AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Carlos Danger
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If AVZ's offer to Cominiere is accepted and implemented at the current shares outstanding of 3.529b then I expect 307m shares to be added to the AVZ register for the DRC government taking total AVZ shares outstanding to 3.836b.
3.836 (100%) - 3.529 (92%) = 0.307 (8%)
The 307m shares would be worth $239.4m AUD at the current share price of 0.78 which at today's AUDUSD exchange rate of 0.67 is worth $160.4m USD. Which leaves a balance of $5.6m USD ($8.3m AUD) left to be paid in cash for a total of $166m USD.
I have rounded these numbers and they are sensitive to the moving exchange rate so they could change a bit. Also the offer was made at a significantly lower share price which would have meant the 8% was worth less and more cash would have been part of the deal.
Will the DRC government be happy with less cash up front?
Not sure and maybe this has been part of the hold up. Again my belief is the preservation of the value of the 8% is a part of why we have been in suspension. There was a major drop in our share price after the Ministerial Decree on May 4th 2022 from around 1.20 to around the current price of 0.78. I don't attribute all of that to just concerns about the Zijin rumours as AVZ never held or claimed to own the 15% in question. Other forces were at play in my opinion.
Just over a year ago Zijin bought around 80m AVZ shares through a subsidiary of a subsidiary called Bellamel (Norton Gold Fields is the middle company). They got salty when we announced the CATL deal and sold enough of those shares to get out of the top 20.
My belief is Zijin didn't sell all of their holdings and possibly had more shares in other subsidiaries that they were using to push down the value of our offer to the DRC government on May 4th. Management would have been aware of who was selling that week as they get the updated register once transactions have cleared. So the timing of the suspension the week after matches my theory.
Also in general more shares being issued by a company is a dilution of value for existing shareholders. If we do get up to 5b shares and a $20b market cap then those shares would be worth $4.00 each as you say. If we get to the $20b market cap at the 3.83b shares I'm expecting then those shares would be worth around $5.22 each.
Nigel said in interviews earlier this year that the boards preference moving forward is to use debt for financing future costs rather than issuing more shares to maximise future shareholder value. Also we have secured $500m USD in financing for the construction of the mine according to Christian Lukusa in the interview the other day. If we do need to issue more shares then so be it but I can't see us needing to go over 4b shares total.
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CashKing
Regular
Who
’s ?I thought he seemed “different”
Ohh wait I read past the first paragraph
Carry on…
GLTAH
CashKing
Regular
Geez that didn’t take long on old HC. So maybe not to many new make the switch..
Advertising
…. GLTAH
Nellie17
Regular
Wombat celebrating at Mickeys party with his one million shares!
Hope you're right Fox with next week's call re the ML but from what I'm hearing is, Obe might be closer to the trading celebrations!
Good luck to everyone, it's getting bloody exciting!
Cheers,
Nells
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D
Deleted member 1612
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I’m so desperate for news at this point I googled AVZ office and I’m ready to ask Stanton how the mood seems in staff coming/going from the AVZ offices… anyone in WA wanna go on a stakeout?
Samus
Top 20
Azzler
Top 20
Lol, I know what you mean man, my tiny kingdom and Cashys left nut (before it gets blown out by 250 pineapples) for a fucking tid bit of actual news!View attachment 16158
I’m so desperate for news at this point I googled AVZ office and I’m ready to ask Stanton how the mood seems in staff coming/going from the AVZ offices… anyone in WA wanna go on a stakeout?
CashKing
Regular
Woah woah woah it was JAGs nut up for the chop not mine mate
…..I’m leaving my nuts out of this show…
Avz is upstairs so they can see us coming
.. & that’s one of beisha’s gems sitting out front btw…. Absolute Weapon he bought with ASN money … I know Frank would be frothing over that absolute mint farm hack 
BTW staff parking around the back…
GLTAH
The Fox
Regular
If Micky's party happens as expected, I suggested a few days might be needed to flick the switch on trading, can't see it all happening on the same day. Conversely, the process could be AVZ releasing all info prior so the party goes off big time, but I think the former is more likely. I doubt an AVZ resumption of trading date is locked in, yet I do find myself thinking about dearly departed Batman Adam West for the last week. Obe is probably more of a Jimmy Fallon fan I'd be guessing, same same.
JAG
Top 20
And just to remind everyone. My left nut was, was (key word...was} on the chopping block with regards to arbitration of which we have not attended and never willWoah woah woah it was JAGs nut up for the chop not mine mate
I’m leaving my nuts out of this show…
Avz is upstairs so they can see us coming
BTW staff parking around the back…
GLTAH
MoneyBags1348
Top 20
Thanks Carlos, a really great post (and much better than I’m seeing from my arch enemy Cash - Darth - Citious).
I agree with all you’ve said. I take into account possible capital raises for expansion, a pls plant, getting those types of things underway before we are producing and other things like that. I don’t really think we’ll get to 5 billion SOI but I do consider the possibilities. What I’m wondering at the moment (not concerned but just how my mind works) is how much we owe Momentum Attorneys and the other legal team (was it DL Piper, I’ve forgotten) after four months.
I’m confident with the shape we are in, just pissed off at the bullshit from Cominiere, Dathomir and the others arsewipes holding up FID, but when you see the price of CXO and LTR over the last few weeks, we could hit $2 pretty quickly.
I just like to consider all the possibilities, and love to get great answers to them like your post
The mind works in mysterious ways, I was just now considering the implications of JAG’s and Cash-Darth-Citious left nuts in a pineapple smoothie, but heard the Queen passed away overnight and respectfully want to say, she was a great old girl, will be missed by many and will be happily reunited with the Duke and planning their return to hopefully make this world a better place
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TDITD
Top 20
You got one reading it, imagine what I was like writing it. Can I recommend these for when the announcements start flowing :
https://www.bigw.com.au/product/moki-screen-wipes-50-wipes/p/781629
Edit, link didnt work
Didn't see wave machine in the DFS but I'm sure it won't make a material difference to the numbers in the BFS
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CeckRaiseFold
Regular
Haha, too funny I was thinking about doing just that the other day!! Stake the joint, check local cafes, do whatever it takes tocheck the moodView attachment 16158
I’m so desperate for news at this point I googled AVZ office and I’m ready to ask Stanton how the mood seems in staff coming/going from the AVZ offices… anyone in WA wanna go on a stakeout?
TDITD
Top 20
I'm thinking it'll be Augustus Caesars birthday bash, feel like I've been waiting as long as that too.If Micky's party happens as expected, I suggested a few days might be needed to flick the switch on trading, can't see it all happening on the same day. Conversely, the process could be AVZ releasing all info prior so the party goes off big time, but I think the former is more likely. I doubt an AVZ resumption of trading date is locked in, yet I do find myself thinking about dearly departed Batman Adam West for the last week. Obe is probably more of a Jimmy Fallon fan I'd be guessing, same same.
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