TLG Discussion 2022

[Semmel]

Next catalyst is the Vittangi upgrade due in August I think.

Don't forget shorters have to pay interest on the value of the shares they have borrowed. The SP was around $1.58 ish when the additional 2 million shorts began to be opened. So the spike to $1.19 means they lost quite a bit of money today.

If we look at Shortman the shorts started really hard around 14 April when SP was $1.58 then continued shorting all the way down to SP $1.05 on 23 June. So quite a few positions are now under water

Yes, the interest fees is why you need the share price flying for a prolonged period of time before the shorts are in danger. The borrowing fees are small if memory serves right. Its like 10% of the share price per year or something like that. A share price increase of 10% for a day does nothing to the fees they expect to pay over time. You need the share price to rise 50%+ for weeks on end to make it uncomfortable and even then, they need to be convinced that they are cannot close the shorts with a profit that also covers the borrowing fee.

The one danger a rising share price poses to the shorts is, that they need to place more collateral to prove they can cover at any point. So thats the danger where some might capitulate on the share price rise. But again, you need a substantial share price increase for that. And with a substantial share price increase comes usually an elevated trading volume. In which case there is enough volume for the shorts to close their position.

I must repeat again, this 1% short is in no danger of a short squeeze due to low trading volume. None.

 

[Affenhorst]

Next catalyst is the Vittangi upgrade due in August I think.

Don't forget shorters have to pay interest on the value of the shares they have borrowed. The SP was around $1.58 ish when the additional 2 million shorts began to be opened. So the spike to $1.19 means they lost quite a bit of money today.

If we look at Shortman the shorts started really hard around 14 April when SP was $1.58 then continued shorting all the way down to SP $1.05 on 23 June. So quite a few positions are now under water

I doubt that a resource upgrade would do much. We kinda already know that the stuff is there.

Real catalysts:

• Permits
• Offtakes
• Financing agreements/JV
• More ambitious scoping/feasibility studies

I'm afraid we may only see one or even none this year...

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

I doubt that a resource upgrade would do much. We kinda already know that the stuff is there.

Real catalysts:

• Permits
• Offtakes
• Financing agreements/JV
• More ambitious scoping/feasibility studies

I'm afraid we may only see one or even none this year...

Gee aren’t you the pessimist LOL

I think MT might surprise us with something.

How about a permit conditional offtake ?

Not impossible

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

The one thing that i don't like is take people's word for it. If there are numbers and tests to back it up: please publish it. If you can't publish it, tell us why. I trust Mark, but I still want to do my own due diligence and this is an open wound for me. I would like to see:
* Volumetric capacity
* Gravimetric capacity
* Charge retention over 1000 cycles
* Charging speed (if possible)

I had a bit of time this afternoon and I think we can take comfort in this insofar as the accuracy of claims that our anode is better than another leading anode etc etc................

I present you the Australian Securities and Investment Commission which takes its job very seriously these days after a number of reforms
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The Treasury Laws Amendment (Strengthening Corporate and Financial Sector Penalties) Act 2019 commenced on 13 March 2019, strengthening existing penalties and introducing new penalties for those who breach the corporate laws of Australia.

maximum prison penalties for the most serious offences have increased to 15 years – including breaches of director’s duties, false or misleading disclosure and dishonest conduct

maximum civil penalties for individuals and companies have significantly increased, and

civil penalties now apply to a greater range of misconduct – including a licensee’s failure to act efficiently, honestly and fairly, failure to notify about reportable situations and defective disclosure.

The new penalty provisions enable ASIC to pursue harsher civil penalties and criminal sanctions under the following ASIC-administered legislation:

Corporations Act 2001

Australian Securities and Investments Commission Act 2001

National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009 and National Credit Code

Insurance Contracts Act 1984.

The strengthened penalties apply to contraventions occurring from 13 March 2019 onwards.

Increased civil penalties for individuals and companies

Under the new penalty provisions, the maximum civil penalty for individuals is the greater of 5,000 penalty units (currently $1.11 million) or three times the benefit obtained and detriment avoided.

The maximum civil penalty for companies is the greater of:

50,000 penalty units (currently $11.1 million)

three times the benefit obtained and detriment avoided, or

10% of annual turnover, capped at 2.5 million penalty units (currently $555 million).

The value of a penalty unit is prescribed by the Crimes Act 1914 and is currently $222 for offences committed on or after 1 July 2020.

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

It's not my preference but I think we need to take MT at his word. Like I have said before in another place. Otherwise he will be facing some serious jail time

The ASX can report to ASIC

If ASX suspects that a listed entity has committed a significant contravention of Listing Rule 3.1, or that a listed entity or any other person (such as a director, secretary or other officer of a listed entity) has committed a significant contravention of the Corporations Act, it is required under that Act to give a notice to ASIC with details of the contravention.

The purpose of such a notice is so that ASIC can then consider what enforcement action, if any, it may wish to take in relation to the suspected contravention. As mentioned in the introduction, breaching Listing Rule 3.1 also potentially breaches section 674 of the Corporations Act and this has very serious legal consequences.


What Someone Else Said

17/11/2021

Commenting on the MOU, Long Time Technology COO Wayne Yen said:
“LT Tech, with profound experience, plans to start its manufacturing outside Asia while Talga in Europe is undeniably a trusted friend and partner. This partnership marks a step closer to our goal of producing the greenest anode, reinforces the ambitions to scale our business into international markets, and further strengthen both technological capabilities.”

What TLG Claims

29/03/2022

Results show that Talnode-C containing battery cells outperform the endurance of market leading commercial cells by up to 36% (Fig 3). Furthermore, the tests confirm the fast charge, high power, and low temperature properties of Talnode-C anodes translate well to the full cell-level. Talga Anode Outperforms Commercial Li-ion Cells In Electric Vehicle Endurance Test Figure 1 The Lacama, developed by IV Electrics Figure 2 The Stelvio Pass, Italy In effect this means that a battery pack manufactured with Talnode-C may need less thermal management and materials, reducing cost and weight, while increasing energy density (and therefore driving range) and safety of the battery pack.

26/03/2019

Development of Talnode-C is accelerating through rigorous commercial validation processes at multiple commercial partner facilities and independent battery institutes in Asia, USA and Europe. In new tests conducted at a leading Japanese battery institute, Li-ion batteries using Talnode-C were subjected to performance tests under a range of temperatures including freezing conditions. Highlights of the test results include:

• Retention of 100% capacity and 100% cycle efficiency at freezing temperature (0°C)

• Out-performance of market leading commercial anode products

19/02/2019

Following initial test results (ASX:TLG Oct 2018) further optimisation of Talnode-Si, with up to 15% silicon loading, has been underway at Talga’s battery material facility in the Maxwell Centre of Cambridge University, UK. Highlights of new half cell cycling test results include:

• ~70% higher reversible capacity (~600mAh/g) than commercial graphite (~350mAh/g)*

• Coulombic efficiency of 99.5% - 99.9% with first cycle efficiency ~ 91%

• Up to 94% reversible capacity (after >130 cycles in a range of silicon loadings)


So they are very specific claims that MT has made just in the above examples. There are plenty of others.

I think it's very likely that all is OK with all the claims.

It's in the vibe

 

[Semmel]

Thank you for summarizing these Monkey.

I dont really know if going the fraught path is really any good. I do not believe that TLG would so such a thing. Couple of caveats and why I want numbers:

• Out-performance of market leading commercial anode products

Doesnt mean much as "market leading" can mean anything and it could be just a crappy cell that gets used a lot because its cheap. No one knows what they are comparing to and unless they say, this sentence has not a lot of weight.

• Retention of 100% capacity and 100% cycle efficiency at freezing temperature (0°C)

Doesnt tell us much about the anode as its the electrolyte that gets gooey and loses performance in cold weather, meaning it requires larger voltage differencial inside the battery to move the ions, which "reduces" the capacity of the cell. Its not a reduction as such, as the capacity comes back when it warms up. Anyhow, the anode has little influence on that. (this is my non-professional understanding)

The Talnode-Si numbers are more informative and I would love to see similar assessments (but hopefully better numbers) for Talnode-C. The performance of Talnode-Si is not yet marketable for EVs in my opinion. For example, of you take 99.7 (middle of 99.5 and 99.9) coulombic efficiency, meaning the degradation of capacity with each cycle means we have 75% capacity after 100 cycles. But I dont know how the curve is, as its not going to be constant. Probably with worse values at the beginning and tailing off after that. But even say, 20 cycles at each 99.5, 99.6, 99.7, 99.8 and 40 cycles at 99.9 .. you get around 73%. But no idea how this could in theory be mitigated by charging strategy.


Anyhow, I am not concerned. I just want to know and make my own assessment of the performance. Maybe its the scientist in me, but I dont like taking peoples word for it, as I am not 100% sure how to interpret what was said.

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

I hear you but with this..... No one knows what they are comparing to and unless they say, this sentence has not a lot of weight.

That is fraught with legal implications if you name the other brand. They (the other brand) will demand to know under what parameters the tests were run at a minimum or maybe they'll just skip that and see you in Court.

So there is a good reason for not being specific

 

[Semmel]

I hear you but with this..... No one knows what they are comparing to and unless they say, this sentence has not a lot of weight.

That is fraught with legal implications if you name the other brand. They (the other brand) will demand to know under what parameters the tests were run at a minimum or maybe they'll just skip that and see you in Court.

So there is a good reason for not being specific

And thats exactly the reason why that statement is meaningless

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

And thats exactly the reason why that statement is meaningless

OK maybe we both need to look at actions rather than words.

If you create coated anode in a “laboratory environment “ which everyone you sent samples to said they are “ok when it’s freezing but otherwise pretty mediocre “ would you then go to the trouble to finance and build an EVA plant to send out even more mediocre samples on a larger scale ?

Now that would be Madness

If our anode is so good would you publish statistics that might see your battery team headhunted ?

Anyway always good to question things

 

[cosors]

It's not my preference but I think we need to take MT at his word. Like I have said before in another place. Otherwise he will be facing some serious jail time

The ASX can report to ASIC

If ASX suspects that a listed entity has committed a significant contravention of Listing Rule 3.1, or that a listed entity or any other person (such as a director, secretary or other officer of a listed entity) has committed a significant contravention of the Corporations Act, it is required under that Act to give a notice to ASIC with details of the contravention.

The purpose of such a notice is so that ASIC can then consider what enforcement action, if any, it may wish to take in relation to the suspected contravention. As mentioned in the introduction, breaching Listing Rule 3.1 also potentially breaches section 674 of the Corporations Act and this has very serious legal consequences.


What Someone Else Said

17/11/2021

Commenting on the MOU, Long Time Technology COO Wayne Yen said:
“LT Tech, with profound experience, plans to start its manufacturing outside Asia while Talga in Europe is undeniably a trusted friend and partner. This partnership marks a step closer to our goal of producing the greenest anode, reinforces the ambitions to scale our business into international markets, and further strengthen both technological capabilities.”

What TLG Claims

29/03/2022

Results show that Talnode-C containing battery cells outperform the endurance of market leading commercial cells by up to 36% (Fig 3). Furthermore, the tests confirm the fast charge, high power, and low temperature properties of Talnode-C anodes translate well to the full cell-level. Talga Anode Outperforms Commercial Li-ion Cells In Electric Vehicle Endurance Test Figure 1 The Lacama, developed by IV Electrics Figure 2 The Stelvio Pass, Italy In effect this means that a battery pack manufactured with Talnode-C may need less thermal management and materials, reducing cost and weight, while increasing energy density (and therefore driving range) and safety of the battery pack.

26/03/2019

Development of Talnode-C is accelerating through rigorous commercial validation processes at multiple commercial partner facilities and independent battery institutes in Asia, USA and Europe. In new tests conducted at a leading Japanese battery institute, Li-ion batteries using Talnode-C were subjected to performance tests under a range of temperatures including freezing conditions. Highlights of the test results include:

• Retention of 100% capacity and 100% cycle efficiency at freezing temperature (0°C)

• Out-performance of market leading commercial anode products

19/02/2019

Following initial test results (ASX:TLG Oct 2018) further optimisation of Talnode-Si, with up to 15% silicon loading, has been underway at Talga’s battery material facility in the Maxwell Centre of Cambridge University, UK. Highlights of new half cell cycling test results include:

• ~70% higher reversible capacity (~600mAh/g) than commercial graphite (~350mAh/g)*

• Coulombic efficiency of 99.5% - 99.9% with first cycle efficiency ~ 91%

• Up to 94% reversible capacity (after >130 cycles in a range of silicon loadings)


So they are very specific claims that MT has made just in the above examples. There are plenty of others.

I think it's very likely that all is OK with all the claims.

It's in the vibe

Thank you for your work with both posts. In the end, it is very good that these topics are gradually being discussed here. For me, the question from the beginning was how to compare a customised part product if the reference is not given. Maybe we will never know the data of the specific anode or only the data of the complete battery and that directly from the customer.
I wish you all a good weekend!

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

Thank you for your work with both posts. In the end, it is very good that these topics are gradually being discussed here. For me, the question from the beginning was how to compare a customised part product if the reference is not given. Maybe we will never know the data of the specific anode or only the data of the complete battery and that directly from the customer.
I wish you all a good weekend!

Yep have a good weekend Cosors

You are a legend with your research around permits

 

[Semmel]

No one doubts their statements. Please don't read into my questions any indication of that. I am a shareholder for a reason. And i have between 35% and 50% (depending on market) of my net worth in Talga. I am substantially invested for my scale. I have no doubt Talga will do great. Still, my curiosity is like an ever burning thirst that cannot be quenched by the information that talga provided.

 

[cosors]

Do any of you live in Perth? One could go to the office to look at the sharholder lists. Over in the Brainchip group here someone did that and it was surprising. I'm thinking, for example, if Goldman still has the 10%. GS has increased their investment in NV, if I heard correctly.

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

Do any of you live in Perth? One could go to the office to look at the sharholder lists. Over in the Brainchip group here someone did that and it was surprising. I'm thinking, for example, if Goldman still has the 10%. GS has increased their investment in NV, if I heard correctly.

I’m in Sydney

Perth ?

Where’s that ?

 

[Semmel]

I’m in Sydney

Perth ?

Where’s that ?

About 39 deg west of you, can't miss it if you go straight

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

About 39 deg west of you, can't miss it if you go straight

 

[cosors]

I’m in Sydney

Perth ?

Where’s that ?

In my country it is like a small town that is ignored. What do you mean by "Bielefeld"? I don't know it. Or Cologne/Düsseldorf where I live.
It seems to be the same with you. I read somewhere that Perth is the new Sydney and much cooler

For the others - the office of Talga with the shareholder lists:
Talga Group
Suite 3.03, Level 3
46 Colin Street
West Perth, Australia 6005

You can also have them sent to you in two different versions, but the fee is not worth it to me. In the other group, someone just went by the office and found out that BRN has a new largest shareholder with over 10%, although the share price is being beaten and shorted as high as never before. Secretly and cheaply (dirty?) on board. It was a surprise. In our case, I would only be interested in whether GS still has the shares or not.

 

[Slymeat]

I believe that battery re-charge time is not the most important aspect of batteries.

Battery technology should rather concentrate on:

• Safety - stop the bloody things spontaneously exploding
• Charge density to either increase range or decrease weight
• Having a green/clean supply chain
• Increase longevity/number of cycles
• Reduce cost

Most of which, I am very proud to say, Talga are doing. Bring on Talnode-Si!

I expect most EVs will be able to spend several hours, every day, re-charging whilst parked at home (re-charging hopefully off solar panels on the roof of the house), whilst parked at a shopping center, and even when parked at work.

The family car spends 95% of its time parked after all. Use this time to implement this necessary activity and remove the annoying activity of actually needing to pull-over and re-charge before you run out. I really don‘t like having to stop and refuel my current car, but it is a necessity that I have grown used to.

The only time a fast re-charge will be of prime importance will be on a long trip that exceeds the range of the battery. But then there is also a good point that you should take regular breaks on a long trip, so is stopping every 300km-700km, for 30 minutes that big a deal? Plug you car in to the charger and go for a walk or have a meal! Maybe even sit there and have a little nap.

Plus, statistically, the vast majority of trips, for the average family car, are within a small radius of the home - typically about 10km. So you only need about 20km of range in your battery for most usage.

Commercial vehicles, such as taxis and delivery vehicles are an obvious exception. But even they spend a lot of time parked, and could utilise that time to recharge. A trail, for hybrid buses in London, started way back in 2014 that gives them a quick recharge every time the bus stops. A perfect solution could involve that same technology at every traffic light, it could be incorporated into the inductive sensing ring that already exists in the road. And electric power is already there, for the traffic light! That certainly would make stopping at a red light a less annoying activity.

I think some people have become used to the current scenario where you don‘t care about how much fuel is in your fuel tank until you are approaching empty, and then you quickly stop a a petrol station and refuel.

With electric cares we may simply need to re-think that approach. Or hopefully that required, and annoying, activity will simply disappear as most of the time our batteries will be topped up whilst we park and normal usage may not approach battery depletion or a need to stop just to re-charge—except of course on long trips. Which, as I stated above, is a brilliant opportunity to take a break!

 

[cosors]

I stumbled across this in my general research. Perhaps things we don't realise also come up. I'm not saying there's anything to it or fuelling speculation but the statement is quite specific I think. Of course, the Nordic Bank has already registered. But where does this bank want to invest? Unfortunately, once again behind a paywall. But I have made a request to maybe solve the problem and be able to subscribe. Just today, another apparently very interesting article about us appeared. Link
Here is the snippet (I have my translation difficulties with the headline):

"Industry summit wants to see more mines and expanded rivers​

"The reason why we are here now is mainly the connection to the mining industry. In addition, everyone wants to invest in sustainability today. Northern Sweden is very interesting there," says Lars Olof Nilsson, who works for the Finnish investment bank Evli."
https://nsd.se/bli-prenumerant/artikel/rm75wd8r

"A general reflection is that it is difficult to solve financing for mining projects, because so many projects have stalled due to strong local resistance and long, unpredictable permit processes; Kaunis is waiting for more permits, Laver, Kallak, Fäbodliden. I think that Sweden has a responsibility to contribute here. We have deposits of graphite, lithium, gold, iron and base metals. We must allow more mines to be opened, instead of being dependent on extraction in Russia, China and the Congo, which do not have the same environmental requirements at all. In practice, we export environmental damage when we do not take care of the metals themselves."

He was previously on the board of Boliden. Notice what he calls first.

 

[cosors]

Just a little info from the articles, so again just in my words and without warranty.

The EVA oven was/is made in Germany. What's more interesting is that it's the same as the ones that were supposed to be installed in the factory. And 3 of them. From this you can now calculate the capacity of the current EVA.)