AVZ Discussion 2022

[blu]

I wouldn't be surprised if the short squeeze isn't as spectacular as we're all hoping for. The big jump in short position was on Friday 18th Mar in prep for on our inclusion into the ASX200 on the 21st. If the build in the short position is simply insto's hedging then any rise in SP is a zero sum game, depending on how much they have hedged, so depending on their appetite for profit/risk there may not be a rush to cover.

Thoughts?

 

[Bin59]

Good question.

If you are interested in some research, here is a good English translation of the Mining Code.

https://congomines.org/system/attachments/assets/000/000/101/original/GOVRDC-2003-ReglementMinier-EN.pdf?1430927814

And here is a summary of the Code in English.

Legal Guides, Business Reports and Events | ICLG

The International Comparative Legal Guides provide current and practical comparative legal information on several jurisdictions in a Q&A format.

iclg.com

Having trouble finding the full articles for the 2018 amendments in English.

However this publication gives an overview / summary of the amendments at the time they came in.

A new mining code for the DRC | Insights | DLA Piper Global Law Firm

www.dlapiper.com

If you come across the words 30% of turnover as the corporate tax, this is not the case, it is 30% of profit, something lost in translation on some of the information scores. 30% of turnover would never work of course.

One of the interesting items I notices in the amendments was the tax offset/concession stability period for a new mine was reduced from 10 years to 5 years which is expected for AVZ, which is fair I guess......bugger, 10 years would have been magnificent.

Lastly, no updates from on the ground, its very quiet, the glass half full in me says something positive will happen today (DRC time) regarding CAMI and reported in due course. With Cami advising (yesterday DRC time) that white smoke expected within a few days, so maybe this extends things a short time, however with the change in attitude by Cami as reported, the last barriers to ML being issued should fall at any time. (this week would be very nice)

Cheers The Fox

Thanks for your reply and update The Fox. Let’s hope CAMI get the ML sorted and good news arrives by some time next week.
Cheers!

 

[Xerof]

I wouldn't be surprised if the short squeeze isn't as spectacular as we're all hoping for. The big jump in short position was on Friday 18th Mar in prep for on our inclusion into the ASX200 on the 21st. If the build in the short position is simply insto's hedging then any rise in SP is a zero sum game, depending on how much they have hedged, so depending on their appetite for profit/risk there may not be a rush to cover.

Thoughts?

View attachment 14938 View attachment 14940

I think you are dead right, and you’ve beaten me to verbalise it. About 90mill short hedge went on the day we entered the ASX200. I would expect that to be funds uncomfortable with investment in DRC, or were already aware of the shenanigans that had happened behind the scenes.

So, for me that portion won’t feel the burn

On the other side REMX had 69 million to sell, as AVZ was dropped from their index.

If they had lent these out to shorters, then if they have any clues, they will recall these, forcing shorters to cover, and then sell quietly ( at over $2)

 

[Azzler]

Good question.

If you are interested in some research, here is a good English translation of the Mining Code.

https://congomines.org/system/attachments/assets/000/000/101/original/GOVRDC-2003-ReglementMinier-EN.pdf?1430927814

And here is a summary of the Code in English.

Legal Guides, Business Reports and Events | ICLG

The International Comparative Legal Guides provide current and practical comparative legal information on several jurisdictions in a Q&A format.

iclg.com

Having trouble finding the full articles for the 2018 amendments in English.

However this publication gives an overview / summary of the amendments at the time they came in.

A new mining code for the DRC | Insights | DLA Piper Global Law Firm

www.dlapiper.com

If you come across the words 30% of turnover as the corporate tax, this is not the case, it is 30% of profit, something lost in translation on some of the information. 30% of turnover would never work of course.

One of the interesting items I noticed in the amendments was the tax offset/concession stability period for a new mine was reduced from 10 years to 5 years which is expected for AVZ, which is fair I guess......bugger, 10 years would have been magnificent.

Lastly, no updates from on the ground, its very quiet, the glass half full in me says something positive will happen today (DRC time) regarding CAMI and reported in due course. With Cami advising (yesterday DRC time) that white smoke expected within a few days, so maybe this extends things a short time, however with the change in attitude by Cami as reported, the last barriers to ML being issued should fall at any time. (this week would be very nice)

Cheers The Fox

Appreciate the update Foxy,
I've been feeling especially frustrated this week, almost had a sweary rant on here about it to blow off steam!
So any information helps with the unknown.

Spring is almost here, and if I can't liquidate some funds, it's going to be so wasted...
I've already picked out my new E-mountain bike, and it's not bloody cheap!

I had to sell my other one back in June just to get by, which wasn't too bad since I don't really like riding in winter.

I plan on living it up large this warm season, really celebrate life and go adventuring everywhere I can.

But I need my bloody money! hahaha argh.....
Assuming we all get out of this alive of course, I've learned a very valuable lesson on financial risk.

Good god though, JUST SIGN THE RUDDY LICENCE YOU SONS OF BISCUITS! ahhh hahaha I'm going mad!

 

[LOCKY82]

Appreciate the update Foxy,
I've been feeling especially frustrated this week, almost had a sweary rant on here about it to blow off steam!
So any information helps with the unknown.

Spring is almost here, and if I can't liquidate some funds, it's going to be so wasted...
I've already picked out my new E-mountain bike, and it's not bloody cheap! View attachment 14945
I had to sell my other one back in June just to get by, which wasn't too bad since I don't really like riding in winter.

I plan on living it up large this warm season, really celebrate life and go adventuring everywhere I can.

But I need my bloody money! hahaha argh.....
Assuming we all get out of this alive of course, I've learned a very valuable lesson on financial risk.

Good god though, JUST SIGN THE RUDDY LICENCE YOU SONS OF BISCUITS! ahhh ahahah im going mad.

Sounds like you got the avziety bad too brother! Hang in there I think our news isn't as far away now

 

[Flight996]

Appreciate the update Foxy,
I've been feeling especially frustrated this week, almost had a sweary rant on here about it to blow off steam!
So any information helps with the unknown.

Spring is almost here, and if I can't liquidate some funds, it's going to be so wasted...
I've already picked out my new E-mountain bike, and it's not bloody cheap! View attachment 14945
I had to sell my other one back in June just to get by, which wasn't too bad since I don't really like riding in winter.

I plan on living it up large this warm season, really celebrate life and go adventuring everywhere I can.

But I need my bloody money! hahaha argh.....
Assuming we all get out of this alive of course, I've learned a very valuable lesson on financial risk.

Good god though, JUST SIGN THE RUDDY LICENCE YOU SONS OF BISCUITS! ahhh hahaha I'm going mad!

Nice wheels Azzler.

Spring is almost here, and I'm also looking forward to a bit of fine weather so I can put some miles on this.

Cheers
F

 

[Dazmac66]

I wouldn't be surprised if the short squeeze isn't as spectacular as we're all hoping for. The big jump in short position was on Friday 18th Mar in prep for on our inclusion into the ASX200 on the 21st. If the build in the short position is simply insto's hedging then any rise in SP is a zero sum game, depending on how much they have hedged, so depending on their appetite for profit/risk there may not be a rush to cover.

Thoughts?

View attachment 14938 View attachment 14940

It may still be below their buy in price but the longer they wait the less profit they lock in. Nothing gained by holding longer if zero chance of price falling further.

 

[JAG]

 

[The Fox]

I think you are dead right, and you’ve beaten me to verbalise it. About 90mill short hedge went on the day we entered the ASX200. I would expect that to be funds uncomfortable with investment in DRC, or were already aware of the shenanigans that had happened behind the scenes.

So, for me that portion won’t feel the burn

On the other side REMX had 69 million to sell, as AVZ was dropped from their index.

If they had lent these out to shorters, then if they have any clues, they will recall these, forcing shorters to cover, and then sell quietly ( at over $2)

Howdy Xerof,

I agree some of the selling prior to suspension should improve the chances of a significant rise in SP subject to no major outstanding issues at that time.

However, what are your thoughts on Yibin and Huayou which together hold 250 million shares? Are they a potential threat to our likely rise in SP temporarily or do you think they will hold tight? Obviously they didn’t sell down in the pre-suspension period which is positive of course.

It’s usually the unknown or left field event that can duck you regarding forward expectations. I hope the CCP is not an influence due to the defeat of Zijin.

Great to see Lithium Plus pick up 50 million shares during the short sellers attack, would not be surprised if they round up to 100 million or more on open.

Anyway, just wondering your thoughts on how tightly held AVZ shares are with Yibin and Huayou, all others thoughts welcome of course. Apart from spectacular shaker sellers attack that blows everyone out of the water on open, (extremely unlikely) this item around the two major Chinese shareholders is the only thing I can think of that could impact (temporarily) the SP on open.

One last more positive item is the data that came out around the time of the US guys made the visit to the DRC with regard to seeking information around AVZ. I think there is a significant yet unquantifiable interest from the US investor base that could come in over the top to acquire shares on open as well pushing things in the right direction.

Cheers The Fox

 

[Winenut]

Howdy Xerof,

I agree some of the selling prior to suspension should improve the chances of a significant rise in SP subject to no major outstanding issues at that time.

However, what are your thoughts on Yibin and Huayou which together hold 250 million shares? Are they a potential threat to our likely rise in SP temporarily or do you think they will hold tight? Obviously they didn’t sell down in the pre-suspension period which is positive of course.

It’s usually the unknown or left field event that can duck you regarding forward expectations. I hope the CCP is not an influence due to the defeat of Zijin.

Great to see Lithium Plus pick up 50 million shares during the short sellers attack, would not be surprised if they round up to 100 million or more on open.

Anyway, just wondering your thoughts on how tightly held AVZ shares are with Yibin and Huayou, all others thoughts welcome of course. Apart from spectacular shaker sellers attack that blows everyone out of the water on open, (extremely unlikely) this item around the two major Chinese shareholders is the only thing I can think of that could impact (temporarily) the SP on open.

One last more positive item is the data that came out around the time of the US guys made the visit to the DRC with regard to seeking information around AVZ. I think there is a significant yet unquantifiable interest from the US investor base that could come in over the top to acquire shares on open as well pushing things in the right direction.

Cheers The Fox

What would be the benefit to Yibin and Huayou of selling down their holdings?

Would they not want to also gain from the potential upside in AVZ?

 

[Mr Inappropriate]

Answer = RETIREMENT!!
TC.

+1

 

[Mr Inappropriate]

Nice wheels Azzler.

Spring is almost here, and I'm also looking forward to a bit of fine weather so I can put some miles on this.

Cheers
F

Jeezuz, I am going to have to post a photo of my mountain bike too so that I can get/stay in people's good graces?

 

[Retrobyte]

Nice wheels Azzler.

Spring is almost here, and I'm also looking forward to a bit of fine weather so I can put some miles on this.

Cheers
F

Another biker here ...

 

[The Fox]

What would be the benefit to Yibin and Huayou of selling down their holdings?

Would they not want to also gain from the potential upside in AVZ?

Correct no benefit, was inferring if there is anything unknown via influence by the CCP that could impact that logic.

 

[wombat74]

View attachment 14953

Round and round the merry go round . Yeh African time . Oh but we getting close . Next extension . The jungle drums a beating . Must be close . Next extension . I can feel in my plums . Should be out in a few days . Next extension . Cami crims have seen the light . Hopefully tomorrow . Nex extension . My mate knows this guy who is friends with the President . Should be out in the coming hours . Next extension . Hey Mr Pineapple , will you be my friend and give me some more time I've been told it's all happening imminently . I swear to god . I promise you I'll never eat another one of your Pineapple relatives again ......... Ok that's my version of a rant /vent .

 

[The Fox]

Round and round the merry go round . Yeh African time . Oh but we getting close . Next extension . The jungle drums a beating . Must be close . Next extension . I can feel in my plums . Should be out in a few days . Next extension . Cami crims have seen the light . Hopefully tomorrow . Nex extension . My mate knows this guy who is friends with the President . Should be out in the coming hours . Next extension . Hey Mr Pineapple , will you be my friend and give me some more time I've been told it's all happening imminently . I swear to god . I promise you I'll never eat another one of your Pineapple relatives again ......... Ok that's my version of a rant /vent .

I’d have that one ready to cut and paste into this thread Sat morning if no action at the front, and I wouldn’t blame you either.

 

[Xerof]

Howdy Xerof,

I agree some of the selling prior to suspension should improve the chances of a significant rise in SP subject to no major outstanding issues at that time.

However, what are your thoughts on Yibin and Huayou which together hold 250 million shares? Are they a potential threat to our likely rise in SP temporarily or do you think they will hold tight? Obviously they didn’t sell down in the pre-suspension period which is positive of course.

It’s usually the unknown or left field event that can duck you regarding forward expectations. I hope the CCP is not an influence due to the defeat of Zijin.

Great to see Lithium Plus pick up 50 million shares during the short sellers attack, would not be surprised if they round up to 100 million or more on open.

Anyway, just wondering your thoughts on how tightly held AVZ shares are with Yibin and Huayou, all others thoughts welcome of course. Apart from spectacular shaker sellers attack that blows everyone out of the water on open, (extremely unlikely) this item around the two major Chinese shareholders is the only thing I can think of that could impact (temporarily) the SP on open.

One last more positive item is the data that came out around the time of the US guys made the visit to the DRC with regard to seeking information around AVZ. I think there is a significant yet unquantifiable interest from the US investor base that could come in over the top to acquire shares on open as well pushing things in the right direction.

Cheers The Fox

I see all three of them as sleepers for the greater Chinese good (check out Lithium Plus BOD).

They have (trusting current drum beating to be correct) been stymied, firstly by FIRB, now by AVZ itself, but as I have said in the past, when the direct route closed by way of a TO, they pivoted and tried knocking on the DATHCOM back door.

I don’t trust any of them, and still have reservations about CATH too

Will they sell up now? Doubt it, but

Tim will tell

 

[JAG]

Another biker here ...

Righto, I now see where I have gone wrong as none of you bikies like any of my ART

 

[The Fox]

I see all three of them as sleepers for the greater Chinese good (check out Lithium Plus BOD).

They have (trusting current drum beating to be correct) been stymied, firstly by FIRB, now by AVZ itself, but as I have said in the past, when the direct route closed by way of a TO, they pivoted and tried knocking on the DATHCOM back door.

I don’t trust any of them, and still have reservations about CATH too

Will they sell up now? Doubt it, but

Tim will tell

Cheers for that Just considering....Oh AVZ update....I'll revert.

 

[JAG]