Talga Valuation Model

[Semmel]

I decided to flesh out the Talga valuation model a bit more. By now, almost nothing is left from the original Affenhorst mode. I decided to break out the individual projects. So far, its Nunasavaara open pit mine and the Niska expansion as separate projects. I have not yet started on Talnode-Si or Talphene cathode additives or the recycling business. We basically know nothing about it. And it looks like the market is not pricing these in at all at moment. Ill post individual posts for each case.

 

[Semmel]

This is only Nunasvaara:

This is Nunsavaara plus Niska.. it becomes totally nutty at that point because the profit from Niska are so much larger that the discounted value to today is dominated by that expansion. I used 400kt/year prodiction by the way.

Not totally happy about the structure yet, so will post the full model when its done. For the moment, I am out of time. Here are both nunasvaara and Niska models:

 

[Diogenese]

Hi Semmel,

Even though you demolished my Tardus theory about Talnode-Si, I still see it as being our major product line.

The market will demand the better-performing batteries.

It will have a significantly higher cost of production because of the additional pocessing needed to produce it.


The patent describes the production process, but a picture is worth a thousand words:

WO2020261194A1 SILICON AND GRAPHITE CONTAINING COMPOSITE MATERIAL AND METHOD FOR PRODUCING SAME 20190618

This article is from a couple of years ago, before our legal hiatus.

Talga silicon anode demand drives progress - The Graphene Council

https://www.thegraphenecouncil.org/blogpost/1501180/482480/Talga-silicon-anode-demand-drives-progress

Posted By Terrance Barkan, Monday, December 19, 2022

Recent qualification and pilot trials completed with a global EV manufacturer confirmed Talnode®-Si performance under commercial cell manufacturing conditions. Li-ion battery cells containing 9% Talnode®-Si, manufactured in battery tolling and in-house development facilities, boosted battery energy capacity by ~40%. Test results of first cycle efficiency and 500 cycle life to date exceed customer targets at this stage of development.

Test results of first cycle efficiency and 500 cycle life to date exceed customer targets at this stage of development. Following positive customer tests and feedback, in accordance with its commercial strategy Talga is expanding its existing pilot line in Rudolstadt, Germany, to produce greater quantities of Talnode®-Si for commercial qualification. Commissioning of the expanded pilot line is to be completed in Q1 2023. In parallel, the Company is conducting feasibility work towards accelerating commercial Talnode®-Si production options. Negotiations with leading global EV manufacturers regarding supply volumes has commenced and production site location selection in Europe is well underway.
...
Silicon anodes help increase the performance of a variety of battery chemistries, from lithium iron phosphate (LFP) to NMC / NCA type. In an EV, depending on the vehicle, a 10% addition of silicon to the battery anode can translate into an additional ~15% range over traditional Li-ion batteries. Alternatively, silicon-boosted batteries can be made smaller or lighter, providing benefits for not only EV’s but demanding applications such as electric aviation, race cars, marine craft and drones.

Talga notes significant and rising market interest in scaling production for silicon anode outside China by global OEMs and battery makers. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecast the 2030 anode market share for silicon anode to be 5% or around 150,000tpa.


It is interesting that the tests on unadulterated Talnode-Si (without added graphite) produced 5 times the capacity of graphite alone. I guess that shareholders will be able to afford the 100% T-Si option (especially if they also hold BRN shares).

 

[Semmel]

Hi Dio,

Sure, I will get to Talnode-Si.. its on the list, see some hidden layers of the valuation model:

When I said we know almost nothing about it is because we dont know:
CapEx, Financing method, volume, timeline, cost to manufacture, price, etc.. I think we had rumors of price being around 15.000 USD per t and volume being much smaller than Talnode-C. But that is not enough to go by. Of course I can pull all these out of my ass, but then the model is just pure speculation and I can make it any value to Talga that I want. When we get data, I for sure add it as a project. Same as all the other items. But for now, we dont know enough.

 

[Semmel]

Calling @WheresTheMonkey .. Am I right that you have experience with this stuff? Anyone else with experience, I am happy to listen!

I struggle to model the dept. At moment, I model it like this:
1. Dept is issued at the beginning of the project and runs a fix amount of time
2. Talga is required to pay back the dept plus interest from year 1 of issue. Meaning.. if the dept is issued beginning 2025, Talga would be paying 1/n + interest end of 2025, where n is the number of years the dept runs

So.. how is this actually done in reality though? Does Talga take all the dept at once, or maybe half of it year 1 and other half year 2? Does it run for 2 years without repayment and then? Or is Talga only required to pay the interest each year and repays the loan in full at the end? I HAVE NO IDEA how this is done in cooperate environments. Can someone enlighten me?

Dept service is so important to me because it is the key driver of whether talga has cash in the bank to run the business during project build out or whether they actually run a negative number in the bank..