted out very shortly after the interview was released on You tube . He said something along the lines he didn't want AVZ to be a one trick pony . Not just lithium ? Strange thing to say I thought with the biggest undeveloped lithium deposit on planet on your plate. As I said it was deleted out of the interview . Why?
For those that got in near the top I can't see $1.50 being a "good outcome for it's shareholders." Not for the opportunities lost elsewhere and the stress many have been through . I wonder if there are those who were opposed to the idea of a TO would now welcome it just have this over with . But not at $1.50 .
Currently drilling is also interesting . Adding value for a potential buyer perhaps ?

Not wanting to be a "one trick pony"

I see that as Nige wanting absolutely to progress Manono and then utilise the incredible cashflow that generates to further invest and diversify into other additional projects ultimately becoming a massive global diversified miner along the lines of RIO, BHP etc etc

 

[Mr Inappropriate]

"The company is confident of a positive outcome for its shareholders"
I picked up on this as well when they used it in a previous announcement and came to the same conclusion as you . Have never thought for 1 second AVZ would go on to develop this project . Of course they have to play the game . Talk up future plans blah blah blah . In my opinion Nigel "might" have flipped up in his last interview . I cant remember exactly what he said word for word because it was deleted out very shortly after the interview was released on You tube . He said something along the lines he didn't want AVZ to be a one trick pony . Not just lithium ? Strange thing to say I thought with the biggest undeveloped lithium deposit on planet on your plate. As I said it was deleted out of the interview . Why?
For those that got in near the top I can't see $1.50 being a "good outcome for it's shareholders." Not for the opportunities lost elsewhere and the stress many have been through . I wonder if there are those who were opposed to the idea of a TO would now welcome it just have this over with . But not at $1.50 .
Currently drilling is also interesting . Adding value for a potential buyer perhaps ?

I want AVZ to go mining. I’m hopeful that the BFS puts a nice floor under the SP to help frame such TO conversations.

 

[wombat74]

Howdy Wombat, I don't know where Nigel is presently or exactly what he is told or by whom in the DRC. I would not suggest anyone consider information on these threads as fact, far too strong a word. The AVZ story has been all over the shop IMO so hard to take comfort in any information being accurate or at best, only for a short time. Persons on the ground I connected with a few months ago (that are not part of AVZ's team or advisors) do paint a picture of what is going on and that leads to filling in some gaps with conjecture or assumptions. That's the best I can do while we wait for offical or formal information. Cheers The Fox

Thank you for your reply Fox . You didn't answer my question re : "Cong has agreed not to claim any ownership percentage of AVZ so all in the clear there around ownership issues, although Cong still has his hand out, but we can sort that out don’t worry."
It's quite conclusive and a direct statement to make I would have thought . Nothing grey about it .

I had hoped you had a contact on the inside . Wasn't sure . Thanks for clearing that up . So I'm guessing it's someone that posts on others sites . Maybe poster by the name of , Solo . There are a few others I read on the TWATTER . I can't remember their names . I'm probably hearing the same shit you are . I take most of it with less than a grain of salt .
Not having a go at you here Fox . I think your hearts in the right place . I just like to sift through the rumble and find the truth . Some call it being a Bully . They can get stuffed lol .

 

[wombat74]

I want AVZ to go mining. I’m hopeful that the BFS puts a nice floor under the SP to help frame such TO conversations.

Me too.

 

[Carlos Danger]

"The company is confident of a positive outcome for its shareholders"
I picked up on this as well when they used it in a previous announcement and came to the same conclusion as you . Have never thought for 1 second AVZ would go on to develop this project . Of course they have to play the game . Talk up future plans blah blah blah . In my opinion Nigel "might" have flipped up in his last interview . I cant remember exactly what he said word for word because it was deleted out very shortly after the interview was released on You tube . He said something along the lines he didn't want AVZ to be a one trick pony . Not just lithium ? Strange thing to say I thought with the biggest undeveloped lithium deposit on planet on your plate. As I said it was deleted out of the interview . Why?
For those that got in near the top I can't see $1.50 being a "good outcome for it's shareholders." Not for the opportunities lost elsewhere and the stress many have been through . I wonder if there are those who were opposed to the idea of a TO would now welcome it just have this over with . But not at $1.50 .
Currently drilling is also interesting . Adding value for a potential buyer perhaps ?

The next line after 'confident of a positive outcome for its shareholders' is 'resulting in a reinstatement of trading in its securities'

We wouldn't need to trade again if we are being taken over

I think a scenario where we sell part of the deposit is possible. If we could get enough cash to fund the mine and processing plant development costs without needing to take on debt by selling off a majority holding of northern CDL to another entity that would be a positive move by the company imo.

A joint venture where we retain a minority holding of northern CDL free carried would be ideal. That way we can concentrate on building the RD mine (the current drilling is for initial pit design in previously flooded area as well as expanding resource) and the processing plants while someone else does the drilling for northern CDL and we still get a cut of profits from that deposit long term without having to pay costs.

This would result in no payback period with dividends sooner and more lithium being dug up and processed in Manono before 2030 which would be the best outcome for all stakeholders.

 

[Roon]

Hello all - have come over to the dark side to see what all the fuss is about!

 

[The Fox]

Thank you for your reply Fox . You didn't answer my question re : "Cong has agreed not to claim any ownership percentage of AVZ so all in the clear there around ownership issues, although Cong still has his hand out, but we can sort that out don’t worry."
It's quite conclusive and a direct statement to make I would have thought . Nothing grey about it .

I had hoped you had a contact on the inside . Wasn't sure . Thanks for clearing that up . So I'm guessing it's someone that posts on others sites . Maybe poster by the name of , Solo . There are a few others I read on the TWATTER . I can't remember their names . I'm probably hearing the same shit you are . I take most of it with less than a grain of salt .
Not having a go at you here Fox . I think your hearts in the right place . I just like to sift through the rumble and find the truth . Some call it being a Bully . They can get stuffed lol .

Twitter has been helpful to locate and pinpoint journalists in the DRC and speak to some of them. All the Cominiere, AVZ, Dathcom, Simon Cong articles when written or published have attached the authors name and the ones that have provided the most information in articles are good ones to target for a conversation.

Some attend the courts on a regular basis and even if a case is being heard behind closed doors some information is picked up after the court session is finished for the day. Quality journalists have their contacts in the courts of course. I avoid journalists that just cut and paste others work, waste of time.

I looked just now at Solo on Twitter, read a dozen or more posts. I agree with some of his comments, yet I don’t know him/her nor have I ever had a conversation with him/her, and I’m certainly not Solo if that’s what you were thinking.

My close connections picked up on Twitter use their real name and their position or profession in the DRC can be verified outside of Twitter. Based on my response here, I shall let you draw your own conclusions with regard to your Cong question. Remember I said just doing the best to form a picture with regard to current status of things. Hopefully AVZ have turned the corner and are on the home straight now.

Cheers The Fox

 

[BEISHA]

That tennis trophy side story was funny as shit

Nevertheless kudos for winning the U14 title you must have been pretty damn good!

I played tennis on the grass courts at Applecross once back in the day and then dragged a net up and down the Swan catching prawns which were then promptly dumped into a huge pot of boiling water on a fire right near the rivers edge and then consumed

Unbelievable.....would have been around mid-late 70's

Had to wear sandshoes in the river when dragging for the prawns so you didn't get spiked accidently by the Cobblers

Aagh, so you are another perth lad hey ?

Not wishing to brag brother, but i was the junior state champion from 10 - 18yrs.

Top 10 in Australia too.........used to school Todd Woodbridge and Jason Stoltenburg whilst i was at it.

I was 16yrs when i played mens A grade ..............i also got to play against Stefan Edberg and Yannick Noah when the WA open was played at Kings Park as a feeder to the Australian Open when it was played on grass.........

Oh those were the days..........

Now i am just a fat slob playing golf............

 

[LOCKY82]

Why are people sh#@ting the bed now? All this talk of TO price of $1.50 a share at best!?
That sounds like madness, sure with the dodgy dealings it's that price makes sense with uncertainty.
BUT with everything cleared up and even more drilling results to come bfs, sez, ml..... yanks sniffing around Chinese sneaking and the motherload of battery grade lithium deposits waiting in the wings, $1.50 TO is ridiculous IMO! NF knows what they're sitting on and he said before they intend to mine. AVZ has good legal title aka we're holding the cards! If you want it you are going to have to pay up simple!!

 

[wombat74]

Aren’t we just quoting half of that sentence, stopping before a comma? “Resulting in the reinstatement of trading of its securities”. Doesn’t scream takeover to me. Don’t get me wrong, I want out of this. Just can’t see that happening.
It’s going to take some truly astounding series of positive announcements to get this to open green. Even if holders don’t want out completely, you can guarantee a good chunk are going to want to reduce their exposure.
For those willing to wait years then sure, you might see $1-$3.

What is stopping us from trading again if an offer is made ? I've held stocks in the past that continued trading while offers were being considered . Usually following a halt in trading . Puts a rocket under the SP I might add . The SP quite often shooting up near the TO offer .
We will trade again if an offer is made IMO .

 

[ChrisU]

Hi All

Fuck me............feels like a bunsen burner in this forum atm........


I may as well add to the fire.........


MYSOGYNY ?

Give me a break, when that was mentioned, i looked back on all the posts and couldnt find squat........am i to assume feelings were hurt when @JAG sent another girly pic ?

Like many on this forum , i am a male, have a wife and a daughter, so by me giving JAG a " like " for a gorgeous girl, does that make me a mysogynist ?

I have much respect for the female brigade as i am sure everyone here does, feel utterly disgusted that in the great nation of OZ, that 1 in 3 females get domestically abused.........

So to even up the score

View attachment 16842

Enjoy ladies...........


@Der Geist , @R2D2

Whats with the chinese symbols ?............wtf ?

Not being discrimintory , cause i have alot of chinese clients, some are also mates, but considering chinese state backed coys like Zijin ( amongst others ) plus Cong are the core evil in this ROYAL SHIT SHOW aka @John25 , i consider that to be a red flag to a bull in the TSE AVZ community.....

I reckon @The Fox has nailed the current situation succinctly, this is completely out of Nigels hands this royal shit show, probably the reason why a whole heap of " deadlines " havnt been met in the past either........

Should Nigel have been a little bit more transparent with shareholders / ASX about a possible shit storm brewing ?.............possibly, or possibly not, like i said in a previous post, if Nigel did allude, then AVZ SP might have tanked regardless...........markets hate ambiguity !

Damned if you do, damned if you dont.

Given what we know now with all this corruption shit, i reckon he has done a hell of a job to navigate AVZ to the ML decree stage..........

Easy to criticise, but what a unforgiving job having to deal with corrupt DRC officials plus back stabbing chinese coy looking to take away your prized possessions that you have worked your tits off to achieve !!

It reminds me when i was a kid when i won the 14 & under state tennis title, i received this awesome trophy, i was proud as punch.........only to then have that taken away from me due to a mistake and was handed another trophy that looked like a door stop..............

Anyway..............another extended suspension........

But.......there is hope.

" The company is confident of a positive outcome for its share holders , resulting in the re-instatement of trading in its securities. "

Nigel wouldnt make such a comment if indeed it wasnt true....


I reckon @Nellie17 and @The Fox have been on the money all along............just not the time lines.

I reckon Felix is finally showing his true colours.

All the jigsaw pieces i read from the great sleuths in this forum point to a positive outcome.


But i will only believe its TRUE..............once that formal ASX announcement drops on the 10/10 or earlier.


Stay strong my brothers and sisters................party time may not be that far away.

View attachment 16870

View attachment 16871

imo

What Chinese symbols?

While we are at it, who are the major shareholders in AVZ?

Time for us Australians to climb out of our Joey pockets of parochialism. We already see Chinese signage in some streets. For Godsake, adjust for once.

 

[Carlos Danger]

What is stopping us from trading again if an offer is made ? I've held stocks in the past that continued trading while offers were being considered . Usually following a halt in trading . Puts a rocket under the SP I might add . The SP quite often shooting up near the TO offer .
We will trade again if an offer is made IMO .

The same thing stopping us trading now haha

In normal circumstances you are correct we would continue to trade after an offer is announced to market

 

[BEISHA]

Why are people sh#@ting the bed now? All this talk of TO price of $1.50 a share at best!?
That sounds like madness, sure with the dodgy dealings it's that price makes sense with uncertainty.
BUT with everything cleared up and even more drilling results to come bfs, sez, ml..... yanks sniffing around Chinese sneaking and the motherload of battery grade lithium deposits waiting in the wings, $1.50 TO is ridiculous IMO! NF knows what they're sitting on and he said before they intend to mine. AVZ has good legal title aka we're holding the cards! If you want it you are going to have to pay up simple!!

I agree with you Locky .

I will be one pissed SOB if the chinese get their way of a cheap T/O

Havnt put up with this roller coaster , subterfuge just to get one more bag.

Holding AVZ long term to production and divvie status is where you make the BIG coin.

On top of making big coin, i want to see AVZ make a real difference for the locals and provide huge supply of spod the world desperately needs for the EV revolution, which will greatly assist our climate change predicament , which in turn will provide a better planet for my children and their children....rada, rada rada.

Just to remind.

And that doesnt include CDL.


AVZ is a game changer ............nothing compares.


What really puzzles the shit out of me .............why is China road blocking Roche Dure in the first place ?

After all, all the offtakes are taken up by the chinese, they need the supply urgently for their monsterous population, especially CATL / CATH with their new lithium hydroxide plant almost complete.

DRC needs this project up and running ASAP too.......if they are to galvanise their dream of being the worlds go to BATTERY HUB.........not to mention the taxes / royalties it would reap to give their country a better life.

This whole disgraceful period from 9/5/22 to now, just doesnt make sense with the bigger picture in mind.

Just my opinion.

 

[BEISHA]

What Chinese symbols?

While we are at it, who are the major shareholders in AVZ?

Time for us Australians to climb out of our Joey pockets of parochialism. We already see Chinese signage in some streets. For Godsake, adjust for once.

My bad mate..........i should of tagged LX600 and DERGEIST................not you.

Apologies.

BTW.......i am a proud Australian, proud to be a small part of the AVZ too.

Have no problem with chinese signage on our streets either, but have a massive problem with China influence trying to overtake not only Australias ideals, but the rest of the worlds too.

Time for China to take a step back, or feel the wrath of western sanctions which will bring China to their knees with their fragile economy....

I dont like bullies.

imo

 

[CeckRaiseFold]

Aren’t we just quoting half of that sentence, stopping before a comma? “Resulting in the reinstatement of trading of its securities”. Doesn’t scream takeover to me. Don’t get me wrong, I want out of this. Just can’t see that happening.
It’s going to take some truly astounding series of positive announcements to get this to open green. Even if holders don’t want out completely, you can guarantee a good chunk are going to want to reduce their exposure.
For those willing to wait years then sure, you might see $1-$3.

There also was a German investment briefing early this year at which one of the topics was "exit strategies". A sell down or TO is the most obvious exit strategy IMO.
I was expected to be shot down in flames with my post, bringing up the TO again, but I'm grateful a few others on here see it this way too.

Now AVZ have a very tricky choice here to maximise any TO value:

1) Negotiate behind the scenes, share the BFS value details with a or multiple interested global miner(s) and refer to the SP ATH of somewhere in the $1.30s. Then receive the ML and clear any issues on ownership. At that stage a TO party would possibly be willing to put up $1.50 and take the company provided FIRB agrees. Or, If indeed AVZ is not "a one trick Pony", sell down the Dathcom share for the ML tenement, transfer the cash to SH via a special dividend and keep on exploring to the north or other areas to repeat the trick. In this scenario AVZ would indeed trade again, SHs get rewarded with the dividend, nobody wants to miss out on that and therefore nobody sells keep SP up until the dividends are paid after which they will tank.

2) Alternatively, go to market with the ML, ownership confirmed and BFS and bet on the SP going beyond OTH after an initial short lived dip when nervous hands leave. That could in due course force a higher TO or sell down price because in this scenario market shows a much higher value for the asset or company, but it is a much riskier strategy in my view.

 

[ptlas]

I think when everyone discusses a TO at some paltry sum they are forgetting the bald eagles circling.
Auction.

I long worked out where Fox was getting his intell.
The only mistake he appears to have made is apparently accepting the timelines.

It's another form of confirmation bias/ rose coloured glasses / wishful thinking of which we're all sometimes guilty.

Keep up the good work brother.

 

[TDITD]

Not wanting to be a "one trick pony"

I see that as Nige wanting absolutely to progress Manono and then utilise the incredible cashflow that generates to further invest and diversify into other additional projects ultimately becoming a massive global diversified miner along the lines of RIO, BHP etc etc

Absolutely agree here, people are so short-sighted and negative at times, don't make the mistake of placing your own personality on the company.

This IMO is why we have so many wanting to throw in the towel for $1.50, not seeing or hearing what Nigel has been alluding to all along. So many calling for a cheap take over, have the Chinese tactics worked on them. Yet in the shareholder meetings Nigel alluded to ramp ups and Hydroxide plant Aswell as diversifying when the times right. There are clues in interviews and presentations too.

It's quite clear to anyone listening that the BOD intend to go mining, they also want to become a large company an what company with a resource as big as ours wouldn't be a giant in their field, they have the resource to match their ambition and now they are going for it. With all the road blocks China have already thrown in the way these past few years if Nigel an co didn't want to go mining they would already be out.

We got people saying our BOD aren't up to it, they can't run a 10mtpa mine get a rail up and a lithium hydroxide plant. hmmm
On what great authority do you make that call? is twiggy here? Elon musk? didn't think so. They may or may not be able to but lets be honest anyone trying to pretend they know with absolute certainty is tugging themselves. Alot of projection IMO.

Somebody better have a word with Jeff Bezos that bastard started Amazon in his garage (he can't do that). Now would we call that a microcap company? All companies start off small/micro, they grow into larger companies or in Amazons case behemoths. BHP/FMG/AVZ no different.

Anyone heard of that company PLS by any chance? their founders had already moved on by the time they got into lithium, Ken Brinsden was running the show, now he has moved on and its Dale Henderson. The board can as the company grows. Oh and for you real negative people that think the board can't handle the project, lets circle back to Jeff Bezos - no qualifications to run a huge company Jeff Bezos the guy who was high up at an investment company, negatives would have been among the people clamouring over each other calling for Bezos to quit as the company grows. Top CEOs don't get a special badge out of a cereal box, they grow into it. Ahem Jeff

If you don't think big you won't achieve big. This is no cheap takeover company, the BOD has told you this, it has the resource to be market maker in hard rock, if the BOD do things right then why cant this company be a giant in 20-30yrs. The fact people refuse to even acknowledge this yet are 'invested' in this company is certainly curious.



*Disclaimer
I wholeheartedly apologise for any boo boos or hurt wurtys caused during reading of this post. However I cannot and will not take responsibility for further gross misunderstandings of the English word, also for the patriarchy, toxic masculinity, the slave trade any genocide that's ever occurred or wars or the twilight movies, especially the twilight movies.

 

[Frank]

Nigel, brother, the DG of CAMI went on unexpected leave, he’s out of the country, we need his signature.

Unexpected leave?
Perhaps he has left permanently with all the internal investigations?

*Fyi, Not sure if it's related or not, as

Back to Parliament: Juvénal Munubo stresses the need to vote a substantial budget for the country

The September session, which opens this Thursday, is essentially budgetary.

The elected representatives of the people will examine the law on the rendering of accounts for the 2021 financial year, but also the 2023 budget.

As for the 2023 budget, the national deputy Juvénal Munubo wants it to be up to the many development challenges of the DRC.

"It's a budget session, that is to say, you need a budget that meets the challenges facing the Congo, but also a balanced budget that takes into account the social needs of the population, a budget that allows give the means to the army so that peace returns to eastern Congo, a budget which allows us to be well prepared for the elections of next year”, declared this Thursday the elected representative of Walikale.

Recall that the deputies and senators return to work after three (3) parliamentary holidays.

www.mediacongo

Food for thought

Frank