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Semmel

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Courtesy to GVan:


* Shows ore from the mine
* Mark: "Probably within 12 month you can start construction. It would take about 2 years to finish building [...] So within 1 to 3 years until you are producing material in scale, with 3 years before you are fully developed." --- I understand that as start of production at low volume in 2028, and full volume in 2031.
* "Ultimately, who are your customers?" .. Mark: "Battery manufacturers." (*dhuuu*)
* Mark (paraphrasing): Chinese export restrictions will drive customers to us, in combination with green laws and support from EU regulations such as the battery passport.

Must say.. the timeline is a bit disappointing.. I was hoping it would be faster. Thx Sweden for making this as hard and long as possible I guess.. I bet China (with all its flaws) will take less than 3 years where we need 10 to 12. Europe doesn't stand a chance in the battery business if CRMA doesn't have the desired impact. This includes the Sami.
 
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mpk1980

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China has withdrawn its ambitions with the insolvency of NV. Job done.
Sweden has also built up a bulwark against the Chinese anode plant.
If I trust the statements of employees, I can assume that China sabotaged NV with their machines and the poor installation (NV's quality problems...).
In the general thread I posted another possibility with Bosh or Mercedes.

_____
"Probably within 12 month you can start construction. It would take about 2 years to finish building ..."

There will be a ramp-up. And one of the three identical production lines in the new facility is already in operation at Swerim.
He has become very careful. Only understandable.
So what will the EVA plant be used for? Continued piloting or could it produce anode for 3C markets?
 
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So what will the EVA plant be used for? Continued piloting or could it produce anode for 3C markets?
If the EVA plant could be used to produce anode material for any markets at a profit, then Mark would certainly have dropped this possibility in one of the webinars. I can't remember any statement in this direction.
 
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Finally some honesty about the ramp-up period. I've been saying this for 12 months that the timelines didn't add up.
Until now every message has been 18-24 months construction and implied full nameplate production immediately. It never made any sense.

Anyone want to venture a guess as to why the anode refinery wasn't included in the CRM strategic project application?
 

Semmel

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I know you guys believe that since forever but I keep claiming that the EVA is not capable of producing industrial scale volumes. It proves the process as it is analogous and it produces volumes for testing and verification. But it does not provide the volume to the tune of 1/3rd of the factory. I cannot remember Talga claiming that ever. I think you invented this.
 
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cosors

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I know you guys believe that since forever but I keep claiming that the EVA is not capable of producing industrial scale volumes. It proves the process as it is analogous and it produces volumes for testing and verification. But it does not provide the volume to the tune of 1/3rd of the factory. I cannot remember Talga claiming that ever. I think you invented this.
It is written somewhere. Either in one of the EVA announcements or in the plan for the factory.
I'm not making this up. A search here in the forum has so far been in vain.
I'm thinking about whether I should look for it or leave it at that. Over the years, we know how difficult it is to get practical details.
We have only learnt about many things through public documents from the municipality. It's also possible that it was there somewhere.
I'll see if I feel like looking for it.
Actually, it's the same as always - wait and see what happens. I've become a pro at waiting 😅
 
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cosors

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It is written somewhere. Either in one of the EVA announcements or in the plan for the factory.
I'm not making this up. A search here in the forum has so far been in vain.
I'm thinking about whether I should look for it or leave it at that. Over the years, we know how difficult it is to get practical details.
We have only learnt about many things through public documents from the municipality. It's also possible that it was there somewhere.
I'll see if I feel like looking for it.
Actually, it's the same as always - wait and see what happens. I've become a pro at waiting 😅
With headings like this, it's a little easier to wait.

"Over 400 gigafactories in 2030 pipeline, but overcapacity fears loom​

There are now 401 gigafactories planned to be in operation by 2030, representing almost nine terawatt hours of annual production capacity, according to Benchmark. The 400th gigafactory to be added to the pipeline is Tata Group’s £4 billion ($5.2 billion), 40 gigawatt-hour UK-based facility due to begin production in 2026. While the pipeline highlights the […]" rbPW
 
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cosors

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It is written somewhere. Either in one of the EVA announcements or in the plan for the factory.
I'm not making this up. A search here in the forum has so far been in vain.
I'm thinking about whether I should look for it or leave it at that. Over the years, we know how difficult it is to get practical details.
We have only learnt about many things through public documents from the municipality. It's also possible that it was there somewhere.
I'll see if I feel like looking for it.
Actually, it's the same as always - wait and see what happens. I've become a pro at waiting 😅
I seem to have got the info from an interview article. I used to have a subscription to the local newspapers and have reproduced the content for you so that there are no copyright problems. I have found this reference so far:

Jul 18, 2022
"Just a little info from the articles, so again just in my words and without warranty.

The EVA oven was/is made in Germany. What's more interesting is that it's the same as the ones that were supposed to be installed in the factory. And 3 of them. From this you can now calculate the capacity of the current EVA.)"

But that definitely explains why only I seem to remember it.

_____

Framtidsfabriken
 
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Rayster

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I once asked MT at an AGM if there would ever be revenue generated from the EVA and his answer was “yes. We can’t keep giving it away for free”. I would like to think that once the deals are done the early ramping of output could be achieved using the EVA plant.
 
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Semmel

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This article makes me a bit more confident in Talgas future. Its geo politics, allright, but it lays out all the points that made me invest in Talga in the first place, adapted to our current time. There are some quite good statements in there and graphite is even mentioned alongside lithium on this national floor. That is a big righting of reality for us! Graphite always was just as important as Lithium but got sidelined and forgotten by almost everyone. Good that it is placed at the same level here! More of that please! :)

 
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Semmel

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I seem to have got the info from an interview article. I used to have a subscription to the local newspapers and have reproduced the content for you so that there are no copyright problems. I have found this reference so far:

Jul 18, 2022
"Just a little info from the articles, so again just in my words and without warranty.

The EVA oven was/is made in Germany. What's more interesting is that it's the same as the ones that were supposed to be installed in the factory. And 3 of them. From this you can now calculate the capacity of the current EVA.)"

But that definitely explains why only I seem to remember it.

_____

Framtidsfabriken

Yes, the EVA has one oven of the same type that are installed in the factory. We knew that. But the hidden assumption you do here is that the oven is determining the production rate. Which might not be the case. Its just one part of the equipment. Further, the rest of the production line might be much more manual (and expensive) than the factory will, so overall pace might be much slower, even though its technically equivalent.

I once asked MT at an AGM if there would ever be revenue generated from the EVA and his answer was “yes. We can’t keep giving it away for free”. I would like to think that once the deals are done the early ramping of output could be achieved using the EVA plant.

This is understood. It means that the test samples we give out are payed by the testing company. However, it sais nothing about the volume. ;)
 
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cosors

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Yes, the EVA has one oven of the same type that are installed in the factory. We knew that. But the hidden assumption you do here is that the oven is determining the production rate. Which might not be the case. Its just one part of the equipment. Further, the rest of the production line might be much more manual (and expensive) than the factory will, so overall pace might be much slower, even though its technically equivalent.



This is understood. It means that the test samples we give out are payed by the testing company. However, it sais nothing about the volume. ;)
I see the oven as a bottleneck and the slowest process step. I think it's only logical to base the production rate of a production line on the slowest step.
But the debate is pointless anyway. We just have to keep waiting. Then maybe we'll find out.
 
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Semmel

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I see the oven as a bottleneck and the slowest process step. I think it's only logical to base the production rate of a production line on the slowest step.
But the debate is pointless anyway. We just have to keep waiting. Then maybe we'll find out.

Thats exactly my point. Its your interpretation. Its a sensible one, but an assumption nevertheless.
 
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Semmel

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This article makes me a bit more confident in Talgas future. Its geo politics, allright, but it lays out all the points that made me invest in Talga in the first place, adapted to our current time. There are some quite good statements in there and graphite is even mentioned alongside lithium on this national floor. That is a big righting of reality for us! Graphite always was just as important as Lithium but got sidelined and forgotten by almost everyone. Good that it is placed at the same level here! More of that please! :)


Just found GVan has translated it nicely (so you dont have to) om HC. Thx @Gvan ! Text from him below. Its worth a read in full.


Opinion piece from Ebba Busch. I've highlighted the important parts in blue, but the whole piece is worthwhile reading.


"DN DEBATE


In a time of global unrest, the arms race is underway. In this situation, Europe cannot sit idly by—waiting out the war in Ukraine or a new U.S. presidential election. Sweden must strengthen both its welfare and national security. Only with long-term higher growth can we secure our independence and freedom, writes Ebba Busch of the Christian Democrats.


Sweden is in the midst of an era of rearmament. At record speed, we must reinforce both the military and civil defense to meet security threats and adapt to new global rules. Sweden must act with confidence and force. This will require borrowing, but also for the state to use its economic strength to strengthen our competitiveness in the long run.

If Sweden is to continue affording strong welfare and be able to defend its borders, long-term higher growth is essential. That is the only way to secure our independence and freedom.

The new American leadership has rapidly overturned the foundations of international relations and global stability. The handling of Ukraine, tariffs, the peculiar spat over Greenland, and short-term statements risk damaging trust and cooperation among allies.

Yet, it’s undeniable that the American administration makes some valid points. Since the end of World War II, the U.S. has carried a major responsibility for Europe’s security—virtually every president from Eisenhower onward has urged Europe to strengthen its defense. After Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Barack Obama did not hesitate to call some of his European allies “free riders.”

We need to strengthen the business sector, where Swedish companies, energy, and mining can turn us into power players.

We should not give Trump excuses or a free pass to abandon existing agreements. In facing a transactional leader across the Atlantic and a leader across the Baltic who has launched a full-scale invasion war on European soil, both Sweden and Europe must respond from a position of strength.

We need to reinforce our defense. We need to bolster our business sector—where Swedish companies, energy, and mining industries can make us global players. And we must strengthen societal cohesion. A strong community is a safeguard against external forces trying to influence, spread disinformation, and sow unrest for their own gain.

1. The EU needs brave leadership.

That’s why it’s tiresome to see fearful and reluctant EU politicians. Europe cannot take the passive role of waiting out the war in Ukraine and a new U.S. election.

Now is the time for the right priorities and to defend the right values. The EU and Sweden must review rules created for eternal peace—rules that have led to unnecessary obstacles and time-consuming processes.

Sweden should not sit and wait. If used correctly, our resources can lay the foundation for strategic independence and strengthen Sweden’s position in the world. We cannot fool ourselves into thinking that 3 or 4 percent of GDP in defense spending is enough while control over key resources lies in, for example, China.

China supplies almost all of our lithium and graphite—raw materials that exist in Europe. Demand for critical raw materials will increase by 500% by 2030, with China controlling 70% of global production of metals needed for the green transition. The EU’s previous dependence on Russian gas pales in comparison.

Sweden sits on bedrock with the potential to contribute to greater European independence. That is a serious responsibility and an economic opportunity.

3. Secure the defense industry.

Sweden’s defense industry must be given the conditions to contribute to both greater defense capability and economic growth. We have a tradition and strong companies that the Christian Democrats will prioritize even further. Sweden must build and secure the ability to produce and lead in defense-industrial development.

Invest heavily in the future and security.

It wasn’t long ago that the Christian Democrats stood alone among the right-wing bloc in pushing to expand the limits of economic policy. At the same time, the Social Democrats consistently said no.

Changing fiscal frameworks and accepting a higher national debt is a prerequisite for success. Even if we allowed for public debt equivalent to 40% of GDP, we’d still be well below the EU’s 60% ceiling.

Last week, within two days, the government announced that up to SEK 700 billion is now being allocated to essential and strategic future projects—investments in defense and energy for the coming decades. The energy component consists of loans that will be repaid to the state.

The connection is clear: Without energy, we have no industry. Without industry, we have no defense. Without defense, we have no sovereignty.

Without the Christian Democrats’ push to create room for investment, Sweden would still lack the tools to rearm across all fronts. These tools must now continue to be used.

5. Growth-oriented policy.

This is absolutely critical: if we’re to maintain welfare and expand military units, economic growth is essential. To achieve this, we need policies that support innovation and entrepreneurship—not more obstacles and regulations.

Industrial investments are happening all across the country. For every percentage point GDP grows, tax revenues increase by about SEK 30 billion. The greatest risk now is for Swedish politicians to get stuck in fabricated conflicts.

The fight for functional healthcare, a dignified old age, and a safe childhood—as well as ensuring families have money in their wallets—does not contradict the need to protect what we’ve built.

If a conservative government fails to secure both defense and welfare, these two goals will soon oppose each other in both rhetoric and reality.

We know that Social Democratic policies and their governing base would lead to higher taxes to fund a growing defense—but at the cost of a shrinking economy. That is a frightening scenario.

Magdalena Andersson (S) still deserves respect for seizing the opportunity and acting when politically and pragmatically necessary.The coalition parties are now taking responsibility for Sweden in a very difficult time. One might mock how the Social Democrats resisted NATO membership until the very end—only to fast-track a U-turn within their own party.

But Magdalena Andersson (S) still deserves respect for acting decisively when it was politically feasible and necessary.Protecting our country—standing strong against threats and aggression—is about defending our values, our way of life, and our freedom. Lives and property.Preparing for the worst is a peacekeeping effort. A politician who does not understand the need to protect what we hold dear cannot be entrusted with leading our country through uncertain times."

https://www.dn.se/debatt/hojda-skatter-racker-inte-for-att-rusta-sverige/
 
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cosors

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I will still be allowed to use my engineer's head after all.)

Of course, I have to assume that a CEO will have such an important plant designed as close as possible to series production, preferably even identical in construction, so that the results are reproducible and the plant is not worthless after the factory is built or money is thrown out the window.
If someone here uses figures to calculate the theoretical value of the company, then that's just one interpretation. They can certainly be interesting.
It is irrelevant what we are debating. We have to wait and see.
 
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