TLG Discussion 2022

I checked the gross shorts today on the ASX and backwards 4 days.

They varied between 18k and 50k . That is low

We might see an SP improvement this week
 
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BaconLover

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Hi @Semmel
I see you asked the following question in another thread:

''but I have observed quite a number of times that the share price seems to rise a few % in the last hour of a trading day. Look at the plot yesterday for an example which was quite typical. I didn't do any statistical analysis, but I bet that it would stick out if you do. I have seen it in TLG quite often and also a couple of times in BRN, though I dont follow BRN that closely.

Do you have any idea why that is? Does it have anything to do with canceled orders or maybe a change in bid-ask spread towards the end of a trading day? Is there a way to see the spread on the ASX?
''

Do you have a chart/screenshot for this?
My initial thoughts are usually the last hour of the day is when instos do the transactions quite aggressively IF they REALLY want the shares. It is called ''hour of power'' for a reason, but without a chart or screenshot, it is quite difficult to guess what you were asking, which could be why there was no response to your post.

9 July 2022 TLG hourly .jpg

I had a look at the chart and the price rise stands out on a few days, but that's along with the general market trend when we have had a few green days. May be next time you notice it happening screenshot and ask again, someone might be able to help. (y)

Edit Stock Disclosure: Not Held.
 
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Semmel

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Hi @BaconLover,

Yes, I have a chart. Its just one, bit if required one can find many more. It happens around 1 to 2 times per week or so.

tlg_07072022.jpg


This is Juli 7th, and its particularly obvious for that day. I guess you are correct, I should have posted the picture to begin with. What I am interested in is the reason it goes up at the end of the day so frequently. Some users suggest manipulation, but I dont understand to what end. And quite frankly, to suspect manipulation behind every event is a bit rediculus. Of course SOMETHING influences the stock price, but it does not need to be anything sinister or whatever. At moment, it doesnt seem that institutions are interested in TLG. TLG is not in any index and there is simply not much going on at moment.

Also, I dont want to disturb you guys over at BRN, as this is a fringe topic for you. I just thought I ask over there as there are more experienced BRN people than here.
 
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cosors

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Here for those who want to know more about the development of silicon-graphite blends and the mixing, coating and calendering process and all the challenges that come with it. I cannot give you a summary myself, as this is not my field of research. But maybe there is someone among us who would like to summarise it for us. I will skim it when I get a chance but the time is not now.

Jun 13, 2022 Version 1
UNDERSTANDING THE PROCESSABILITY OF GRAPHITE BLEND ELECTRODES WITH SILICON NANOPARTICLES
 
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Slymeat

Move on, nothing to see.
For the massively abridged summary, and not a summary of the referenced article, per se, just from my own understanding of the technologies:

Current Li ion batteries use Graphite for their anode. This makes up close to 50% of the total weight of the battery cell.

Silicon has better charge density than Graphite so can pack in more capacity for the same weight. Or reduce the total weight for, say, the same range of an EV.

Metallurgical-grade silicon is cheaper than Graphite and hence should reduce the cost of the battery.

Silicon anodes have a bad feature that they expand and contract significantly during charge and discharge. This is referred to as “swelling” and it degrades the battery VERY quickly. The very first batteries employing a Silicon anode only lasted a few charge cycles - and I mean like less than 10. That is absolutely useless.

Current research is concentrating on reducing swelling, and hence extending the lifespan—increasing the number of charge cycles the battery can undergo. It needs to be in the range of tens of thousands.

Most research to control swelling involves adding other substances in with the Silicon (doping), or encapsulating the Silicon - typically microscopically - i.e. encapsulating groups of Silicon atoms in another substance - Graphite or Graphene for instance.

Talgs’s Talnode-Si battery uses Silicon in the anode combined with Graphite and Graphene to reduce the swelling. Personally, I believe this is the best solution on the market due to the very special properties of Graphene. This also has a massive advantage over pure Graphite anodes which are the cause of almost ALL Li ion battery explosions. Carbon dendrites can form from the anode to the cathode and cause an internal short circuit.

As investors, that is probably about the extent we need to understand these technologies.

In summary:

Silicon based anodes promise better battery capacity and better safety, but the problem of swelling MUST be addressed.

Talga’s Talnode-Si product seems to be the best on the market due to advantages of employing Graphene. But this may add to its expense.
 
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OK so I have just had a look at the short reports per the ASX and these are the figures so far this month. Remember these are the Gross Shorts

01/07 46,864
04/07 34,491
05/07 19,517
06/07 63,149
07/07 18,700
08/07 25,873
11/07 59,761

Over at Shortman we get this Nett


2,848,450 short on 1 July falling to 2,784,624 short on 6 July

How long will they keep those positions open when the selling volume is well down ?
 
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cosors

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Unfortunately behind a paywall (3h old). But!

The County Administrative Board is positive about graphite mining in Vittangi

Talga plans to build an open pit to mine graphite in Nunasvaara south.

Talga plans to build an open pit to mine graphite in Nunasvaara south.
Photo: Maria Unga
https://kuriren.nu/bli-prenumerant/artikel/lzw7enql
 
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Semmel

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I wouldn't worry about the shorts. They are immaterial at this stage. Look at NVX for comparison, shorts reduced from 3.5% to 1% recently all the while the share price was falling nearly 40% at the same period.

Trading volume on TLG is very low at moment because no one seems to be interested in trading it. But it could pick up considerably without a problem. I bet shorts could cover within a day and not breaking a sweat or shoot the stock to the moon. Maybe a 10% to 20% move, which is big for a stock, but we are going up and down 7% regularly now so 20% would not be such a big event.
 
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I wouldn't worry about the shorts. They are immaterial at this stage. Look at NVX for comparison, shorts reduced from 3.5% to 1% recently all the while the share price was falling nearly 40% at the same period.

Trading volume on TLG is very low at moment because no one seems to be interested in trading it. But it could pick up considerably without a problem. I bet shorts could cover within a day and not breaking a sweat or shoot the stock to the moon. Maybe a 10% to 20% move, which is big for a stock, but we are going up and down 7% regularly now so 20% would not be such a big event.
Yeah I'm not overly concerned either.

If you look at Syrah which is > 5% short at the moment you have a situation where UBS is lodging Substantial Shareholder Notices quite regularly as they go up and down the 5% threshold.

I find it interesting that someone has built up a reasonably large position albeit <1% compared to the current daily pattern. The daily pattern currently seems to reflect a general fear of shorting TLG just in case a big announcement pops up.

If I had to bet as to who our shorter is I'd say Regal Investments. Remember when they took up a >5% holding (Substantial Shareholder Notice is required if its by borrowing) then they suddenly disappeared from the following Top 20.

It would be nice to see a new Top 20 by the way
 
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OK I am going to throw this question out there LOL

So we have an EVA plant sending off samples to (as per most recent announcement)

Customers by type:

11 Automotive companies

37 Battery manufacturers and associated value chain players


With a limited initial production of 19 Kt per annum obviously if just say 5 car companies are interested then surely they would need let's say 5K pa as a minimum if there is 50kg in each car (100,000 cars). Or something like that

I would have thought that MT would have some very keen customers by now and would not need to "cast the net"" so wide. i.e. He would decline for the time being sending out too many samples to too many potential OEMs.

So should I conclude that MT wants to create a frenzy of interest with multiple OEMs begging for offtakes to keep pricing at a premium ?

or

Should I conclude that perhaps Talnode C is not as good as we think hence the large number of samples being sent out ?

Anyway just throwing it out there
 

Semmel

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OK I am going to throw this question out there LOL

So we have an EVA plant sending off samples to (as per most recent announcement)

Customers by type:

11 Automotive companies

37 Battery manufacturers and associated value chain players


With a limited initial production of 19 Kt per annum obviously if just say 5 car companies are interested then surely they would need let's say 5K pa as a minimum if there is 50kg in each car (100,000 cars). Or something like that

I would have thought that MT would have some very keen customers by now and would not need to "cast the net"" so wide. i.e. He would decline for the time being sending out too many samples to too many potential OEMs.

So should I conclude that MT wants to create a frenzy of interest with multiple OEMs begging for offtakes to keep pricing at a premium ?

or

Should I conclude that perhaps Talnode C is not as good as we think hence the large number of samples being sent out ?

Anyway just throwing it out there

It's a possibility, but i don't think very likely. Of course, Talga wants as many potential customers as possible for future expansion deals as well. Also, individual offers might come with various aspects of other benefits. I don't think he wants to have customers in a bidding war, it's just prudent company strategy to have as many potential customers as possible with any type of product quality.

Though it's one of the key information we don't have. I'm asking for proof of talnode-C quality/performance for a long time now.
 
It's a possibility, but i don't think very likely. Of course, Talga wants as many potential customers as possible for future expansion deals as well. Also, individual offers might come with various aspects of other benefits. I don't think he wants to have customers in a bidding war, it's just prudent company strategy to have as many potential customers as possible with any type of product quality.

Though it's one of the key information we don't have. I'm asking for proof of talnode-C quality/performance for a long time now.
Though it's one of the key information we don't have. I'm asking for proof of talnode-C quality/performance for a long time now.

Yes I know. All we really have are expressions of interest and a "scarily good" quote from MT at the CSIRO thingy. I think that quote was in the same context.

Although we did have that motor cycle company announcement 26 March 2019 ?


Note that in that announcement this.....

Talga staff will be presenting recently published performance results of TalnodeTM products at the International Battery Seminar in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida on 28 March Australian time.

Why can I not find that over at Talgagroup.com.au

Otherwise how much is PSG per tonne ?..................Certainly nor US$10,000 plus
 
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cosors

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I stumbled across this in my general research. Perhaps things we don't realise also come up. I'm not saying there's anything to it or fuelling speculation but the statement is quite specific I think. Of course, the Nordic Bank has already registered. But where does this bank want to invest? Unfortunately, once again behind a paywall. But I have made a request to maybe solve the problem and be able to subscribe. Just today, another apparently very interesting article about us appeared. Link
Here is the snippet (I have my translation difficulties with the headline):

"Industry summit wants to see more mines and expanded rivers​

The reason why we are here now is mainly the connection to the mining industry. In addition, everyone wants to invest in sustainability today. Northern Sweden is very interesting there, says Lars Olof Nilsson, who works for the Finnish investment bank Evli.

"The reason why we are here now is mainly the connection to the mining industry. In addition, everyone wants to invest in sustainability today. Northern Sweden is very interesting there," says Lars Olof Nilsson, who works for the Finnish investment bank Evli."
https://nsd.se/bli-prenumerant/artikel/rm75wd8r
 
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cosors

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Since it is rather general and related to the general topic of discussion, I place the article here. It seems that the wave can no longer be held back.

"The Norwegian battery giant wants to build in Sweden​

Norwegian Freyr Battery plans to build several large battery factories by 2030 and one of them may end up in Svenljunga in western Sweden. This is stated by the CEO and co-founder Tom Einar Jensen, who in an interview talks about the listed upstart's multi-billion plans inspired by Swedish Northvolt.
Updated: July 7, 2022, 2:39 p.m.Published: July 4, 2022, 3:31 p.m.

1657703341133.png

Norwegian Freyr Battery, which was started with inspiration from Swedish Northvolt, is planning multi-billion investments in several large battery factories. The illustration is an early concept sketch for the company's first gigabrik 1 and 2 to be built in Mo i Rana in Norway.

"It is true that Svenljunga is one of the places we are evaluating for a possible establishment of a large gigabyte for lithium-ion batteries," says Tom Einar Jensen to Di.
However, he does not leave any further information about, for example, the size, number of employees, the schedule, or the probability that the giant project will be lost.

What is your message to those who hope that you will build a new large battery factory in Svenljunga?
“That there is reason for optimism. But at the same time it is important to emphasize that we are in an early phase and that there are no decisions. There are many parameters to evaluate and which must be met before a final decision can be made ", says Tom Einar Jensen, and adds that he hopes that the company will be able to provide further information about its possible plans in Sweden later this year.

It was a few days before Christmas Eve last year that the news came that a foreign listed battery manufacturer was planning for a new, possibly large battery factory in an industrial area in Svenljunga municipality, a few miles from Borås . The news attracted a lot of attention in Sweden as well as hopes for multi-billion investments and several thousand new jobs. Norwegian Freyr Battery then confirmed in very scanty terms that it was the company that was behind the plans. But since then, the company has been completely silent about the project. Until now when the CEO of Freyr Battery gives his first major interview in the Swedish media.

Freyr Battery was started as late as 2018, by a number of people with a background in, among other things, the Norwegian oil and gas industry. And one of the sources of inspiration was the Swedish battery manufacturer Northvolt.

“They showed that it is possible to build this type of large-scale future industry here in the Nordic region as well. And if the Swedes know, we can, we reasoned as good Norwegians ", says Tom Einar Jensen and laughs.

“We are convinced that battery manufacturing will grow enormously and become a very large and important industry. And our vision is for Freyr Battery to be one of the large companies in Europe that will become a significant player in this large and fast-growing market, ”says Tom Einar Jensen.

Like Northvolt, Freyr Battery has big growth ambitions and a focus on building as environmentally friendly batteries as possible.

"Electricity is the new oil when the world has to switch and replace fossil energy to cope with the climate threat. And batteries that are produced with fossil-free energy are then an absolute prerequisite for success both to eliminate emissions and because the electricity, from wind and solar, must be able to be stored in order to then be used where it is needed, ”says Tom Einar Jensen.

And the Nordic region, which among other things has plenty of renewable electricity for energy-intensive battery production and high technical competence and access to important raw materials, is well placed to become one of 2-3 areas globally with large-scale battery production, he adds.

"Today, the market is dominated by Asian battery companies such as Panasonic, LGChem and more. However, we believe that a few American and European players can manage to challenge, including us and Northvolt ", says Tom Einar Jensen.

To cope with this, it is necessary, among other things, to be able to expand production capacity quickly and on a large scale. Freyr Battery has recently begun construction of its first factory in Mo i Rana in northern Norway. But that's just the starting shot. To meet the expansion plans, an additional number of battery factories and investments are required for many tens of billions of kronor, according to the CEO.

“Our goal is to have an annual production capacity of 100 GWh by 2030. It will require several factories. In addition to Mo i Rana, we have also announced possible facilities in Vaasa in Finland and in North America. And as I said, we also evaluate Svenljunga in Sweden ", says Tom Einar Jenssen.

Unlike Northvolt, Freyr Battery, which is legally based in Luxembourg, chose to go public early. In July 2021, the company was listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

“We could have chosen to be private. But battery production is enormously capital-intensive and by being listed on the world's largest capital market, we were able to quickly raise large amounts of capital and at the same time have a number of heavy owners, ”says Tom Einar Jensen.

Of the more than 700 million dollars that the company received in the issue, 525 million now remains (corresponding to just over 5 billion Swedish kronor, Di's remark).

“We have enough capital to be able to start realizing our plans. We will need to raise more capital over time, but believe that the interest is great ", says Tom Einar Jensen.

"And all Swedes who are interested in gaining exposure to this exciting and fast-growing new industry are most welcome to become shareholders in Freyr," he adds.

However, Freyr Battery has had a tough start to the stock market journey and this year the share has fallen sharply in value."
https://www.di.se/nyheter/norska-batteribjassen-vill-bygga-i-sverige/
 
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Semmel

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The one thing that i don't like is take people's word for it. If there are numbers and tests to back it up: please publish it. If you can't publish it, tell us why. I trust Mark, but I still want to do my own due diligence and this is an open wound for me. I would like to see:
* Volumetric capacity
* Gravimetric capacity
* Charge retention over 1000 cycles
* Charging speed (if possible)
 
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WOW........................one hour into trading on the ASX and not a single trade yet. Never seen that before.

Looking at Sell/Buy and a purchase of 100,000 would send TLG to $1.49.

92 Buyers of 454,158 and 34 Sellers of 153,152. Lowest Sell Price is $1.14

I hope our Short Sellers are wearing brown pants as they are going to need a change of underwear soon.
 
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Let's have another look at the Gross shorts this month. Look at yesterday it fell off a cliff

01/07 46,864
04/07 34,491
05/07 19,517
06/07 63,149
07/07 18,700
08/07 25,873
11/07 59,761
12/07 60,572
13/07 3,586

Shortman has us short 2.8M as of last Thursday 07/07. Looking at the Seller resistance today someone might be in trouble
 
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Three hours of trading and only 40,274 have crossed.

2.5 to 1 Buyers to Sellers

happy women's football GIF by Together #WePlayStrong
 
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Semmel

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You need a catalyst to send the stock flying before the shorts are in any sort of danger. As soon as the stock starts flying you get lots of volume. Its a nice comforting blanket to look at the shorts vs. daily traded Volume, but in my experience in the last few years, it's almost completely meaningless.

The situation would be completely different if you had a rising share price in multiple of 10% on very low volume. Then the shorts night be in danger because they have rising interest rates with rising share prices. But any time i have seen such movement in the stock, the volume 10x or more all of the sudden and shorts just melt away. In a situation like ours, the shorts just sit it out. There is no need for them to cover in this market.
 
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You need a catalyst to send the stock flying before the shorts are in any sort of danger. As soon as the stock starts flying you get lots of volume. Its a nice comforting blanket to look at the shorts vs. daily traded Volume, but in my experience in the last few years, it's almost completely meaningless.

The situation would be completely different if you had a rising share price in multiple of 10% on very low volume. Then the shorts night be in danger because they have rising interest rates with rising share prices. But any time i have seen such movement in the stock, the volume 10x or more all of the sudden and shorts just melt away. In a situation like ours, the shorts just sit it out. There is no need for them to cover in this market.
Next catalyst is the Vittangi upgrade due in August I think.

Don't forget shorters have to pay interest on the value of the shares they have borrowed. The SP was around $1.58 ish when the additional 2 million shorts began to be opened. So the spike to $1.19 means they lost quite a bit of money today.

If we look at Shortman the shorts started really hard around 14 April when SP was $1.58 then continued shorting all the way down to SP $1.05 on 23 June. So quite a few positions are now under water
 
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